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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Quick Hits: Flyers Daily, Memorial Cup, TIFH
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PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Jun 3 @ 3:43 PM ET
Not sure what happened with the bolding on the last post.

So 15 teams that were tanking have won the cup out of 570 total chances to win the cup since the salary cap was implemented? That is a 2.6% overall success rate. Doesn't seem like the be all-end all strategy you make it out to be.

- mickel25


There are 2 kinds of uncertainty you need to factor in here:

One is something you cannot do anything about. This is that everyone averages out to about only a 3% chance to win a cup every year. The other is looking at which teams manages to get most of the 3%. That part you can do something about.

Its like living till 95. Say only 3% of people make it to that age. But of that 3%, 2.7 % comes from people who lead healthy lives and 0.3% by dumb luck and in spite of unhealthy.

Living till 95 is still very unlikely. You cannot do much about that. But your chances of doing so becomes 9 times more if you change your lifestyle to healthy. So, you are not really maximizing your chances of living till 95 if you lead an unhealthy life, and use as an example Joe Slob who subsisted on chips and cocaine and turned 95 etc.


Flyerz74
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 06.14.2019

Jun 3 @ 3:46 PM ET
I’m not saying Danny did everything right. I’m sure he didn’t. I’m just saying they really got handcuffed.
- Hesh_


And the kid apparently listed a 20 team trade list and this is all they got for the 2nd best prospect outside the NHL? Seems to me other NHL GMs aren't too keen on the kid so far and don't want to deal with the extra BS.
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Jun 3 @ 3:47 PM ET
It really is just gaslighting on their part.
- Schmojo


I think some are fooled by randomness. And I suspect Comcast has a troll factory to keep justifying this pov. Like the guy in my DP (same principle)
Hesh_
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.29.2013

Jun 3 @ 3:50 PM ET
There are 2 kinds of uncertainty you need to factor in here:

One is something you cannot do anything about. This is that everyone averages out to about only a 3% chance to win a cup every year. The other is looking at which teams manages to get most of the 3%. That part you can do something about.

Its like living till 95. Say only 3% of people make it to that age. But of that 3%, 2.7 % comes from people who lead healthy lives and 0.3% by dumb luck and in spite of unhealthy.

Living till 95 is still very unlikely. You cannot do much about that. But your chances of doing so becomes 9 times more if you change your lifestyle to healthy. So, you are not really maximizing your chances of living till 95 if you lead an unhealthy life, and use as an example Joe Slob who subsisted on chips and cocaine and turned 95 etc.

- PT21


Wait, what?

Somebody lied to me.

C’mon, like you wouldn’t wanna live like Hunter S. Thompson or Charles Bukowski.

“We are here to drink beer. We are here to kill war. We are here to laugh at the odds and live our lives so well that Death will tremble to take us.”

Look, maybe that didn’t work out for Bukowski, but I like the thought. Make the Devil tremble.

That quote is still my favorite toast among friends.
jd250
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.12.2018

Jun 3 @ 3:52 PM ET
Is he wrong? They didn’t bungle the Gauthier situation?
- landros 2

No I don't think they did, based on everything I have read. They wanted to sign Gauthier to an ELC after his first college season was over and give him a chance to make the club the follow season out of camp. Quitter balked at that because he wanted a guarantee he would make the Flyers and not be sent down. Talk about entitlement? When did Quitter rise to the level of Bedard? As I have posted many times, Quitter wasn't even the best player on his BC team. That honor IMO belonged to Smith, who you will see playing for the Sharks next season.
Dave21Brown
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: NJ
Joined: 12.09.2018

Jun 3 @ 3:53 PM ET
I think some are fooled by randomness. And I suspect Comcast has a troll factory to keep justifying this pov. Like the guy in my DP (same principle)
- PT21

The longer they commit to staying in the muddy middle, the longer their cup drought will go on. As I stated earlier, there are few examples of finding success without top-end elite talent you drafted yourself since the inception of the salary cap, but an extreme minority.
Hesh_
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.29.2013

Jun 3 @ 3:55 PM ET
Chips and cocaine could be a follow up Ween song.
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Jun 3 @ 3:57 PM ET
The longer they commit to staying in the muddy middle, the longer their cup drought will go on. As I stated earlier, there are few examples of finding success without top-end elite talent you drafted yourself since the inception of the salary cap, but an extreme minority.
- Dave21Brown


This board has largely coalesced around this pov. But you think if it is so obvious to fans, it isn't to mgmt, who are paid to do this full time?

