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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Quick Hits: Konecny, WJSS, TIFH
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Flyers_01
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 10.03.2006

Jul 26 @ 1:53 PM ET
There is a lot of inertia with these dynasties. You should know. How long did the Flyers milk the Broad St Bullies brand? That is why Hawks took so long to break it up finally and why the Pens still don't. Those Florida teams, otoh, their floor is much lower. And I suspect this plays a part in the "ruthlessness" of Tampa.

Problem is, it is hard to build those dynasties. The rewards are uncertain. The costs are certain.

If teams had an economic incentive to pursue wins, why on earth would you ever see a team not go for it? They would all the time. They pursue winning for hockey glory, and they bring in fans? There would be no downside to it
.

But that is not the way the incentives are structured. The system simply does not reward individual winning in the NHL.

- PT21


How do you figure the costs are certain? Does everyone need to spend to the cap? Buyout players? Buyout multiple coaches? Pay the coach $4 mill/yr? Pay a large analytic staff to build trade apps? etc.

Costs may have a minimum but they aren't fixed unless you are the Coyotes (RIP).

The downside is this, building a winner takes years and rarely is the front office who started it around for the end. Zito didn't draft any of the top 4 overall picks the Panthers drafted. In the list i published earlier, the current Devils GM didn't draft the first 2 #1 overall picks on their roster. Dale Tallon built the Blackhawks dynasty, only for Scottie's son Stan to get the glory.

That's why company CEOs do crazy things that hurt the company long term so that they can hit bonus figures this year. Execs are more worried about money today than glory tomorrow.

What benefits the team/company long term don't necessary benefit the people in charge of making decisions today.

Briere/Jones won't be here in 8 years to deal with Konecny/Sanheim/Couts/Tippet but it's better for them if the team is viewed as "good" today when they eventually are replaced.

The only guarantees are death and taxes. If you want guarantees you shouldn't watch sports.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 26 @ 1:57 PM ET
There is a lot of inertia with these dynasties. You should know. How long did the Flyers milk the Broad St Bullies brand? That is why Hawks took so long to break it up finally and why the Pens still don't. Those Florida teams, otoh, their floor is much lower. And I suspect this plays a part in the "ruthlessness" of Tampa.

Problem is, it is hard to build those dynasties. The rewards are uncertain. The costs are certain.

If teams had an economic incentive to pursue wins, why on earth would you ever see a team not go for it? They would all the time. They pursue winning for hockey glory, and they bring in fans? There would be no downside to it.

But that is not the way the incentives are structured. The system simply does not reward individual winning in the NHL.

- PT21


Teams tend to hang on well after a team should be broken up and teams get a grace period after winning for sure. It's been 9 years though. I think you overplay how much a team will lose revenue wise if they burn it down. It's the inevitable and the fans will support it if they see promise. This premise you have that they will take on an unacceptable revenue loss if they break it down, is unfounded in my opinion. I completely disagree that the system does not reward individual winning in the NHL. That has to be looked at individually. Some teams will get more of a bump than others. All depends on a variety of factors.

PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Jul 26 @ 1:58 PM ET
correct. short term pain for long term gain. Comcast can suck up a few years of "down" revenue rather easily and not miss a beat.

also the flyers sold out for 5 straight years way back when they missed the playoffs for 5 straight years. 88 was an obvious help. Can MM be that guy to an extent?

- hello it's me 2050


Why didn't they do that with the 76ers then?


hello it's me 2050
Location: AR
Joined: 05.14.2021

Jul 26 @ 2:01 PM ET
There is a lot of inertia with these dynasties. You should know. How long did the Flyers milk the Broad St Bullies brand? That is why Hawks took so long to break it up finally and why the Pens still don't. Those Florida teams, otoh, their floor is much lower. And I suspect this plays a part in the "ruthlessness" of Tampa.

Problem is, it is hard to build those dynasties. The rewards are uncertain. The costs are certain.

If teams had an economic incentive to pursue wins, why on earth would you ever see a team not go for it? They would all the time. They pursue winning for hockey glory, and they bring in fans? There would be no downside to it.

But that is not the way the incentives are structured. The system simply does not reward individual winning in the NHL.

- PT21

thanks Clark
Flyers_01
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 10.03.2006

Jul 26 @ 2:01 PM ET
Why didn't they do that with the 76ers then?
- PT21


https://www.nbcsports.com...ame-to-piss-off-nba-76ers

The NBA put their foot down, not the owners.

