Are you saying a team with less than 90 points, will take the 8th seed?
- Doppleganger

Absolutely.

Absolutely.
- RogerRoeper

How low?

The Rangers currently hold the 8th seed with 43 points and have played 41 games.

How low?

The Rangers currently hold the 8th seed with 43 points and have played 41 games.
- Doppleganger

So they're on pace for 86 points.

Again, the parity this season and overall weakness in the East will make it the lowest point total required to qualify for the playoffs in a few seasons imo.

I've just gotta just go with the avg now, 86.

How low?

The Rangers currently hold the 8th seed with 43 points and have played 41 games.
- Doppleganger

Montreal currently has the 8th best points % at .523. that's a pace for 86 points. Even if it picks up a little, it could still land well below 90.

I'm still not saying the Leafs would catch that, even at 86 though.

Hall and Kadri sure do have some chemistry.....

How low?

The Rangers currently hold the 8th seed with 43 points and have played 41 games.
- Doppleganger

Points at mid season don't mean much. I prefer that you look at the point total in relation to games played. It suggests the last playoff spot is now a fight between Atlanta and Tampa who are both at +1. The Leafs I believe are -5 so they need 6 more wins than losses than either Atlanta or Tampa to catch them. That is really a lot.

Points at mid season don't mean much. I prefer that you look at the point total in relation to games played. It suggests the last playoff spot is now a fight between Atlanta and Tampa who are both at +1. The Leafs I believe are -7 so they need 8 more wins than losses than either Atlanta or Tampa to catch them. That is a lot.
- spatso

Your math is bad.

Your math is bad.
- prock

your right I mistyped the numbers and have made the correction

your right I mistyped the numbers and have made the correction
- spatso

It's still bad. If they need 6 more points, that's anywhere from 3 more wins to 6 more wins, depending on whether the other team has OTLs or SOLs. It's not definitely 6 more wins.

6 guarantees they pass said teams. 3 may be enough.

plus ALL the teams ahead of them have to lose said number of games............which is almost impossible because they play each other.........they can't all lose.

It's still bad. If they need 6 more points, that's anywhere from 3 more wins to 6 more wins, depending on whether the other team has OTLs or SOLs. It's not definitely 6 more wins.

6 guarantees they pass said teams. 3 may be enough.
- prock

The problem is that hockey uses a crazy system and because teams play games at different rates things may not be as they appear especially when you take into account that a team can gain a point in an overtime or shoot out loss.

If, for example, we agree that a target of 88 points will get you the last playoff spot in the east it is fairly easy to calculate the performance level required for each team to get there. The Rangers have played 41 games and are +2 with 43 points. They need to gain another 45 points from the 82 point potential of their remaining 41 games. So, the Rangers need to gain available points at a .544 rate to hit the magic 88 points. Atlanta and Tampa need to earn points at .561, Montreal at .565, Flyers .573, Florida .587 and the Islanders at .603. The Leafs must gain a staggering .637 or 51 of the 80 potential points available.

Over the past few years I have watched the Leafs close with a great season finish but they were never able to fully close the gap enough to make the playoffs. Do you really think all the other teams can stumble enough for the Leafs to make it into the playoffs even if they could gain the points at the rate of .637. And, of course people will argue that this year is different that less points will get you into the playoffs. But that makes it even harder for the Leafs. If you could lower the threshold to 82 points the Rangers need only gain 39 of a possible 82 points (.427). The Leafs are toast.

plus ALL the teams ahead of them have to lose said number of games............which is almost impossible because they play each other.........they can't all lose.
- Doppleganger

You are exactly right and this is one of the hardest hockey point quirks to grasp. In order to finish 7th or 8th the Leafs must finish ahead of the Rangers, Tampa, Atlanta, Montreal, Philadelphia, Florida or the Islanders. But because all those teams play each other with up to three points awarded in a game it is very difficult for any team to dramatically alter its position in relation to the total group. Two even three of the teams can go into the tank while the Leafs get very hot. But, the other teams ahead of the Leafs will simply benefit from the teams that are failing.