I just don't buy it. I think they know this full well.
Dave21Brown
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: NJ
Joined: 12.09.2018

Jun 3 @ 3:59 PM ET
This board has largely coalesced around this pov. But you think if it is so obvious to fans, it isn't to mgmt, who are paid to do this full time?

I just don't buy it. I think they know this full well.

- PT21

There's certainly a business side that most of us don't take into consideration. I acknowledge that.
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Jun 3 @ 4:00 PM ET


Wait, what?

Somebody lied to me.

C’mon, like you wouldn’t wanna live like Hunter S. Thompson or Charles Bukowski.

“We are here to drink beer. We are here to kill war. We are here to laugh at the odds and live our lives so well that Death will tremble to take us.”

Look, maybe that didn’t work out for Bukowski, but I like the thought. Make the Devil tremble.

That quote is still my favorite toast among friends.

- Hesh_


So, that is an example of not caring whether you make it to 95. That is fine. No argument. Apples and oranges.

It is those who care, and then do chips and cocaine etc that irk me.


PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Jun 3 @ 4:03 PM ET
There's certainly a business side that most of us don't take into consideration. I acknowledge that.
- Dave21Brown


The Comcast business model is retention over innovation. In everything they do.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 3 @ 4:13 PM ET
As I think about the season coming up, I don't agree with Jason that the Flyers have to make the playoffs to be a successful season. To me a successful season for the Flyers might actually look like a step back, with the Flyers finishing lower in the standings this coming season, but in the process clearing out more veterans that will not be part of the future, players like Laughton, Cam and Risto, clearing more cap space and opening up spots for younger players like Lycksell, Grans, Ginning, Attard and Andrae to get some NHL experience and continue to develop. You need to see what you have in these players and decide if they are part of this or not. Can't do that just playing in the AHL. The 2025 draft is going be a deeper draft so the Flyers should want to get as much draft capital as they can to really build the foundation for a contending team for many years to follow. Plus if Michkov does come over, the Flyers will have some cap space the in the 25-26 season to sign 1 or 2 good free agents and really kick this thing off. My opinion is this coming season is not the right time, more clean up is needed IMO.
- jd250



Why would the Flyers need to clear out Ristolainen, who you claimed is the Flyers best defenseman many times? The last thing the Flyers should be doing is going the free agent route again.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 3 @ 4:17 PM ET
It all depends on how Edmonton responds to the physicality of the Panthers. Also Panthers have more offensive talent compared to Dallas. Should be a great series.
- WhiskeyMan


Dallas had the deepest offensive depth in the league coming into the playoffs with 8 20+ goal scorers.
Hesh_
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.29.2013

Jun 3 @ 4:19 PM ET
The Comcast business model is retention over innovation. In everything they do.
- PT21

So that mini Epcot Spaceship Earth in their fancy building is lying.

Joking aside, yeah, pretty much for the most part.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 3 @ 4:26 PM ET
Stop it with "the bungling of Gauthier" already. Its well documented by now, the kid has serious character issues. He is entitled and arrogant. The Flyers did nothing wrong in this situation.
- jd250



LOL, only in Flyers land with the fans who drink the Flyers cool aid is it well documented that Gauthier is a kid with serious character issues. The Flyers completely screwed up that situation.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 3 @ 4:28 PM ET
Friedman is saying the Canes may be doing a GM switch by hiring the former CLB GM. The new GM won’t have sole primary decision-making responsibilities. There will be AGM’s and Dundon collaborating with the GM who will function to communicate with other teams. Some potential GMs have been scared off but they still have a long list interested.

Looks like the Flyer blueprint may be the new way forward.

- Minnyhock


Carolina is going to hire their color analyst to run the team?
2Real
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: IT'S GRITTIN TIME, CA
Joined: 07.14.2007

Jun 3 @ 4:36 PM ET
yea yea this organization is such a dumpster fire that we set Cam York on a development plan to get him into the player he was this season

we also trade a prima donna that hasn't even sniffed a real nhl season and get a super talented defenseman
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 3 @ 4:37 PM ET
I should clarify further that I think "tanking" is losing on purpose. Throwing games for lack of a better term.

