Bill Meltzer: Flyers Farm System Review: 2014 Off-Season

Bill Meltzer: Flyers Farm System Review: 2014 Off-Season
- bmeltzer

Anyone with the size and skill level of Hayes is intriguing. If permission is granted to the Flyers to hammer out a deal and then they subsequently trade for his rights, I'd be OK with it-even though I am usually against trading assets for pending UFAs.

Obviously there are other NHL teams that may well promise him a top 9 NHL job off the bat. Given Hextall's repeated pronouncement that prospects will have to earn jobs, I can't see him doing that.

I'm not really worried about the lack of top forward prospects in the Organization at this time. For one reason, the aforementioned youth already on the Flyers. And the last few years the talk was always about how the team lacked quality defense prospects. Not look at the situation there? Things can change really quickly, and they normally do.

Anyone with the size and skill level of Hayes is intriguing. If permission is granted to the Flyers to hammer out a deal and then they subsequently trade for his rights, I'd be OK with it-even though I am usually against trading assets for pending UFAs.

Obviously there are other NHL teams that may well promise him a top 9 NHL job off the bat. Given Hextall's repeated pronouncement that prospects will have to earn jobs, I can't see him doing that.
- Jsaquella

Agreed. The most Hextall and Berube would do is say the lineup isn't set in stone and say he'd get a fair crack at a spot. But if Hayes is a good enough NHL-ready prospect, he'd rise to that challenge. To be totally honest, the prospect of having to beat out Umberger or Raffl for a scoring line spot shouldn't be all that daunting. And if Lecavalier gets dealt before the start of next season and there's suddenly two two-six spots up for grabs, Hayes' chances for winning a spot would improve even further.

Agreed. The most Hextall and Berube would do is say the lineup isn't set in stone and say he'd get a fair crack at a spot. But if Hayes is a good enough NHL-ready prospect, he'd rise to that challenge. To be totally honest, the prospect of having to beat out Umberger or Raffl for a scoring line spot shouldn't be all that daunting. And if Lecavalier gets dealt before the start of next season and there's suddenly two two-six spots up for grabs, Hayes' chances for winning a spot would improve even further.
- bmeltzer

Bill, didn't we acquire a 4th round pick in the Umberger trade? You stated it was a 3rd rounder. Not trying to nitpick, just wanted to make sure I wasn't missing something.

Bill Meltzer: Flyers Farm System Review: 2014 Off-Season
- bmeltzer

Good read Bill I all enjoy you're blogs ! That Hayes kid seems like an interesting prospect. The devils are also hurting in forward prospects but have a bevy of solid defense prospects so do you think the Hawks would have interest in santini or severson and would Hayes be worth one of those guys or are the hawks looking for picks only

The problem is that the Flyers are in the same boat as the Hawks. They both need to shed salary. So they are not good trading partners. The ony thing better than next year's second round pick (which the Flyers do not have) would be their first (which will likely be a higher draft position than where Hayes was selected). So the Flyers cannot trade the 2nd rounder they do not have; they cannot trade a roster player since the Hawks cannot accept more salary; and the Flyers would be crazy to trade away what is likely to be a lottery pick. Sounds like a non-starter to me. Hextall has not shown that he is willing to do the type of contortions required to get a Hayes deal done. We'll see....

The problem is that the Flyers are in the same boat as the Hawks. They both need to shed salary. So they are not good trading partners. The ony thing better than next year's second round pick (which the Flyers do not have) would be their first (which will likely be a higher draft position than where Hayes was selected). So the Flyers cannot trade the 2nd rounder they do not have; they cannot trade a roster player since the Hawks cannot accept more salary; and the Flyers would be crazy to trade away what is likely to be a lottery pick. Sounds like a non-starter to me. Hextall has not shown that he is willing to do the type of contortions required to get a Hayes deal done. We'll see....
- redcoat75

The Flyers don't need to shed salary. They have enough cap space to take on a player with an entry level deal. Hextall has been a GM for how many months? Not sure there is any track record on what he's willing to do yet.
In stating that the Flyers first round pick is likely to be a lottery pick, am I assuming correctly that you don't see them as a playoff team?

Agreed. The most Hextall and Berube would do is say the lineup isn't set in stone and say he'd get a fair crack at a spot. But if Hayes is a good enough NHL-ready prospect, he'd rise to that challenge. To be totally honest, the prospect of having to beat out Umberger or Raffl for a scoring line spot shouldn't be all that daunting. And if Lecavalier gets dealt before the start of next season and there's suddenly two two-six spots up for grabs, Hayes' chances for winning a spot would improve even further.
- bmeltzer

True. Raffl is a very smart kid and good two way player, but he wasn't exactly looking like a future Richard trophy winner. And Umberger is definitely a bit of a wildcard. If he is in decline, Hayes should be able to easily beat him out.

