this makes no sense. thats not whats happening here.
im not interested in your straw man nonsense.

im sure there are examples of goalies who signed deals for ~4% cap while giving up a couple UFA years.

Leafs are betting on potential it seems. again assuming the numbers reported are accurate.

also...my first response was...it sounds high...but not lose your poop over...high
- senstroll

I'll let somebody else give you the answer.

The point there is also accurate. You don't have to pay more to get a mediocre player as a UFA. You're right - you have to pay more to get a good player.

At this point Woll's UFA years should have no substantial value because he's never even started more than 23 games in a season. He may have some decent underlying numbers in his few starts but the sample size is just way too small to say - and that sample size hasn't been limited by lack of opportunity granted, it's been limited by Woll's own inability to stay healthy which even kept him on the Marlies for longer than was expected by the parent club.

At a certain age you stop paying for potential, and I have to think by the time a guy is 27, you're no longer paying for who you hope he'll be but are paying for who he is.

Because he's only 25 he does have a couple of years here to change that stock, but to me the point is that as of right _now_ he hasn't established enough value to demand a greater pay grade for his UFA years. -Monkeypunk

man Spain looks like bananas running on the field.
- dmnted

Great team

List the goalies who became UFAs without proving they're healthy, regular, successful starting goalies who got the kind of money Woll would be getting from the Leafs.

In the real world. Do it.
- Rare_Jewel

Not the same money, but a close example:

Connor Ingram, 2 x $1.95m after only 3 NHL games as a UFA signed by Arizona away from Nashville (and 4 Playoff games). They weren't even particularly good games.

Kochetkov is the closest I can think of, and he got 4 x $2m. Spencer Knight, similarly, received 3 x $4.5m after only 3 NHL games - but he was a 13OA pick.

Guys in a similar boat to Woll in experience - like Vladar, Blackwood, Vejmelka, all made around $2m on their second deals; Georgiev received $2.5 on a 2 year bridge, but he had 70 games of experience. Some guys like Vanecek and Gustavsson bridged at their ELC salaries and then received larger paydays on their 3rd deals.

But Ivan Fedotov. That's your guy. 3 games of NHL experience, age 27, just signed a $3.3m x 2 year deal as a UFA.

Bad management is all around, but it doesn't mean that we should be following those foot steps.

Rather bet on a 25 year old who is trending up vs a 34 year old, who was very inconsistent in Vancouver and makes 6m
- mr.sir

It was never a choice between those two.
Silly example

Woll doesnt deserve that kind of money.
2.5m max
46 nhl games

Not the same money, but a close example:

Connor Ingram, 2 x $1.95m after only 3 NHL games as a UFA signed by Arizona away from Nashville (and 4 Playoff games). They weren't even particularly good games.

Kochetkov is the closest I can think of, and he got 4 x $2m. Spencer Knight, similarly, received 3 x $4.5m after only 3 NHL games - but he was a 13OA pick.

Guys in a similar boat to Woll in experience - like Vladar, Blackwood, Vejmelka, all made around $2m on their second deals; Georgiev received $2.5 on a 2 year bridge, but he had 70 games of experience. Some guys like Vanecek and Gustavsson bridged at their ELC salaries and then received larger paydays on their 3rd deals.

But Ivan Fedotov. That's your guy. 3 games of NHL experience, age 27, just signed a $3.3m x 2 year deal as a UFA.

Bad management is all around, but it doesn't mean that we should be following those foot steps.
- Monkeypunk

So either guys signed for under 3 (which is what Woll should get) or a bunch of bad bets.

Fedotov you could at least argue he proved he was a starter in the KHL and have to overpay his KHL salary. Woll hasn't even proven that in the AHL. He always got hurt there too.

Yup, that's the Leafs, another bad bet team.

At his age, given his injury history, that's a bad gamble.

You give him a 2 year deal at 2 AAV and treat him as the back-up he is.

If he proves more than that, you pay him for it when he PROVES he's worth it.

As I said earlier, UFA years mean nothing when he's not a regular NHLer yet.
- Rare_Jewel

I doubt 2x2 was an option. Woll would bet on himself this year. More likely the only real options were to defer to next summer or bet on him and his health and buy a couple of UFA years.

I was golfing with my Dad and we got the news in the clubhouse after. We were both like ..who cares ..we have Pogge!
- The Law

The Bruins didn’t win anything with Rask and he’s the one star that didn’t leave any money on the table during his negotiations. Then he bailed on them during the bubble playoffs.

Not the same money, but a close example:

Connor Ingram, 2 x $1.95m after only 3 NHL games as a UFA signed by Arizona away from Nashville (and 4 Playoff games). They weren't even particularly good games.

Kochetkov is the closest I can think of, and he got 4 x $2m. Spencer Knight, similarly, received 3 x $4.5m after only 3 NHL games - but he was a 13OA pick.

Guys in a similar boat to Woll in experience - like Vladar, Blackwood, Vejmelka, all made around $2m on their second deals; Georgiev received $2.5 on a 2 year bridge, but he had 70 games of experience. Some guys like Vanecek and Gustavsson bridged at their ELC salaries and then received larger paydays on their 3rd deals.

