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Forums :: Blog World :: Zach Jarom: Game 14: Hawks vs Wings and a personal note
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BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

Nov 30 @ 1:35 PM ET
I understand, but I don’t see any mid-level UFA’s at the Bertuzzi TT level this year. You have the big boys Raantanin, Marner, maybe Borser, them the rest IMO aren’t any improvement.

Forgot you also have Martinez coming off the books do that is $15 mil. You need to replace with some bod(ies)y

- LAHawk


I wonder if maybe since they are building this team from the inside out do they go in the opposite direction and go after Shesterkin? Probably not but he's not signed yet.
fattybeef
Joined: 05.04.2010

Nov 30 @ 1:47 PM ET
I will also say and this is why i am opposed to wheeling and dealing for now. When KD decides or is required to go down this road there's no turning back. I think one of the worst things that could happen is you start wheeling and dealing and your draft picks that you trade away start developing into stars and you're left with okay returns. Then he can become like a gambler who tries to win his money back and doubles down a trade with another trade and gets burned again. In spite of what fans think there is no urgency for now Connor is 19 years old, if he was 23 that's a different story.
- BetweenTheDots


I think adding size (Kakko, Chytil) for a reasonable price is fine since they don't really have that in the system. An actual 2 way center that can score in Norris in the right age bracket - again for the right price - would be something that they don't have. Not sure how many times I have to say right price - which is not throw poop on the wall to see what sticks - but those are players that would make sense.

I don't think they need to go ham. I think they need say ok cool we have lots of lil toolsy guys but maybe not a lot that project out to center. Where can we add some size and perhaps an actual center.

I also think that is why they need to get Nazar into the NHL now and actually figure out if he is a center or wing so they can at least have a reasonable shopping list going into the off season. Not sure what destroying the AHL at this point is proving.
LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

Nov 30 @ 1:53 PM ET
I wonder if maybe since they are building this team from the inside out do they go in the opposite direction and go after Shesterkin? Probably not but he's not signed yet.
- BetweenTheDots


Is KD willing to commit 7 x $12 mil. For a goalie right now? Actually hope not. Then you end up like the Canadiens with Carey Price. Those teams couldn’t score enough either
fattybeef
Joined: 05.04.2010

Nov 30 @ 1:59 PM ET
That would be nice if those guys became available for sure but i think those guys would also choose where they wanted to play.

I really believe KD is going to mirror what the Stars did. He's already drafting high potential skill over size. Be patient in developing those kids. Make trades that make sense and trade for or draft players that fit the culture they are trying to build.

- BetweenTheDots


And what has Dallas won to demonstrate that is how to win a cup?

The model org should be the Avalanche (outside of goaltending at this stage woof). Extremely entertaining hockey, dynamic and entertaining players and ruthless in terms of moving on from certain guys.

Tampa certainly - with all the lil forwards they have are a dynamic and exciting team especially that first line. Also ruthless.

The Capitals have missed the playoffs 9 times in the past 40 years. Talk about a hell of a job retooling and staying relevant for so long without being abhorrent for long periods of time.

Plenty of other organizations that have won a cup or cups and been actually fun to watch.

mohel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 02.08.2013

Nov 30 @ 2:56 PM ET
I agree that Kyle shouldn't pay in trades for kids who are complete reclaimation projects.

I am all for finding a true NHL dominant scorer who you PAY.

- wiz1901


Perfect interview score at the BOD Poster Combine.
Assman22
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: San Francisco, CA
Joined: 04.13.2012

Nov 30 @ 3:25 PM ET
I agree that Kyle shouldn't pay in trades for kids who are complete reclaimation projects.

I am all for finding a true NHL dominant scorer who you PAY.

