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Forums :: Blog World :: Zach Jarom: Arty Party and Kyle Davidson's Vision
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breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Jul 12 @ 1:21 PM ET
Friedman, Roumeliotis and one other guy whose name escapes me reported it.
- Chunk


I never saw anything from those two about it, other than Roumeliotis just reposting Pierre LeBrun's tweet that Chicago tried to make a trade.
breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Jul 12 @ 1:24 PM ET
KK was a 22 minute player (actually a little over 19) on a 52 point team. If the Hawks were an 80 point team, would they have left him in junior? Or play him 12-14 minutes a game?
- LAHawk


Closer to 20 minutes than 19 and 3rd in total ice time for the entire Hawks team. I can't see them giving him that much playing time and then not playing him. Usually the guys who show offensive upside win the spots when a team lacks offense drastically (like we do).
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

Jul 12 @ 1:25 PM ET
Better question is why was Sennecke picked over Demidov? Not disputing Demidov talent and skill there might be reasons why four teams passed on him and maybe there are not.
- Scott1977


His selection is in fact the realization not all teams viewed Demidov as more the third best forward.

I'd start with both being better skaters than Demidov, and their prospective leagues were full of views on the two North Americans and their competition.

interesting how even when this past 2024 was billed as the defenseman draft, only one of the "golden rearguards" was taken until picks

&, 9, 10 , 11, 12

That tells you that the teams drafting in the top seven saw more upside in Catton, Iginla, and the forwards as higher prospect choices, more guaranteed to help higher up.
All the lengthy debates of how Buium and company were so close to Arty or so full of upside, well, I guess the managemenst in the top 7 saw it differently.




















boilermaker100
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.23.2015

Jul 12 @ 1:25 PM ET
Really, when you think about it, every team in the league has a bunch of could be's.

Its the nature of prospects

Been a long time since we could look at it from a standpoint of wondering who among the 15 to 20 prospects they are building up will make it, as opposed to wondering if this 3rd or 4th or 5th round guy could be a diamond in the rough.

Definitely will be exciting, especially 2 years from now.

- vabeachbear


The Daily Faceoff is doing a series of articles on each team's top 10 prospects. They're doing it alphabetically. Carolina was today so Chicago should be up next. I'm looking forward to it.
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Jul 12 @ 1:26 PM ET
Nah they do maths to try to even it out. I think its interesting when you see consistencies and it fills gaps or confirms a bias but its really a wild ass guess.

Stuff like puck retrievals, denying entries, shooting the puck at the net or whatever maybe cut and dry. How those are combined to get stuff like expected goals and overall ratings or league adjusted gets a little muddier because thats based on interpretation and bias rather than raw numbers. How much of an impact do completed passes have on stuff like quality of teammates? 60% of the time every time kinda thing. What regression do you use to account for the quality of competition in something like the USHL vs CHL vs NCAA vs Europe. You make stuff up that kinda sort of makes sense and if your model mostly fits historical data then it's probably mostly close.

Does predict success? Yes but also no.

Patrick Kane for example is someone who is usually underwater "possession" wise but consistently outscores opponents. Does not fit model but tough to argue with the end result. Probably still want him on your team.

So its somewhat instructive, personality and leadership qualities are important, knowing role important, understanding positioning isn't really something there is qualitative data on. So it's a tool. I have table saw and a mitre saw. Both are great but I'm probably not going to cut fence posts to length with a table saw.

- fattybeef


For a bit of a crash course on the topic:

https://thehockeywriters....ance-metrics-definitions/

It's not exhaustive, and doesn't really answer too many of Fatty's questions, but will provide a decent base to understand the terms and why they may be important (or at the very least why they are used).
BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

Jul 12 @ 1:31 PM ET
For a bit of a crash course on the topic:

https://thehockeywriters....ance-metrics-definitions/

It's not exhaustive, and doesn't really answer too many of Fatty's questions, but will provide a decent base to understand the terms and why they may be important (or at the very least why they are used).

- Chunk



Thanks guys for the response, i figured they have to tweek things to be relative if they are players playing in different leagues. That's really the issue for me, unfortunately a human element has to come into play.
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Jul 12 @ 1:34 PM ET
I never saw anything from those two about it, other than Roumeliotis just reposting Pierre LeBrun's tweet that Chicago tried to make a trade.
- breadbag


Watch the Hawks finish with the 8th worse record next year and win the draft lottery to move up to #1. Then fans will be happy the trade for #4 in 2024 didn't happen.


Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Jul 12 @ 1:36 PM ET
Watch the Hawks finish with the 8th worse record next year and win the draft lottery to move up to #1. Then fans will be happy the trade for #4 in 2024 didn't happen.



- DarthKane


I'm sure Wiz would lose his $hit.
breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Jul 12 @ 1:37 PM ET
Watch the Hawks finish with the 8th worse record next year and win the draft lottery to move up to #1. Then fans will be happy the trade for #4 in 2024 didn't happen.



