close its 17 with empty net

he is -4 at 5v5
- senstroll

reminds me of Hutson in MTL in terms of stats

Eric Engels
@EricEngels
·
18h
Breaking down Lane Hutson's -9 rating:
At 5-on-5, he's actually +6: 64 GF, 58 GA
At 3-on-3, he's surprisingly -3: 1GF, 4GA
The main reason he's a minus this season: He's been on the ice for all 13 empty net goals #gohabsgo have allowed. On the ice for one GF, so -12 there. 1/

reminds me of Hutson in MTL in terms of stats

Eric Engels
@EricEngels
·
18h
Breaking down Lane Hutson's -9 rating:
At 5-on-5, he's actually +6: 64 GF, 58 GA
At 3-on-3, he's surprisingly -3: 1GF, 4GA
The main reason he's a minus this season: He's been on the ice for all 13 empty net goals #gohabsgo have allowed. On the ice for one GF, so -12 there. 1/
- Symba007

yeah very misleading plus minus. the best offensive D are out there with the net empty. doesnt make sense to give a minus for that

My parents (Georgian Bay) lost power on Saturday and it still isn't back up. Overnight freezing rain in Ottawa doesn't bode well. They said they fixed the power lines since the crazy 3 day outage years ago, but I'm not convinced
- AdamFrench

We got no freezing rain in the east end last weekend, not expecting much overnight. Hopefully this is the last of this winter like weather until next fall.

Oh FFS, just win tonight.

Is that really asking too much?

Oh FFS, just win tonight.

Is that really asking too much?
- Atomic Wedgie

It likely is too much to ask

It likely is too much to ask
- senstroll

It's the crushing disappointment that unites us all.

R.I.P., Val.

It's the crushing disappointment that unites us all.
- Atomic Wedgie

It is written in the Great Ice in the Sky by Gods very own skates.

R.I.P., Val.


- Atomic Wedgie

Sad. RIP
love Tombstone Val

Leafs D - true 5v5 stats best to worst.

McCabe 58-40
Tanev 50-33
OEL 58-51
Benoit 37-34
Carlo 8-7
Rielly 51-55
Myers 11-18

I factor in usage and think ...OZ start% Rielly is 66% whereas Tanev is 28% ...Rielly is still in need of fixin'.

Leafs D - true 5v5 stats best to worst.

McCabe 58-40
Tanev 50-33
OEL 58-51
Benoit 37-34
Carlo 8-7
Rielly 51-55
Myers 11-18

I factor in usage and think ...OZ start% Rielly is 66% whereas Tanev is 28% ...Rielly is still in need of fixin'.
- The Law

Benoit with a positive goal dif while getting caved in pretty much everywhere.
Hockey!

Leafs D - true 5v5 stats best to worst.

McCabe 58-40
Tanev 50-33
OEL 58-51
Benoit 37-34
Carlo 8-7
Rielly 51-55
Myers 11-18

I factor in usage and think ...OZ start% Rielly is 66% whereas Tanev is 28% ...Rielly is still in need of fixin'.
- The Law

Ya but Rielly has to deal with playing 90 minutes at 6-5.

Benoit with a positive goal dif while getting caved in pretty much everywhere.
Hockey!
- senstroll

I know ...it doesn't make sense. But it's a consistent stat. When I sit back sippin' a coffee and try to rationalize it (because the sample size isn't small) I think it's gotta be a couple of things ...

His usage is typically against the other teams bottom 6 and with our bottom 6 and it's a lot of DZone starts. So his job is to basically "get the puck out" and get off the ice. So the other team wins a faceoff throws a few pucks at the net that get blocked or are low % or even if they're higher % they are executed by the other teams pooptiest players that they really aren't that dangerous. He and Kampf get the puck out and on rare occasion convert it into a scoring chance (and end up scoring at a ridiculously high rate).

Eg. since the trade deadline with Benoit on the ice the Leafs have only 16 HDC but have scored on 6. They've give up 32 HDC but only given up 2 goals. It's a short window but all of his stats are kind of like that.

For me ...bottom line is to just use him against the other teams bottom 6. If he's caught out there against the other teams top line (especially without Matthews) we're (frank)ed.

I know ...it doesn't make sense. But it's a consistent stat. When I sit back sippin' a coffee and try to rationalize it (because the sample size isn't small) I think it's gotta be a couple of things ...

His usage is typically against the other teams bottom 6 and with our bottom 6 and it's a lot of DZone starts. So his job is to basically "get the puck out" and get off the ice. So the other team wins a faceoff throws a few pucks at the net that get blocked or are low % or even if they're higher % they are executed by the other teams pooptiest players that they really aren't that dangerous. He and Kampf get the puck out and on rare occasion convert it into a scoring chance (and end up scoring at a ridiculously high rate).

Eg. since the trade deadline with Benoit on the ice the Leafs have only 16 HDC but have scored on 6. They've give up 32 HDC but only given up 2 goals. It's a short window but all of his stats are kind of like that.

