New ownership .... check
New front office staff and GM etc. .... check
New coaching staff ..... check

Now its time to get down to business and improve the on-ice product by this team.
- OttawaB

I agree. Now that things are no longer up in the air, I don't want them to do any major roster changes. I really want to see if what we have now is enough to get us back in the playoffs.

What are Sens missing to be legit contenders (there's a lot)

High Caliber Leadership: Tkachuk, Stutzle, Sanderson will be the leadership group of this team (among others) from 2025-2030; that's if they stay here

Goaltending: Unless Korpisalo has a huge bounce back season, the old hope for the Sens is Soogard. I ahve more hope in Leevi Merilainen at this point. Otherwise the Sens still need capable goaltending or they won't make the playoffs - and you can take that to the bank.

Coaching Structure: Defensive coverage and everyone being held accountable (BUYING IN)

Right Side D: If Artem Zub injures himself fighting a bear in Russia, this franchise is gutted on the right side of this team. Bernard Docker, Hamonic, Guenette is disgusting respectfully. They are 6th/7th D-men on most teams, if they even get to play in the NHL. They need huge upgrades here and it has to involve 1 or 1 free agent signings.

#2 Center: Josh Norris not staying healthy or being the 30 goal scorer he is is a HUGE disappointment. It's frustrating enough what fans have had to endure loosing Formenton, then Pinto for 2 seasons in a row, AND add to that 1st lost for Dadonov - it's time the Sens catch a break. 9.5M for Norris, 9.5M! This guy is making more money than Leon Draisaitl this seasons. It's beyond frustrating and shocking. Big decision like we all know. I like Grieg more than Pinto, as a complete player and a player I like in the playoffs. But Pinto and Grieg down the middle won't be enough to be serious contenders, no matter how good Stutzle is. The rest of the team would have to be almost flawless, especially with 32 teams now.

Depth Forwards: Players in bottom 6 are not just fillers. They also can't just be "good players" like Joseph, Kastelic, or Kelly. They need to OUTWORK, OUTPLAY the bottom 6 of other teams more often that not. Either that or be excellent shutdown line against the other team best players

*People will remember Pronger, Niedermyer, Selanne, Getzlaf, Perry, and Gigure when they won their cup against Ottawa in 2007 (and rightly so) but Travis Moen, Samuel Pahlsson, and I believe it was Rob Niedermayer on that line as well. They were so instrumental in them winning the cup. Ironically enough Travis Green played 7 games with the team that season before being moved to Toronto in Jan 2007

What are Sens missing to be legit contenders (there's a lot)

High Caliber Leadership: Tkachuk, Stutzle, Sanderson will be the leadership group of this team (among others) from 2025-2030; that's if they stay here

Goaltending: Unless Korpisalo has a huge bounce back season, the old hope for the Sens is Soogard. I ahve more hope in Leevi Merilainen at this point. Otherwise the Sens still need capable goaltending or they won't make the playoffs - and you can take that to the bank.

Coaching Structure: Defensive coverage and everyone being held accountable (BUYING IN)

Right Side D: If Artem Zub injures himself fighting a bear in Russia, this franchise is gutted on the right side of this team. Bernard Docker, Hamonic, Guenette is disgusting respectfully. They are 6th/7th D-men on most teams, if they even get to play in the NHL. They need huge upgrades here and it has to involve 1 or 1 free agent signings.

#2 Center: Josh Norris not staying healthy or being the 30 goal scorer he is is a HUGE disappointment. It's frustrating enough what fans have had to endure loosing Formenton, then Pinto for 2 seasons in a row, AND add to that 1st lost for Dadonov - it's time the Sens catch a break. 9.5M for Norris, 9.5M! This guy is making more money than Leon Draisaitl this seasons. It's beyond frustrating and shocking. Big decision like we all know. I like Grieg more than Pinto, as a complete player and a player I like in the playoffs. But Pinto and Grieg down the middle won't be enough to be serious contenders, no matter how good Stutzle is. The rest of the team would have to be almost flawless, especially with 32 teams now.

