Travis Yost: Expanding on Ottawa's Aversion to Shot-Blocking

Great post!

Do you have the averages of some of the more dominant teams, like Boston and Chicago?

Do you have the averages of some of the more dominant teams, like Boston and Chicago?
- Sens1165

I suppose that would've been helpful in the post.

Wow...those percentages are so low across the board...

As was noted in the blog, it's not necessarily a bad thing to not block shots/let the goalie see the puck. I would hope no one interpret that as such.

But at the same time...I do kinda wonder what Ottawa's season would've looked like if they had blocked a few more shots, because TBH, some blocks do prevent glorious scoring chances and goals. I don't know if it's even as many as 15-20 per season, where that happens.

But it does happen, and I wonder if even doing it at a league average might have given Ottawa two or maybe even three more wins -- I think, maybe, it does -- and then...well, this final week would feel a lot different.

I suppose that would've been helpful in the post.


- Travis Yost

Thanks!

Wow...those percentages are so low across the board...

As was noted in the blog, it's not necessarily a bad thing to not block shots/let the goalie see the puck. I would hope no one interpret that as such.

But at the same time...I do kinda wonder what Ottawa's season would've looked like if they had blocked a few more shots, because TBH, some blocks do prevent glorious scoring chances and goals. I don't know if it's even as many as 15-20 per season, where that happens.

But it does happen, and I wonder if even doing it at a league average might have given Ottawa two or maybe even three more wins -- I think, maybe, it does -- and then...well, this final week would feel a lot different.
- AllInForFlyers

It's a fascinating thing because you can't look at blocks in a vacuum. Some are great (more often than not, I'd say) and some aren't great. And a good team blocks shots but a team can still win just fine without blocking them to the same level as another team (uh, Detroit).

And, raw block totals don't tell us anything. Just that the team is buried in their own zone a lot.

I suppose that would've been helpful in the post.


- Travis Yost

From that last graph, it doesn't look like there's much correlation between blocked shots and team success. Are you trolling us?

My impression is that they should be killing opposition breakouts in the neutral zone whenever possible. The opposition is gaining zone too often, cycling well and getting good shot opportunities. Does it start with the sens' defense being too aggressive on the attack, thus being caught too deep? Are Phillips, Gryba, Cowen too slow to catch the breakaway man and/or be in good position?

I think there are bigger problems than not blocking shots. You are trolling us, aren't you?

Part of the teams " fast"defence plan.

I mentioned this several times last year. It bloats the goalies save pct. unfortunately there have been some changes in personnel and performance that has made the team system suffer.

For it to work you need your goalies to be solid and you defence IQ to be above average. The teams defence is simply just too green this year.

From that last graph, it doesn't look like there's much correlation between blocked shots and team success. Are you trolling us?

My impression is that they should be killing opposition breakouts in the neutral zone whenever possible. The opposition is gaining zone too often, cycling well and getting good shot opportunities. Does it start with the sens' defense being too aggressive on the attack, thus being caught too deep? Are Phillips, Gryba, Cowen too slow to catch the breakaway man and/or be in good position?

I think there are bigger problems than not blocking shots. You are trolling us, aren't you?
- Stringer74

(continuing)

Part of the teams " fast"defence plan.

I mentioned this several times last year. It bloats the goalies save pct. unfortunately there have been some changes in personnel and performance that has made the team system suffer.

For it to work you need your goalies to be solid and you defence IQ to be above average. The teams defence is simply just too green this year.
- Cup 06

Well, here's a problem, I think. This is last year's data:



Ottawa looks very normal in the % of shots they block one year ago. 4-5 percentage points higher, which is a lot.

I think there's probably diminishing marginal returns, in that if you're within a spread of blocked shot %, it's probably irrelevant -- possession, far and away, mattes most.

But I wonder if, maybe there's something to not being able to get away with blocking < 20% of shots regularly in today's game.

I think ottawa doesn't like to block shots, 'cause the pucks are freakin' hard

But I wonder if, maybe there's something to not being able to get away with blocking < 20% of shots regularly in today's game.
- Travis Yost

I have a feeling that, over 82 games, that's probably what we'd see -- yes, some variance, nothing black and white being stated.

I just have a feeling that you might have to block a certain number of shots, overall, over 82 games.

One more. Seven years of teams and their % of blocked attempts at five-on-five. If it was random ... well, it's a hell of a lot of randomness. I'm a bit skeptical.

If you don't think goaltending individually is the problem, and you're not a team that's getting territorially killed, then you have to consider that something the team is doing systematically is wrong.

Is it shot-blocking? I'm not sure. But, if I'm management or even a media guy, these are the questions I'm asking the coaching staff.