- wiz1901

Pony up whatever it takes to reel in Rantanen and Ehlers. Sign a vet 2C on a 2 year deal and move Bedard to wing permanently.
paulr
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: YYZ
Joined: 06.26.2011

Nov 30 @ 3:33 PM ET
Pony up whatever it takes to reel in Rantanen and Ehlers. Sign a vet 2C on a 2 year deal and move Bedard to wing permanently.
- Assman22

You don’t see a problem acquiring a 28 and a 29 year old when most of the team’s prospects are two to four years away from being on the team and another year or two after that before they’re ready to be productive?
totem
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Seattle, WA
Joined: 06.14.2017

Nov 30 @ 3:42 PM ET
https://thehockeywriters....ntial-trade-destinations/

This article has a proposed trade:

To OTT: Murphy, 2026 2nd, 2026 4th
To CHI: Norris

If they like Norris this seems like a fair trade. Would probably need to have Jones back before doing it. Allan would need to be ready for RD or maybe Levshunov is ready. Otherwise a vet could play the off-side.

Norris 15 pts in 22 games. Sizable contract (8m per) until 29/30. There's a fair amount of risk to the cap if the young guys pan out.
BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

Nov 30 @ 3:44 PM ET
And what has Dallas won to demonstrate that is how to win a cup?

The model org should be the Avalanche (outside of goaltending at this stage woof). Extremely entertaining hockey, dynamic and entertaining players and ruthless in terms of moving on from certain guys.

Tampa certainly - with all the lil forwards they have are a dynamic and exciting team especially that first line. Also ruthless.

The Capitals have missed the playoffs 9 times in the past 40 years. Talk about a hell of a job retooling and staying relevant for so long without being abhorrent for long periods of time.

Plenty of other organizations that have won a cup or cups and been actually fun to watch.

- fattybeef


All I'm saying is this is where we are right now in terms of the rebuild and where KD is at. In all actuality all those teams you mention were where we are at right now. He's in the position of make me an offer i can't refuse.

Model org the Avs? What are they going to win without Landeskog who has had another set back. They are quickly becoming a one line team again. The Toews deal was fantastic, loser Isles on that deal. By the way they drafted top 10 seven out of eleven years.

Tampa started through the draft and they got hella lucky when Drouin wanted to be traded and Habs lost that trade by a country mile, set back for Habs. Tampa drafted top 10 six out of seven years?

Caps just keep plugging away, but remind me again didn't they have a stretch where they drafted top 5 three out of 4 years?

So what you say is not true all those orgs at some point had a lot of boring hockey because they didn't have talent

I think when the Blackhawks are ready for playoff runs they will be fun to watch because they will be the team that is superior in talent and speed.

Added, looking at their draft history Avs and TB only had 2 extra first round picks

The Caps in that 4 year span had 4 additional first round picks. If you zoom out they had 14 first round picks in that 7 year stretch.
Ztra
Joined: 06.21.2018

Nov 30 @ 4:03 PM ET
If you watched the last 5 minutes of the Rangers/Canadiens game, the price for Kakko went up and the price for Kirby Dach went down.

Kirby Dach. 22 games. 1 goal. 7 assists. A minus 18. $3.3mil cap hit for 2 more years. Yikes.

Hawks selected Nazar with pick they got for Dach.
Scott1977
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Yorkville, IL
Joined: 08.30.2012

Nov 30 @ 4:30 PM ET
https://thehockeywriters....ntial-trade-destinations/

This article has a proposed trade:

To OTT: Murphy, 2026 2nd, 2026 4th
To CHI: Norris

If they like Norris this seems like a fair trade. Would probably need to have Jones back before doing it. Allan would need to be ready for RD or maybe Levshunov is ready. Otherwise a vet could play the off-side.

Norris 15 pts in 22 games. Sizable contract (8m per) until 29/30. There's a fair amount of risk to the cap if the young guys pan out.