But Ivan Fedotov. That's your guy. 3 games of NHL experience, age 27, just signed a $3.3m x 2 year deal as a UFA.

Bad management is all around, but it doesn't mean that we should be following those foot steps.
- Monkeypunk

I had a better list earlier. The true comps are guys signing before they enter their last RFA year (ie. they have leverage) and are giving up a pair of UFA years.

Montebault 3 x 3.75 .....Vanecek in Jersey .....Gustavsson ...all better comps because of where they were at with their RFA/UFA years. All of them got the same type of deals as this one is being reported.

The Bruins didn’t win anything with Rask and he’s the one star that didn’t leave any money on the table during his negotiations. Then he bailed on them during the bubble playoffs.
- shack67

Rask went to 2 Cup Finals, won a Vezina and played 500+ games over 10 years.

He was a fantastic elite goalie.

Rask went to 2 Cup Finals, won a Vezina and played 500+ games over 10 years.

He was a fantastic elite goalie.
- Rare_Jewel

Tim Thomas won the cup for them. And Rask’s play was suspect in the finals, he might be the reason why the Bruins didn’t win another cup.

The Bruins didn’t win anything with Rask and he’s the one star that didn’t leave any money on the table during his negotiations. Then he bailed on them during the bubble playoffs.
- shack67

Vezina.

Ok.

I doubt 2x2 was an option. Woll would bet on himself this year. More likely the only real options were to defer to next summer or bet on him and his health and buy a couple of UFA years.
- The Law

Woll hasn't played more than 37 games in a season over his entire NCAA / AHL / NHL life.

He could bet on himself until the cows come home. If he's not healthy, he's not worth a damn.

I had a better list earlier. The true comps are guys signing before they enter their last RFA year (ie. they have leverage) and are giving up a pair of UFA years.

Montebault 3 x 3.75 .....Vanecek in Jersey .....Gustavsson ...all better comps because of where they were at with their RFA/UFA years. All of them got the same type of deals as this one is being reported.
- The Law

Did Monte, Vane or Gus have a total of 45 NHL games and missed more games due to injury than games played? I don't think they did.

Tim Thomas won the cup for them. And Rask’s play was suspect in the finals, he might be the reason why the Bruins didn’t win another cup.
- shack67

Thomas won the Cup with him as the back-up, nobody said otherwise. However Rask gave the Bruins multiple fantastic chances at Cups after that.

False. The year they lost to the Blues, he had remarkable numbers that playoff season, .930 SV%. Better than Binnington over the whole playoffs.

And look at Sammy.

He was a bag full of question marks and went to the arbitrator with ~ 100+ games on his resume and the arbitrator gave him 3.55M for his final RFA year.

If Woll wins the job and has a good year (yes, big if) what's the arbitrator give him in his last RFA year next summer? And Tree wants to buy some of the UFA years that follow - what do those cost?

That's the bet that Tree has made. He's betting on Woll and if he's right he's saved them some cap space.

And look at Sammy.

He was a bag full of question marks and went to the arbitrator with ~ 100+ games on his resume and the arbitrator gave him 3.55M for his final RFA year.

If Woll wins the job and has a good year (yes, big if) what's the arbitrator give him in his last RFA year next summer? And Tree wants to buy some of the UFA years that follow - what do those cost?

That's the bet that Tree has made. He's betting on Woll and if he's right he's saved them some cap space.
- The Law

And despite that bet, because of his injury history, Tree also has to spend money on another goalie as insurance for when (not if) Woll gets injured. So whatever he saved, he has to spend on another goalie regardless.

I doubt 2x2 was an option. Woll would bet on himself this year. More likely the only real options were to defer to next summer or bet on him and his health and buy a couple of UFA years.
- The Law

He's an RFA for 2 years yet - if a guy with a horrible injury history wants to go year-by-year, he can take the chance. Offer him 2x2 or 1x1.5.

Here's the thing - I believe in Woll as does, I believe, everyone here. We're concerned about his ability to stay healthy and be an NHL starter, as I would imagine are the Leafs' management team (especially since Treliving called it out in his post season presser). It doesn't change the fact that including NHL playoffs he only has 37 NHL starts. Like this season alone, rookies Dostal, Ersson and Kochetkov all have more NHL starts than Woll does in his career since 2021.

I just don't think he has _earned_ that large payday that puts him in the same realm as Oettinger, Andersen, Allen, Georgiev, even old man Varlamov . . . that said, if you are intent on buying into his UFA years and you really believe in him, and you want to disregard his lack of accomplishments and reward his unproven potential, I just don't see how he's done enough to put himself beyond a guy like Montembeault @ $3.15. Like I don't know what the value of the deal is but if Weekes puts it between $3.5 - $4m . . .

Some sports reporter from the New York Herald (@RealRobReinhart) is reporting Marner is off to Utah. The guy has 1500 followers and I have no idea who he is, so take this with a grain of salt.



But one can hope...

