Kevin Papetti
@KPapetti
The Leafs currently rank 22nd by 5v5 xGF%.

The only teams behind them who are in a playoff spot are Columbus (8th in East) and Calgary (T-8th in West).

They are 20th in xGF/60, a stat that they've finished no worse than 6th during the Matthews era.
- gravyface

Remember how we all wanted the new coach to implement a more defensive system?

You are absolutely correct and I apologize for my moment of weakness.
- GalacticStone

It's understandable if you hang out here, when in Rome...

In two weeks, this team will be rockin’.

Remember how we all wanted the new coach to implement a more defensive system?
- Atomic Wedgie

The coach need the team, which fits his coaching style. He could be great fit with heavy and skilled teams like Vegas, but I don't think any coach can make current Leafs roster serious Cup contender.

I love the referendum in here after a couple of losses. We should probably forfeit the season, playoffs too.

I love the referendum in here after a couple of losses. We should probably forfeit the season, playoffs too.
- gravyface

82-0 is the only way.

Hopefully Marner doesn’t paint himself into a corner and walk out of spite. Feels like he could do that after the deadline. He could screw the leafs pretty hard.

I love the referendum in here after a couple of losses. We should probably forfeit the season, playoffs too.
- gravyface

The referendum is not a couple losses but the 9 years of the core four era, actually.

I love the referendum in here after a couple of losses. We should probably forfeit the season, playoffs too.
- gravyface

It has nothing to do with loses. Just overall this roster is not capable to go deep in playoffs and they prove it time after time.

82-0 is the only way.
- Woderwick

Not if you’re not winning the right way

Remember how we all wanted the new coach to implement a more defensive system?
- Atomic Wedgie

Here's the optimistic push back to "expected goals" .....Leafs are 7th best in the NHL in actual 5v5 GF/GA%.

Quite a few of the big teams (Jets, Caps, Lightning, Leafs, etc....) dramatically outperform "expected goals".

For me, when the Leafs are playing well, they give up a look of low danger stuff and that translates poorly into expected GF%. Berube's Leafs are extremely bent towards quality over quantity at both ends of the ice.

I think he's trying to get them to throw more low danger stuff at the net but these guys just don't do it that way. On the defensive end they stuff the net front and force teams to take more low danger stuff ..relying on a lot of shot blocking.

Last night was a transition poop-show. Garbage, I couldn't watch.

The referendum is not a couple losses but the 9 years of the core four era, actually.
- fifty__missions

Where did that optimism of two weeks ago go Fifty? They've been poop the last week or two but if we park that and remember where they were 2 weeks ago (4th in the league) ..and that they added a 3C and Big RHD ....and Tanev is going to be back ....there's room for optimism.

I'm erasing the last couple of weeks.

Best Leafs team we've seen in decades and I like Berube to get them playing their best again going into the playoffs.

The referendum is not a couple losses but the 9 years of the core four era, actually.
- fifty__missions

Should we let the season play out or nah?

It has nothing to do with loses. Just overall this roster is not capable to go deep in playoffs and they prove it time after time.
- alex.TML

Ah ok. So we should forfeit the season then. End the suffering now right?

Ah ok. So we should forfeit the season then. End the suffering now right?
- gravyface

No, we should not, still love the Leafs, never missed a game, but I will be pleasantly surprised if they win 2 playoffs rounds.

Here's the optimistic push back to "expected goals" .....Leafs are 7th best in the NHL in actual 5v5 GF/GA%.

Quite a few of the big teams (Jets, Caps, Lightning, Leafs, etc....) dramatically outperform "expected goals".

For me, when the Leafs are playing well, they give up a look of low danger stuff and that translates poorly into expected GF%. Berube's Leafs are extremely bent towards quality over quantity at both ends of the ice.

I think he's trying to get them to throw more low danger stuff at the net but these guys just don't do it that way. On the defensive end they stuff the net front and force teams to take more low danger stuff ..relying on a lot of shot blocking.

Last night was a transition poop-show. Garbage, I couldn't watch.
- The Law

Ideally, you want to compare well at xGF at 5v5. Expected means your system is working well offensively, or not. Having elite talents allows good teams to cheat xGF by breaking open games they would otherwise lose. Leafs and Lightning both do that to some degree.

I would wager that the teams beating their expected goals are the same teams relying on PDO to compensate.

edit : Tampa 3rd and Leafs 6th in PDO

Kevin Papetti
@KPapetti
The Leafs currently rank 22nd by 5v5 xGF%.

The only teams behind them who are in a playoff spot are Columbus (8th in East) and Calgary (T-8th in West).

They are 20th in xGF/60, a stat that
they've finished no worse than 6th during the Matthews era.
- gravyface

Oh no not expected goals 😢

Oh no not expected goals 😢
- Zezel

I expect you to score.

Expected goals make me laugh. If weirdoh were here, he'd laugh too.

Here's the optimistic push back to "expected goals" .....Leafs are 7th best in the NHL in actual 5v5 GF/GA%.

Quite a few of the big teams (Jets, Caps, Lightning, Leafs, etc....) dramatically outperform "expected goals".

For me, when the Leafs are playing well, they give up a look of low danger stuff and that translates poorly into expected GF%. Berube's Leafs are extremely bent towards quality over quantity at both ends of the ice.

I think he's trying to get them to throw more low danger stuff at the net but these guys just don't do it that way. On the defensive end they stuff the net front and force teams to take more low danger stuff ..relying on a lot of shot blocking.

Last night was a transition poop-show. Garbage, I couldn't watch.
- The Law

Good point.

WTF?

Are we really supposed to give two poops if the Leafs are actually scoring goals at a good clip?

No, we should not, still love the Leafs, never missed a game, but I will be pleasantly surprised if they win 2 playoffs rounds.
- alex.TML

I will be pleasantly surprised if we win more than 2 of the next 7 games.

Hopefully Marner doesn’t paint himself into a corner and walk out of spite. Feels like he could do that after the deadline. He could screw the leafs pretty hard.
- bryant

This is going to be an unpopular opinion, but I really think the Leafs franked themselves over for asking Marner to waive his NMC.

They just sent a message that they think of him as merely another part - there’s no emotional attachment.

And Leafs fans are now going to whine when Marner refuses to give a home team discount or pledge undying love to the team that drafted him.

Stupid move by Treliving.

This is going to be an unpopular opinion, but I really think the Leafs franked themselves over for asking Marner to waive his NMC.

They just sent a message that they think of him as merely another part - there’s no emotional attachment.

And Leafs fans are now going to whine when Marner refuses to give a home team discount or pledge undying love to the team that drafted him.

Stupid move by Treliving.
- Atomic Wedgie

Do we know for certain how it was asked? Maybe they offered him an extension that Carolina were willing to trade for him with without a NTC. And also provided him an offer with a NTC to stay.

This is going to be an unpopular opinion, but I really think the Leafs franked themselves over for asking Marner to waive his NMC.

They just sent a message that they think of him as merely another part - there’s no emotional attachment.

And Leafs fans are now going to whine when Marner refuses to give a home team discount or pledge undying love to the team that drafted him.

Stupid move by Treliving.
- Atomic Wedgie

I love Marner but it always seems like he wants his ass kissed to sign these huge contracts with his hometown team. I’d like to see him take a page out of the book of Matthews, give me the contract and I’ll sign it.