- totem

I would do that deal yes Norris has had shoulder issues but when healthy heck of a player. Still young mid 20s. Also would inquire about Pinto and grieg one other player would ask about is voucher maybe change of scenery would help 3rd 4th line power forward.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Nov 30 @ 4:37 PM ET
Still busy cleaning the small parts of this twin hurricane event, but was totally lucky compared to my neighbors/neighborhood where the size of the trees that fell were kinda shocking and the curbside work to the pick up everyone else’s wood piles is just starting and will go one with a promise they will finish early January.
Although I am pulling back the reins on any deep dives into this class it is fun seeing the quality group of longer developmental kids who are not near ready to play against men.
My argument furthering that assumption is how four of the 2025 top kids seemed just so much further along, dominate and ready to make earlier debuts for teams selecting early.
I think I earlier had an opinion that Left Defenseman Schaefer was real good and was going to be difficult to pass on as a best player available; he’s not a necessarily a mailman with the puck but almost every part of his game shows on EVERY shift.
With a quarter of the NHL schedule completed, like you, I regularly go to my day dreams as I se the Blackhawks in a top two position and already have desires on those kids.
Unfortunately (or the reverse fi you are hoping for an ultra successful 2024-25 standings results) it is feady to call a weakar too early to get my hopes up.
I am not ready to call it a weak top end.
Just one where you might do well w/o going first.
I am not sure the quick-handed James Hagens is what the hawks need b/c he is another skilled and fast attacking smaller kid.
I want them to take Port Martone (like probably all of you!) .
All the comparisons to the Tkachuks start to wear on me.
He is perfect for the Hawks as his sense, game and edge work well as he would be tutored by the vet frontline of nHL players having success much later than their draft years. I am not sure where he fits as NHL scorer, just that he currently projects as one; over the decade lots of guys were expected to becoming dominating precesses and didn’t.

It seems clear the Hawks are Ollie Moore is far from advancing quickly to the parent club and of course the guys already in Rockford are the call-ups because they are…

I also think that centre Micheal Misa would be a huge add to the Blackhawks if they are in a slot where he is available. He keepings adding, and his trajectory sees him Martone and defender Schaefer are soon than later ar getting their toes dipped in the NHL pond early.

LC Caleb Desnoyers was asked to play wing as was Micheal Misa with Martione as their centre and they simply dominated.

I know that you will see Anton Frondel high on draft lists but not fo sure his knee surgery has him fall. He is already almost 200 lbs. and since I am not spending afternoons watching him, you have to wonder when he sees his name called.

I also you don’t pass on Roger McQueen if the hawks are on the periphery to the top guys.

I love me some Malcolm Spence (especially when in game one he tried to scare Drew Shock with that peek a boo neck head lunge at his after the whistle.
I am just insecure and am not sure if that is where my top first rounder goes, and might even prefer a reach for goalie Ravenbergen (instead of attempting to move up from that Toronto second first rounder by second their two second rounders away. (They know they only have 50 roster limit in 2029.)

Also I think that the two games CHL-USA prospects games were filled with first & second rounders (duh) and I think many CHL guys in this game will be gone before the 3rd Round 2025.

Anyway I just wanted to check in.
(We just realized that Zach, who is in our fantasy league, hasn’t touch his team since the draft and is still in 6th place.)

- wiz1901


Great to see you posting and even better that you and yours are well, Wiz. ..... I do think the Hawks will end up with a better record than what it appears they will today so who knows where they will draft. But, today, I'm with you that it's Hagens, Mortone, Misa and Sheafer followed by the skilled beastly McQueen in no particular order. Assuming McQueen shows he's healthy I think the Hawks would be thrilled to land any of the 5 of them with the emphasis being centerman Hagens and Misa unless they think Mortone is a Rantanen.

How do you rank Buium and Schaefer? IMO Buium will be the better pro, by a good bit, but I also won't be surprised a bit if in 10 yrs Buium was the best Dman outa the D stacked 2024 draft.

And with that in mind the Hawks drafted Levshunov and allegedly, and smartly I'd add, they tried to move up to take Demidov, not Buium. So, IMO they would have passed twice on a kid who I think will be better than Schaefer.