I'd definitely like to see Hextall use these examples as selling points.

Stolarz concerns me. I don't know if his maturity, and consistency levels are where they need to be. I guess we didn't learn from Bryz; size doesn't always mean that the puck will stay out of the net. Who is going to play with Stolarz once the season starts? I am surprised that we dumped Heeter. He had a rough first period last call up, but then he settled down quite a bit. Does this also mean, if Mason goes down, that Stolarz will be called up? I wouldn't feel very secure with that situation.
I hope that we get a chance to see Alt this season in the NHL. I like what he brings to the table, but if he doesn't get a call up, do we dump him at the end of the season like we did with Heeter?
Just thinking out loud. Thanks.

Bill, didn't we acquire a 4th round pick in the Umberger trade? You stated it was a 3rd rounder. Not trying to nitpick, just wanted to make sure I wasn't missing something.
- flyers4487

Yes, my bad. I changed the example into the 3rd round pick acquired from San Jose in the McGinn trade.

Good read Bill I all enjoy you're blogs ! That Hayes kid seems like an interesting prospect. The devils are also hurting in forward prospects but have a bevy of solid defense prospects so do you think the Hawks would have interest in santini or severson and would Hayes be worth one of those guys or are the hawks looking for picks only
- blizzzard

Yes, I Devils will be another interested team. I am not sure if the Hawks would value picks or prospects more.

Stolarz concerns me. I don't know if his maturity, and consistency levels are where they need to be. I guess we didn't learn from Bryz; size doesn't always mean that the puck will stay out of the net. Who is going to play with Stolarz once the season starts? I am surprised that we dumped Heeter. He had a rough first period last call up, but then he settled down quite a bit. Does this also mean, if Mason goes down, that Stolarz will be called up? I wouldn't feel very secure with that situation.
I hope that we get a chance to see Alt this season in the NHL. I like what he brings to the table, but if he doesn't get a call up, do we dump him at the end of the season like we did with Heeter?
Just thinking out loud. Thanks.
- OrangeAndBlack1

Rob Zepp will be the Phantoms' other goaltender. He is the subject of tomorrow's blog.

Did I really just see that yesterday Dubinsky got a $35million a year deal?

That seems like a lot for someone with a best season of 24 goals, 30 assists , -3 , 100pims in 77 games..

Stolarz concerns me. I don't know if his maturity, and consistency levels are where they need to be. I guess we didn't learn from Bryz; size doesn't always mean that the puck will stay out of the net. Who is going to play with Stolarz once the season starts? I am surprised that we dumped Heeter. He had a rough first period last call up, but then he settled down quite a bit. Does this also mean, if Mason goes down, that Stolarz will be called up? I wouldn't feel very secure with that situation.
I hope that we get a chance to see Alt this season in the NHL. I like what he brings to the table, but if he doesn't get a call up, do we dump him at the end of the season like we did with Heeter?
Just thinking out loud. Thanks.
- OrangeAndBlack1

I would think Zepp would be the guy called up if Mason were to go down, he has more experience. The Blackhawks once cut Hasek, I think we'll be ok without Heeter moving forward.

The problem is that the Flyers are in the same boat as the Hawks. They both need to shed salary. So they are not good trading partners. The ony thing better than next year's second round pick (which the Flyers do not have) would be their first (which will likely be a higher draft position than where Hayes was selected). So the Flyers cannot trade the 2nd rounder they do not have; they cannot trade a roster player since the Hawks cannot accept more salary; and the Flyers would be crazy to trade away what is likely to be a lottery pick. Sounds like a non-starter to me. Hextall has not shown that he is willing to do the type of contortions required to get a Hayes deal done. We'll see....
- redcoat75

1) The Flyers can absolutely take on another entry level salary. You are forgetting that they can make a paper move to send the contract to the AHL and then immediately we call him as soon as pronger goes on LTIR.

2) A second round pick in 2016 plus another asset is something north of the compensation Chicago will receive if he walks. The only difference is the 2nd round pick is one year further removed.

I'm not really worried about the lack of top forward prospects in the Organization at this time. For one reason, the aforementioned youth already on the Flyers. And the last few years the talk was always about how the team lacked quality defense prospects. Not look at the situation there? Things can change really quickly, and they normally do.
- MJL

While I agree that having young NHL forwards is a great situation, the lack of prospect depth at forward is a tremendous problem. There are two principle issues with this. The first is readily apparent - the Flyers have no legitimate top-line left wing, and acquiring one through a trade or FA is costly (though not as bad a acquiring a 1-2 defenseman. You need to have a pipeline of skilled forwards, just as you do young defensemen.