Systematically wrong, or just unable/unwilling to execute. Their transition from puck retreivale, to puck control to first pass to zone exit is abysmal.

Unforced errors and lack of effort/execution leading to forced errors is what is wrong.

How can a professsional d-man take the puck from behind his own net, pass it to his d partner/winger on the hash marks/ halfwall and put into his skates, rather than on the tape??

likewise, the second pass to the centre/winger ends up on the tape, but skips off, or is made to a guy that is covered???

They make peewee level mistakes in their own zone.

blocking a few more shots would cut down on the shots on net, but it is not the major issue as to why we get killed in our own end.

If you don't think goaltending individually is the problem, and you're not a team that's getting territorially killed, then you have to consider that something the team is doing systematically is wrong.

Is it shot-blocking? I'm not sure. But, if I'm management or even a media guy, these are the questions I'm asking the coaching staff.

Systematically wrong, or just unable/unwilling to execute. Their transition from puck retreivale, to puck control to first pass to zone exit is abysmal.

Unforced errors and lack of effort/execution leading to forced errors is what is wrong.

How can a professsional d-man take the puck from behind his own net, pass it to his d partner/winger on the hash marks/ halfwall and put into his skates, rather than on the tape??

likewise, the second pass to the centre/winger ends up on the tape, but skips off, or is made to a guy that is covered???

They make peewee level mistakes in their own zone.

blocking a few more shots would cut down on the shots on net, but it is not the major issue as to why we get killed in our own end.
- GadesnSens

Right. But it is a massive statistical outlier, and a curious one at that.

The team's defensive zone issues start with the inability to basically complete a pass to exit the zone, and the group as a whole is just so reliant on 65 skating everything out.

But, this shot-blocking stuff is an odd one.

Part of the teams " fast"defence plan.

I mentioned this several times last year. It bloats the goalies save pct. unfortunately there have been some changes in personnel and performance that has made the team system suffer.

For it to work you need your goalies to be solid and you defence IQ to be above average. The teams defence is simply just too green this year.
- Cup 06

Allowing low percentage shots ,to regain posession of the puck quicker

Allowing low percentage shots ,to regain posession of the puck quicker

- top shelf 15

That may be the theory but it didn't really work.

That may be the theory but it didn't really work.


- Travis Yost

The way guys shoot nowadays,I dont know if i want guys getting freebies at our net ,low precentage or otherwise.We need to get faster on defense ,we overdid it on the size part IMO

matt puemple {sp} has 28 goals in his first full pro season so far

matt puemple {sp} has 28 goals in his first full pro season so far
- top shelf 15

It's what he does, what he's always done.

I figure he will eventually be able to translate that to the pros too, be a 25-30 goals, 20-25 assists guy in his prime.

It's what he does, what he's always done.

I figure he will eventually be able to translate that to the pros too, be a 25-30 goals, 20-25 assists guy in his prime.
- TommyDeVito

Kid has a bit of an edge to him as well ,he will probably will need more time in the ahl .But at least we can see he is making progress

That may be the theory but it didn't really work.


- Travis Yost

SKITTLES

matt puemple {sp} has 28 goals in his first full pro season so far
- top shelf 15

always refreshing that we still have some prospects who can have an impact with the big club.
i'm VERY curious to what we are going to do over the summer. i feel we are at a crossroads---- not sure which direction this team commits too, but whatever it is it will determine the identity of this team for years to come. very, very ,interested.

Great read as per usual Yost.. I'm not as concerned about the entire teams blocked shots % at evens.. But it would be great to have atleast one or two defencmen that have a large # of blocked shots per year. This would dramatically aid on our penalty kill. & we all know the Sens take a large # of minor penalties. I would hope our system would keep most of the shots against to a lower scoring % area of the ice. Witch I doubt is the case this season. Not looking at any stats but just from my memory of watching about 60 games this season. Most of the goals against come from turnovers in the slot or failures to clear long the boards from the D-men.

I wrote this in response to a discussion at HFB, but the quick math on this issue:

The difference between Ottawa and league-average team against the same number of shot-attempts at even-strength only is a shade over 160. If you figured team's average Fenwick Sh% (all non-blocked attempts) is something like 5.5-6% (this is right around the league #), then there's about ten even-strength goals in there.

I still suspect a large portion of this team's issue is zone-exit related (like, half of the defense can't complete a pass), but ten goals isn't nothing, especially when you're considering win probabilities and one-game losses and the like.

The only thing I'd note is that maybe this strategy pays off in terms of generating offense off of some of the non-blocked shots. If that led to an uptick in goals, it would offset the disparity some (or all, or more) above.