Depth Forwards: Players in bottom 6 are not just fillers. They also can't just be "good players" like Joseph, Kastelic, or Kelly. They need to OUTWORK, OUTPLAY the bottom 6 of other teams more often that not. Either that or be excellent shutdown line against the other team best players

*People will remember Pronger, Niedermyer, Selanne, Getzlaf, Perry, and Gigure when they won their cup against Ottawa in 2007 (and rightly so) but Travis Moen, Samuel Pahlsson, and I believe it was Rob Niedermayer on that line as well. They were so instrumental in them winning the cup. Ironically enough Travis Green played 7 games with the team that season before being moved to Toronto in Jan 2007
- AlfieisKing

Quick note .... Norris does not make $9.5 million . He only makes $7.95 million per year AAV. So he does not make more then Draisaitl. And if we were to all take off our recency bias goggles and remember back to the day Draisaitl was signed to this current contract by Edmonton, all is not how it seems.
2014-15 .... 9 points in 37 games
2015-2016 ..... 51 points in 72 games
2016-2017 .... 77 points in 82 games
Then Edmonton signed him to an 8 year $8.5 million contract.

One good year ...... hmmmmm. Sound familiar?

At the time, Draisaitl had 1 good year and then Edmonton signed him to his current contract at $8.5 million per year. Remember ... only 1 good year. The fan base and media excoriated Edmonton for signing the kid to such a lucrative contract. They were brutalized in and by the media at the time. So be careful when you look back with rose coloured glasses at these early contracts. This example doesn't fit the narrative you are trying to portray.

Quick note .... Norris does not make $9.5 million . He only makes $7.95 million per year AAV. So he does not make more then Draisaitl. And if we were to all take off our recency bias goggles and remember back to the day Draisaitl was signed to this current contract by Edmonton, all is not how it seems.
2014-15 .... 9 points in 37 games
2015-2016 ..... 51 points in 72 games
2016-2017 .... 77 points in 82 games
Then Edmonton signed him to an 8 year $8.5 million contract.

One good year ...... hmmmmm. Sound familiar?

At the time, Draisaitl had 1 good year and then Edmonton signed him to his current contract at $8.5 million per year. Remember ... only 1 good year. The fan base and media excoriated Edmonton for signing the kid to such a lucrative contract. They were brutalized in and by the media at the time. So be careful when you look back with rose coloured glasses at these early contracts. This example doesn't fit the narrative you are trying to portray.
- OttawaB

#1) Josh Norris makes 9.5M salary the next 3 years. Go check if you don't believe me. Leon makes 8M salary, 8.5 cap hit.

#2) Leon Draisaitl not only scored 77 points in that year (only second to McDavid's first 100 point season) but it was something else. That playoff run, Leon was unbelievable as a 21 year old. He lead the team by far with 16 points (almost doubling McDavid's 9 points) in 13 games. That clutch play is what made the Oilers say "we've seen enough" and signed one the greatest contracts of the past decade. The Oilers took a step back the next year missing the playoffs, which is a big part of the fans frustration

#3) Signing Josh Norris after he had an INSANE shot % was an amateur move - it was the length of the contract. 5-6 years at around 6.5-7M would've made a lot more sense.

Despite what some folks might want to believe Dorion did an outstanding job in getting ahead of the curve and setting a long term team salary structure in place. Very soon the NHL will be noticing these long term "value contracts" that the Sens signed with their best young players.

Stutzle 57 $8.35m
Tkachuk 59 $8.3m
Sanderson 67 $8.0m
Chabot 71 $7.95m
Norris 72 $7.95m
Giroux 113 $6.5m
Batherson 198 $4.975m
Zub 211 $4.6m
Chychrun 212 $4.6m
Korpisalo 251 $4.0m
Joseph 309 $2.95m

The best example of a badly structured top heavy cap is the Leafs.

Matthews 1 $13.25m
Nylander 7 $$11.5m
Tavares 10 $11.0m
Marner 12 $10.9m

The good news/bad news story for the Leafs is that the Marner and Tavares contracts expire at the end of this year and they can become UFAs.

One last thought on trying to understand why the buy out on the Josh Norris contract must be so appealing to the bean counters that manage the Sens cap.

