Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Safe Picks vs. Highest Upside

Good morning and Good Blog.


The points you make in the blog are exactly why I roll my eyes every time someone says what a great or terrible pick so and so will be at number whatever in the draft. I'm convinced that the draft is more art than science, and that a fair amount of dumb luck is involved as well.

Good Draft eve ... and an excellent blog with two very good examples.

I always marveled at the people who raved that the Flyers should have taken Jagr. It was potentially a "wasted" pick. He might not have come over for years or at all. This is the team that did draft several players (in later picks) and it never happened.

I am excited. This draft and offseason should be interesting for the Flyers

Great blog Bill. Guess we'll find out soon.

Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Safe Picks vs. Highest Upside
- bmeltzer

You've been doing a great job with the draft blogs and analysis of past drafts/trades. Been fun to read them all.

Great blog. Really important point.

Sometimes the discussion about prospect depth and prospect talent becomes tedious. Yet, it always proves out when you look at the talent pool of specific teams. Once a team develops a strong prospect pool, they are able to periodically take a risk and go after the high risk talent over the safe but certain pick.

Ottawa did not just luck into picking Eric Karlsson. They actually traded up to 15th to draft a skinny kid who could play. Everyone knew he was a tremendous offensive player but nobody knew for certain if he could ever play at the NHL level.

A couple of years later Ottawa brings Couturier and ZBad to town for a mini evaluation. They decide to take ZBad. Couturier, the safer pick, slides on draft day and is taken by the Flyers. Ottawa with an already deep pool and 4 picks in the first 35 on draft day decided to take the unproven player with the high end possibility (ZBad is nearly a full year younger than Couturier). But, as of today, no guarantee Ottawa made the right pick.

Great blog as usual Bill,best hockey writer flyers fans have. I am excited about the draft this year. The fact that it is so deep and there are so many variables is intriguing. I really think that the flyers are going do everything then can to obtain another first round pick, so maybe they can hedge their bets and take a :"safe" pick and a "risky" high upside pick....both defensemen although if they acquire a late first today Fucale is definitely a possibility

So any late nite rumors??

Great blog Sir.

Really interesting. But you should trade the pick.

Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Safe Picks vs. Highest Upside
- bmeltzer

"Fortune favors the bold, but abandons the timid"

"Better safe than sorry"

Great blog Sir.

Really interesting. But you should trade the pick.
- soad_live

pourquoi?

The Minnesota Wild are considering trading forward Cal Clutterbuck.
GM Chuck Fletcher is looking to gain additional cap space and is reportedly seeking a second-round draft pick and a prospect in exchange for the rugged forward. This talk comes at the same time the team and Clutterbuck are negotiating a one-year extension, which is currently on the table for the forward to accept.

Great blog Bill, thanks.

Here is my question for all.

If Colorado was willing to trade the 1st pick for the Flyers' #11 pick & B. Schenn would you do it?

Great blog Sir.

Really interesting. But you should trade the pick.
- soad_live

Are you guys gonna sign Vinny and Briere?

A flyers team with jagr and forsberg

Great blog Bill, thanks.

Here is my question for all.

If Colorado was willing to trade the 1st pick for the Flyers' #11 pick & B. Schenn would you do it?
- SonicDefMonkeys

Yes

Spector:

If I were the Flyers GM, I’d wait out the Canucks and hope they’ll be forced to buy out Luongo. He’s the best of the aforementioned bunch, and would be a solid addition for an affordable three-four year deal. Halak has an injury history so buyer beware there. I’m not convinced Thomas wants to return to the NHL (see below). Theodore or Emery could be good backups and mentors for Steve Mason.

NESN:

Mike Cole reports former Boston Bruins goalie Tim Thomas is still undecided about returning to the NHL next season.

Spector:

If I were the Flyers GM, I’d wait out the Canucks and hope they’ll be forced to buy out Luongo. He’s the best of the aforementioned bunch, and would be a solid addition for an affordable three-four year deal. Halak has an injury history so buyer beware there. I’m not convinced Thomas wants to return to the NHL (see below). Theodore or Emery could be good backups and mentors for Steve Mason.
- isaiah520

fck that we are trading a 5th rd pick to get Luongo's rights

Great blog Bill, thanks.

Here is my question for all.

If Colorado was willing to trade the 1st pick for the Flyers' #11 pick & B. Schenn would you do it?
- SonicDefMonkeys

Yes. Do you think that's what the Avs are doing by announcing that they plan on picking a forward #1? Lots of teams want Jones. They could trade that #1 pick, get a proven NHL player and still get a really good 1st round pick. I don't know if Schenn and #11 would be enough tho.

We gonna see any deals today you guys think or is it all gonna go down tomorrow??

We gonna see any deals today you guys think or is it all gonna go down tomorrow??
- griouxmvp2012

asf thinks Coby could be gone as soon as today. they apparently can't give mez away, though they would like to.

Spector:

If I were the Flyers GM, I’d wait out the Canucks and hope they’ll be forced to buy out Luongo. He’s the best of the aforementioned bunch, and would be a solid addition for an affordable three-four year deal. Halak has an injury history so buyer beware there. I’m not convinced Thomas wants to return to the NHL (see below). Theodore or Emery could be good backups and mentors for Steve Mason.

NESN:

Mike Cole reports former Boston Bruins goalie Tim Thomas is still undecided about returning to the NHL next season.
- isaiah520

If I were them, my plan would be to address goal without trading any assets. I'd prefer to re sign Read, and if I remember correctly, we have the space to do that now. Wait for a buyout on Luongo, if that doesn't happen, sign Emery andpass the reigns to Mason...can't be sure, but from seeing him so far, he's a solid young tender. Address the forward issues in UFA. Trade Coburn if you must but get a cheaper defenseman back in return.

asf thinks Coby could be gone as soon as today. they apparently can't give mez away, though they would like to.
- isaiah520

I think once he's cleared maybe they could move him

asf thinks Coby could be gone as soon as today. they apparently can't give mez away, though they would like to.
- isaiah520

I think coby could fetch us a solid return