I think any team, Leafs included, would want a guy like Tavares to shore up their middle/bottom six with a solid veteran player who should still have some gas left in the tank - if the price is right. Rare Jewel thinks he's a league minimum player, but JT and his agent are going to expect top-six money for middle/bottom six production. The truth is somewhere in the middle between Jewel's lowball valuation and JT's agent who will still want several million per.

Thing is, somebody is going to overpay for JT on his next contract. Whether it's the Leafs or not remains to be seen, but it's going to be an overpay.

In some ways, it's similar to the Stamkos situation. Stamkos might earn that $8m the first season or two if he stays healthy, but the outlook on that contract isn't good. I like Stamkos and hated to see him leave the Lightning, but Briesbois did the right thing for the team by not backing up the bank truck.

If JT wants Stamkos money (or close to it), then I'd trade him or let him walk.
- GalacticStone

Stammer had over 80pts the past two seasons, Tavares 80 and 65.....I dont think JT asks for anything higher than in the 6 million range.
If he stays with the leafs, I think that's his number....if he goes to FA, I could someone shelling out 7m per.

why would JT want or expect Stamkos money?
- drexel

Will sign Giroux's contract

https://x.com/FriedgeHNIC...tatus/1823356215209967767

St. Louis saying (frank) you to Edmonton.
- GreatGigInTheSky

I like Broberg...but what the actual (frank)?

Will sign Giroux's contract
- AdamFrench

Then what will Giroux do?

Then what will Giroux do?

- Fakepartofme

Grab a cops ass?

https://x.com/FriedgeHNIC...tatus/1823356215209967767

St. Louis saying (frank) you to Edmonton.
- GreatGigInTheSky

a 2nd and 3rd round pick for both players

I like Broberg...but what the actual (frank)?
- AdamFrench

That one has a good chance not to be matched.... way too much for a guy that couldn't beat Cody (frank)ing Ceci for a spot in the lineup.

Oilers will match Holloway in a heartbeat imho.

That one has a good chance not to be matched.... way too much for a guy that couldn't beat Cody (frank)ing Ceci for a spot in the lineup.

Oilers will match Holloway in a heartbeat imho.
- Scabeh

Lolgrin at 3MM looks better this morning

Lolgrin at 3MM looks better this morning
- drexel

i know im in the minority, but i dont think his deal is bad.

also just used puckpedia and its not great visually

Grab a cops ass?
- AdamFrench

nice

Grab a cops ass?
- AdamFrench

That seems like the logical next step.

That seems like the logical next step.
- Fakepartofme

a 2nd and 3rd round pick for both players
- dmnted

Cant wait to hear what Marek will have to say about this on the ra......hmm nevermind.
Apparently each offer is 1$ under the next bump in prospects owed.

Broberg deal seems like too much for a player with only 81 games and 13pts under his belt.

For the first time in forever the leafs finally may be able to accumulate cap space for the TDL.

Stammer had over 80pts the past two seasons, Tavares 80 and 65.....I dont think JT asks for anything higher than in the 6 million range.
If he stays with the leafs, I think that's his number....if he goes to FA, I could someone shelling out 7m per.
- Fakepartofme

Good lord, waaaaaay too high.

He's declining.

He can't play 3rd line centre (other than key faceoffs), so you need to shift him to 2nd line left wing.

Hint: he won't be the best winger on that line.

So he needs to fit into a salary structure where he's not making a lot of money on the 2nd line - or we are better off with Knies or another guy on the cheap.

It's got to be around $4M, or it just doesn't work.

For the first time in forever the leafs finally may be able to accumulate cap space for the TDL.
- Santo_44

fire a doobas eh!

Good lord, waaaaaay too high.

He's declining.

He can't play 3rd line centre (other than key faceoffs), so you need to shift him to 2nd line left wing.

Hint: he won't be the best winger on that line.

So he needs to fit into a salary structure where he's not making a lot of money on the 2nd line - or we are better off with Knies or another guy on the cheap.

It's got to be around $4M, or it just doesn't work.
- Atomic Wedgie

I’m in agreement with this. Even with the cap going up and you can’t overpay him. 4x4 would probably be my max on him.

I’m in agreement with this. Even with the cap going up and you can’t overpay him. 4x4 would probably be my max on him.
- bryant

If JT is only offered 4 years it will be for more than Tanev got for 6. My guess since JT is still producing more than an average 2nd line C by about 15P is he’ll get $6 mill a year at 4 years or he’ll get something very similar to Tanev at 6 years.

