So that is true.

Well i think it's natural for the opponent to make a push to tie the game up because of desperation the less time there is on the clock.

As I've said before they've had so many chances with a 2 on 1 or breakaway because the opponent is losing and taking risks of overloading the offensive zone, they just have not been able to capitalize on them yet.

I don't think it helps that LR keeps juggling the lines up. To add to the line juggling we have essentially 9 different starters in the line up this year, need some time for them to gel.

Curious to see how this next quarter of games go. I hope i didn't jinx them talking about how well they've been playing defense.

An interesting note though is high danger chances? High danger shots on net? This is an interesting difference, I'm not going to look into it further but i need more insight on these categories. I'd love to know how many high danger chances and high danger shots on net were contested and uncontested? I really believe that is a very important variable in understanding this metric better. I've seen many high danger chances harmlessly get to Mrazek because there was a dman not allowing the forward to get a full shot on goal.
- BetweenTheDots

Also, it's a pity they don't have the charts but this is an article from before Dallas hired DeBoer who is similar to McLellen or Daryl and wants volume shooting. Goes into does chance type matter and its yes but also no.

You wouldn't believe it watching Boston but that is one of Montgomery's things as well.

LR has also mentioned he wants more shots.

Anyway - summery is - high danger chances and shots don't matter if it impacts your total volume of shots.

So teams that get a lot of shots in general and a proportionally high number of high danger attempts are going to probably score a lot more goals than a team that gets a lower amount over all chances but proportionally more high danger chances.

https://www.defendingbigd...g-chances-nhl-best-teams/

Here's another fun one related to the predictability of goals. CF and FF are heavily used as measures because the results are pretty consistent. This is looking at a 2018 Devils team.

https://www.allabouttheje...of-the-devilish-statistic

And then here's another one that shows that Corsi is probably the most accurate predictor of success.

https://theleafsnation.co...chances-better-than-corsi

And then this one argus that scoring chances or xGF which is a similar metric is pretty good at predicting if a team will end up in the playoffs:

https://www.foreverbluesh...-chances-scoring-chances/

Crazy though how this team sits on a 1 goal lead. Over 20 minutes now
- BetweenTheDots

Hasn't been a bad game they're just not good enough to score more than 2 goals on a consistent basis.

Hasn't been a bad game they're just not good enough to score more than 2 goals on a consistent basis.
- fattybeef

Yep and as good as Hall was the other day, he was terrible today. Whats with those 3, Bedard Kurashev and Hall skating against 2 or more defenders

Soft goal today was the game winner

Our team speed is just so bad, i can't wait till the kids come up.

What am awful goal to give up
- BetweenTheDots

Mrazek wasn't perfect. Otherwise it was pretty par for the course for this team.

I don't think was much different from the Stars game other than the fact that fewer shots went in. They got 6 goals on 2 xGF vs today they got 2 on 1.23 xGF.

Yep and as good as Hall was the other day, he was terrible today. Whats with those 3, Bedard Kurashev and Hall skating against 2 or more defenders

Soft goal today was the game winner
- BetweenTheDots

Without being overly critical of anyone - it's 3 guys who need the puck on their blade, 3 guys who are very much shoot first and 3 guys who are very much individual effort and refuse to flip the puck deep and keep it simple.

To a certain extent you want Bedard to play like that. To be somewhat critical Hall doesn't have the turbo to blow past guys like he did 8 years ago and Kurshev is gonna Kurshev.

I think you can have two of those guys on a line. I'd go Bertuzzi, Bedard, TT and leave it alone for a month. You got a passer, a shooter and a guy to disrupt the front of the goal and win battles down low.

I also think you need to have a talk with Bedard, show him some Ovechkin and Stamkos tape and "see this spot right here, go there and shoot every time the puck is on your blade even if it isn't a perfect opportunity". He's under 3 shots per game and that is not good for a guy who is a scorer - he should be closer to 70 total shots than 60 even if theyre low percentage shots.

Hasn't been a bad game they're just not good enough to score more than 2 goals on a consistent basis.
- fattybeef

That's been the theme, just not good enough to get over the hump to get that 3rd goal you need to either win or be tied to push for the extra point. It's good that they are in games and rarely getting "blown out" but just can't seem to push the offense enough and part of that is playing a defensive system pretty much all game. Too often the goals we get are just broken plays or weak goaltending, and not enough ability to manufacture some quality chances.

