I'm not there yet. He's generating a pretty decent amount offensively but, like a few Leafs, are just not executing offensively. His offensive metrics are pretty good compared to guys like McMann and Domi and they're much better than a guy like Holmberg. He's the one offensive guy that hasn't got any real chance in the top 6 (McMann, Patches, and Domi all have).

And, you'd think that maybe he's being insulated by Berube or that his defensive numbers suck ass but they don't. In fact, they're really good relative to a lot of those same names above.

If it were me (whether I wanted to trade him or develop him) I'd bump him up and get him with one of the big 3 for a stint. I think he'd go off and bag a few. That's a good thing no matter what we plan to do with him.
- The Law

The good I see in Robertson is his work ethic. He works hard. The bad I see right now, which I think is precipitated by his lack of scoring, is that he is shooting literally too much. Like Nick Robertson leads all forwards in Low Danger Chances For / 60 - he gets the puck and he just rips it at the net hoping for anything to happen. More often than not it's a turnover of possession or a frozen puck ending any potential zone momentum. The other thing is that his work effort is sometimes too chaotic for me. He's on both sides of the ice, not really working with his linemates. Maybe if he potted one or two that would settle down, but right now his game doesn't look _coached_.

The other thing is that he does a decent job of being in the way - again his work ethic is good - but he doesn't win a lot of those battles. I find he's just being outmuscled in tight quarters and he, as Santo said, isn't really finding a lot of pockets of ice in any dangerous area.

Yeah, except Makar and Josi have shots slightly better than Marner's Mite level one, so that threat is always there to force adjustments. With Marner, everybody knows he's not going to shoot it, so they can fade on him and focus on the shooters.
- gravyface

Having JT and Knies offsets that.

You can't cover all options with that unit.

The main goal is to free up Matthews and Nylander and have guys who can score around the net. This sets it up beautifully.

The only concern is giving up shorthanded goals.

Having JT and Knies offsets that.

You can't cover all options with that unit.

The main goal is to free up Matthews and Nylander and have guys who can score around the net. This sets it up beautifully.

The only concern is giving up shorthanded goals.
- Santo_44

Well, we'll see. I have little faith in what they're doing right now and with 5 forwards, it's more opportunity for overthinking it.

Yeah, except Makar and Josi have shots slightly better than Marner's Mite level one, so that threat is always there to force adjustments. With Marner, everybody knows he's not going to shoot it, so they can fade on him and focus on the shooters.
- gravyface

I'd agree. Marner at the point is like a passing upgrade on Rielly at the point. As a defender you know that as long as you haven't opened up the middle, he's going to outlet to the left or right side. Technically what you're doing is taking one of the best passers in the entire league and reducing him to a pivot.

Now I'm not against having him cycle back and forth from the left side-wall to the top of the umbrella and create some motion, but that motion should involve Matthews parking himself in his spot, shifting, getting lost in traffic and then finding the pocket for the one-timer. Throw Knies in front to create traffic and chaos and maybe screens and deflections, and put Willy out there as a second shooting option because he's got a cannon. I don't care if it's Rielly or OEL at the point. Neither is going to shoot - but the key thing here is motion. Keep moving. Cycle the people and get your shooters into prime shooting areas or have Knies create so much chaos in front that just closing 5 - 10 feet and shooting an accurate wrister is a viable option.

I'm not saying it'll work all the time, but they have the people to gain the zone (Nylander, Matthews, Marner), which is 75% of your work on the PP. Get setup, get moving, move the puck, wear down the D and execute.

What I just said there would be better than a 9% success rate at the NHL level in effectiveness.

I'd agree. Marner at the point is like a passing upgrade on Rielly at the point. As a defender you know that as long as you haven't opened up the middle, he's going to outlet to the left or right side. Technically what you're doing is taking one of the best passers in the entire league and reducing him to a pivot.

Now I'm not against having him cycle back and forth from the left side-wall to the top of the umbrella and create some motion, but that motion should involve Matthews parking himself in his spot, shifting, getting lost in traffic and then finding the pocket for the one-timer. Throw Knies in front to create traffic and chaos and maybe screens and deflections, and put Willy out there as a second shooting option because he's got a cannon. I don't care if it's Rielly or OEL at the point. Neither is going to shoot - but the key thing here is motion. Keep moving. Cycle the people and get your shooters into prime shooting areas or have Knies create so much chaos in front that just closing 5 - 10 feet and shooting an accurate wrister is a viable option.