Edit : Correction. I forgot that Comcast sold the 76ers.
hello it's me 2050
Location: AR
Joined: 05.14.2021

Jul 26 @ 2:02 PM ET
Why didn't they do that with the 76ers then?
- PT21

Do what? Comcast hasn't owned the sixers in what 13 years or so.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 26 @ 2:13 PM ET
Why didn't they do that with the 76ers then?
- PT21


Comcast sold the Sixers to Josh Harris in 2011.
Flyerloon
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Phoenix, AZ
Joined: 12.06.2021

Jul 26 @ 2:16 PM ET
Tanking is what Chicago has been doing, trading away all your good forwards for draft picks. Being bad for a while is the Flyers or the Devils. The difference is, Devils have drafted better.
- WhiskeyMan



The difference is the Devils got 2 no1 overall picks to build a team around. We would look a lot different if we had those picks.
Flyerloon
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Phoenix, AZ
Joined: 12.06.2021

Jul 26 @ 2:22 PM ET
Someone needs to buy this team from comcast and get an owner who will actually give a poop about winning a cup and the process it takes to get there and sustain it for a 5 year window.


This rinse and repeat poop is the FLYERS!!!


In short fuuck this team and there 3 headed retaard system. I am done, will only watch highlights.


Officially a Anaheim Ducks fan, at least they will make the hard move to get better and not blow smoke up everyone ass.
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Jul 26 @ 2:37 PM ET
Do what? Comcast hasn't owned the sixers in what 13 years or so.
- hello it's me 2050


Incur short term losses for long term gains.

Where did they draft once it became very clear that the Answer was not the answer? That he needed more elite talent around him? Mid to late first round, mostly. The Sixers trode water till the water ran out, then they sold.

And oh, you don't say.


hello it's me 2050
Location: AR
Joined: 05.14.2021

Jul 26 @ 2:49 PM ET
Incur short term losses for long term gains.

Where did they draft once it became very clear that the Answer was not the answer? That he needed more elite talent around him? Mid to late first round, mostly. The Sixers trode water till the water ran out, then they sold.

And oh, you don't say.

- PT21

what does that have to do with your original question of why didn't comcast do that with the sixers?



jd250
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.12.2018

Jul 26 @ 3:07 PM ET
Travis Konecny is an integral part of the fabric of our team and we are thrilled to have him under contract for the long-term," general manager Daniel Briere said. "Travis has grown into a significant leader on our team and he truly embodies what it means to be a Flyer. His work ethic, combined with his tenacity and talent makes him a central figure for what we are building towards, and his determination for our future success speaks volumes about his commitment to our team and city.
- Danny Briere

Yes, TK is the face of the franchise, now for the next 9 years at most.
Flyers_01
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 10.03.2006

Jul 26 @ 3:08 PM ET
This is something i hadn't seen anywhere else.

https://www.yardbarker.co...ontract/s1_17219_40658952

Even a buyout is mostly out of the equation; Konecny is getting a massive portion of his money in signing bonuses each year, and the Flyers cannot save that money in a buyout.

So much for the Atkinson option down the road. Briere gave the huge middle finger to the team down the road. I don't think Fletch even went that far.

I guess this will save the Flyers from having TK account for significant dead money against the cap
hello it's me 2050
Location: AR
Joined: 05.14.2021

Jul 26 @ 3:09 PM ET
Yes, TK is the face of the franchise, now for the next 9 years at most.
- jd250

"he truly embodies what it means to be a Flyer."

yes a loser on a losing team. Such a shame to read that. There is no hope but pure luck
Letterkenney
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Dementia Patient in the White House, DC, PA
Joined: 03.20.2020

Jul 26 @ 3:31 PM ET
There was a never a possibility of a deal without a NTC involved. Only way to avoid that was to trade him.
- MJL


BINGO!!! I like TK but right now should be asset accumulation and maximum cap flexibility for down the road FA/Trade acquisitions that will match the timeline of their young player development with increased potential to get into cup contention. Therefore, TK should have been traded either now, or let his extension ride into the season. The net result now will be expensive aging contracts for declining players with nearly zero cap flexibility. As someone else posted here, that means they'll likely trade Farabee before he reaches his peak capabilities, which he will do elsewhere.

Same old story. Rinse and repeat.
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Jul 26 @ 3:31 PM ET
How do you figure the costs are certain? Does everyone need to spend to the cap? Buyout players? Buyout multiple coaches? Pay the coach $4 mill/yr? Pay a large analytic staff to build trade apps? etc.

Costs may have a minimum but they aren't fixed unless you are the Coyotes (RIP).

The downside is this, building a winner takes years and rarely is the front office who started it around for the end. Zito didn't draft any of the top 4 overall picks the Panthers drafted. In the list i published earlier, the current Devils GM didn't draft the first 2 #1 overall picks on their roster. Dale Tallon built the Blackhawks dynasty, only for Scottie's son Stan to get the glory.

That's why company CEOs do crazy things that hurt the company long term so that they can hit bonus figures this year. Execs are more worried about money today than glory tomorrow.

What benefits the team/company long term don't necessary benefit the people in charge of making decisions today.

Briere/Jones won't be here in 8 years to deal with Konecny/Sanheim/Couts/Tippet but it's better for them if the team is viewed as "good" today when they eventually are replaced.

The only guarantees are death and taxes. If you want guarantees you shouldn't watch sports.

