Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Three under-the-radar prospects

Great Read!!

Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Three under-the-radar prospects
- bmeltzer

Its cool to have bit of excitement about a defensive prospect.. I know its early, but Im excited to see what Ghost may be able to bring in a few years. Hopefully as his body physically matures, his brain will as well, as that is the most important aspect for undersized players.

Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Three under-the-radar prospects
- bmeltzer

The problem w/ prospect rankings in general is that they rank by overall skill versus likelihood of ever making it to the show. As we know, talent is only part of the equation -- if a player isn't able to fall into a particular role/niche, he's probably not going to stick. Guys like Zuccarello, Omark, Kadri, etc are in the top percentile in skill, but none of them have been able to wrestle down a top-six job yet and they simply can't hack it as role-players, whereas a guy like Holmstrom could have a decent career as a 13th-forward/4th-line C/PK guy.

The problem w/ prospect rankings in general is that they rank by overall skill versus likelihood of ever making it to the show. As we know, talent is only part of the equation -- if a player isn't able to fall into a particular role/niche, he's probably not going to stick. Guys like Zuccarello, Omark, Kadri, etc are in the top percentile in skill, but none of them have been able to wrestle down a top-six job yet and they simply can't hack it as role-players, whereas a guy like Holmstrom could have a decent career as a 13th-forward/4th-line C/PK guy.
- Tomahawk

Mr Hawk - you are typically spot on.

IMO - it is always tough to judge these things as it is part skill, heart, athleticism, knowledge, and some luck. Beyond all that, some need the right opportunity. Even further, it may make a difference whether the player has the skills that match the team he is playing for.

To be honest, I am not even concerned about prospects in terms of contributing this year or next. Our team is SO young already, I am more interesting in seeing which veterans come in as FA or via trade.

Where is Bobby? So-So J-Bo?

Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Three under-the-radar prospects
- bmeltzer

Bill,

You said Ghost lacks size. He is listed at 5'11" - that's not exactly optimum but not short either. Timmo and Gust is shorter by an inch, and MAB is only taller by an inch... Although, his weight is 161 lbs. Maybe it's semantics, but doesn't he just lack "girth". If he'd gain 20-30 lbs, he'd blend it to any rooster. That boy need to hit the weight room and eat some cheesesteaks. Is 20-30 lbs normal at this stage - can it be achieved quickly?

The problem w/ prospect rankings in general is that they rank by overall skill versus likelihood of ever making it to the show. As we know, talent is only part of the equation -- if a player isn't able to fall into a particular role/niche, he's probably not going to stick. Guys like Zuccarello, Omark, Kadri, etc are in the top percentile in skill, but none of them have been able to wrestle down a top-six job yet and they simply can't hack it as role-players, whereas a guy like Holmstrom could have a decent career as a 13th-forward/4th-line C/PK guy.
- Tomahawk

This is a very good point, and one I think Bill was alluding to.

A lot of those talented guys never learned to get their compete factor up near the level of their skill. Whereas a guy like Doug Gilmour(and hopefully Sean Couturier) came in, accepted a 3rd/4th line grinding role at the start of their careers and worked hard and blossomed when progressed to a scoring line role.

One of my favorite things about hockey is that modest talent with superior work ethic can beat superior talent with low work ethic.

Bill,

You said Ghost lacks size. He is listed at 5'11" - that's not exactly optimum but not short either. Timmo and Gust is shorter by an inch, and MAB is only taller by an inch... Although, his weight is 161 lbs. Maybe it's semantics, but doesn't he just lack "girth". If he'd gain 20-30 lbs, he'd blend it to any rooster. That boy need to hit the weight room and eat some cheesesteaks. Is 20-30 lbs normal at this stage - can it be achieved quickly?
- leon neon

Ghost is small for a NHL defenseman. Not a lot of Timonen's out there and Gustafsson has only shown flashes. He could still end up a Freddy Meyer.

Gostisbehere's game is one of skating and puck moving. I worry that adding too much weight could temper his strengths and make him less effective

Bill,

You said Ghost lacks size. He is listed at 5'11" - that's not exactly optimum but not short either. Timmo and Gust is shorter by an inch, and MAB is only taller by an inch... Although, his weight is 161 lbs. Maybe it's semantics, but doesn't he just lack "girth". If he'd gain 20-30 lbs, he'd blend it to any rooster. That boy need to hit the weight room and eat some cheesesteaks. Is 20-30 lbs normal at this stage - can it be achieved quickly?
- leon neon

Ghost is 5-11 like Danny Briere is 5-10. I'd estimate Gostisbehere's actual height at about 5-foot-9 to 5-9 1/2. I think he can add 15 pounds over the next couple years. Thirty? No way.

Ghost is small for a NHL defenseman. Not a lot of Timonen's out there and Gustafsson has only shown flashes. He could still end up a Freddy Meyer.

Gostisbehere's game is one of skating and puck moving. I worry that adding too much weight could temper his strengths and make him less effective
- Jsaquella

I agree.. He needs to progress- physically -at a normal level. IF he winds up 6' 200lbs he would still be a smaller d-man.. I honestly think he will likely end up 5'11 185 lbs (very similar to kimmo). Either way, it is his knowledge of the game that will be the make or break factor. Kimmo is such a smart hockey player, adding that to his skill set makes him who he is.

