Travis Yost: Snake Oil

Tim Murray just wanted to rip off his uncle anyway he could.

I can't possibly believe he thinks he could get a top prospect for a guy whose value has consistently gone down since his Colorado days.

Not a huge fan of Chris Stewart , but I think signing someone like ryan Callahan will give us leadership for the young guys like lazar and give 100% when he's out there . Don't be cheap Eugene and bring moulson in too

Analysis is good but you have to ask yourself what is the motive?

Murray has not lost his hockey sense. He knows good value.
I believe that Ottawa has an investment strategy. It is the prospect of selling the club or taking on an investment partner that is driving most player decisions.

From an investment perspective, a young team that has sanitized the books and is a player in the MCDavid draft is an incredibly interesting asset for any investor. Every investor wants to buy something that is down, inexpensive and has great potential for growth.

Not a huge fan of Chris Stewart , but I think signing someone like ryan Callahan will give us leadership for the young guys like lazar and give 100% when he's out there . Don't be cheap Eugene and bring moulson in too
- Gosensgo89

The problem isn't Ryan Callahan individually, it's what he's going to cost. He wants first-line money and he'll likely never satisfy it.

As a Sabres fan, I would be excited. As someone who likes to follow the sport of hockey, if a deal where the centerpieces were Lazar and Stewart was made, it would be a sign that Bryan Murray is senile, and Tim Murray should be reprimanded for preying on the elderly, especially a family member.

As a Sabres fan, I would be excited. As someone who likes to follow the sport of hockey, if a deal where the centerpieces were Lazar and Stewart was made, it would be a sign that Bryan Murray is senile, and Tim Murray should be reprimanded for preying on the elderly, especially a family member.
- buffalofan19

Cory Conacher disagrees Jk.

Callahan cost per point will not be in Uncle Melnyk' rile book. So don't be alramed folks, not gonna happen

The problem isn't Ryan Callahan individually, it's what he's going to cost. He wants first-line money and he'll likely never satisfy it.
- Travis Yost

Ya I see what you mean but I just think players like that are hard to find , even the rangers weren't happy when they traded ryan challahan

Would be too bad if you don't end up signing Hemsky. It was great to watch some Ottawa games last season and see him play to the level we've known he could for awhile.

Garrioch has about as much credibility as Eklund in regards to whats really
going on within the organization.

I don't believe any info that comes from him regarding Stewart or Bonino yet we have to recycle and repeat everything he says and continue to slander the franchise.

The toxic ottawa media/bloggers are enamoured with cutting this team down. Its a complete and utter (frank)ing joke.

Travis, you should spend less time regurgitating what the Ottawa Sun reports and more time with independent analysis: you seem to be on a mission to attack the ownership and management of the team. I know last year was disappointing to all of us but this team has not done too badly in the last decade for a team that is a small market team competing with many cap teams (yes we are a small market team because of the absence of corporate head offices in Ottawa) . It would be nice if we could read Sens blogs that are a little more balanced, objective and positive.

Travis, you should spend less time regurgitating what the Ottawa Sun reports andmore time with independent analysis: you seem to be on a mission to attack the ownership and management of the team. I know last year was disappointing to all of us but this team has not done too badly in the last decade for a team that is a small market team competing with many cap teams (yes we are a small market team because of the absence of corporate head offices in Ottawa) . It would be nice if we could read Sens blogs that are a little more balanced, objective and positive.
- sensfanatic

Basically every other post I write is a quantitative analysis of a player or a team that's not being done anywhere else, whether it's Hemsky (good) or Stewart (bad) or whatever. I don't know what you want from me.

I think what you're asking me to do is not rely on reports of other people concerning trade targets / free agent targets and just make them up, as I please, out of thin air?

If you have an issue with what the Sun wrote, take it up with the Sun.

This is the type of analysis that shows using advanced stats can be used in every day decisions.

sigh

Basically every other post I write is a quantitative analysis of a player or a team that's not being done anywhere else, whether it's Hemsky (good) or Stewart (bad) or whatever. I don't know what you want from me.

I think what you're asking me to do is not rely on reports of other people concerning trade targets / free agent targets and just make them up, as I please, out of thin air?