It’s what the cap will be worth at the end of the contract that matters, not its current value. It should rise about 5% a year.

Good lord, waaaaaay too high.

He's declining.

He can't play 3rd line centre (other than key faceoffs), so you need to shift him to 2nd line left wing.

Hint: he won't be the best winger on that line.

So he needs to fit into a salary structure where he's not making a lot of money on the 2nd line - or we are better off with Knies or another guy on the cheap.

It's got to be around $4M, or it just doesn't work.
- Atomic Wedgie

i think you are overstating his declining a bit
he did have a bit of bad luck last season at least in terms of expected stats.

but 4 mil or maybe a bit more, if shorter term id say

i think you are overstating his declining a bit
he did have a bit of bad luck last season at least in terms of expected stats.

but 4 mil or maybe a bit more, if shorter term id say
- senstroll

That and the average point production for a 2nd line C in the NHL is only around 50P

i think you are overstating his declining a bit
he did have a bit of bad luck last season at least in terms of expected stats.

but 4 mil or maybe a bit more, if shorter term id say
- senstroll

I fully concede that projecting his decline is more conjecture and voodoo than science, but let's just do simple back of the envelope math (and by "math, I mean "math, simple extrapolation, and yes - voodoo):

Last year, his decline over the year before was 18.75%.

Which is not unheard of when a player reaches 33 years of age.

Let's just say that his decline will be linear, instead of a more precipitous decline.

That means this year - the last year of his contract - he'll hit 53 points.

Then let's say the Leafs offer him a 4-year contract (no way in hell I'd do more than 3, but hey, it's summer and we have nothing to talk about).

The numbers on a simple, straight regression would look like this:

2025-26: 43 points

2026-27: 35 points

2027-28: 28 points

2028-29: 23 points.

Now you may criticize my simple formula, saying it puts too much weight on a 1-season decline.

But there's a lot to suggest that the numbers would dip much more severely in the next five years:

His ice time will inevitably decline.

His PP time will inevitably decline.

Father Time is one cruel Mother-Bozaker.

In my eyes, the only way it makes financial sense to re-sign Tavares is if he takes a 3-year deal, and it's at a number that pays him as a secondary winger that makes scores less than 30-35 points a year.

We can get a guy to replace those numbers at the UFA winger store for $3.5M any July 1st. And we can get that guy in the "Plays a Heavy Game" aisle.

Good lord, waaaaaay too high.

He's declining.

He can't play 3rd line centre (other than key faceoffs), so you need to shift him to 2nd line left wing.

Hint: he won't be the best winger on that line.

So he needs to fit into a salary structure where he's not making a lot of money on the 2nd line - or we are better off with Knies or another guy on the cheap.

It's got to be around $4M, or it just doesn't work.
- Atomic Wedgie

JT is good enough to be a 3rd line centre. Not sure I would want him in the top six. His defensive skills are limited. Manage his minutes, move him off the 1st PP unit. I think the next deal is for less than $4M per season. He might not finish his career as a Leaf.

JT is good enough to be a 3rd line centre. Not sure I would want him in the top six. His defensive skills are limited.
- winsix

No, he isn't. Tavares absolutely sucks defensively (which you admit) and is what you'd expect from your 3rd line C.

Manage his minutes, move him off the 1st PP unit. I think the next deal is for less than $4M per season. He might not finish his career as a Leaf.

Stamkos is making 8 AAV a year in an income tax free state but Tavares signs for under 4 AAV to play in Toronto? If you're expecting that, you're basically expecting or hoping he has a career worst year this season then signs for less. But then I don't know why you'd want to sign him if he proves he's in steep offensive decline. And I don't know why'd he sign for half of what he can make if he doesn't offensively decline.

But there's a lot to suggest that the numbers would dip much more severely in the next five years:

His ice time will inevitably decline.

His PP time will inevitably decline.

Father Time is one cruel Mother-Bozaker.

In my eyes, the only way it makes financial sense to re-sign Tavares is if he takes a 3-year deal, and it's at a number that pays him as a secondary winger that makes scores less than 30-35 points a year.

We can get a guy to replace those numbers at the UFA winger store for $3.5M any July 1st. And we can get that guy in the "Plays a Heavy Game" aisle.
- Atomic Wedgie

You could explain this 8 different ways. Some people just won't get it.