Hope is an important part of the fan experience. False hope, on the other hand, is a calculation spun by MLSE in the pretense that somebody connected with this team may actually know what they are doing.

You are exactly right and this is one of the hardest hockey point quirks to grasp. In order to finish 7th or 8th the Leafs must finish ahead of the Rangers, Tampa, Atlanta, Montreal, Philadelphia, Florida or the Islanders. But because all those teams play each other with up to three points awarded in a game it is very difficult for any team to dramatically alter its position in relation to the total group. Two even three of the teams can go into the tank while the Leafs get very hot. But, the other teams ahead of the Leafs will simply benefit from the teams that are failing.

Hope is an important part of the fan experience. False hope, on the other hand, is a calculation spun by MLSE in the pretense that somebody connected with this team may actually know what they are doing.
- spatso

So the Leafs being within playoff reach is a spin by MLSE?

Sure, the Leafs have to leap-frog teams to make the playoffs, but so do all those other teams.

You are exactly right and this is one of the hardest hockey point quirks to grasp. In order to finish 7th or 8th the Leafs must finish ahead of the Rangers, Tampa, Atlanta, Montreal, Philadelphia, Florida or the Islanders. But because all those teams play each other with up to three points awarded in a game it is very difficult for any team to dramatically alter its position in relation to the total group. Two even three of the teams can go into the tank while the Leafs get very hot. But, the other teams ahead of the Leafs will simply benefit from the teams that are failing.

Hope is an important part of the fan experience. False hope, on the other hand, is a calculation spun by MLSE in the pretense that somebody connected with this team may actually know what they are doing.
- spatso

And those who broadcast the games play the "points out of a playoff spot" card as much as anyone else as they need viewers to keep the rating up. Plus the fact that over half the teams make the playoffs keeps the fans coming out to games until the last games of the season..............it's all designed this way as the NHL is SO FREAKING dependent on ticket sales, as it is by far the largest revenue stream for the league.

So the Leafs being within playoff reach is a spin by MLSE?

Sure, the Leafs have to leap-frog teams to make the playoffs, but so do all those other teams.
- RogerRoeper

It is one thing to leap frog another team. It is far more difficult to leap frog a team that is itself already in the process of leapfrogging the team ahead of them. The Rangers, Flyers and Islanders are all looking to fight for a playoff spot. If two of them were to stumble the third team in the group will gain from their failing.

And those who broadcast the games play the "points out of a playoff spot" card as much as anyone else as they need viewers to keep the rating up. Plus the fact that over half the teams make the playoffs keeps the fans coming out to games until the last games of the season..............it's all designed this way as the NHL is SO FREAKING dependent on ticket sales, as it is by far the largest revenue stream for the league.
- Doppleganger

I actually think that many of the old timers who are in the broadcast booth do not understand how the point system now works. On the one hand it is easy to win points with the point given for a tie. So, the team on the outside can do really well but not able to overtake the team ahead of them because it is so much easier for everyone to get points in the stretch run.

So the Leafs being within playoff reach is a spin by MLSE?

Sure, the Leafs have to leap-frog teams to make the playoffs, but so do all those other teams.
- RogerRoeper

Yes, MLSE, media outlets, etc...etc...

I'll be the first to admit that I have been impressed by the level of play (intensity, grinding, hard working) that I have seen from the Leafs over the last month or two.However despite their good play, they are still 5 points out.

5 points does not sound like much, which is why pre game that's what announcers say and it's what journalists/broadcasters have chosen to focus on.

The more important thing to look at is the standings. The Leafs are 5 points out BUT they are in 14 (FOURTEENTH) place in the conference. To take over 8th place they have to leap frog 6 TEAMS!

I'm sorry but I don't see them overtaking the Flyers or the rangers. It would be impressive if the Leafs even finish 10th in the conference.

The only thing you can pretty much be assured of is that the LEafs won't end up giving the Bruins the 1st overall pick.

Yes, MLSE, media outlets, etc...etc...

