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Forums :: Blog World :: Zach Jarom: Who Are The Hawks Top Five Prospects?
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fattybeef
Joined: 05.04.2010

Aug 21 @ 12:25 PM ET
Matthew Beniers, Seattle center signs for 7 x 7.1M. He burned the 1st year of his ELC coming out of Michigan playing 10 games with 3G and 6A. He then had 57 points in the second season before "slumping" with 37 points last season.
- boilermaker100


Yeah I dunno about these deals. I think you pay the guy for what they've done not trying to be too smart about it.

Other than MacKinnon and I guess ze German in Edmonton - how many times does this actually pay off?

Bedard is on a little bit of a different scale since there is best player in the league potential.
rpeters01
Season Ticket Holder
Joined: 07.09.2016

Aug 21 @ 1:00 PM ET
#2 overall draft choice. Kinda gives an idea what the next Bedard contract will look like.
- 35Tony0

You mean 7 x $14m ?
rpeters01
Season Ticket Holder
Joined: 07.09.2016

Aug 21 @ 1:03 PM ET
Yeah I dunno about these deals. I think you pay the guy for what they've done not trying to be too smart about it.

Other than MacKinnon and I guess ze German in Edmonton - how many times does this actually pay off?

Bedard is on a little bit of a different scale since there is best player in the league potential.

- fattybeef

If he's better than last year he will be
"something" x $10-12m.
35Tony0
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Springfield, IL
Joined: 05.10.2015

Aug 21 @ 2:01 PM ET
You mean 7 x $14m ?
- rpeters01

In two years, that can be entirely possible.
boilermaker100
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.23.2015

Aug 21 @ 2:28 PM ET
Yeah I dunno about these deals. I think you pay the guy for what they've done not trying to be too smart about it.

Other than MacKinnon and I guess ze German in Edmonton - how many times does this actually pay off?

Bedard is on a little bit of a different scale since there is best player in the league potential.

- fattybeef


With the cap going up, I think the new rule of thumb for forwards will be about 1M for every 10 points production. 50 point player = 5-6M AAV, 60 points = 6-7M, 70 points = 7-8M, etc.

Offensive Dmen will get paid more for reaching the above numbers.

In Seattle's case , guess they're betting on the come with Beniers.
totem
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Seattle, WA
Joined: 06.14.2017

Aug 21 @ 2:53 PM ET
Appears that the prospect right expired on August 15 for F Liam Gorman, D Connor Kelly, and G Dominic Basse. No surprise as it didn't look like there was a spot for any of them.

Was curious as Kelly and Basse went back to college, if their rights would extend for another year, but it seems not.

They did for Jake Wise when he went back for a fifth year, but that may have been the college "free COVID year" thing.
Scott1977
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Yorkville, IL
Joined: 08.30.2012

Aug 22 @ 11:34 AM ET
Put this on a previous post so the question to the board would you offer sheet Dawson mercer 3 years 4.5 million per year.
bjphawkfan
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Woodridge, IL
Joined: 07.02.2016

Aug 22 @ 11:50 AM ET
Put this on a previous post so the question to the board would you offer sheet Dawson mercer 3 years 4.5 million per year.
- Scott1977

Has he shown enough to warrant that investment?
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Aug 22 @ 12:15 PM ET
Put this on a previous post so the question to the board would you offer sheet Dawson mercer 3 years 4.5 million per year.
- Scott1977


I wouldn't do it. Look at guys like Chinakhov in CBUS. Better player signed for less. I get that the Blues just acquired two guys for what appears to be a song, but both are overpriced. NJ also has the room to match the offer and not be in dire straits. What does that gain you?

I get that the Hawks have enough cap space to do such a thing and not really be impacted all that much, but I don't think you do it just to do it. If you are trading him for Reichel, sure, maybe that moves the needle, but the Hawks currently have a full roster. If injuries hit or other moves are made, maybe that changes the discussion, but I wouldn't now.
boilermaker100
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.23.2015

Aug 22 @ 12:25 PM ET
Friedman reporting McGroarty to Pittsburgh.

https://x.com/FriedgeHNIC...amp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
rpeters01
Season Ticket Holder
Joined: 07.09.2016

Aug 22 @ 12:26 PM ET
With the cap going up, I think the new rule of thumb for forwards will be about 1M for every 10 points production. 50 point player = 5-6M AAV, 60 points = 6-7M, 70 points = 7-8M, etc.

Offensive Dmen will get paid more for reaching the above numbers.

In Seattle's case , guess they're betting on the come with Beniers.

- boilermaker100

It's probably worse than this, but not much yet.
boilermaker100
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.23.2015

Aug 22 @ 12:47 PM ET
Friedman reporting McGroarty to Pittsburgh.

https://x.com/FriedgeHNIC...amp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

- boilermaker100


Looks like McGroarty to PIT for Braden Yager.

https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/

Yager was drafted a few slots ahead of Moore in 2023.
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Aug 22 @ 12:47 PM ET
Friedman reporting McGroarty to Pittsburgh.

https://x.com/FriedgeHNIC...amp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

- boilermaker100


Interesting to see what PIT could offer up in return.
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Aug 22 @ 12:57 PM ET
Looks like McGroarty to PIT for Braden Yager.

https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/

Yager was drafted a few slots ahead of Moore in 2023.