The second issue is more on an organizational level. These young guys need to gain confidence and learn to win. Look at the last Calder champions on the Phantoms. Richards, Carter, Umberger, Sharp, Nitti, Eager, Seidenberg, and others I'm missing. They learned to win together, gained confidence and went on to successful NHL careers.

As Bill points out in his blog, Straka and Cousins really didn't show anything last year. Part of this of course is that it was their first year at the pro level. But another part of that is that the organization fielded a team that might not have beaten the Edmonton Oil Kings last year. Maybe Straka would have done better with an offensively skilled center. Maybe Cousins would have done better playing on the 2nd line where he wasn't counted on to provide as much offense.

For this reason, regardless of how he does I would start Laughton at LV this year. You need to see what offense he can bring at the pro level or if, as Bill says, he is destined to be a 3rd line defensive forward. He needs top line minutes with more skilled forwards in order for the organization to make this determination. You also need to see if he can make players like Straka and Leier better (I think Leier is at LV this year, right?).

I think Hexy at least recgonizes the importance of having a more successful minor-league franchise, as he has brought in 3 or 4 career minor leaguers with offensive pop. I think the worst thing for Ghost, Haag and Stolarz is to get into a situation like last year's Phantoms. Confidence is too big a part of a young players path to success.

I think Hexy keeps his picks, he had a good draft and the rebuild is 3 to 5 years

The Flyers don't need to shed salary. They have enough cap space to take on a player with an entry level deal. Hextall has been a GM for how many months? Not sure there is any track record on what he's willing to do yet.
In stating that the Flyers first round pick is likely to be a lottery pick, am I assuming correctly that you don't see them as a playoff team?
- MJL

A couple of the offseason power rankings have the Flyers not making the playoffs this year, or barely getting in. It's a legitimate concern right now.

I think Hexy keeps his picks, he had a good draft and the rebuild is 3 to 5 years
- vejim

I think an exception would be made for an NHL-ready potential top six forward who was himself a first-round pick and is coming off a strong junior season and spectacular senior season at the collegiate level.

The most that Hextall and Craig Berube could or would tell Hayes is this: "We can't guarantee you a top-six spot or even an NHL job to start the season but we can promise that you will get a fair shot at earning a spot. The rest will be up to you, because we can't just hand you a spot."

Any organization that could or would guarantee him a top-six spot next season probably isn't a very good team, so I don't see that happening or appealing to Hayes.

At least this is something to watch for in the dog days...

A couple of the offseason power rankings have the Flyers not making the playoffs this year, or barely getting in. It's a legitimate concern right now.
- TheGreat28

Power rankings, especially in the off season, are meaningless. But it is tough to argue that the Flyers have gotten better this offseason. They have pretty much stayed the same.

I think an exception would be made for an NHL-ready potential top six forward who was himself a first-round pick and is coming off a strong junior season and spectacular senior season at the collegiate level.
- bmeltzer

No doubt. Plus Hexy will try to get some picks back by moving players either during this season or prior to the draft.

Agreed. The most Hextall and Berube would do is say the lineup isn't set in stone and say he'd get a fair crack at a spot. But if Hayes is a good enough NHL-ready prospect, he'd rise to that challenge. To be totally honest, the prospect of having to beat out Umberger or Raffl for a scoring line spot shouldn't be all that daunting. And if Lecavalier gets dealt before the start of next season and there's suddenly two two-six spots up for grabs, Hayes' chances for winning a spot would improve even further.
- bmeltzer

The fact that Raffl himself was an undrafted free-agent last year who now has a chance to compete for top 6 minutes has also got to be a selling point. As you say, if Hayes has any degree of confidence in himself he has got to view this as a great opportunity.

But, for whatever reason, the Flyers have not been successful recently in signing the most sought-after undrafted or unsigned free agents (Schultz, DeKeyser, etc) so I'm tempering my enthusiasm.

Any organization that could or would guarantee him a top-six spot next season probably isn't a very good team, so I don't see that happening or appealing to Hayes.

At least this is something to watch for in the dog days...
- wolfhounds

Actually, it is exactly what he wants. The money will be the same anywhere he goes because of the ELC rules. The reason he is resisting signing with Chicago is the lack of opportunity with all the depth that they have. he wants to play in the NHL next season. he also supposedly would rather stay on the East Coast. That does not necessarily mean he is set on playing in his hometown or playing with his brother. Those would just be bonuses.