For me ...bottom line is to just use him against the other teams bottom 6. If he's caught out there against the other teams top line (especially without Matthews) we're (frank)ed.
- The Law

Easier to manage at home then on the road

Ya but Rielly has to deal with playing 90 minutes at 6-5.
- AdamFrench

The elephant in the room is that the Leafs are (frank)ing horrific at 6v5 play and pretty bad at 5-6 play too.

Comparing their GF/GA in the standings to other teams they look like poop but they're actually very good 5v5 GF% ....8th in the league and sitting between Vegas and Florida.

Easier to manage at home then on the road
- Symba007

Ya, but I think most teams have the same situation - a third pairing that is less a bit of a risk against the top line.

My problem with Rielly is simple. He's paid a lot to be a great offensive defenseman. Anything else is a bonus and he has shown over the years that he can be good defensively and trash defensively. You need to do something very well at the very least to make that level of money.

He sucks offensively for what he is paid for and deployed at. He's off the 1st PP and it's been a breath of air ever since and still almost half his points were from there.

He might not hit 40 points this year. It's unacceptable in a league where defenders are stretching the boundaries of scoring. This is pretty much his worst season since 2016.

My problem with Rielly is simple. He's paid a lot to be a great offensive defenseman. Anything else is a bonus and he has shown over the years that he can be good defensively and trash defensively. You need to do something very well at the very least to make that level of money.

He sucks offensively for what he is paid for and deployed at. He's off the 1st PP and it's been a breath of air ever since and still almost half his points were from there.

He might not hit 40 points this year. It's unacceptable in a league where defenders are stretching the boundaries of scoring. This is pretty much his worst season since 2016.
- AdamFrench

Yup. GF per 60 for the Leafs with each D on the ice this year.

McCabe 3.05
Tanev 2.76
OEL 2.73
Carlo 2.48
Rielly 2.28
Benoit 2.27
Myers 1.5

And the PP has been hummin' with him on the bench.

Yup. GF per 60 for the Leafs with each D on the ice this year.

McCabe 3.05
Tanev 2.76
OEL 2.73
Carlo 2.48
Rielly 2.28
Benoit 2.27
Myers 1.5

And the PP has been hummin' with him on the bench.
- The Law

please please please hum in the playoffs

please please please hum in the playoffs
- senstroll

My problem with Rielly is simple. He's paid a lot to be a great offensive defenseman. Anything else is a bonus and he has shown over the years that he can be good defensively and trash defensively. You need to do something very well at the very least to make that level of money.

He sucks offensively for what he is paid for and deployed at. He's off the 1st PP and it's been a breath of air ever since and still almost half his points were from there.

He might not hit 40 points this year. It's unacceptable in a league where defenders are stretching the boundaries of scoring. This is pretty much his worst season since 2016.
- AdamFrench

What did you think would happen when he started dating Tessa, she is draining him of all of his energy.

What did you think would happen when he started dating Tessa, she is draining him of all of his energy.
- Symba007

*See gif above*

*See gif above*
- AdamFrench

he's a multiple millionaire and married to a hot wife, good for him, he did well in life

he's a multiple millionaire and married to a hot wife, good for him, he did well in life
- Symba007

via GIPHY

I know ...it doesn't make sense. But it's a consistent stat. When I sit back sippin' a coffee and try to rationalize it (because the sample size isn't small) I think it's gotta be a couple of things ...

His usage is typically against the other teams bottom 6 and with our bottom 6 and it's a lot of DZone starts. So his job is to basically "get the puck out" and get off the ice. So the other team wins a faceoff throws a few pucks at the net that get blocked or are low % or even if they're higher % they are executed by the other teams pooptiest players that they really aren't that dangerous. He and Kampf get the puck out and on rare occasion convert it into a scoring chance (and end up scoring at a ridiculously high rate).

Eg. since the trade deadline with Benoit on the ice the Leafs have only 16 HDC but have scored on 6. They've give up 32 HDC but only given up 2 goals. It's a short window but all of his stats are kind of like that.

For me ...bottom line is to just use him against the other teams bottom 6. If he's caught out there against the other teams top line (especially without Matthews) we're (frank)ed.
- The Law

I'd need to probably pay closer attention to his on-ice performance to determine if it's luck, as the numbers suggest, or if it's something he's doing.

Not all HD chances are created equal and not all goaltenders treat those HD chances equivalently either.

A great example of this are goaltenders like Hellebuyck. His big, poised, has an upright butterfly position and keeps his long pads extended outright but has strong leg positioning and an excellent stick to protect his five hole. By comparison, in my opinion, Stolarz is very similar, but his stick positioning isn't as good and his upper net coverage also is weaker - so he plays a lot like Helly-lite.

When you get in tight against a goalie like that and face physical defensive pressure you're generally left with the option to bang at the puck - whack, whack, whack - which can sometimes lead to 2-3 HD chances recorded even though they never had a chance of beating a larger, upright, well poised goaltender. Softer defensive coverage allows for the opposing player to pull the puck back or maneuver it to a better position down low which changes the nature of the HD chance dramatically.