I'll be the first to admit that I have been impressed by the level of play (intensity, grinding, hard working) that I have seen from the Leafs over the last month or two.However despite their good play, they are still 5 points out.

5 points does not sound like much, which is why pre game that's what announcers say and it's what journalists/broadcasters have chosen to focus on.

The more important thing to look at is the standings. The Leafs are 5 points out BUT they are in 14 (FOURTEENTH) place in the conference. To take over 8th place they have to leap frog 6 TEAMS!

I'm sorry but I don't see them overtaking the Flyers or the rangers. It would be impressive if the Leafs even finish 10th in the conference.

The only thing you can pretty much be assured of is that the LEafs won't end up giving the Bruins the 1st overall pick.
- Sens2k5

Actually the leafs (37 points) are 7 points out of being alone in 8th place, and ahead of the Rangers(43 points) who are playing right now as I post, and both teams will have played 42 games when the night is over...........and the leafs then could be 9 points out of being alone in 8th place if the Rangers win.

So the Leafs being within playoff reach is a spin by MLSE?

Sure, the Leafs have to leap-frog teams to make the playoffs, but so do all those other teams.
- RogerRoeper

Yes it is a spin. Mathematically they are still in, but really their chances are probably around 1-3%. If that isn't spin, I don't know what is.

Basically the Leafs need the western teams to steal every point from the East and have all of the eastern games end in regulation. Oh, and they need to win at very high rate, like Buffalo/Pittsburgh high.

Spin away Roger.

Yes it is a spin. Mathematically they are still in, but really their chances are probably around 1-3%.
- bureforearthsprez

01.7%

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

01.7%

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html
- Doppleganger

Amazing chart, bookmarked, trend lines are really quite remarkable. It appears that a team that plays consistent winning hockey increases the probability of making the playoffs merely through the passage of time. For example, the Devils now show as a 100% probability of making the playoffs. If you follow the trend line it is amazing how dramatically their outcome improved from week to week just by playing consistent winning hockey. If you remember when the season started the Devils were listed as being among the group that would have to fight for a playoff spot.

Great chart, thanks again.

Yes, MLSE, media outlets, etc...etc...

I'll be the first to admit that I have been impressed by the level of play (intensity, grinding, hard working) that I have seen from the Leafs over the last month or two.However despite their good play, they are still 5 points out.

5 points does not sound like much, which is why pre game that's what announcers say and it's what journalists/broadcasters have chosen to focus on.

The more important thing to look at is the standings. The Leafs are 5 points out BUT they are in 14 (FOURTEENTH) place in the conference. To take over 8th place they have to leap frog 6 TEAMS!

I'm sorry but I don't see them overtaking the Flyers or the rangers. It would be impressive if the Leafs even finish 10th in the conference.

The only thing you can pretty much be assured of is that the LEafs won't end up giving the Bruins the 1st overall pick.
- Sens2k5

It would appear that Carolina will get the honors of 1st pick overall. The Bruins should have the third pick thanks to the generosity of Brian Blowhard.

Yes it is a spin. Mathematically they are still in, but really their chances are probably around 1-3%. If that isn't spin, I don't know what is.

Basically the Leafs need the western teams to steal every point from the East and have all of the eastern games end in regulation. Oh, and they need to win at very high rate, like Buffalo/Pittsburgh high.

Spin away Roger.
- bureforearthsprez

I feel sorry for Roger. It is very hard to accept that the team you support it essentially guilty of running a long term fraud. I know exactly the place where Roger is at. I have been there. It is incredibly painful to face the reality that the team you support is going backwards both long term and short term. If you look at the disaster this year has been for the Leafs it is difficult. However, it is even more difficult to accept it may be worse next year and the Leafs do not have their #1 pick in either year.

It would appear that Carolina will get the honors of 1st pick overall. The Bruins should have the third pick thanks to the generosity of Brian Blowhard.
- spatso

Don't forget about the Lottery.

Don't forget about the Lottery.
- Doppleganger

Just curious, has a team other than the worst team overall ever won the lottery (excluding Pittsburgh's Crosby triumph)?