If you have an issue with what the Sun wrote, take it up with the Sun.
- Travis Yost

That's the point: I don't want to re-read what the Sun wrote because most Sens fans know that their track records re predicting trades is awful and their analysis often weak. You are very critical of Sens management but what would you do? Do you really suggest the Sens keep and extend Spezza given his injury history and his brutal defensive play? Do you really suggest the Sens should re-sign Hemsky given his injury history and the term and dollars he will be seeking? Most Sens fans are still pretty excited about the young players on the team and the options going forward. There is nothing wrong with your being critical but when its day after day it gets tiring.

That's the point: I don't want to re-read what the Sun wrote because most Sens fans know that their track records re predicting trades is awful and their analysis often weak. You are very critical of Sens management but what would you do? Do you really suggest the Sens keep and extend Spezza given his injury history and his brutal defensive play? Do you really suggest the Sens should re-sign Hemsky given his injury history and the term and dollars he will be seeking? Most Sens fans are still pretty excited about the young players on the team and the options going forward. There is nothing wrong with your being critical but when its day after day it gets tiring.
- sensfanatic

You probably missed the endless praise I gave the team when they were legitimately good last season? Perhaps you missed the posts praising the Hemsky trade and the MacArthur signing and their ability to turn Gryba around when I thought he would never be better than replacement level. Did you miss the posts where I said this year's team was very fixable? Did you miss the post where I said Murray was a wizard for getting Turris and on a great deal? Did you get a chance to look over when I, somewhat wrongly, guessed Milan Michalek would have a bounce back year? Or when I advocated moving Spezza since his next deal will probably be poison?

Give me your email, I'll send over since you missed them first time around.

A few comments from an outsider ...

RE Stewart - yuck. Total malcontent and not worth signing. Yep, he is young and talented, but he only plays when he wants. He hasn't done jack crap since he played in Colorado.

RE Hemsky - surprised me how effective he was once the trade was made. Seemed to have a connection with Spezza. That said, if Spezza is getting moved, no sense resigning him, Hemsky that is.

RE Callahan - price tag for his point production is going to be high. That said, he does alot of things off the scoresheet that bring value to a club. He is one guy I would love to put on Sid's wing. Not sure we can afford him, but he offers more than a average point total.

Basically every other post I write is a quantitative analysis of a player or a team that's not being done anywhere else, whether it's Hemsky (good) or Stewart (bad) or whatever. I don't know what you want from me.

I think what you're asking me to do is not rely on reports of other people concerning trade targets / free agent targets and just make them up, as I please, out of thin air?

If you have an issue with what the Sun wrote, take it up with the Sun.
- Travis Yost

I think he wanted you to come up with an idea that is not from The Sun, rather than delve deeper into some of what The Sun "reports".

Personally, I don't agree. This blog was entertaining. I am not an advanced stats guy but I do like to see the arguements and see some numbers behind the scenes, especially when it puts into perspective what exactly Callahan will be asking for. It seems ridiculous, but *someone* will by into the heart and soul hype and sign him.

... the Clarkson numbers were also very interesting, to see the huge drop off this past season.

Ya I see what you mean but I just think players like that are hard to find , even the rangers weren't happy when they traded ryan challahan
- Gosensgo89

I wouldn't say that's the way they currently think. The team may not be in finals today if it weren't for St-Louis and for the terrible event that happened to him. It really did seem to motivate the team to play better hockey and they did from that point on...all the way to the finals.

This is (sadly) what I think our lineup will look like next season:

MacArthur-Turris-Ryan
Zibanejad-Bonino-Stewart
Hoffman-Roy-Stone
Greening-Smith-Neil

Karlsson-Cowen
Methot-Wiercoch
Ceci-Phillips

Anderson-Lehner

Obviously, Michalek and Hemsky out, Spezza traded for Bonino and our 10th overall pick. Derek Roy signed cheap as a UFA.

We won't make the playoffs.

The problem isn't Ryan Callahan individually, it's what he's going to cost. He wants first-line money and he'll likely never satisfy it.
- Travis Yost

You're spot on about this. Callahan is a nice player, but salary in the NHL is directly tied to statistics, whether we like it or not. Callahan has a lot of intangible qualities (apparently), leadership, etc, etc.

But someone is going to back a dump truck full of money up to his house and leave it on his lawn, and it won't be the Senators. And thank goodness it won't be, because people are going to ask why they're paying a guy 6 million a year for 40-50 points.

Keep moving, this isn't your guy.