I agree.. He needs to progress- physically -at a normal level. IF he winds up 6' 200lbs he would still be a smaller d-man.. I honestly think he will likely end up 5'11 185 lbs (very similar to kimmo). Either way, it is his knowledge of the game that will be the make or break factor. Kimmo is such a smart hockey player, adding that to his skill set makes him who he is.
- jak521

I agree with Bill on his height, though. Ghost looked to be about the same height as Chris Clapperton at the rookie camp, and he was listed at 5'9".

The key for him will absolutely come down to smarts, hockey sense and vision.

I agree.. He needs to progress- physically -at a normal level. IF he winds up 6' 200lbs he would still be a smaller d-man.. I honestly think he will likely end up 5'11 185 lbs (very similar to kimmo). Either way, it is his knowledge of the game that will be the make or break factor. Kimmo is such a smart hockey player, adding that to his skill set makes him who he is.
- jak521

I agree with Bill on his height, though. Ghost looked to be about the same height as Chris Clapperton at the rookie camp, and he was listed at 5'9".

The key for him will absolutely come down to smarts, hockey sense and vision.
- Jsaquella

It's funny how the "listed" height/weight and reality don't match up... I wonder why? Who's gaining on the inaccuracy?

The problem w/ prospect rankings in general is that they rank by overall skill versus likelihood of ever making it to the show. As we know, talent is only part of the equation -- if a player isn't able to fall into a particular role/niche, he's probably not going to stick. Guys like Zuccarello, Omark, Kadri, etc are in the top percentile in skill, but none of them have been able to wrestle down a top-six job yet and they simply can't hack it as role-players, whereas a guy like Holmstrom could have a decent career as a 13th-forward/4th-line C/PK guy.
- Tomahawk

I think that's a good way to look at a guy like Taylor Leier. Generally, if you're going to be a star in this league, you'll put up big junior numbers as a 16 or 17 year old. But just because Leier hasn't done so, does not mean he can not become an effective NHL player; just eliminates the possibility of being a star player (unless he's an extremely rare late bloomer).

It's funny how the "listed" height/weight and reality don't match up... I wonder why? Who's gaining on the inaccuracy?
- leon neon

I think a lot of it starts with the Major Junior teams or colleges. If you know teams will shy away from a kid because he's 5'9", to help him get more attention they might add an extra inch or two.

Getting kids drafted can be a great selling point for those teams. In every sport. Sometimes, it's the players themselves. I remember reading Christian Laettner asked Duke to list him at 6"11", rather than his actual 7'0" height.

I think that's a good way to look at a guy like Taylor Leier. Generally, if you're going to be a star in this league, you'll put up big junior numbers as a 16 or 17 year old. But just because Leier hasn't done so, does not mean he can not become an effective NHL player; just eliminates the possibility of being a star player (unless he's an extremely rare late bloomer).
- bradleyc4

For someone with time and intelligence (I have neither) - it would be interesting to take the 10 ten goal scorers and top ten points leaders and post their 16/17 year old stats.

For someone with time and intelligence (I have neither) - it would be interesting to take the 10 ten goal scorers and top ten points leaders and post their 16/17 year old stats.
- Daman

Stamkos had 92 points in 63 games at age 16 and 105 points in 61 games at age 17.

Giroux had 40 points in 48 games in the CJHL at age 17, but scored 103 points in 69 games in his first year in the QMJHL.

Jason Spezza at age 16 had 61 points in 52 games, then had 116 in 56 games as a 17 year old.

There's generally at least one big offensive year as a teenager for guys who become elite level NHL offensive players.

James Neal is one exception, though. His only season in the OHL where he averaged a point per game was as a 19 year old. Prior to that he was a solid scorer, but not even the top scorer on his own team

Stamkos had 92 points in 63 games at age 16 and 105 points in 61 games at age 17.

Giroux had 40 points in 48 games in the CJHL at age 17, but scored 103 points in 69 games in his first year in the QMJHL.

Jason Spezza at age 16 had 61 points in 52 games, then had 116 in 56 games as a 17 year old.

There's generally at least one big offensive year as a teenager for guys who become elite level NHL offensive players.
- Jsaquella

And it's generally in the 16-17 year old range. A lot of non-superstars put up big junior numbers as 18 year olds because they're seniors in that league by then.

There are exceptions, though. Jason Pominville and James Neal, for example.

Stamkos had 92 points in 63 games at age 16 and 105 points in 61 games at age 17.

Giroux had 40 points in 48 games in the CJHL at age 17, but scored 103 points in 69 games in his first year in the QMJHL.

Jason Spezza at age 16 had 61 points in 52 games, then had 116 in 56 games as a 17 year old.

There's generally at least one big offensive year as a teenager for guys who become elite level NHL offensive players.

James Neal is one exception, though. His only season in the OHL where he averaged a point per game was as a 19 year old. Prior to that he was a solid scorer, but not even the top scorer on his own team
- Jsaquella

Interesting (and thanks).

I like Neal. It is a shame he plays for the bad guys.

And it's generally in the 16-17 year old range. A lot of non-superstars put up big junior numbers as 18 year olds because they're seniors in that league by then.

There are exceptions, though. Jason Pominville and James Neal, for example.
- bradleyc4

I edited in Neal's numbers just a second ago.

Interesting (and thanks).

I like Neal. It is a shame he plays for the bad guys.
- Daman

He's a good player, his playoff antics notwithstanding

He's a good player, his playoff antics notwithstanding
- Jsaquella

He's a p.o.s.

He's a p.o.s.
- aightwebang17

Lot of non-Flyer fans felt that way about Clarkie.

He's a p.o.s.
- aightwebang17

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- bradleyc4

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