I wish we did what Chicago is doing. Rip it down to the studs to get as many assets and cap space as possible. And if you lose a lot of games at first its worth it in the long run. The Flyers will never, EVER do that. And it will kill them in perpetuity.

- MBFlyerfan


I agree with you. The concept of tanking is misused. Trading veterans for future draft picks is not tanking.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 3 @ 4:39 PM ET
You know this never happened, right? He didn't cut communications. He simply wanted communications funneled through his agent who was representing him...



As far as what they could have done, answer is very simple. He was a key to future success. They should have devoted resources to staying on the same wavelength and reading where he was at. They failed, panicked and then tried desperately to cover up.

- PT21


You're incorrect. The Flyers could not get any feedback from his agent or the player at the end. Which is why they flew overseas to try and talk to the player.
jd250
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.12.2018

Jun 3 @ 4:40 PM ET
Why would the Flyers need to clear out Ristolainen, who you claimed is the Flyers best defenseman many times? The last thing the Flyers should be doing is going the free agent route again.
- MJL

I am not saying to sign free agents this coming season, but the season after this coming season where the Flyers are projected to have a good amount of cap space. They should look at who's available that can fill some gaps they have at that time.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 3 @ 4:41 PM ET
Gotcha. But who loses games on purpose? That would likely invoke a NHL fine, and if not, a congressional/federal investigation as it would be match fixing.

Teams don't have to do that. Simply use management discretion and trade away best players for future picks. Let the dregs play as hard as they can.

There is a reason teams like San Jose and Montreal have moved away from being perpetually good but not good enough. We will follow too, once people stop blaming "triumvirate" who are useful idiots to Comcast strategy. Till then, we will have a perpetual succession of drama and smoke to distract us, and did you notice tix sales were 94% this year?

- PT21


Pittsburgh Penguins did to get Mario Lemeiux. Sent down thier starting goaltender and brought up a goalie who was clearly not an NHL goalie under the guise of they wanted to get a look at him. It was clearly to ensure that they lost down the stretch. Teams have absolutely done that in the history of the league.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 3 @ 4:48 PM ET
No I don't think they did, based on everything I have read. They wanted to sign Gauthier to an ELC after his first college season was over and give him a chance to make the club the follow season out of camp. Quitter balked at that because he wanted a guarantee he would make the Flyers and not be sent down. Talk about entitlement? When did Quitter rise to the level of Bedard? As I have posted many times, Quitter wasn't even the best player on his BC team. That honor IMO belonged to Smith, who you will see playing for the Sharks next season.
- jd250



You have it wrong. Gauthier wanted to sign after his first NCAA season was over. Briere and the Flyers said no.
hello it's me 2050
Location: AR
Joined: 05.14.2021

Jun 3 @ 4:49 PM ET
No I don't think they did, based on everything I have read. They wanted to sign Gauthier to an ELC after his first college season was over and give him a chance to make the club the follow season out of camp. Quitter balked at that because he wanted a guarantee he would make the Flyers and not be sent down. Talk about entitlement? When did Quitter rise to the level of Bedard? As I have posted many times, Quitter wasn't even the best player on his BC team. That honor IMO belonged to Smith, who you will see playing for the Sharks next season.
- jd250

well the hobby baker peeps disagree

edit he did:will let cliff respond as it will be more entertaining.
Schmojo
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 06.14.2023

Jun 3 @ 4:50 PM ET
Can't possibly be true. Lets look at the back to back finals with WIngs and Pens, with 1 win apiece. Unless Hossa changed the balance, the rosters were largely the same. So, fraction of Canadian players can't be more for both teams.

In fact, wasn't the Wings team stacked with Swedes (+ Datsyuk+Hasek)?

- PT21


Like I said, hadn’t verified. I heard it second hand. But looking at your specific example it does look like PIT had 10 Canadians to Detroit’s 9 Canadians in 08.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 3 @ 4:50 PM ET
I am not saying to sign free agents this coming season, but the season after this coming season where the Flyers are projected to have a good amount of cap space. They should look at who's available that can fill some gaps they have at that time.
- jd250


I know when you said. Still a bad idea. Need to stick with drafting and developing. This is going to take 5 years or longer. Just because you have money in your pocket. Doesn't mean you have to spend it. Fill the gaps through the draft.
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