Most models favour the softer, puck-moving defenseman, but they don't do a good job of recognizing how the larger more physical defenseman is contributing to real chance reduction.

Here's some examples: Looking at 205 qualified defensemen since February 1st (picked arbitrarily to consider later season play vs looser early season play) who have over 250 minutes of 5v5 play:

Pionk and Stanley on Winnipeg are #1 and #2 in HD GA% despite being 16th and 33rd, respectively, in chances against/60. Brandon Carlo is 4th and is 158th in chances against/60. Like here's a larger list looking at HD Chances Against and HD Goals Against perecentage in those chances:

Pionk (WPG); In 502 minutes is ranked 16 in CA/60, but has a GA% of 2.9
Stanley (WPG); In 428 minutes is ranked 33 in CA/60, but has a GA% of 3.17
Weegar (CGY); In 644 minutes is ranked 121 in CA/60, but has a GA% of 4.2
Carlo (BOS, TOR); In 567 minutes is ranked 158 in CA/60, but has a GA% of 4.39
Kulikov (FLA); In 478 minutes is ranked 114 in CA/60, but has a GA% of 4.6
Miller (WPG); In 316 minutes is ranked 9 in CA/60, but has a GA% of 4.65
Spence (L.A); In 510 minutes is ranked 34 in CA/60, but has a GA% of 5.26
Mukhamadullin (S.J); In 346 minutes is ranked 58 in CA/60, but has a GA% of 5.36
Broberg (STL); In 651 minutes is ranked 26 in CA/60, but has a GA% of 5.43
Savard (MTL); In 389 minutes is ranked 200 in CA/60, but has a GA% of 5.62
Hamilton (N.J); In 355 minutes is ranked 150 in CA/60, but has a GA% of 5.71
Thrun (S.J); In 310 minutes is ranked 205 in CA/60, but has a GA% of 5.75
Lilleberg (T.B); In 524 minutes is ranked 67 in CA/60, but has a GA% of 5.81
Xhekaj (MTL); In 456 minutes is ranked 197 in CA/60, but has a GA% of 5.88
Hanley (CGY); In 561 minutes is ranked 112 in CA/60, but has a GA% of 5.88
Samberg (WPG); In 581 minutes is ranked 82 in CA/60, but has a GA% of 6.06
Malinski (COL); In 448 minutes is ranked 116 in CA/60, but has a GA% of 6.1
Severson (CBJ); In 490 minutes is ranked 152 in CA/60, but has a GA% of 6.19
Mikkola (FLA); In 569 minutes is ranked 83 in CA/60, but has a GA% of 6.19
Theodore (VGK); In 408 minutes is ranked 41 in CA/60, but has a GA% of 6.45
Schenn (NSH, WPG); In 468 minutes is ranked 140 in CA/60, but has a GA% of 6.67
Helleson (ANA); In 467 minutes is ranked 204 in CA/60, but has a GA% of 7.21
Pulock (NYI); In 438 minutes is ranked 195 in CA/60, but has a GA% of 7.22
Forsling (FLA); In 651 minutes is ranked 178 in CA/60, but has a GA% of 7.25
Ekblad (FLA); In 302 minutes is ranked 112 in CA/60, but has a GA% of 7.27
Faulk (STL); In 593 minutes is ranked 11 in CA/60, but has a GA% of 7.41
Hague (VGK); In 588 minutes is ranked 53 in CA/60, but has a GA% of 7.45
Hamonic (OTT); In 306 minutes is ranked 190 in CA/60, but has a GA% of 7.46
Cernak (T.B); In 546 minutes is ranked 32 in CA/60, but has a GA% of 7.5
Doughty (L.A); In 478 minutes is ranked 141 in CA/60, but has a GA% of 7.61
Moverare (L.A); In 277 minutes is ranked 24 in CA/60, but has a GA% of 7.69
Raddysh (T.B); In 613 minutes is ranked 78 in CA/60, but has a GA% of 7.69
Hedman (T.B); In 685 minutes is ranked 125 in CA/60, but has a GA% of 7.87
Zadorov (BOS); In 618 minutes is ranked 183 in CA/60, but has a GA% of 8.27
Mayfield (NYI); In 276 minutes is ranked 188 in CA/60, but has a GA% of 8.33
Benoit (TOR); In 465 minutes is ranked 170 in CA/60, but has a GA% of 8.33
Borgen (NYR); In 644 minutes is ranked 165 in CA/60, but has a GA% of 8.4
Kovacevic (N.J); In 623 minutes is ranked 85 in CA/60, but has a GA% of 8.41
Moser (T.B); In 291 minutes is ranked 162 in CA/60, but has a GA% of 8.47
Romanov (NYI); In 605 minutes is ranked 180 in CA/60, but has a GA% of 8.53
Tanev (TOR); In 498 minutes is ranked 23 in CA/60, but has a GA% of 8.57

Now I can't speak to all of these names, but I would surmise that in most cases you would find people who have decent gap management and/or are strong down low on opposing forwards not allowing to move in/on the crease.