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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Carle's Worth, Prospect Camp
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eayost
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Into the Void, PA
Joined: 04.14.2010

Jun 29 @ 8:37 PM ET
that was what the flyers were paying starting goalies not that long ago
- flyerscup2011


What was it Biron reportedly turned down from the Flyers a couple years back.... 3-3.5M per season for 3 years or something?

I was definitely ready to move on from him as the starter, but I was hoping he'd land here as the backup. I'd have been cool with that. Down to Clemmensen and maybe Hedberg as guys that would maybe be ideal now.
ob18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: That matters less than you hope it does
Joined: 07.20.2007

Jun 29 @ 8:49 PM ET
What Biron got was more than they probably will spendon a back up goalie.
Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

Jun 29 @ 9:18 PM ET
What Biron got was more than they probably will spendon a back up goalie.
- ob18


Thats too much....I wouldn't mind Hedberg coming in. On the Carle situation....I would go no more than 5 per with an NMC for him. I'd even go 5 years on it. Hes a quality player, someone I hope they can retain. The biggest fear is if Suter is swalled up early in FA by a non-Red Wing team. Look out for Detroit they could easily pitch a 6 mil offer to Carle, they would be in a major bind.
flyerscup2011
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Future lottery winner
Joined: 06.21.2010

Jun 29 @ 9:22 PM ET
Thats too much....I wouldn't mind Hedberg coming in. On the Carle situation....I would go no more than 5 per with an NMC for him. I'd even go 5 years on it. Hes a quality player, someone I hope they can retain. The biggest fear is if Suter is swalled up early in FA by a non-Red Wing team. Look out for Detroit they could easily pitch a 6 mil offer to Carle, they would be in a major bind.
- Just5


i honestly think matt carle will get an aav of $6mm. #TooRichForMyBlood
hereticpride
New Jersey Devils
Location: HEY. Does this pole still work?, NJ
Joined: 01.14.2011

Jun 29 @ 9:31 PM ET
i honestly think matt carle will get an aav of $6mm. #TooRichForMyBlood
- flyerscup2011

I agree. The D pickings are slim and the demands around the league are high. He will bring in a lot more than he's actually worth, be it with the Flyers, Wings, Oilers or whoever.
flyerscup2011
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Future lottery winner
Joined: 06.21.2010

Jun 29 @ 9:32 PM ET
I agree. The D pickings are slim and the demands around the league are high. He will bring in a lot more than he's actually worth, be it with the Flyers, Wings, Oilers or whoever.
- hereticpride


ville leino 2.0
bodiva88
Referee
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: There aren't any answers. Only choices.
Joined: 07.01.2007

Jun 29 @ 9:40 PM ET
Bill, what does this new job for Lappy mean for Don Luce (that was Luce's title 'til today)? I noticed Chris Pryor was on stage for the draft. Where's Don?
ob18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: That matters less than you hope it does
Joined: 07.20.2007

Jun 29 @ 9:45 PM ET
Bill, what does this new job for Lappy mean for Don Luce (that was Luce's title 'til today)? I noticed Chris Pryor was on stage for the draft. Where's Don?
- bodiva88


witness protection
jstross
Joined: 06.25.2012

Jun 29 @ 10:09 PM ET
I keep coming back to Bourdon being wasted as a 7th DMan if you sign Carle for your 3rd Dline since he can't go back down. Would you trade him for picks?
Daman
Joined: 07.03.2011

Jun 29 @ 10:19 PM ET
At this point I believe the Flyers if they had a choice would sign Parise before Carle. That being said, I think it is more likely Carle is resigned out of the two.
- ravishingone


Every team prefers all stars to players slightly above average
hereticpride
New Jersey Devils
Location: HEY. Does this pole still work?, NJ
Joined: 01.14.2011

Jun 29 @ 10:29 PM ET
I keep coming back to Bourdon being wasted as a 7th DMan if you sign Carle for your 3rd Dline since he can't go back down. Would you trade him for picks?
- jstross

7th man is an important spot. I mean how many injuries did the D have just last year?