Unless he's on the board and the Hawks are drafting 6th-7th, when he's obviously the BPA, I don't think they draft Schaefer. .....You?
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Nov 30 @ 5:02 PM ET
Have to give credit, he hasn’t looked out of place. Fleury looks shaky, have to generate some shots.
- Angotti


Lou, I don't think Crevier is going down when they have to make a roster move, I think Allan goes down. ...... As I posted before I was pumped to see what Crevier looked like after all those AHL reps, a 20 game NHL look and a full off season to get ready for this yr.

Loved what I saw in the PHI game, thought he was the Hawks best Dman and the fancies backed that up. Maybe Martinez, but, despite the fancies v DAL and MN I thought it was Crevier who was the best Hawk Dman the last 3 games.

I think he stays up for an extended look see and Allan goes down.

You have to remember you are watching a 6ft 8in kid with 25ish NHL games who won't turn 24 until the offseason. And he's a 7th rd pick... I'd ask does he move like a 6ft 8in player? His he gawky, uncoordinated, heavy footed, glued to the blueline or afraid to jump in as guys who can't read and or skate have to do?

IMO kid moves like an average 6ft 4in NHLer but is 6ft 8in and all the warts that kinda reach can cover and or allows him to become a real shutdown guy.

I guess unlike many I always liked Crevier's reads but he was slow to react to them last yr, and for a 6ft 8in rookie that's to be expected. This yr, and quickly, seemed to me he was much quicker to react to his solid reads and it really shows. ..... At the risk of hot taking right now the most surprising thing to me in the whole system is Soderblom's incredible transformation, Spellacy and then Crevier.

And quickly, if Crevier and Allan show this yr you've got legit 3rd pairing guys, with DVD clearing every hurdle since he was drafted, Phillips despite falling down the depth chart has already exceeded expectations, the Hawks have what 75% of teams need, defenseman, both young and old.


Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Nov 30 @ 5:02 PM ET
Have to give credit, he hasn’t looked out of place. Fleury looks shaky, have to generate some shots.
- Angotti


Lou, I don't think Crevier is going down when they have to make a roster move, I think Allan goes down. ...... As I posted before I was pumped to see what Crevier looked like after all those AHL reps, a 20 game NHL look and a full off season to get ready for this yr.

Loved what I saw in the PHI game, thought he was the Hawks best Dman and the fancies backed that up. Maybe Martinez, but, despite the fancies v DAL and MN I thought it was Crevier who was the best Hawk Dman the last 3 games.

I think he stays up for an extended look see and Allan goes down.

You have to remember you are watching a 6ft 8in kid with 25ish NHL games who won't turn 24 until the offseason. And he's a 7th rd pick... I'd ask does he move like a 6ft 8in player? His he gawky, uncoordinated, no touck/feel for the puck on his stick, heavy footed, glued to the blueline or afraid to jump in as guys who can't read and or skate have to do? Does he hot potato pucks? Seem to understand to take away between the dots?

IMO kid moves like an average 6ft 4in NHLer but is 6ft 8in and all the warts that kinda reach can cover and or allows him to become a real shutdown guy.

I guess unlike many I always liked Crevier's reads but he was slow to react to them last yr, and for a 6ft 8in rookie that's to be expected. This yr, and quickly, seemed to me he was much quicker to react to his solid reads and it really shows. ..... At the risk of hot taking right now the most surprising thing to me in the whole system is Soderblom's incredible transformation, Spellacy and then Crevier.

And quickly, if Crevier and Allan show this yr you've got legit 3rd pairing guys, with DVD clearing every hurdle since he was drafted, Phillips despite falling down the depth chart has already exceeded expectations, the Hawks have what 75% of teams need, defenseman, both young and old.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Nov 30 @ 5:36 PM ET
Also, it's a pity they don't have the charts but this is an article from before Dallas hired DeBoer who is similar to McLellen or Daryl and wants volume shooting. Goes into does chance type matter and its yes but also no.