I'm not saying it'll work all the time, but they have the people to gain the zone (Nylander, Matthews, Marner), which is 75% of your work on the PP. Get setup, get moving, move the puck, wear down the D and execute.

What I just said there would be better than a 9% success rate at the NHL level in effectiveness.
- Monkeypunk

Yeah, my thinking was that if they put in a 5v5 "pushing for a goal" kind of a unit with 2 D who can shoot (EOL and Timmins), they might relax a little and just play like they would if they had possession in the zone, with "hey bonus!" one less defender.

But totally, they're so static out there, it's almost comical. Effective PPs with half the skillset/firepower available are bang bang boom all day every day.

I mean, watching Boston's PP and it's basically Pasta who's at the same elite level as what we can roll out x 3, and it's effortless and potent.

Also, why can't we just park Matthews on his off-side a la Stammer and Ovi? For years... decade even, how often did we watch those guys just teeing up goals all day every day and you're left thinking, "how in the (frank) does that happen? It's so predictable!".

Eventually things will balance out and the result will start coming.
- BINGO!

"We're a process driven organization"

- The past 10 failures

"We're a process driven organization"

- The past 10 failures
- AdamFrench

The problem has been that they kept abandoning the process late in the year.

Also they suck.

the Jays FG projections

https://www.fangraphs.com...&type=steamer&lg=&team=14

call me crazy but id like to add a 7 war player to this team

The good I see in Robertson is his work ethic. He works hard. The bad I see right now, which I think is precipitated by his lack of scoring, is that he is shooting literally too much. Like Nick Robertson leads all forwards in Low Danger Chances For / 60 - he gets the puck and he just rips it at the net hoping for anything to happen. More often than not it's a turnover of possession or a frozen puck ending any potential zone momentum. The other thing is that his work effort is sometimes too chaotic for me. He's on both sides of the ice, not really working with his linemates. Maybe if he potted one or two that would settle down, but right now his game doesn't look _coached_.

The other thing is that he does a decent job of being in the way - again his work ethic is good - but he doesn't win a lot of those battles. I find he's just being outmuscled in tight quarters and he, as Santo said, isn't really finding a lot of pockets of ice in any dangerous area.
- Monkeypunk

I feel like this is an inevitable outcome. You play any skilled guy in the bottom 6 without the benefit of other top6 talent it's always going to go that way.

He was a 20g guy in limited minutes last year ...that didn't just disappear. He's always produced when given the opportunity to play up in lineup.

None of this is to say he's a "keeper" for me. But I just don't agree with the he's a problem. We're 4GF and 2GA when he's on the ice (with limited minutes and playing largely with bottom 6 types). And, impressively and surprisingly, the Leaves have been very good defensively when he's on the ice. The last 2-3 games teams have targeted their best lines onto the Domi-McMann-Robertson line ..and it's held up really well. He's a part of that.

I'd shuffle the top 3 lines a bit although really I think they're going to be ups and down until that get that real 3C and get Domi back to the wing.

the Jays FG projections

https://www.fangraphs.com...&type=steamer&lg=&team=14

call me crazy but id like to add a 7 war player to this team
- senstroll

The bidding for Soto starts at 700M!?

the Jays FG projections

https://www.fangraphs.com...&type=steamer&lg=&team=14

call me crazy but id like to add a 7 war player to this team
- senstroll

fatso Kirk sucks and hes at 2? lolz

The bidding for Soto starts at 700M!?
- The Law

i dont think it starts there. but maybe 580-650?
total guess

fatso Kirk sucks and hes at 2? lolz
- drexel

the Kirk hate is dumb

So when do we get Mike's eulogy?

Sadly, the new arrangement was simply not working out. Mike and I have each been putting in 100-hour work weeks between our other work (Flyers website and all Flyers Alumni content platforms in my case, Sabres-related freelance in Mike's) and HockeyBuzz. It's unsustainable.