That said, I think he could very well be our 6th man this year. Id hate to see us overpay Carle(or anyone for the matter) when there will likely be a much better crop of UFA Dmen next year.
ravishingone
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: United States, PA
Joined: 06.30.2007

Jun 29 @ 10:31 PM ET
Every team prefers all stars to players slightly above average
- Daman


Agree to a point, but would you be willing to give Parise $7 million for 10 years? Yes, he is the better player, maybe not as important of position of need. Or, if you could get Carle at $5.75 mllion for 5 years in possibly equal or higher position of need, if (big "if") the medical reports for both Meszy and Kimmo aren't great.

The organization has some interesting decisions to make in probably short order because the free agent pool is so shallow, I think guys will get signed pretty quickly.
jstross
Joined: 06.25.2012

Jun 29 @ 10:37 PM ET
I;m with you on that. I'm fine with Bourdon as the 6 with Lilja as the 7th for minor injuries. If a major injury happens Gustafson could become the 6th DMan. Flyers do like to use up the cap space so if they stand pat on D I'd love thm to sign Doan, Voracek a backup goalie and upgrade rinaldo or Shelly on the 4th line.
7th man is an important spot. I mean how many injuries did the D have just last year?

That said, I think he could very well be our 6th man this year. Id hate to see us overpay Carle(or anyone for the matter) when there will likely be a much better crop of UFA Dmen next year.

- hereticpride
ravishingone
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: United States, PA
Joined: 06.30.2007

Jun 29 @ 10:38 PM ET
I keep coming back to Bourdon being wasted as a 7th DMan if you sign Carle for your 3rd Dline since he can't go back down. Would you trade him for picks?
- jstross


With MAB, since he probably won't clear waivers to be sent back to the AHL, I believe they have to play him in the third pairing or trade him. I'm not sure how much experience he can get sitting in the press box watching games as the 7th d-man. Grizzled vets like Lilja fit the 7th d-man role a lot better then a young 22 year old who in theory still have room to improve.
hereticpride
New Jersey Devils
Location: HEY. Does this pole still work?, NJ
Joined: 01.14.2011

Jun 29 @ 10:41 PM ET
I;m with you on that. I'm fine with Bourdon as the 6 with Lilja as the 7th for minor injuries. If a major injury happens Gustafson could become the 6th DMan. Flyers do like to use up the cap space so if they stand pat on D I'd love thm to sign Doan, Voracek a backup goalie and upgrade rinaldo or Shelly on the 4th line.
- jstross

Im with you on everything except Doan. With his age and the way he plays the game I would not feel good about the 4 year over 35 contact he's apparently looking for.
jstross
Joined: 06.25.2012

Jun 29 @ 11:00 PM ET
Agree. 3 years of forget it.
Im with you on everything except Doan. With his age and the way he plays the game I would not feel good about the 4 year over 35 contact he's apparently looking for.
- hereticpride

Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

Jun 29 @ 11:24 PM ET
I;m with you on that. I'm fine with Bourdon as the 6 with Lilja as the 7th for minor injuries. If a major injury happens Gustafson could become the 6th DMan. Flyers do like to use up the cap space so if they stand pat on D I'd love thm to sign Doan, Voracek a backup goalie and upgrade rinaldo or Shelly on the 4th line.
- jstross


If your fine with mab as a 6. The flyers got worse on defense this summer.
jstross
Joined: 06.25.2012

Jun 29 @ 11:30 PM ET
I disagree. You gain Grossman and Schenn and lose Carle. How's that worse?
If your fine with mab as a 6. The flyers got worse on defense this summer.
- Just5

Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

Jun 29 @ 11:34 PM ET
I disagree. You gain Grossman and Schenn and lose Carle. How's that worse?
- jstross

If your going to count adding grossman. You'll also have to count losing pronger. I would hope th flyers bring another body in here
phantasm
Joined: 04.17.2011

Jun 29 @ 11:44 PM ET
If Carle isn't re-signed by the Flyers, it's going to have nothing to do with the Coaching staff not being comfortable with Carle playing top minutes. He has been among the team leaders in icetime for 4 Season now with the Flyers.
- MJL