Crevier getting some credit but today was one of those games where to me, he is showing again as more of an AHL d-man who doesn't belong in the NHL. He is big, he has reach, but there isn't much else to his game that I get excited about. I'm not saying he is outright bad with decisions or anything, just that his skillset/ceiling seem like they aren't NHL quality to me.

High danger chances are like Corsi so anything in a high danger area directed at the net. Shots are high danger chances that are shots on goal (not blocked or miss net).

They grade chances and they get an extra point depending on if it is on the rush or rebound.

Explained here:

https://www.naturalstattr...ances%20for%20that%20team.
- fattybeef

This is helpful not only as a refresher for those that new the exact meaning of the fancy stat but even more so for those that didn't.

This is helpful not only as a refresher for those that new the exact meaning of the fancy stat but even more so for those that didn't.
- Mr Ricochet

Looks like another high draft pick again this year. Still 2-3 years away from even thinking about the playoffs. Don't if Conner will like that thought.

That's been the theme, just not good enough to get over the hump to get that 3rd goal you need to either win or be tied to push for the extra point. It's good that they are in games and rarely getting "blown out" but just can't seem to push the offense enough and part of that is playing a defensive system pretty much all game. Too often the goals we get are just broken plays or weak goaltending, and not enough ability to manufacture some quality chances.

Crevier getting some credit but today was one of those games where to me, he is showing again as more of an AHL d-man who doesn't belong in the NHL. He is big, he has reach, but there isn't much else to his game that I get excited about. I'm not saying he is outright bad with decisions or anything, just that his skillset/ceiling seem like they aren't NHL quality to me.
- breadbag

Crevier:
You might be right with your prognosis
However, two things to keep mind 1) He is young how bad does he want to improve and what are his limitations. Remember a slow big dman named Larry Murphy? He played angles so well no matter wherever the attack originated. So Crevier could try to be a solid shut down type on a third pair sticking in NHL by age 26 or whenever. Like not just his reach, but underrated can pass and shoot better than any opponent thought until they found out. He may not ever be a physical banger but maybe if he picks his spots. 2) Teams need defensemen depth throughout season and playoffs - with playoffs it is a marathon. Crevier could become an inexpensive depth guy who does nit have a major weakness

That's been the theme, just not good enough to get over the hump to get that 3rd goal you need to either win or be tied to push for the extra point. It's good that they are in games and rarely getting "blown out" but just can't seem to push the offense enough and part of that is playing a defensive system pretty much all game. Too often the goals we get are just broken plays or weak goaltending, and not enough ability to manufacture some quality chances.

Crevier getting some credit but today was one of those games where to me, he is showing again as more of an AHL d-man who doesn't belong in the NHL. He is big, he has reach, but there isn't much else to his game that I get excited about. I'm not saying he is outright bad with decisions or anything, just that his skillset/ceiling seem like they aren't NHL quality to me.
- breadbag

I think that's the problem with these younger players or inexperienced ones anyway. With some of these guys there's an immediate 'pop' because it's like oh my gosh in the NHL time to turn and burn. And then after a few games things start to even out because you can't go 100% every game in the NHL. The schedule is just too rigorous.

I'd like to see him get 6 or 7 in a row just to see how he reacts. If he's dreadful towards the end that's fine. If he's just ok that fine too. If he settles into a big shot blocky third pairing type then that's neat as well. Him being out there isn't killing them and Jones not being there isn't making a difference either so they have a lot of flexibility in theory.

With Jones out it would have been nice to see Korchinski get a few games and tell him to "be the guy" and see what happens. Worst case they send him back down, best case they have to think really hard about what to do.

Same things with Nazar. Its all well and good to say they want him to work on whatever but at this stage - since they have a spot and guys that can sit - maybe giving him a run of 5 just to see what happens wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. Worst case again he goes back down but maintains his focus on doing the little things, not cheating and dominating the AHL - best case he makes them think really hard about how to make room for him now. It's win win.

Vanacker made his return tonight to the Bulls lineup tonight. He had his sleeves rolled up and was ready to get involved. First thing he does is hit Sennecke into the boards. He has very good wheels, a very powerful skater with good balance. He had a partial breakaway but got in too close and wound up with no net to shoot at. He’s at the bench now being interviewed.