- Flyers_01


There will be a 5-10% drop in tix sales during rebuild years . NHL franchises are heavily dependent on tix sales. Those costs are what I mean are certain.

The upside is a Chicago style run. But it could end up being Buffalo, Ottawa, Detroit, even Toronto. 0 to marginal playoff success. So the upside is random and those certain costs may not yield certain payoffs.

Sorry if I wasn't clear earlier.

PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Jul 26 @ 3:33 PM ET
what does that have to do with your original question of why didn't comcast do that with the sixers?
- hello it's me 2050


Your original statement was:

"Comcast can suck up a few years of "down" revenue rather easily and not miss a beat"

Quite apart from not doing it with the Flyers, they also did not do it with the Sixers when AI was sort of the Sixers Giroux 2000-2010 odd.

hello it's me 2050
Location: AR
Joined: 05.14.2021

Jul 26 @ 3:35 PM ET
Your original statement was:

"Comcast can suck up a few years of "down" revenue rather easily and not miss a beat"

Quite apart from not doing it with the Flyers, they also did not do it with the Sixers when AI was sort of the Sixers Giroux 2000-2010 odd.

- PT21

Just because you didn't do something doesn't mean you can't. Does it?

Comcast can easily suck up “losing” money for several years, if indeed they actually would lose money in that time period. Wouldn’t even resonate in the overall big Comcast picture. Add in getting creative tax wise then offset a portion of it I bet.

They are allowing “hilf” and company to run the show. They are the ones making the call to not tear to down. Not Comcast. You have a different view. Oh well.
hello it's me 2050
Location: AR
Joined: 05.14.2021

Jul 26 @ 3:36 PM ET
There will be a 5-10% drop in tix sales during rebuild years . NHL franchises are heavily dependent on tix sales. Those costs are what I mean are certain.

The upside is a Chicago style run. But it could end up being Buffalo, Ottawa, Detroit, even Toronto. 0 to marginal playoff success. So the upside is random and those certain costs may not yield certain payoffs.

Sorry if I wasn't clear earlier.

- PT21

did they have a drop in ticket sales when they missed the playoffs for 5 years way back when?
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Jul 26 @ 3:46 PM ET
did they have a drop in ticket sales when they missed the playoffs for 5 years way back when?
- hello it's me 2050


Who is the they? Flyers? Way back in early 90s?
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 26 @ 3:57 PM ET
Yes, TK is the face of the franchise, now for the next 9 years at most.
- jd250


No he is not. You still don't know what a face of the franchise player is.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 26 @ 3:59 PM ET
This is something i hadn't seen anywhere else.

https://www.yardbarker.co...ontract/s1_17219_40658952

Even a buyout is mostly out of the equation; Konecny is getting a massive portion of his money in signing bonuses each year, and the Flyers cannot save that money in a buyout.

So much for the Atkinson option down the road. Briere gave the huge middle finger to the team down the road. I don't think Fletch even went that far.

I guess this will save the Flyers from having TK account for significant dead money against the cap

- Flyers_01


Common for top players. I think the fair argument is that Konecny is a good player but not a player that should get this level of a contract.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 26 @ 4:03 PM ET
There will be a 5-10% drop in tix sales during rebuild years . NHL franchises are heavily dependent on tix sales. Those costs are what I mean are certain.

The upside is a Chicago style run. But it could end up being Buffalo, Ottawa, Detroit, even Toronto. 0 to marginal playoff success. So the upside is random and those certain costs may not yield certain payoffs.

Sorry if I wasn't clear earlier.

- PT21


The Flyers arena capacity is 19,537 and they averaged 18,414 this past season. All they had to market was John Tortorella LOL. Add in some exciting youth players and show a promise of the future and this fan base will buy in. They're not hard to buy!
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Jul 26 @ 4:09 PM ET
Just because you didn't do something doesn't mean you can't. Does it?

Comcast can easily suck up “losing” money for several years, if indeed they actually would lose money in that time period. Wouldn’t even resonate in the overall big Comcast picture. Add in getting creative tax wise then offset a portion of it I bet.

They are allowing “hilf” and company to run the show. They are the ones making the call to not tear to down. Not Comcast. You have a different view. Oh well.

- hello it's me 2050


I thought we were trying to determine corporate motives based on behavioral observations. Like a murder mystery. Which incentives most likely generate what we observe.

Your take is they are inept, obdurate, prideful. Having watched this spectacle go on for a long time, I have seen a lot of circumstantial stuff that makes me think otherwise.

To each his own.
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Jul 26 @ 4:11 PM ET
The Flyers arena capacity is 19,537 and they averaged 18,414 this past season. All they had to market was John Tortorella LOL. Add in some exciting youth players and show a promise of the future and this fan base will buy in. They're not hard to buy!
- MJL


Now, compare to 2012-20 (inclusive), when they were a bubble playoff team. Observe the ~ 7% drop in ave. attendance.

Thats your cost.
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