- DarthKane


Ha True. If this happens, there will be outcry of people claiming they "won" the second pick this last season after they won the first and can't win again.

Then there will be a whole online debate about the wording of "can not improve your draft positions more than twice in a 5 year period".
fattybeef
Joined: 05.04.2010

Jul 12 @ 1:38 PM ET
We might have an NHL roster this year. But so far it's not a good NHL roster.
- rpeters01


But it's not bad.
fattybeef
Joined: 05.04.2010

Jul 12 @ 1:39 PM ET
Scotty Bowman always believed have a strong defense and anybody can play goalie.
- rpeters01


Precap luxury.

True for the 2010 Hawks with how many guys on ELCs popped at once. Not so much for the other two times.
breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Jul 12 @ 1:42 PM ET
Precap luxury.

True for the 2010 Hawks with how many guys on ELCs popped at once. Not so much for the other two times.

- fattybeef


One thing that is interesting on the topic is Florida. They just won the cup with nearly 15 million tied up in goalies.
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

Jul 12 @ 1:45 PM ET
Without refreshing myself on the 2019 draft, hell yea!... Maybe cuz he's a Hawk and doesn't put up big numbers IMO the kid is highly underrated by Hawk fans, even here at HB.
- Mr Ricochet

The couple years around Vlasic draft year were ones that had super strong USA national teams and the entire defense had the luxury of some good forwards to rely on, and the entire USA stable was filled with kids that played defense the right way.

Goalie Spencer Knight, Caufield, Boldy, Zegras, Turcotte, Johnny Beecher, wnet in 2019 as did defenseman Cam York, Vlasic, and Drew Helleson, but the two years sandwiched around that 2019 draft also had defenders Bode Wilde K'Andre Miller and Mattias Samuelsson, (and they sort of were the minutes that Vlasic was asked to graduate into, and the team had rearguards Brock Faber, Tyler Kleven coming in, so there was lots' of deth and talent that made selecting Vlasic a prospect who always could kate very well, and whose scouting reports took in the group and if they were part of his success.

Sure, a lot happened afterward his name being called.

His path to the nHL, three years in college to build his entire game further, and then that year in Rockford, and his high work ethic to be a true pro.

If you get prospects with size and good boots, they have a chance to percolate and grow past their early second round selection status.
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

Jul 12 @ 1:51 PM ET
I'm sure Wiz would lose his $hit.
- Chunk


Oh, yeah, but mostly with you all here, starting a draft James Hagens campaign while I want Matone!

(and Michael Misa, and especially Malcolm Spence) and another high end goalie prospect.)

https://www.lines.com/nhl/drafts/2025
boilermaker100
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.23.2015

Jul 12 @ 2:12 PM ET
Oh, yeah, but mostly with you all here, starting a draft James Hagens campaign while I want Matone!

(and Michael Misa, and espcially Malcolm Spence) and another high end goalie prospect.)

https://www.lines.com/nhl/drafts/2025

- wiz1901


Shouldn't one of those Calgary picks be Montreal's own? Montréal also has Calgary's 1st, but it's top 10 protected.
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Jul 12 @ 2:56 PM ET
Oh, yeah, but mostly with you all here, starting a draft James Hagens campaign while I want Matone!

(and Michael Misa, and espcially Malcolm Spence) and another high end goalie prospect.)


https://www.lines.com/nhl/drafts/2025

- wiz1901


McQueen and Moore could be solid selections too.
breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Jul 12 @ 3:22 PM ET
Ben Pope
@BenPopeCST
Newly signed Blackhawks’ numbers, plus a few returning players have changed numbers:

Craig Smith: #15
Martinez: #25
Brossoit: #39
Levshunov: #55
Bertuzzi: #59
Maroon: #77
Brodie: #78
Teravainen: #86
Mikheyev: #95

Korchinski: #14
Anderson: #22
Reichel: #73
LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

Jul 12 @ 3:33 PM ET
Ben Pope
@BenPopeCST
Newly signed Blackhawks’ numbers, plus a few returning players have changed numbers:

Craig Smith: #15
Martinez: #25
Brossoit: #39
Levshunov: #55
Bertuzzi: #59
Maroon: #77
Brodie: #78
Teravainen: #86
Mikheyev: #95

Korchinski: #14
Anderson: #22
Reichel: #73

- breadbag


When is Roenick's jersey retirement ceremony?
BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

Jul 12 @ 3:56 PM ET
Didn't realize that Demidov had 3 injuries this season and 2 were to the knees. Maybe there is something to his skating style. That injury that occurred in the finals it looked awkward like he was avoiding getting sandwiched by the defenders. Theres no doubt he has a ton of skill but if his knees can't handle the MHL how is he going to survive in the better leagues. I guess time will tell but I'm guessing he's going to have a tough career staying healthy.
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Jul 12 @ 4:30 PM ET
When is Roenick's jersey retirement ceremony?
- LAHawk


Right after Oduya's
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Jul 12 @ 4:30 PM ET
Ben Pope
@BenPopeCST
Newly signed Blackhawks’ numbers, plus a few returning players have changed numbers:

Craig Smith: #15
Martinez: #25
Brossoit: #39
Levshunov: #55
Bertuzzi: #59
Maroon: #77
Brodie: #78
Teravainen: #86
Mikheyev: #95

Korchinski: #14
Anderson: #22
Reichel: #73

- breadbag


Korchinski wore #14 before. I don't like that number for a d-man but if it makes him feel better then it's great.