If the Sens buy out Norris this summer they actually receive a cap credit of $102K in years 1, 2 and 3 of the buy out period. In year 4 the cap hit for the Sens is $647K (year 4) $1.547m (year 5) $2,397m (year 6). For the remaining 6 years of the buy out period the cap hit is fixed at $1.447m.

The only reason for not buying out Norris is that you need to believe he will be good value at $7.95m. Does anybody really want to take that risk?

My assumption is, if the Sens move to buy out Norris, his agent will insist that he qualifies for full pay on an LTIR option. Ironically, LTIR is an even better outcome for the Sens. I would assume it can go to some form of mediation process for a decision.

There are multiple teams hard pressed against the cap (Tampa, Florida, Vegas) who jump for a chance to take on the Norris contract as an LTIR or as part of a buyout regime.

They definitely need at least 1 physically imposing D in the lineup, and it's possible Kleven is ready to play this role. Even then, they'd still have a clear lack of physical/defensive play in their top-4, which they need to address with another top-4D. To give a sense of the physical gap between the Senators and a team doing well in the playoffs like the Oilers, look at their top-5D comparison:

Senators Top-5D
- Chabot - 6'2, 195, 44 Hits
- Sanderson - 6'3, 195, 49 Hits
- Zub - 6'2, 200, 139 Hits
- Chychrun - 6'2, 220, 72 Hits
- Bernard-Docker - 6'0, 190, 62 Hits

Oilers Top-5D
- Ekholm - 6'5, 225, 136 Hits
- Bouchard - 6'3, 195, 71 Hits
- Nurse - 6'4, 215, 168 Hits
- Ceci - 6'3, 210, 91 Hits
- Desharnais - 6'7, 225, 134 Hits

Basically, they're giving up 2.5" of height, 15lbs of weight, and nearly 50 hits... PER D-man.

Nobody's saying they have to bring back Gubranson, Brown, and Coburn, but if they could focus on bringing in a UFA like Matt Roy it would certainly check several boxes as a 6'3 RHD with defensive awareness and a physical edge. In fact, he finished 2nd in LAK last year for total ice time (20:54) and hits among D-men (152), and was 1st in SH ice time (2:51) and blocked shots (197). Bringing in a player like that to complement one of Chabot/Sanderson and moving Kleven onto the 3rd pairing would go a long way to making the D tougher to play against.
- khawk

All this post does is highlight how underrated Zub is and how scr***d the Sens would be if he got hurt.

EDIT: just saw the bear's thing. LOL

#1) Josh Norris makes 9.5M salary the next 3 years. Go check if you don't believe me. Leon makes 8M salary, 8.5 cap hit.

#2) Leon Draisaitl not only scored 77 points in that year (only second to McDavid's first 100 point season) but it was something else. That playoff run, Leon was unbelievable as a 21 year old. He lead the team by far with 16 points (almost doubling McDavid's 9 points) in 13 games. That clutch play is what made the Oilers say "we've seen enough" and signed one the greatest contracts of the past decade. The Oilers took a step back the next year missing the playoffs, which is a big part of the fans frustration

#3) Signing Josh Norris after he had an INSANE shot % was an amateur move - it was the length of the contract. 5-6 years at around 6.5-7M would've made a lot more sense.
- AlfieisKing

I have checked Norris's salary .... his AAV is $7.95 million .... the average salary over his 8 years. In his first year of this contract he made $5 million ... yes, he does have 3 years at $9.5 million, but his last year of the contract he will make $7 million . So what particular year do you want to examine. I could argue he was underpayed at one point when he made $5 million in the first year. I look at AAV .... the average salary over the life of the contract for an accurate guage .... unless you want to rewrite your thesis in 4 years when his salary drops below $8 million per year to eventually close out at $7 million.

I have checked Norris's salary .... his AAV is $7.95 million .... the average salary over his 8 years. In his first year of this contract he made $5 million ... yes, he does have 3 years at $9.5 million, but his last year of the contract he will make $7 million . So what particular year do you want to examine. I could argue he was underpayed at one point when he made $5 million in the first year. I look at AAV .... the average salary over the life of the contract for an accurate guage .... unless you want to rewrite your thesis in 4 years when his salary drops below $8 million per year to eventually close out at $7 million.
- OttawaB

Man, just look at the year. Josh Norris is making 8-9.5M - that's way too much.