- boilermaker100


Wow. I can only think that this was done with the intention that Rutger would go pro immediately instead of going back to school. Can't think of any other reason to make this trade?
boilermaker100
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.23.2015

Aug 22 @ 1:05 PM ET
Wow. I can only think that this was done with the intention that Rutger would go pro immediately instead of going back to school. Can't think of any other reason to make this trade?
- Chunk


Yep. Dubas must think McGroarty is ready to sign and earn a roster spot. Yager is still in juniors and will probably be in the AHL next year so he's still maybe 3 years away from helping out. McG better fits the Crosby/Malkin timeline.
Scott1977
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Yorkville, IL
Joined: 08.30.2012

Aug 22 @ 1:14 PM ET
I wouldn't do it. Look at guys like Chinakhov in CBUS. Better player signed for less. I get that the Blues just acquired two guys for what appears to be a song, but both are overpriced. NJ also has the room to match the offer and not be in dire straits. What does that gain you?

I get that the Hawks have enough cap space to do such a thing and not really be impacted all that much, but I don't think you do it just to do it. If you are trading him for Reichel, sure, maybe that moves the needle, but the Hawks currently have a full roster. If injuries hit or other moves are made, maybe that changes the discussion, but I wouldn't now.

- Chunk

Was just a thought I like him as a player and imo has a lot more upside to his game. Also this offersheet thing that st.louis might become a trend or maybe not. There other players Hawks could possibly offersheet in the future.
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Aug 22 @ 1:27 PM ET
Was just a thought I like him as a player and imo has a lot more upside to his game. Also this offersheet thing that st.louis might become a trend or maybe not. There other players Hawks could possibly offersheet in the future.
- Scott1977


I get what you are saying. Seems a few here have regrets that Stan picked Reichel over Mercer - which I also understand. I just don't think RFA tender offers are really that effective. Unless you have a really unique situation like the Oilers were in most of the time they are just matched. If they aren't matched you are almost universally stuck with a player who is overpriced (Look at Penner, Kotkaniemi, Holloway - probably the only reasonable one - and Broberg).
BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

Aug 22 @ 1:34 PM ET
Yep. Dubas must think McGroarty is ready to sign and earn a roster spot. Yager is still in juniors and will probably be in the AHL next year so he's still maybe 3 years away from helping out. McG better fits the Crosby/Malkin timeline.
- boilermaker100


I tell you that's why Winnipeg is always relevant, they always find someone to give something up for a disgruntled player.
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Aug 22 @ 2:17 PM ET
I tell you that's why Winnipeg is always relevant, they always find someone to give something up for a disgruntled player.
- BetweenTheDots


They do seem to be able to get something of value for disgruntled players (although I'd say Laine for Dubois was a notable downgrade and they ultimately needed to trade Dubois as well).

I think we can argue a bit about their relevance. Since their return in 2011 (13 seasons), they've missed the playoffs 6 times and had first round losses 5 more. They've made it to the Conference finals once. Four second place finishes in their division and one 3rd in that span.

I think the bigger question is why do they keep having disgruntled players?
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Aug 22 @ 2:22 PM ET
That was my prediction, especially when Hollaway was 2x, and Broberg was 4x predicted salary by AFP analytics.

Let alone Holloway was scheduled in as 4c, and Broberg as 3rd pairing defenseman this year.

- LAHawk


Some extra background on the Oilers before they were offer sheeted:

https://nhlrumors.com/wha...lopment-paths/2024/08/22/

“Some other info that we know. The Oilers did enter into negotiations with Broberg before these offer sheets happened. Two years at $1.1 million was their offer, according to Broberg agent Darren Ferris.
LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

Aug 22 @ 2:24 PM ET
I tell you that's why Winnipeg is always relevant, they always find someone to give something up for a disgruntled player.
- BetweenTheDots


Well they do seem to have far more disgruntled player's than any other team so I wouldn't exactly consider it a positive regarding "look how many disgruntled player's they are able to move" than why do the Jets have so many disgruntled players?

totem
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Seattle, WA
Joined: 06.14.2017

Aug 22 @ 3:29 PM ET
Yep. Dubas must think McGroarty is ready to sign and earn a roster spot. Yager is still in juniors and will probably be in the AHL next year so he's still maybe 3 years away from helping out. McG better fits the Crosby/Malkin timeline.
- boilermaker100


Yeager is a good scorer and is closer to home (he's from Saskatoon), so maybe he will like being in WPG. Seems like a good hockey trade for both teams.
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Aug 22 @ 3:55 PM ET
Appears that the prospect right expired on August 15 for F Liam Gorman, D Connor Kelly, and G Dominic Basse. No surprise as it didn't look like there was a spot for any of them.

Was curious as Kelly and Basse went back to college, if their rights would extend for another year, but it seems not.

They did for Jake Wise when he went back for a fifth year, but that may have been the college "free COVID year" thing.

- totem


Wasn't that the guy that KD just traded a random 6th rounder for a couple years ago? That was the strangest trade at the time.
totem
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Seattle, WA
Joined: 06.14.2017

Aug 22 @ 5:12 PM ET
Wasn't that the guy that KD just traded a random 6th rounder for a couple years ago? That was the strangest trade at the time.
- Chunk


it was, at the 2022 draft. Couldn't figure why they did that as he never seemed to be in the plans. Not sure if he even came to any of the prospect camps. He's going to play in the ECHL this year.
jhawk59
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.15.2013

Aug 22 @ 7:07 PM ET
Well they do seem to have far more disgruntled player's than any other team so I wouldn't exactly consider it a positive regarding "look how many disgruntled player's they are able to move" than why do the Jets have so many disgruntled players?
- LAHawk

We have heard players do not want to play in Winnipeg sometimes the location - the middle of no where and social life ends early each night - or the issue is unhappiness their role on the team.

I question moving a center for a wing given how much longer until Crosby is lesss effective or gets traded even retires. But to be competitive next year or two Yager probably not as helpful and maybe one AHL season away
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