You wouldn't believe it watching Boston but that is one of Montgomery's things as well.

LR has also mentioned he wants more shots.

Anyway - summery is - high danger chances and shots don't matter if it impacts your total volume of shots.

So teams that get a lot of shots in general and a proportionally high number of high danger attempts are going to probably score a lot more goals than a team that gets a lower amount over all chances but proportionally more high danger chances.

https://www.defendingbigd...g-chances-nhl-best-teams/

Here's another fun one related to the predictability of goals. CF and FF are heavily used as measures because the results are pretty consistent. This is looking at a 2018 Devils team.

https://www.allabouttheje...of-the-devilish-statistic

And then here's another one that shows that Corsi is probably the most accurate predictor of success.

https://theleafsnation.co...chances-better-than-corsi

And then this one argus that scoring chances or xGF which is a similar metric is pretty good at predicting if a team will end up in the playoffs:

https://www.foreverbluesh...-chances-scoring-chances/

- fattybeef


Wow, this will be some fun reading.. Thanks, Fatty.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Nov 30 @ 5:40 PM ET
That's been the theme, just not good enough to get over the hump to get that 3rd goal you need to either win or be tied to push for the extra point. It's good that they are in games and rarely getting "blown out" but just can't seem to push the offense enough and part of that is playing a defensive system pretty much all game. Too often the goals we get are just broken plays or weak goaltending, and not enough ability to manufacture some quality chances.

Crevier getting some credit but today was one of those games where to me, he is showing again as more of an AHL d-man who doesn't belong in the NHL. He is big, he has reach, but there isn't much else to his game that I get excited about. I'm not saying he is outright bad with decisions or anything, just that his skillset/ceiling seem like they aren't NHL quality to me.

- breadbag


Curious what you see about Crevier that doesn't get it done for you? Not to debate you, BB, but you're not alone and I wonder what you guys see that you think prohibits Crevier from being a useful NHLer?

And I know nobody is attacking him and or his weaknesses so I'd assume it's subtle things or just an eye test thing?
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Nov 30 @ 5:56 PM ET
All I'm saying is this is where we are right now in terms of the rebuild and where KD is at. In all actuality all those teams you mention were where we are at right now. He's in the position of make me an offer i can't refuse.

Model org the Avs? What are they going to win without Landeskog who has had another set back. They are quickly becoming a one line team again. The Toews deal was fantastic, loser Isles on that deal. By the way they drafted top 10 seven out of eleven years.

Tampa started through the draft and they got hella lucky when Drouin wanted to be traded and Habs lost that trade by a country mile, set back for Habs. Tampa drafted top 10 six out of seven years?

Caps just keep plugging away, but remind me again didn't they have a stretch where they drafted top 5 three out of 4 years?

So what you say is not true all those orgs at some point had a lot of boring hockey because they didn't have talent

I think when the Blackhawks are ready for playoff runs they will be fun to watch because they will be the team that is superior in talent and speed.

Added, looking at their draft history Avs and TB only had 2 extra first round picks

The Caps in that 4 year span had 4 additional first round picks. If you zoom out they had 14 first round picks in that 7 year stretch.

- BetweenTheDots


If a main cog in any team goes down, said team will have trouble competing. Think if Toews, Hossa, Kane, or Keith went down. If Bedard gets similarly injured, do you think the Hawks will be as good of a team a they are theoretically supposed to be? Does that change the opinion of the rest of the work KD has done?

The cap forces teams to make decisions on their roster. They very often have to move on from guys that they want to keep around. EDM, COL, NYR, TB, FLA, VGK, etc. all have had to either stand pat or lose guys that they wanted to keep or add.

My biggest concern is that they are going to wait for too many of these kids to mature to notably improve. I want as much as anyone for all of these kids to show out. It would be great for the team. The problem I see as twofold. First, if all of these kids hit, it is going to be really difficult to get them all on the ice. Second, I think they need to get this team competing in for (or in) the playoffs sooner rather than later. The pipeline is built and they still have tons of draft capital.