It's hard to blame Norris for injuring himself, that said, he needs to show he's burning to get healthy and rehab that shoulder for good

Despite what some folks might want to believe Dorion did an outstanding job in getting ahead of the curve and setting a long term team salary structure in place. Very soon the NHL will be noticing these long term "value contracts" that the Sens signed with their best young players.

Stutzle 57 $8.35m
Tkachuk 59 $8.3m
Sanderson 67 $8.0m
Chabot 71 $7.95m
Norris 72 $7.95m
Giroux 113 $6.5m
Batherson 198 $4.975m
Zub 211 $4.6m
Chychrun 212 $4.6m
Korpisalo 251 $4.0m
Joseph 309 $2.95m

The best example of a badly structured top heavy cap is the Leafs.

Matthews 1 $13.25m
Nylander 7 $$11.5m
Tavares 10 $11.0m
Marner 12 $10.9m

The good news/bad news story for the Leafs is that the Marner and Tavares contracts expire at the end of this year and they can become UFAs.
- spatso

Leafs did a HORRIBLE job at cap management and giving too much to young players (that did nothing in the playoffs)

With Ottawa, we can debate which contract will end up being best between Tkachuk, Norris, Sanderson but I agree - 8-8.3M for those players will be a steal in 2 years (already a steal for Tkachuk and a little for Stutzle too)

Nolan Baumgartner played with Jarome Iginla in junior. Played against him at his PEAK, when he was one of the best, if not THE best player in the league.

Steve Staios has played with (and against) Jarome Iginla in EDM and CAL.

Wouldn't surprise me if Tij Iginla is selected at 7. And I wouldn't be surprised one bit. He will easily be in top 10/15 of these draft when we look back in the future

Nolan Baumgartner played with Jarome Iginla in junior. Played against him at his PEAK, when he was one of the best, if not THE best player in the league.

Steve Staios has played with (and against) Jarome Iginla in EDM and CAL.

Wouldn't surprise me if Tij Iginla is selected at 7. And I wouldn't be surprised one bit. He will easily be in top 10/15 of these draft when we look back in the future
- AlfieisKing

If Iginla is there at #7, I'd expect Ottawa to take him.

If Iginla is there at #7, I'd expect Ottawa to take him.
- SensFan25

Tij Iginla was one of the forwards I had identified in my draft needs blog a while back, and it's only gotten more realistic since that he could be their pick at #7. There's no question the team has a need for RHD, but they also can't wait 2-3 years to find out if they managed to draft a top-4D or not. Conversely, a young forward could have a more significant impact in that same timeframe, especially a dynamic winger with high-profile NHL pedigree. If I had to bet money I might still go with a D-man, but Iginla is going to be in the conversation... and CGY may even try to move up to 7th overall.

Tij Iginla was one of the forwards I had identified in my draft needs blog a while back, and it's only gotten more realistic since that he could be their pick at #7. There's no question the team has a need for RHD, but they also can't wait 2-3 years to find out if they managed to draft a top-4D or not. Conversely, a young forward could have a more significant impact in that same timeframe, especially a dynamic winger with high-profile NHL pedigree. If I had to bet money I might still go with a D-man, but Iginla is going to be in the conversation... and CGY may even try to move up to 7th overall.
- khawk

Some lists now have Iginla as high as #4 and the top 4 picks all being forwards.

Ottawa has a decent shot of getting Iginla at #7. If not, they will get a very good Dman.

Button has Artyom Levshunov at #7.

Tij Iginla was one of the forwards I had identified in my draft needs blog a while back, and it's only gotten more realistic since that he could be their pick at #7. There's no question the team has a need for RHD, but they also can't wait 2-3 years to find out if they managed to draft a top-4D or not. Conversely, a young forward could have a more significant impact in that same timeframe, especially a dynamic winger with high-profile NHL pedigree. If I had to bet money I might still go with a D-man, but Iginla is going to be in the conversation... and CGY may even try to move up to 7th overall.
- khawk

there should be 3 premium RD up for grabs on July 1st (Roy, Pesce, Montour).

what would you demand of CGY to move up from 9 to 7

Hockey is a business.

