article on the expected "temporary" summer cap:

http://www.theglobeandmai...erfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Bill. While I respect your numbers here, I think the really telling number would be the percentage of defensemen to be selected in each round to reach a particular status. That should determine if the FLyers move up or not...

For example... (hypothetical stats)
10% of first round defenseman become hall of famers
20% become all-stars
40 % become First pairing guys
20% become role playing d-men
10% do not reach NHL

Where as second round defenseman
2% become hall of famers
10% become all-stars
20% become first pairing guys
43% become role players
25% dont make the NHL

I guess my point is, yes you can get the "good" players sometimes in the later rounds, but your chances of landing that future star player is higher in the first round. Expecially now that scouting is so much easier, with most all games being filmed, etc. Just look at the defenseman selected in 2008... You can hardly argue that there were many let downs from where they were drafted... many 2 or 3 that have yet to become NHLers, but it has already produced some amazing talent like Doughty, Peitrieangelo, Schenn, Myers, Gardiner, Sbisa, & Carlson. This years draft is said to have similiar depth in defense... If you could get 2 of those players... wouldnt it be nice?

Hey Bill What do you think about Enstrom in Winnipeg, maybe the pp quarterback they need. 1 yr left on his deal at 3.25 and they say Winnipeg would be looking at a top 6 forward in return which we certainly have an abundance of. Would it take JVR to get Enstrom and is it worth it?
- Daceroni

I'd most certainly be interested in Enström, although it does concern me a bit that he has a tendency to get banged up because he gives up so much size (he's missed 30 games due to injury the past two seasons).

So the police have a seat belt check point, and the cop tells me my 5 year old isn't secured properly...I tell him she is, and he says, no, she needs to be in a harness.

So I whip out my printout of the law showing I'm right. The law is that children under 8 years or 80 lbs must be in a child seat or booster seat, until the vehicle seat belt fits properly.

Shouldn't a guy doing a seat belt enforcement check KNOW THE (frank)ING LAWS?!?!?

I had the issue at the time. I was following the draft while at a wedding, and when they didn't grab Parise I shouted out, Who the (frank) is Jeff Carter?!?!?
- Jsaquella

That was kinda like me when they drafted Downie.. I wanted James Neal sooo bad.

Let's continue to draft players with mononucleosis, and and steal Grigorenko.. Wouldn't mind seeing them draft Griffin Reinhart or Henrik Samuelsson either.
- pharcyde

I say we take the top 2 guys and give them mono each year after a "meeting" watch thier spots drop, and snatch them up....

Great blog.

Don't know the source but saw a recent commentary saying a team should never use a first round pick to take a Dman unless it was for a #1 guy like a Doughty or Karlsson who had clear offensive upside. Great, stay at home Dmen are slow to develop and guys like Chara, Weber and Lidstrom often only begin to show their offensive edge once they get their defensive game in place.

The same comment suggested that you never waste an early round pick on a goalie. There will always be an exception (Cary Price). But, most top prospect goalies never actually make it to the elite level. On the other hand, if you look at the top goalies, how many we're taken in the late rounds.

A team should use their early picks to draft kids who can see and anticipate the game, who can skate, have size and good hand/eye coordination.
- Daman

I read the same blog, and it didn't say anywhere to never draft a D man in the first round under any circumstances.

I'd most certainly be interested in Enström, although it does concern me a bit that he has a tendency to get banged up because he gives up so much size (he's missed 30 games due to injury the past two seasons).
- bmeltzer

Do you think he is a guy you would move JvR for though?

at least the FLyers took Carter. the Rangers too Jessiman at 12, the Islanders too Nilsson at 15 and the Sharks took Bernier at 16.

crazy deep draft
- nastyflyergirl

Carter was far from an awful pick, but when Parise was there, I was jumping up and down.

Do you think he is a guy you would move JvR for though?
- jak521

I wouldn't.

End of today.
- bmeltzer

Bill,

Good job(s) as usual.

Do you feel any team drafts and develops defenseman better than most others (i.e. Devils)? The Flyers haven't drafted, developed, and maintained too many good ones over the years. However, I think we all agree that this isn't the end of the world.

If you had to rank the top 3 d-men over the last 5 - 10 years, who would they be? I'll go Chara, Pronger, Lindstrom.

So the police have a seat belt check point, and the cop tells me my 5 year old isn't secured properly...I tell him she is, and he says, no, she needs to be in a harness.

So I whip out my printout of the law showing I'm right. The law is that children under 8 years or 80 lbs must be in a child seat or booster seat, until the vehicle seat belt fits properly.

Shouldn't a guy doing a seat belt enforcement check KNOW THE (frank)ING LAWS?!?!?
- Jsaquella

My question is why do you have a printout of the seat belt laws on you?

I had the issue at the time. I was following the draft while at a wedding, and when they didn't grab Parise I shouted out, Who the (frank) is Jeff Carter?!?!?
- Jsaquella

Parise Career points 502 194 216 410
Carter Career points 516 202 175 377

Pretty comparable I would say and not like Carter was a dud at 11. If we are really getting technical we missed out on Corey Perry as well who went 29 and we took Richards just before him. So yes deep draft that year

Bill. While I respect your numbers here, I think the really telling number would be the percentage of defensemen to be selected in each round to reach a particular status. That should determine if the FLyers move up or not...

