I know we are all wearing our grumpy pants after last night's loss, but cheer up.

The current wild card race is as follows (based upon winning %, not points):

Columbus Blue Jackets - 7th seed

Ottawa Senators and Montreal Canadians - tied for 8th seed

Pittsburgh Penguins - 10th seed

Boston Bruins - 11th seed
- Atomic Wedgie

Their new coach bump is over

At this point it’s more likely they miss playoffs then make it

NHL Playoffs if the season ended today:

Washington vs Ottawa
Toronto vs Columbus
Florida vs Tampa Bay
Carolina vs New Jersey

Vegas vs Vancouver
Winnipeg vs Colorado
Los Angeles vs Edmonton
Minnesota vs Dallas

The Leafs would miss the playoffs without Marner.

They wouldn’t miss a beat without Willy.

But yeah, so I’m right. At least you get it.

- Arctic_AARDVARK

If you want to be truly objective about this - when the gaps get tightened and the pressure intensifies, the game becomes harder on Marner because he's looking for lanes that are often not there. He's forced to hold the puck too long or to try and make a play that isn't there. This is his challenge. He doesn't have an above average shot so he needs, typically, to get closer to the net to make it work for him - which is also a challenge when the lanes and gaps tighten. This is not to say that Marner's skillset can't translate, but it does mean that he needs his line mates to be in motion and making lanes happen - not statically expecting a lane to magically open up. I do put some of this at the feet of Matthews in particular. He needs to work harder when the game gets harder.

Nylander's game actually translates better to those games specifically because he's a transporter. He's not intending to push the puck through the lanes - he's going to use speed and puck protection to make a lane - and he has a good enough shot that he can score from a bit further back. He is a weapon with game breaking abilities. He's not going to make guys around him "better" with unselfish passes like Marner - Willy is more selfish in his game - but at times you need exactly what he's bringing to the table.

For both of their skillsets it applies in both the regular season and the playoffs. There is no either/or here.

And to note one other thing you've been saying - Marner was removed from Matthews' line yesterday because between them they were an unmitigated bloody disaster. Moving Nylander had little to do with how Berube feels about it, but was a larger reflection on how the lines were working.

I mean on the season Nylander is +7 at 5v5 and leads the team in goals. Marner is +6 and leads the team in points. You'd have to have a real serious brain condition as a coach if he disliked either one of them.

NHL Playoffs if the season ended today:

Washington vs Ottawa
Toronto vs Columbus
Florida vs Tampa Bay
Carolina vs New Jersey

Vegas vs Vancouver
Winnipeg vs Colorado
Los Angeles vs Edmonton
Minnesota vs Dallas
- BINGO!

I hope this doesn't happen, because I don't want to hear the endless, pointless, boring debate of "has Columbus ever beaten Toronto in the playoffs?"

I hope this doesn't happen, because I don't want to hear the endless, pointless, boring debate of "has Columbus ever beaten Toronto in the playoffs?"
- Atomic Wedgie

Sincerely I wouldn't want this to happen because I can't imagine any team more motivated this season than Columbus.

Sincerely I wouldn't want this to happen because I can't imagine any team more motivated this season than Columbus.
- Monkeypunk

Does motivation mean anything come playoff time?

I can maybe see some value in belief, I would suspect CBJ would have more belief in themselves than Pitt or Philly but idk.

They are a young team and probably will get smacked around by any of the top 4 teams in the east.

Sincerely I wouldn't want this to happen because I can't imagine any team more motivated this season than Columbus.
- Monkeypunk

Imagine if Boone Jenner was the difference maker

Does motivation mean anything come playoff time?

I can maybe see some value in belief, I would suspect CBJ would have more belief in themselves than Pitt or Philly but idk.

They are a young team and probably will get smacked around by any of the top 4 teams in the east.
- Santo_44

Washington starting to slip a little bit here.

Imagine if Boone Jenner was the difference maker
- mr.sir

Boone will be their TDL add.

0% they trade him now.

It is ROR or bust, unless Briere grows a pair and finally trades their coveted 3C.

Washington starting to slip a little bit here.
- BINGO!

Yeah i see them slipping a bit.

Still they will be a pain in the ass and are built to do well in playoffs I think.

If you want to be truly objective about this - .
- Monkeypunk

the least objective person...doesnt want to do that

Sincerely I wouldn't want this to happen because I can't imagine any team more motivated this season than Columbus.
- Monkeypunk

first thing I thought when I saw that matchup...tailor made Leaf poop their pants series

first thing I thought when I saw that matchup...tailor made Leaf poop their pants series
- senstroll

Meh at this point I am so bored of the same series it would be nice and fresh.

You just know it will be Leafs and Bruins though.

Does motivation mean anything come playoff time?

I can maybe see some value in belief, I would suspect CBJ would have more belief in themselves than Pitt or Philly but idk.

They are a young team and probably will get smacked around by any of the top 4 teams in the east.
- Santo_44

I think motivation means a lot. I have watched - as have we all - an unmotivated Leaf team that refuses to dig deeper and work harder when it matters for nearly a decade. I firmly believe they all care. I firmly believe they all want to win. I also firmly believe they have no idea what that actually means or entails.

Everyone here can hate the Montreal Canadiens, but in 2021 it wasn't just that they got lucky and got by us (and yes, they did get lucky - when OT shots are 13-2, including at least 4 ten-bell chances, they got very lucky) - it was that they improved game-to-game in the playoffs. Sweeping Winnipeg and beating Vegas were examples of a team being motivated to do what it took and learning to pay the price.