If you take all the fan emotion out of the calculus, a buy out Norris at 1/3 the contract value over 2x the remaining length of the deal is a no brainer. The actual cap cost is probably less than what the Sens will pay Joe Plug to skate on the 4th line over the next dozen years.

I was wondering if it is it possible for the Sens to trade Norris to another team (eg. to LA straight up for PLD) and the new team could exercise the buy out option.

A buy out is not as bad as it sounds for Norris.

He is guaranteed $17m. He would have a chance to kick start his career with another team and prove the Sens wrong. But, if he can't play, he can seek another career inside or outside hockey.
- spatso

You guys have fans that aren’t just Leafs fans watching a game for cheap in Ottawa?

One last thought on trying to understand why the buy out on the Josh Norris contract must be so appealing to the bean counters that manage the Sens cap.

If the Sens buy out Norris this summer they actually receive a cap credit of $102K in years 1, 2 and 3 of the buy out period. In year 4 the cap hit for the Sens is $647K (year 4) $1.547m (year 5) $2,397m (year 6). For the remaining 6 years of the buy out period the cap hit is fixed at $1.447m.

The only reason for not buying out Norris is that you need to believe he will be good value at $7.95m. Does anybody really want to take that risk?

My assumption is, if the Sens move to buy out Norris, his agent will insist that he qualifies for full pay on an LTIR option. Ironically, LTIR is an even better outcome for the Sens. I would assume it can go to some form of mediation process for a decision.

There are multiple teams hard pressed against the cap (Tampa, Florida, Vegas) who jump for a chance to take on the Norris contract as an LTIR or as part of a buyout regime.
- spatso

While these are excellent excellent points..... it's REALLY sad/frustrating that we are having this conversation.

This guy was essentially looking like a two-way 35-40 goal center. While I agree he was more like a 30 goal center, that's still pretty hard to get.

While these are excellent excellent points..... it's REALLY sad/frustrating that we are having this conversation.

This guy was essentially looking like a two-way 35-40 goal center. While I agree he was more like a 30 goal center, that's still pretty hard to get.
- AlfieisKing

I don't disagree with anything that you say. In fact, my feeling on Norris are about the same place as you described.

But, when you come to the business end of hockey, there is no room for feelings or softness. Would you choose to take the risk of Norris and his $7.950m contract and hope he is fully recovered? Or, do you choose a buy out a small cap credit and freeing more than $8m from the cap over the next 3 years.

Staios cannot make a decision on this from his heart and feelings. He must make the decision from his head and do what probably offers the best outcome.

oops

This year’s draft should not be treated as a rebuilding type draft as other teams in the Sens range will be doing. This team needs to be competitive in the next couple of years. It makes absolutely no sense to say there is a roster hole at RD, draft one, then then wait 3-4 years for them to come along and fix the hole. It’s like when the Montreal Canadian drafted Michael McCarron because they needed someone to take on Milan Lucic in Boston and then Lucic is gone by the time McCarron had a sniff of the NHL. It becomes a pointless pick.

Existing roster holes need to be fixed via trade, free agency, and already developed players. The draft should be focused on drafting the best player possible to build your cupboard. If it happens to be a defenseman, great, but I really hope they do not go the positional need in the NHL route.

Since there is so much focus on defense depth of the draft, I wonder if Lindstrom will drop or if a move could be made to move up. Good size and scoring touch. Probably out of reach for the Sens.

I agree with the comments on Iginla, but I am weary that part of the hype is just because he’s Jarome’s kid.

Anton Silayev would be my defenseman (realistic) pick. You can’t teach size and if you look at the cup finalists this year, there are lots of big d-men patrolling the blueline. Sam Richardinson would be an interesting project player as well.

The plus side, I don’t see this management group going too off the board so there should be a quality player picked and then its all about development.