And despite that bet, because of his injury history, Tree also has to spend money on another goalie as insurance for when (not if) Woll gets injured. So whatever he saved, he has to spend on another goalie regardless.
- Rare_Jewel

It's not about this year ...the saving (if it works out) would be in 25-28'.

He was always going to spend 2-3M on a partner for this year.

Vezina.

Ok.
- Fakepartofme

The biggest reason for your love of rask is that the Leafs traded him and it fits your usual negative narrative.

He's an RFA for 2 years yet - if a guy with a horrible injury history wants to go year-by-year, he can take the chance. Offer him 2x2 or 1x1.5.

Here's the thing - I believe in Woll as does, I believe, everyone here. We're concerned about his ability to stay healthy and be an NHL starter, as I would imagine are the Leafs' management team (especially since Treliving called it out in his post season presser). It doesn't change the fact that including NHL playoffs he only has 37 NHL starts. Like this season alone, rookies Dostal, Ersson and Kochetkov all have more NHL starts than Woll does in his career since 2021.

I just don't think he has _earned_ that large payday that puts him in the same realm as Oettinger, Andersen, Allen, Georgiev, even old man Varlamov . . . that said, if you are intent on buying into his UFA years and you really believe in him, and you want to disregard his lack of accomplishments and reward his unproven potential, I just don't see how he's done enough to put himself beyond a guy like Montembeault @ $3.15. Like I don't know what the value of the deal is but if Weekes puts it between $3.5 - $4m . . .
- Monkeypunk

It's not about this year ...the saving (if it works out) would be in 25-28'.

He was always going to spend 2-3M on a partner for this year.
- The Law

I don't see saving in 2028 being more important than winning a Stanley Cup.

And we're not winning a Stanley Cup if the guy you're hoping saves the puck isn't there in game 7.

I had a better list earlier. The true comps are guys signing before they enter their last RFA year (ie. they have leverage) and are giving up a pair of UFA years.

Montebault 3 x 3.75 .....Vanecek in Jersey .....Gustavsson ...all better comps because of where they were at with their RFA/UFA years. All of them got the same type of deals as this one is being reported.
- The Law

Note that many of the guys I listed were the same type of thing - they were coming into their 3rd deals, so they had come off of ELC, bridged for a year or two, and were signing their last RFA/first UFA deals - and most of them - due to a lack of NHL experience more than anything - were relatively low.

It's why a guy like Woll stands to make a metric (frank)ton in free agency, because once you establsh that you are an NHL starter, the money rolls freely. But if you take Woll from this year - His first 4 starts were great (Oct 16 - 26). Of his next 5, only 1 was good (Oct 31 - Nov 10). Then they give him a 10 day break, he comes back and pops off 5 good games of his next 6 - before being injured and missing the next 3 months. After his injury he did draw the harder assignments over Samsonov but his play was pretty spotty - in those 10 games over 6 weeks he had 5 good and 5 bad.

I mean it when I say that I believe in him - I just don't get the NHL financial reality of rewarding someone for an unfulfilled promise.

He's an RFA for 2 years yet - if a guy with a horrible injury history wants to go year-by-year, he can take the chance. Offer him 2x2 or 1x1.5.

Here's the thing - I believe in Woll as does, I believe, everyone here. We're concerned about his ability to stay healthy and be an NHL starter, as I would imagine are the Leafs' management team (especially since Treliving called it out in his post season presser). It doesn't change the fact that including NHL playoffs he only has 37 NHL starts. Like this season alone, rookies Dostal, Ersson and Kochetkov all have more NHL starts than Woll does in his career since 2021.

I just don't think he has _earned_ that large payday that puts him in the same realm as Oettinger, Andersen, Allen, Georgiev, even old man Varlamov . . . that said, if you are intent on buying into his UFA years and you really believe in him, and you want to disregard his lack of accomplishments and reward his unproven potential, I just don't see how he's done enough to put himself beyond a guy like Montembeault @ $3.15. Like I don't know what the value of the deal is but if Weekes puts it between $3.5 - $4m . . .
- Monkeypunk

He's under contract this coming year. He doesn't have to sign any extension. Next summer he has 1 RFA year left and arbitration rights. Year to year isn't just his risk ..it's the teams as well (us Leaf fans are keenly aware of the results of gambling/waiting to sign extensions).

I don't think the debate here has anything to do with 'concerns about this guy being able to stay healthy" ....we're all on the same page. He's a big big risk.

I think where some of missing the point ...is the money he signed ..it's inevitable. That's the right money because that's what guys in similar positions with similar leverage signed for. The real issue is whether Tree should have swerved left (wait until next summer) or swerved right (extend him now).

You want to say don't extend ...I respect that. I might even agree with it. But the you should have got him for less thing is ridiculous fandom.

Sorry for the delay folks, my gf just brought me out so she could have a Caesar and poutine and treated me with a pitcher of beer… she also ordered the largest poutine and I got half of it… been a real tough afternoon for me

I don't see saving in 2028 being more important than winning a Stanley Cup.

And we're not winning a Stanley Cup if the guy you're hoping saves the puck isn't there in game 7.
- Rare_Jewel

And that's totally fair ...the Leafs are swerving right when you (and maybe me too) would've swerved left.