Along with exceptional skating ability, Lardis is also a very good stickhandler. At one point he got around two opponents in succession by tapping pucks through their legs then he ripped a Bedard like shot over the net.

The Gens are wearing their Pride jerseys which has upset the couple behind me.

Crevier:
You might be right with your prognosis
However, two things to keep mind 1) He is young how bad does he want to improve and what are his limitations. Remember a slow big dman named Larry Murphy? He played angles so well no matter wherever the attack originated. So Crevier could try to be a solid shut down type on a third pair sticking in NHL by age 26 or whenever. Like not just his reach, but underrated can pass and shoot better than any opponent thought until they found out. He may not ever be a physical banger but maybe if he picks his spots. 2) Teams need defensemen depth throughout season and playoffs - with playoffs it is a marathon. Crevier could become an inexpensive depth guy who does nit have a major weakness
- jhawk59

I'll be happy if I'm wrong, we need good defenseman for each pair and depth for 7th and 8th spot on the depth chart.

Nazar with a goal and an assist.

Korchinski with an assist.

AJ Spellacy with a nice assist on a shortie.

Vanacker was just in a wrestling match with Zach Sandhu who has about 20 lbs on him. Vanacker flipped him hard onto the ice. Then Sandhu came up swinging. The rematch on Dec. 20 will be a nasty game.

Vanacker was just in a wrestling match with Zach Sandhu who has about 20 lbs on him. Vanacker flipped him hard onto the ice. Then Sandhu came up swinging. The rematch on Dec. 20 will be a nasty game.
- paulr

Great updates, thanks!

Lardis with 2 assists tonight.

I just don’t like Kurashev as a regular in top 6.

I’d have Donato center the top line with Hall and Bedard.

Let Maroon, Reichel and Smith stay together.

TT, Bertuzzi, Foligno

D!ckinson, Mikheyev, Anderson

Kurashev can fill in regularly for Mikheyev, Maroon or Anderson.

Nazar with a goal and an assist.

Korchinski with an assist.

AJ Spellacy with a nice assist on a shortie.
- rickboardman

Dach has the other goal.

Great updates, thanks!

Lardis with 2 assists tonight.
- rickboardman

Lardis with another assist.

Just spitballing’
Florida has a lot of salary to pay out
But the salary cap is quite higher now in 2o24 and may go up significantly next season. One player I like if - a big If because they probably can afford to retain him - is Lundell

Would you give our second first round for him? He is at a point in his career where he might wish to show he can produce more points yet he is behind a stacked number of forwards in Florida.

Would Florida accept that if Lindell asked out?

Just spitballing’
Florida has a lot of salary to pay out
But the salary cap is quite higher now in 2o24 and may go up significantly next season. One player I like if - a big If because they probably can afford to retain him - is Lundell

Would you give our second first round for him? He is at a point in his career where he might wish to show he can produce more points yet he is behind a stacked number of forwards in Florida.

Would Florida accept that if Lindell asked out?
- jhawk59

I think Bennet would go before Lundell based on age and injury history. Lundell is locked up at a fairly reasonable rate for the next few years. Probably depends on how much the cap goes up.

I think Bennet would go before Lundell based on age and injury history. Lundell is locked up at a fairly reasonable rate for the next few years. Probably depends on how much the cap goes up.
- fattybeef

I wouldn’t let Lundell get away if I was Florida GM. My hope is based more upon if Lundell asked out and there is no report of that at least right now.

I want to know why Byfield on LA doesn’t score more. Big kid like him just stand in front of net and get some points. Probably the way he plays on his line but LA Hawk fan would know

I wouldn’t let Lundell get away if I was Florida GM. My hope is based more upon if Lundell asked out and there is no report of that at least right now.

I want to know why Byfield on LA doesn’t score more. Big kid like him just stand in front of net and get some points. Probably the way he plays on his line but LA Hawk fan would know
- jhawk59

I'm thinking if you can maybe take advantage of a situation it would be the Rangers.

I'm thinking if you can maybe take advantage of a situation it would be the Rangers.
- BetweenTheDots

I don’t know if I am fond of the players they want to move. Oh Kreider sure but at what cost? I do NOT want to gamble on Chytill or kappa Kakko (sic). We don’t want Trouba.

Vanacker’s first game back last night, no goals no assists. Obviously that pick was a bust.