The Leafs have yet to do that. Berube is the coach we are hoping will get these guys there. But they still have to find it in themselves - and they don't have anything that has drawn it out of them yet.

As for you point about Columbus being young? Sure - in fact that could very well be their undoing. There's no way the young guys on that team were as emotionally connected to Johnny Hockey as someone like Monahan was and they may not be physically ready to take that next step in the playoffs - but getting through the first round - before it actually gets really hard? Yeah, I'd bet they could do that.

Total revisionist history.

I’m right about almost everything, and I’m right about Berube not liking Nylander.

I’m mostly right about how good Marner is.

During last summer I was saying Mitch deserves $12.5M minimum. You guys all had a nuclear meltdown. Now he’s getting at least $13.5M. You weirdos were saying “gIvE hIm nO mOrE tHaN WiLl-EeEEeee”

So dumb.

Mitch is a front runner for the Hart. Could win the Art, Selke, MTV music video awards, a Nobel prize.

I’m right. You’re all wrong. Deal with it.

Berube hate Nylander. He just does.
- Arctic_AARDVARK

[url]

Give him whatever he wants, on another team. Or be satisfied with constant playoff failure.

I think motivation means a lot. I have watched - as have we all - an unmotivated Leaf team that refuses to dig deeper and work harder when it matters for nearly a decade. I firmly believe they all care. I firmly believe they all want to win. I also firmly believe they have no idea what that actually means or entails.

Everyone here can hate the Montreal Canadiens, but in 2021 it wasn't just that they got lucky and got by us (and yes, they did get lucky - when OT shots are 13-2, including at least 4 ten-bell chances, they got very lucky) - it was that they improved game-to-game in the playoffs. Sweeping Winnipeg and beating Vegas were examples of a team being motivated to do what it took and learning to pay the price.

The Leafs have yet to do that. Berube is the coach we are hoping will get these guys there. But they still have to find it in themselves - and they don't have anything that has drawn it out of them yet.

As for you point about Columbus being young? Sure - in fact that could very well be their undoing. There's no way the young guys on that team were as emotionally connected to Johnny Hockey as someone like Monahan was and they may not be physically ready to take that next step in the playoffs - but getting through the first round - before it actually gets really hard? Yeah, I'd bet they could do that.
- Monkeypunk

Idk I would compare them to the Leafs vs Caps AM's 1st year. They gave the Caps a run early but ultimately the Leafs were too young and did not have the depth to withstand them.

And if you want to talk motivation and believe it is significant I would argue players would have large varying degrees of motivation in the bubble and in the playoffs where there were no crowds.

I look at the bubble and I have heard a lot of stories of players not giving a (frank) and just wanting to go home to their families. The next year was different, more real and settled but still no crowd would effect a lot of guys.

Meh at this point I am so bored of the same series it would be nice and fresh.

You just know it will be Leafs and Bruins though.
- Santo_44

oh I couldnt stand another series against Boston

i also see the Sens as a trap series, they just seem to get up and outwork the Leafs.
which we know has been the way to topple this team. put a little pressure on mitch and he folds and panics

oh I couldnt stand another series against Boston

i also see the Sens as a trap series, they just seem to get up and outwork the Leafs.
which we know has been the way to topple this team. put a little pressure on mitch and he folds and panics
- senstroll

Looking at the other side of the coin the Sens are just garbage and won't make it anyways

TSN traid bait list is out

A little unfortunate, there are a few bruins players I would like but they are not trading with the leafs.

Washington starting to slip a little bit here.
- BINGO!

Slipping up at 6-2-2? I'd buy that for a dollar!

Looking at the other side of the coin the Sens are just garbage and won't make it anyways
- Santo_44

true, but its looking like it will take about 85 points to make it...one little hot streak can make the difference for any team

true, but its looking like it will take about 85 points to make it...one little hot streak can make the difference for any team
- senstroll

Right now WC1 is on pace for 86, WC2 is 84. That's awful.

true, but its looking like it will take about 85 points to make it...one little hot streak can make the difference for any team
- senstroll

With Ullmark injured I think they fall down quite a bit over the next 2-3 weeks.

They will have an uphill battle down the stretch.

Also too many teams can make it, the percentage any of these teams make it is quite low despite being right there.

Blue jays projections

https://blogs.fangraphs.c...ctions-toronto-blue-jays/

I like the Giminez projections. bit surprising 3.9war, 105 ops+ 26sb, highest war proj on the team.

Vlad..good, 30 hr.. but other than that, really need another Bat.. yeesh
Bo a little lower than I would hope..a nice bounce back would be helpful

need 1 bat, 1 SP and a couple more relief P.. not looking that great for all of that

adding this quote

If you ignore my direct threats of violence and add up the WAR on the depth chart, you get around 87-88 wins. But with the team’s depth, especially the starting pitching, ZiPS gives the Jays something more along the lines of 84 or 85 wins right now

not good enough

Slipping up at 6-2-2? I'd buy that for a dollar!
- AdamFrench

We'll see. They have played 41 games so far; 23 of them against teams presently in a playoff position and they are 15-8 against those teams. In the 18 games they have played against non-playoff positioned teams, they are 12-6.

They have 41 games remaining, 16 of which are against playoff teams, leaving 25 against non-playoff teams.

They even have a pretty even split right now with 21 games at home and 20 on the road, leaving the inverse for their remaining 41 games.

That is a well situated team.

Compare that to us - we've played 17 against playoff teams and are 10-7, 26 against non-playoff teams and are 17-9 in those games. 19 of our 43 games have been on the road.

Of the 39 remaining games, 21 are against playoff teams.

One of these teams has a harder road.