I don't think it was within the coaches' or GM's plan or preference to have Carle as the top minute getting D man for the Flyers. With Pronger out of the picture, Kimmo ailing and others banged up, the durable Carle filled in as the top minute guy admirably, but also was exposed at times against top teams...I can't imagine the team remains comfortbale with Carle leading the team in minutes again, nor paying him as if he was. While I think it's a safer move to keep a certain status quo in signing Carle, with the additon of Grossmann and Schenn the team has more than four top four types they can spread Carle's minutes around to if need be, and getting more experience for Bourdon,Gusty and maybe a callup or two isn't necessarily a bad thing. If the Flyers want to homegrow some young D men at some point they're going to have to give these guys a shot to show their stuff and develop at the NHL level...they might be surprised at who steps up and makes their mark if given the chance.

jstross
Joined: 06.25.2012

Jun 30 @ 12:18 AM ET
At this point I'd focus on getting another solid two way forward that fits the scheme, sign Voracek(kid is only 22), sign a backup goalie and improve the 4th line. If they need to upgrade the D near the deadline they'll have almost $5 million to do so.

If your going to count adding grossman. You'll also have to count losing pronger. I would hope th flyers bring another body in here
- Just5

phantasm
Joined: 04.17.2011

Jun 30 @ 12:35 AM ET
Carle is a very strong puck mover, and is regarded as such around the League.
- MJL


I think he's overrated in this regard. If you think about it, Carle rarely skates the puck up the ice and (often) into the zone, like most of the "very strong puck movers" in the league do on a regular basis. Carle's M.O. is to make a d to d pass or an outlet or stretch pass, from the defensive zone...then he'll join the play if the rush gets in. It's not an overly effective strategy* and carries risk of defensive zone turnovers. Guys like Timonen, Mez and Coburn have shown they can carry the puck up ice, which allows for higher percentage of offensive zone acquisition. The numbers bear it out.

*OFFENSIVE ZONE FINISHES %:

Timonen 50.9
Bourdon 50.1
Mez 49.2
Coburn 48.3
Carle 47.8




Your also incorrect about his lack of ability on the PP. He handles and moves the puck well on the PP, and puts up solid PP point numbers for playing on the 2nd PP unit. I would not consider him a PP QB, as your correct that he does not have a great shot.

- MJL/VanSciver


I'm not a fan of Carle on the powerplay. He seems average at best at the point. QB'ing a powerplay isn't really all about having a big shot, though it helps. It's about confidence, quick thinking and movement, swift puck movement, vision and hockey sense. Someone with more confidence and a better skillset (including yes, a better shot) than Carle could make better use of the minutes Carle gets on the PP. The stats bear that out. In 5 v 4 play, the team scored almost 1.5 more PP goals per 60 minutes of pp time while Carle was off the ice than while he was on it.



Carle is a proven 2/3 D man in the NHL that can improve any teams puck movement, supply solid point totals, as well as play solidly in his own end, and is a very good shot blocker.

- MJL


If you say it, it must be true.


All very good players who are UFA's normally are overpaid. Carle will be valued around the league due to how good of a player he is.

- MJL


There are many instances of players that are average of maybe a bit above (like Carle) getting outsized contracts in free agency, especially in a seller's market like there is now for top 4 d men. See: Wideman, Dennis. It's the perfect storm for Carle to get paid such a contract and I don't want to be the team that does it.


Hopefully he stays with the Flyers. I think there should be a limit to what the Flyers should pay him. I would not go above 5.5 a year. If he can get more somewhere else. I would move on and make another move, or look to give more offensive responsibilities to other players such as Meszaros.

- MJL


I think the Flyers can use what Carle brings if they can sign him to the right price, but I'm also kind of intrigued at the prospect of seeing what others like Mez, Coburn, Bourdon and Schenn can do with his minutes. I don't think Carle is as necessary to the Flyers offense as some might think. Either way, they still need a stud #1 (ahem, Weber, #pipedream).
Schenn2shine
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.26.2011

Jun 30 @ 1:39 AM ET
Carle is a very strong puck mover, and is regarded as such around the League. Your also incorrect about his lack of ability on the PP. He handles and moves the puck well on the PP, and puts up solid PP point numbers for playing on the 2nd PP unit. I would not consider him a PP QB, as your correct that he does not have a great shot. Carle is a proven 2/3 D man in the NHL that can improve any teams puck movement, supply solid point totals, as well as play solidly in his own end, and is a very good shot blocker. All very good players who are UFA's normally are overpaid. Carle will be valued around the league due to how good of a player he is. Hopefully he stays with the Flyers. I think there should be a limit to what the Flyers should pay him. I would not go above 5.5 a year. If he can get more somewhere else. I would move on and make another move, or look to give more offensive responsibilities to other players such as Meszaros.
- MJL


You once told me if there was an area Carle needs to improve in was on the PP after I defended him as being a good Power Play Point man...

MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 30 @ 3:53 AM ET
I think he's overrated in this regard. If you think about it, Carle rarely skates the puck up the ice and (often) into the zone, like most of the "very strong puck movers" in the league do on a regular basis. Carle's M.O. is to make a d to d pass or an outlet or stretch pass, from the defensive zone...then he'll join the play if the rush gets in. It's not an overly effective strategy* and carries risk of defensive zone turnovers. Guys like Timonen, Mez and Coburn have shown they can carry the puck up ice, which allows for higher percentage of offensive zone acquisition. The numbers bear it out.

*OFFENSIVE ZONE FINISHES %:

Timonen 50.9
Bourdon 50.1
Mez 49.2
Coburn 48.3
Carle 47.8


- phantasm


Passing the puck to outlet the puck is absolutely the preferred method. It is the quickest and most efficient way to transition the puck and create offense. And Carle excels at it. And to say that passing the puck is not an effective strategy is very shortsighted. And you've made this comment before. And it lacks insight. And lack of recognizing a simple D to D breakout which is a standard breakout that a lot of teams use, and is by design. All of the Flyers defenseman do it, as it is part of the Flyers systems play. As far as your stats, your talking about a couple of percentage points. The differences are miniscule. And it is but one metric, out of many.





I'm not a fan of Carle on the powerplay. He seems average at best at the point. QB'ing a powerplay isn't really all about having a big shot, though it helps. It's about confidence, quick thinking and movement, swift puck movement, vision and hockey sense. Someone with more confidence and a better skillset (including yes, a better shot) than Carle could make better use of the minutes Carle gets on the PP. The stats bear that out. In 5 v 4 play, the team scored almost 1.5 more PP goals per 60 minutes of pp time while Carle was off the ice than while he was on it.


- phantasm


Well that would make perfect sense since Carle played the majority of his PP time on the 2nd unit. Which didn't include Giroux, who led the NHL in PP points, and Hartnell who led the Flyers in PP goals, and was 2nd overall in the League in PP goals. Your point lacks insight.
Carle plays on the PP because of his confidence, quick thinking and movement, swift puck movement, vision and hockey sense.
And since you a big fan of Advanced Stats.

A1/60 in 5 on 4 Offensive play

Timonen 0.87
Carle 1.11

While playing with lesser PP talent. And Carle ranked 28th in the League in PP points among NHL defenseman. Compare the minutes played on the PP of Carle compared to those above him. Pretty good production.



If you say it, it must be true.


- phantasm


It's true because it simply is.



There are many instances of players that are average of maybe a bit above (like Carle) getting outsized contracts in free agency, especially in a seller's market like there is now for top 4 d men. See: Wideman, Dennis. It's the perfect storm for Carle to get paid such a contract and I don't want to be the team that does it.


- phantasm


I don't want to see the team grossly overpay for Carle either.



I think the Flyers can use what Carle brings if they can sign him to the right price, but I'm also kind of intrigued at the prospect of seeing what others like Mez, Coburn, Bourdon and Schenn can do with his minutes. I don't think Carle is as necessary to the Flyers offense as some might think. Either way, they still need a stud #1 (ahem, Weber, #pipedream).

- phantasm


I think you vastly underrate Carle as a player, and what he brings to the team. With that being said, there will be opportunity for other players. Or new players brought aboard. And the Flyers can still be a very good team if they lose Carle.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 30 @ 3:53 AM ET
You once told me if there was an area Carle needs to improve in was on the PP after I defended him as being a good Power Play Point man...


- Schenn2shine




I did. Why makes you think that has changed? There is always room for improvement.
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