Levshunov normally wears #5, but that's taken until Murphy gets the boot. 55 is still good though.

I wondered if Martinez would take #23, forcing Kurashev to find a new number. In the past Kurashev wore 71 which is also not available.

Reichel wore #73 for Germany, I think a change/fresh start is good for him. The only other Blackhawk to wear 73 was Brandon Pirri in 2021.


DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Jul 12 @ 4:31 PM ET
Right after Oduya's
- Chunk



Which is right after Olesz's! #retire85
fattybeef
Joined: 05.04.2010

Jul 12 @ 4:33 PM ET
I don't know, there was a point there in the interview where it sure sounded like he was saying KK was kind of forced to be there, and sure sounded like he would like him in Rockford this year.

I might be reading into it, as I'm firmly in the over develop camp, but thought that's what i heard.

- vabeachbear


They could have sent him back to the WHL and just let him rack up points. I think after a full season in the NHL it's probably his spot to lose.

Plus I can't think of a drafted player who went to the AHL after a full season in the NHL and had any success. And I mean like a full season not splitting time.

Rafalski and Giardono kinda took the road less traveled but they were both underrated. Martin St Louis was also undrafted and took a while to get going.

Kris Russel was a third round pick that played +60 games twice then got sent down for 14 after that.

Derrick Pouliot was a first rounder that once played 60 NHL games for two years went to the AHL and faded into obscurity.

Could not find a player drafted in the first round that went to the NHL first, played +60 games, and then got dropped to the AHL team. There just isn't a comparable. Aside from some guys who were just not good players from the start.

Timothy Liljegren is kinda close. Not a very high bar there. Pierre-Olivier Joseph, dunno who that is but started in AHL then NHL then AHL then whatever.

It just doesn't seem like a plausible path for him to go to the AHL, especially since there isn't a comparable.

Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Jul 12 @ 4:43 PM ET
They could have sent him back to the WHL and just let him rack up points. I think after a full season in the NHL it's probably his spot to lose.

Plus I can't think of a drafted player who went to the AHL after a full season in the NHL and had any success. And I mean like a full season not splitting time.

Rafalski and Giardono kinda took the road less traveled but they were both underrated. Martin St Louis was also undrafted and took a while to get going.

Kris Russel was a third round pick that played +60 games twice then got sent down for 14 after that.

Derrick Pouliot was a first rounder that once played 60 NHL games for two years went to the AHL and faded into obscurity.

Could not find a player drafted in the first round that went to the NHL first, played +60 games, and then got dropped to the AHL team. There just isn't a comparable. Aside from some guys who were just not good players from the start.

Timothy Liljegren is kinda close. Not a very high bar there. Pierre-Olivier Joseph, dunno who that is but started in AHL then NHL then AHL then whatever.

It just doesn't seem like a plausible path for him to go to the AHL, especially since there isn't a comparable.

- fattybeef


I think if KK comes into camp the same guy he was at the end of the season, then I think he gets sent down. If he shows growth over last year, it's likely he stays with the team and plays regularly. Hopefully he's been studying Josi like was mentioned at the end of the season, or heck even watching what Vlasic does.
fattybeef
Joined: 05.04.2010

Jul 12 @ 4:48 PM ET
For a bit of a crash course on the topic:

https://thehockeywriters....ance-metrics-definitions/

It's not exhaustive, and doesn't really answer too many of Fatty's questions, but will provide a decent base to understand the terms and why they may be important (or at the very least why they are used).

- Chunk


They're important but they not more importanter than anything else. Ultimately results matter.

If I go to a restaurant I'll probably tolerate not great service if the food is tremendous. But it sure is nice when everything aligns. Service great, ambiance good (I can hear the people I'm with talking), and food tasty.

The fancy stuff basically validates and should align with results (goals, assists, team success) and the eye test (player positioning, engagement in game, communication with teammates, ect.). In big Arty's case it looks like it does.

It shouldn't be used to reach though. Like oh wow this guy drove a poop load of play (high cf and relative cf) and had a bunch of assists. But doesn't score many goals and has a huge ratio of secondary assists and all he does on the ice is skate it over the blue line then fire the puck on net. Maybe not an effective player but probably looks decent on paper and a casual onlooker would wonder why they're not taking the next step.

Someone like Jonathan Toews on the other hand, drives lots of play, scores lots of goals and used to eat guys alive below the goal line when you watched the game.

Long winded way of saying the numbers by themself are not necessarily instructive but when combined with other factors it can help separate an effective player from a dominant one.
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