I'm not as down on the idea of Chris Stewart as some - in part, because I think his numbers are possibly quite misleading. By the end of his time in St. Louis he was playing 3rd line minutes in a Ken Hitchcock system... not exactly a recipe for padding your stats, and not the role that made Stewart an NHL player. It's not entirely unlike what we saw last year from MacArthur and Hemsky... offensive players need to be playing in roles that emphasize their strengths, and when presented with the right opportunity they can respond unexpectedly quickly. I would suggest that Turris is another example of a player needing the right situation and opportunity to thrive - and also a player branded with character issues for not just taking whatever table scraps the Coyotes organization threw to him.

Now I realize that Turris, MacArthur and Hemsky might have had more statistical evidence suggesting their untapped potential, but Stewart is more of a visceral player. It's not unlike the difference between how Brown was playing at the start of the playoffs, versus what happened when the Kings plugged him back into the top unit... it's like the lights came back on. Ultimately, Stewart's job is to be a 2nd line power forward on an offensive-minded team... a potentially valuable skill set on a team whose best young forward assets are largely undersized, and who are looking to fundamentally change their offensive look.

Anyways, at worst they're talking about taking a one-year flier on Stewart to see if he's a good fit, which means they're taking a limited risk - but that said, this risk absolutely can't imply losing a prospect like Lazar in the process.

I just finished reading that post in the sun. I came here immediately and thankfully you had something up. It was like I was cleansing the stupid from system. The stupid I caught from reading Garrioch's work. I even made the mistake of reading some of the comments there. I only made it through 2. Had to stop when 1 commenter called the Sens "a lottery team every other year".

WRT Stewart, it is a scary thought if this is how the organization is thinking now.

Travis Yost: Snake Oil
- Travis Yost

I think you linked to the wrong post there. The one you're quoting is here:

http://www.ottawasun.com/...senators-to-let-hemsky-go

This whole situation is starting to infuriate me. How on earth can you look at Hemsky and not see a gamer. He's fast, decent possession player, and is a great shooter. He is certainly worth $5.5, no question. This 'hard forward' bullpoop has got to stop.

This is (sadly) what I think our lineup will look like next season:

MacArthur-Turris-Ryan
Zibanejad-Bonino-Stewart
Hoffman-Roy-Stone
Greening-Smith-Neil

Karlsson-Cowen
Methot-Wiercoch
Ceci-Phillips

Anderson-Lehner

Obviously, Michalek and Hemsky out, Spezza traded for Bonino and our 10th overall pick. Derek Roy signed cheap as a UFA.

We won't make the playoffs.
- LCDavid4

Really? This is your lineup?

Bonino-Stewart?

I'm gonna hazard a guess that if one of these guys ends up in Ottawa, that it will be Stewart. But keep in mind that this involves a trade within the division. Maybe they like Chris Stewart, I don't know. But it would have to be a pretty reasonable trade for Ottawa to do it. They don't want to give Buffalo a player that is going to come back to bite them. You want to send them Shane Prince for Stewart straight up? Fine, do that. But that's about as far as I could see Ottawa chasing it. It won't cost them Lazar or Puempel or Stone or any other top-end prospect. And frankly, if you're giving them Prince for Stewart, then even if Stewart doesn't pan out, you're not mortgaging your future. And he's a NHL player, even if he doesn't do EXACTLY what you want. So fine.

The only way Bonino winds up here is if Spezza goes to Anaheim, and I still firmly believe he's either going to be in St Louis or Nashville. So I wouldn't be concerned with that. Don't hold your breath on Bonino coming to Ottawa. I'm still figuring that Murray is going to try to find a way to get Kevin Shattenkirk out of St Louis, and yes, I'm the person who initially started that rumour. But he makes the most sense. Berglund, fine. But the prospect and the 1st will be coming back. If Shattenkirk is the centrepiece, then Ottawa probably needs to add a prospect as well, but fine. I cannot envision a scenario where Ottawa doesn't get this kind of return for Spezza.

Derek Roy? First of all, Ottawa does NOT need centers. They need a winger. They've got better internal players than Derek Roy at center. Derek Roy is a soft, one-dimensional diver. The reason for not negotiating with Hemsky is because they want to get tougher, and debatably, the most heartless no-show in the entire NHL is Derek Roy. Won't happen.

There's no question that Ottawa will be a young team next year, a lot of internal prospects playing for them. I still think Spatso is dead on in stating that all of this budget posturing by Melnyk is done to make the team more attractive to potential buyers. But they'll be young, and fast, and if MacLean gets back on track, a very entertaining team to watch. So forget losing Spezza and Michalek and Hemsky, forget Nick Bonino, forget Derek Roy. The team will be FINE next year.