This year’s draft should not be treated as a rebuilding type draft as other teams in the Sens range will be doing. This team needs to be competitive in the next couple of years. It makes absolutely no sense to say there is a roster hole at RD, draft one, then then wait 3-4 years for them to come along and fix the hole. It’s like when the Montreal Canadian drafted Michael McCarron because they needed someone to take on Milan Lucic in Boston and then Lucic is gone by the time McCarron had a sniff of the NHL. It becomes a pointless pick.

Existing roster holes need to be fixed via trade, free agency, and already developed players. The draft should be focused on drafting the best player possible to build your cupboard. If it happens to be a defenseman, great, but I really hope they do not go the positional need in the NHL route.

Since there is so much focus on defense depth of the draft, I wonder if Lindstrom will drop or if a move could be made to move up. Good size and scoring touch. Probably out of reach for the Sens.

I agree with the comments on Iginla, but I am weary that part of the hype is just because he’s Jarome’s kid.

Anton Silayev would be my defenseman (realistic) pick. You can’t teach size and if you look at the cup finalists this year, there are lots of big d-men patrolling the blueline. Sam Richardinson would be an interesting project player as well.

The plus side, I don’t see this management group going too off the board so there should be a quality player picked and then its all about development.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

easy pass on Lidstrom, concussion issues not thanks, think Nolan Patrick, former 2nd OA,

According to Spatso

Year 1 - Cap credit of 0.1M
Year 2 - Cap credit of 0.1M
Year 3 - Cap credit of 0.1M

Year 4 - Cap hit of 0.647M
Year 5 - Cap hit of 1.547M
Year 6 - Cap hit of 2.397M

Year 7 - Cap hit of 1.447M
Year 8 - Cap hit of 1.447M
Year 9 - Cap hit of 1.447M
Year 10 - Cap hit of 1.447M
Year 11 - Cap hit of 1.447M
Year 12 - Cap hit of 1.447M
Year 13 - Cap hit of 1.447M

Very interesting. Especially for the next 4 years it's not a big deal AT ALL. Question - is it worth it to see Norris play this entire season and then do we still have the same buyout option?

Actually I just ran it for July 2025, doesn't look like the same buyout at all

To Utah

Josh Norris (6 x 6.5M)

To Ottawa

Alex Kerfoot

To San Jose

Mathieu Joseph
2024 2nd (Utah)
2024 4th (OTT)
2025 3rd (OTT)
1.45M of Norris for 6 years

Thoughts? You like the buyout option or trade similar to this - where a 3rd team comes in. Let's not forget, Norris is easily a 25 goal 50 point player when healthy - which capability of being a 30+ goal 60 point player.

To Utah

Josh Norris (6 x 6.5M)

To Ottawa

Alex Kerfoot

To San Jose

Mathieu Joseph
2024 2nd (Utah)
2024 4th (OTT)
2025 3rd (OTT)
1.45M of Norris for 6 years

Thoughts?
- AlfieisKing

so OTT gets much worst why? and SJS already have 3 retention slots full they cannot retain

According to Spatso

Year 1 - Cap credit of 0.1M
Year 2 - Cap credit of 0.1M
Year 3 - Cap credit of 0.1M

Year 4 - Cap hit of 0.647M
Year 5 - Cap hit of 1.547M
Year 6 - Cap hit of 2.397M

Year 7 - Cap hit of 1.447M
Year 8 - Cap hit of 1.447M
Year 9 - Cap hit of 1.447M
Year 10 - Cap hit of 1.447M
Year 11 - Cap hit of 1.447M
Year 12 - Cap hit of 1.447M
Year 13 - Cap hit of 1.447M

Very interesting. Especially for the next 4 years it's not a big deal AT ALL. Question - is it worth it to see Norris play this entire season and then do we still have the same buyout option?

Actually I just ran it for July 2025, doesn't look like the same buyout at all
- AlfieisKing

That is the point that is so important. Buying out Norris next year will cost 2x the dollar cost (both cap and actual $000) compared to buying him out this month (June 15). The players 26th birthday doubles the buy out cost ratio.

The formula is fairly simple: An NHL team can buy out a player's contract for two-thirds of the remaining amount if the player is 26 or older or for one-third if younger than 26. That figure is spread out over twice the number of years remaining on the contract..