The comparison with the Stars is interesting, mainly because I think they had a lot of pieces in place when they drafted a lot of these pieces. They've had Seguin, Benn, a good version of Radulov and Klingberg, and above average goaltending. This is why I keep harping on them pulling in some good younger talent from outside the club.
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Nov 30 @ 6:00 PM ET
Curious what you see about Crevier that doesn't get it done for you? Not to debate you, BB, but you're not alone and I wonder what you guys see that you think prohibits Crevier from being a useful NHLer?

And I know nobody is attacking him and or his weaknesses so I'd assume it's subtle things or just an eye test thing?

- Mr Ricochet


My critique of Crevier is that, from what I've seen, his best is NHL 6-7th. If he's even a little off, he's buried. I've watched a good number of his games in the AHL, and he is inconsistent there too.

I don't think he has the quickness to be effective, and his reads are too often poor. Being that big, I don't think he can improve on the former to be productive. If he can fix the latter, maybe he can carve out a TVR career?
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Nov 30 @ 6:04 PM ET
For sure. Moore I think is a very low floor player. Toughest part with him is do you leave him in the NCAA for a third year to see if some kind of offensive flair sparks or just say f-it he's gonna be a solid north south player and you need those too?
- fattybeef


You really think Moore has a low floor? I think he exhibits all the traits to be a first rate 3rd liner. Can fly, motor never stops, nose over the puck, 2 way game and 40ish 3rd line pts hands. ....... Kid looks a lot like a young Blake Coleman.

And of course, with that kinda speed he has a pretty good ceiling.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Nov 30 @ 6:07 PM ET
My critique of Crevier is that, from what I've seen, his best is NHL 6-7th. If he's even a little off, he's buried. I've watched a good number of his games in the AHL, and he is inconsistent there too.

I don't think he has the quickness to be effective, and his reads are too often poor. Being that big, I don't think he can improve on the former to be productive. If he can fix the latter, maybe he can carve out a TVR career?

- Chunk


Glad you responded, Chunk. Guess we see two different players..... Lets hope he ends up a useful asset.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Nov 30 @ 6:21 PM ET
Man, that Bennett is a piece of work. With him and Tkachuk running mates they have to be the most unpleasant line to play against in the whole league.
Angotti
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2019

Nov 30 @ 6:50 PM ET
Man, that Bennett is a piece of work. With him and Tkachuk running mates they have to be the most unpleasant line to play against in the whole league.
- Mr Ricochet

I always liked Bennett, knew he would be an asset on a winning team. Calgary was expecting more offense, the guy is a slightly bigger Bolland, 200’ game and like you mentioned, a pain in the butt to play against.
Angotti
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2019

Nov 30 @ 7:00 PM ET
If you watched the last 5 minutes of the Rangers/Canadiens game, the price for Kakko went up and the price for Kirby Dach went down.

Kirby Dach. 22 games. 1 goal. 7 assists. A minus 18. $3.3mil cap hit for 2 more years. Yikes.

Hawks selected Nazar with pick they got for Dach.

- Ztra

I watched the 3rd period, although the Rangers won, that is one fragile team. Fox brings much more offense than Jones, but as much hate as Jones gets around here, he’s twice the Dman on defense. That’s the problem with offensive dmen, they are usually overpaid, except Makar, he brings some defense as well. Not too much went right for Dach today, would not be surprised to see him on his third team sooner than later.
rickboardman
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Henderson, NV
Joined: 01.16.2016

Nov 30 @ 7:02 PM ET
Oliver Moore with a goal.
jhawk59
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.15.2013

Nov 30 @ 7:20 PM ET
Oliver Moore with a goal.
- rickboardman

Moore is close to same trajectory scoring total this year as compared to last season
Will he pile up more points as he has adjusted and maybe improved at this level - this is his sophomore campaign.
If he signs Moore may be given a couple games but likely needs AHL prep time
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