As such, both Mike and I reached heartbreaking realizations. The time has come to let HockeyBuzz go and pursue other opportunities. I want to thank Dwayne for giving me a space of my very own on HockeyBuzz from which to grow and shape to my personal and professional needs for nearly two decades.

i dont think it starts there. but maybe 580-650?
total guess
- senstroll

The 700M ask/start came from a Heyman report. Heyman is tight with Boras so I think it was Boras's way of telling teams where he expects their offers to be.

Now it'll be up to teams as to whether they're prepared to go there.

So when do we get Mike's eulogy?

Sadly, the new arrangement was simply not working out. Mike and I have each been putting in 100-hour work weeks between our other work (Flyers website and all Flyers Alumni content platforms in my case, Sabres-related freelance in Mike's) and HockeyBuzz. It's unsustainable.

As such, both Mike and I reached heartbreaking realizations. The time has come to let HockeyBuzz go and pursue other opportunities. I want to thank Dwayne for giving me a space of my very own on HockeyBuzz from which to grow and shape to my personal and professional needs for nearly two decades.
- AdamFrench

Source?

The 700M ask/start came from a Heyman report. Heyman is tight with Boras so I think it was Boras's way of telling teams where he expects their offers to be.

Now it'll be up to teams as to whether they're prepared to go there.
- The Law

Ohtani's contract shouldn't be the baseline given that he is both a pitcher and a batter. The contract he signed with the Dodgers wasn't expecting him to be exclusively a batter - merely a batter last year.

Judge signed for $40m/year. I think it's a safe argument that Ohtani is about $40m year as a batter and $30m / year as a pitcher.

So they want to get close to $50-60m / year for Soto as a batter?

Somewhere in these deals there's a losing value proposition.

the Jays FG projections

https://www.fangraphs.com...&type=steamer&lg=&team=14

call me crazy but id like to add a 7 war player to this team
- senstroll

You’re crazy !!!

🤪

Source?
- Atomic Wedgie

The best blogger on the site in his latest.

So when do we get Mike's eulogy?

Sadly, the new arrangement was simply not working out. Mike and I have each been putting in 100-hour work weeks between our other work (Flyers website and all Flyers Alumni content platforms in my case, Sabres-related freelance in Mike's) and HockeyBuzz. It's unsustainable.

As such, both Mike and I reached heartbreaking realizations. The time has come to let HockeyBuzz go and pursue other opportunities. I want to thank Dwayne for giving me a space of my very own on HockeyBuzz from which to grow and shape to my personal and professional needs for nearly two decades.
- AdamFrench

Jesus.

What the hell is this site going to be without Leafs and Flyers bloggers?

last blog everyone

Ohtani's contract shouldn't be the baseline given that he is both a pitcher and a batter. The contract he signed with the Dodgers wasn't expecting him to be exclusively a batter - merely a batter last year.

Judge signed for $40m/year. I think it's a safe argument that Ohtani is about $40m year as a batter and $30m / year as a pitcher.

So they want to get close to $50-60m / year for Soto as a batter?

Somewhere in these deals there's a losing value proposition.
- Monkeypunk

I assume Boras/Soto aren't as dialed in on the limits that come with the comparability of Ohtani and Soto as most of us are. There are no rules per se. They'll take the best offer and Boras is trying to make sure it's better than teams thought they'd have to pay.

I'm not saying it'll work (time will tell) ...but it's the proper way to negotiate when you have the best thing available at market.

the Kirk hate is dumb
- senstroll

Consider the source.

Well, we'll see. I have little faith in what they're doing right now and with 5 forwards, it's more opportunity for overthinking it.
- gravyface

Agree with you on this Gravy.

The bomb shot from the point that keeps the opposing team's PK honest and spread out is the biggest part of what they're missing.

Add to that the fact that no one believes Marner is clapping one from the point or shooting period and then a 5 on 4 turns into a 4 on 3 against the Leafs for shot threats alone.

IMO you need at least 4 players who are willing to shoot and one passer, I would prefer 5 threats of shooting on the PP.

And (frank) the forced seam passes that have to find their way through 8 pairs of legs, why, because the other team can collapse and clog the down low net front because "no clapper" as a threat from the point.

Leafs can't spread out the opposition's PK without those shooting threats on the outside and at the blueline.

Clapper at the blueline
Nylander and Matthews at the half wall
Knies or JT net front
Marner and his fancy poop setting up and roaming around the zone