For example... (hypothetical stats)
10% of first round defenseman become hall of famers
20% become all-stars
40 % become First pairing guys
20% become role playing d-men
10% do not reach NHL

Where as second round defenseman
2% become hall of famers
10% become all-stars
20% become first pairing guys
43% become role players
25% dont make the NHL

I guess my point is, yes you can get the "good" players sometimes in the later rounds, but your chances of landing that future star player is higher in the first round. Expecially now that scouting is so much easier, with most all games being filmed, etc. Just look at the defenseman selected in 2008... You can hardly argue that there were many let downs from where they were drafted... many 2 or 3 that have yet to become NHLers, but it has already produced some amazing talent like Doughty, Peitrieangelo, Schenn, Myers, Gardiner, Sbisa, & Carlson. This years draft is said to have similiar depth in defense... If you could get 2 of those players... wouldnt it be nice?
- RooNosHockey

This year's draft class is deep in guys that project to be really good second pair guys or decent 2nd defensemen. It's not heavy on guys that project to be Lidstroms or Webers.

I know if I'm Holmgren and I've got a decent defenseman available at 20 and Simon Nolet is screaming at me to take some kid from the Q who is a center, I take the center.

I read the same blog, and it didn't say anywhere to never draft a D man in the first round under any circumstances.
- MJL

When I have responded to you in the past, I have been deemed too harsh. As a result of my improper actions, I have suffered through a long and grueling ban.

I think it is best that you don't address me directly, as the ice I am standing on is very thin. I can see the cracks now as I type.

My question is why do you have a printout of the seat belt laws on you?
- aightwebang17

I had the issue at the time. I was following the draft while at a wedding, and when they didn't grab Parise I shouted out, Who the (frank) is Jeff Carter?!?!?
- Jsaquella

haha Yeah I still don't even know who he is. Did he even crack the starting lineup for you guys ever?

Bill. While I respect your numbers here, I think the really telling number would be the percentage of defensemen to be selected in each round to reach a particular status. That should determine if the FLyers move up or not...

For example... (hypothetical stats)
10% of first round defenseman become hall of famers
20% become all-stars
40 % become First pairing guys
20% become role playing d-men
10% do not reach NHL

Where as second round defenseman
2% become hall of famers
10% become all-stars
20% become first pairing guys
43% become role players
25% dont make the NHL

I guess my point is, yes you can get the "good" players sometimes in the later rounds, but your chances of landing that future star player is higher in the first round. Expecially now that scouting is so much easier, with most all games being filmed, etc. Just look at the defenseman selected in 2008... You can hardly argue that there were many let downs from where they were drafted... many 2 or 3 that have yet to become NHLers, but it has already produced some amazing talent like Doughty, Peitrieangelo, Schenn, Myers, Gardiner, Sbisa, & Carlson. This years draft is said to have similiar depth in defense... If you could get 2 of those players... wouldnt it be nice?
- RooNosHockey

Again, it comes down to "best available player" based on the upside the team projects the player to have.

Personally, I'm a little leery of taking "future shutdown defensemen" in the first round because the ones who end up like Jeff Woywitka and Ryan Parent far outnumber the ones who eventually turn out to be genuine NHL shutdown defensemen, ala Karl Alzner.

But if the Flyers think there's a defenseman who has the upside to play on their top pairing someday, then by all means go for it.

My point of this blog is that teams should not draft out of perceived positional need. It would take one hell of a goalie prospect for me to ever say that's the way to go with a first round pick and that's also the case for about 85 to 90 percent of the defense prospects that come along in a given year -- it is easier to find a player later in the draft who proves to be a comparable or superior NHL player down the road.

dont worry he will be a flyer soon enough
- griouxmvp2012

In the immortal words of Dean Wormer 0.0%

90% chance Parise stays in NJ
10% chance he joins Suter in Detroit

My question is why do you have a printout of the seat belt laws on you?
- aightwebang17

Because a lot of police officers don't know the law. This wasn't the first time a ticket happy clown tried to write me up for something that isn't illegal. Also, I have 4 uncles, a step dad, 2 cousins, and 5 other extended family members who are in law enforcement.

As the boy scouts say, be prepared.

Parise Career points 502 194 216 410
Carter Career points 516 202 175 377

Pretty comparable I would say and not like Carter was a dud at 11. If we are really getting technical we missed out on Corey Perry as well who went 29 and we took Richards just before him. So yes deep draft that year
- Daceroni

The real question is who did Parise have playing with him... That team never had half the offensive talent the Flyers had..

On top of it, Parise is a much better all around impact player.

Bill,

Good job(s) as usual.

Do you feel any team drafts and develops defenseman better than most others (i.e. Devils)? The Flyers haven't drafted, developed, and maintained too many good ones over the years. However, I think we all agree that this isn't the end of the world.

If you had to rank the top 3 d-men over the last 5 - 10 years, who would they be? I'll go Chara, Pronger, Lindstrom.
- Daman

Lidstrom.

And Chara was a bust that was traded (albeit by Milbury). But I remember him as an Islander. Big, lumbering mess.

haha Yeah I still don't even know who he is. Did he even crack the starting lineup for you guys ever?
- kgrpitt

Yeah, he had a couple of OK years

It was just being excited for Parise, and disappointed they didn't take him than being pissed at Carter.

Considering that Kimmo's up at the end of next season, does anyone know who the top UFAs are in 2013?

I wouldn't.
- Jsaquella

nor would I.

If I am moving JvR, its for a more well rounded guy.