Jason Lewis: Making Sense of a $10 Million AAV Deal for Kopitar

Jason Lewis: Making Sense of a $10 Million AAV Deal for Kopitar
- Jason_Lewis

I don't mind the contract... I do think Kopitar is a top 5-8 center in the NHL.

As a Kings fan, I would be worried about the cap - not likely to raise much in the near future (especially with the weakening Canadian dollar). Gonna be tight indeed moving forward with some of those contracts on aging vets.

That being said, the Kings had to keep Kopitar. Just like they will need to keep Doughty.

Is someone holding a gun to the Kings head and making them max out the contract length? I don’t understand why every extension has to be 8 years. If Kopitar, Perry, Getzlaf, Kane etc goes to UFA they can’t get 8 years so why does a new deal have to be 8 years?

Is someone holding a gun to the Kings head and making them max out the contract length? I don’t understand why every extension has to be 8 years. If Kopitar, Perry, Getzlaf, Kane etc goes to UFA they can’t get 8 years so why does a new deal have to be 8 years?
- al3535

That's the entire point to giving an advantage to the home team. They can add the extra year and keep their players.

That's the entire point to giving an advantage to the home team. They can add the extra year and keep their players.
- RogerRoeper

Agreed if it is an advantage to the team not the player. Signing a player well past his prime to an extra year when he’s over 35 seems like a disadvantage to me team wise. Probably 9/10 times the team would not be resigning the 35 year old to a 10 million dollar a year deal after the 7 year contract is completed.

Is someone holding a gun to the Kings head and making them max out the contract length? I don’t understand why every extension has to be 8 years. If Kopitar, Perry, Getzlaf, Kane etc goes to UFA they can’t get 8 years so why does a new deal have to be 8 years?
- al3535

Well for one it helps with AAV and two, if I were a player I too would be asking for the max. Anything can happen to an athlete at any given time. Especially in hockey. Do they make a lot of money to begin with, hell yeah they do. Wish I could play with Monopoly money for real. The years, in my opinion, are for team and player security for long term. Obviously the team may suffer in the end though

Happy they got it done.

I was talking to my Dad about this situation recently and I said to him that I thought Kopi was likely worth around 9/9.5 but would hopefully take 8.5 if he got the years (much like Quick taking a discount).

10 million is a "little" too high, I think...and at that price I think a 6 year deal would've made more sense, but, he's incredible and he's been absolutely crucial to this organization having 2 Cups in the last 5 years.

As Teddy KGB said, "Pay that man his money."

We are going to have this problem again in a few years with TT73. But I mean I guess its a good problem to have.

Too much, Monahans 6 mil deal and Gaudreau's 7-8 mil will make this deal look like crap, more than it already is, sorry kings fans, Kopi's one of the best, but not 10 million best.

Too much, Monahans 6 mil deal and Gaudreau's 7-8 mil will make this deal look like crap, more than it already is, sorry kings fans, Kopi's one of the best, but not 10 million best.
- Flamesfan_34

Good thing for us your opinion means poop

and kopi is saying "remember when i stick it in you last time?"

I think Kopitar is a top 3 center in the NHL. Only Crosby and Toews are better. Say what you want about Malkin, Giroux, Bergeron, Stamkos, Tavares, and Seguin, none of them are as good at EVERY aspect of the game as Kopitar.

Kopitar is the Kings first choice on the PK. Sutter has said many times that Kopitar is the best penalty killer on the team by far. He is also the first choice on the power play. This season, the Kings have taken more than their fair share of penalties, and it has resulted in Kopitar playing more minutes in every situation. He leads the Kings forwards in TOI in every situation (SH, PP, EV). He's 2nd for NHL forwards in time on ice behind only Ryan O'Reilly, and the Kings are actually doing well, while Buffalo is 29th in the league. He's the best forward (player?) on the team with the second most championships in salary-cap era NHL. He might not match the point totals of the high-scoring centers, but those teams don't compete for the Jennings trophies every year either.

He is elite at faceoffs, a beast on the forecheck, solid on the puck, and responsible off the puck. He is worth every penny of the $80M contract that he is going to sign tomorrow.

There is no sense in these deals You pay more to get less results Fans and GM's are the real suckers...............but mostly the fans because the GM's are spending YOUR money

Always liked Kopi - 10 mil - well someone was going to give it to him - Great player - solid guy - no issues - steady - works hard - Kings sure missed him when he cracked his wheel couple yrs ago -

Is someone holding a gun to the Kings head and making them max out the contract length? I don’t understand why every extension has to be 8 years. If Kopitar, Perry, Getzlaf, Kane etc goes to UFA they can’t get 8 years so why does a new deal have to be 8 years?
- al3535

You just cannot protect people from their own stupidity

Is someone holding a gun to the Kings head and making them max out the contract length? I don’t understand why every extension has to be 8 years. If Kopitar, Perry, Getzlaf, Kane etc goes to UFA they can’t get 8 years so why does a new deal have to be 8 years?
- al3535

If they don't give him 8 years, someone else will give him 7. That is one of the only incentives built into the CBA that gives teams a leg up on resigning their players.

Keep in mind, Kopitar is not going to be making $10M in salary next year. He will probably be making closer to $14M. The later years are going to drop off, with the total coming to $80M. If another team were to sign him to 7 years, they'd likely have to do 7-years, $74M to match the salary that he'll actually be making, and that would be a higher cap hit.

If they don't give him 8 years, someone else will give him 7. That is one of the only incentives built into the CBA that gives teams a leg up on resigning their players.

Keep in mind, Kopitar is not going to be making $10M in salary next year. He will probably be making closer to $14M. The later years are going to drop off, with the total coming to $80M. If another team were to sign him to 7 years, they'd likely have to do 7-years, $74M to match the salary that he'll actually be making, and that would be a higher cap hit.
- tkecanuck341

That makes enough sense but I thought in the new CBA that a salary could only fluctuate 10% + or - per year for the life of the deal, but I might be wrong on that.

I think Kopitar is a top 3 center in the NHL. Only Crosby and Toews are better. Say what you want about Malkin, Giroux, Bergeron, Stamkos, Tavares, and Seguin, none of them are as good at EVERY aspect of the game as Kopitar.

Kopitar is the Kings first choice on the PK. Sutter has said many times that Kopitar is the best penalty killer on the team by far. He is also the first choice on the power play. This season, the Kings have taken more than their fair share of penalties, and it has resulted in Kopitar playing more minutes in every situation. He leads the Kings forwards in TOI in every situation (SH, PP, EV). He's 2nd for NHL forwards in time on ice behind only Ryan O'Reilly, and the Kings are actually doing well, while Buffalo is 29th in the league. He's the best forward (player?) on the team with the second most championships in salary-cap era NHL. He might not match the point totals of the high-scoring centers, but those teams don't compete for the Jennings trophies every year either.

He is elite at faceoffs, a beast on the forecheck, solid on the puck, and responsible off the puck. He is worth every penny of the $80M contract that he is going to sign tomorrow.
- tkecanuck341

Excellent analysis! Glad Kopi is with us for 8 more. Great write up Jason!

Kopi's number doesn't bother me. What bothers me is the talent coming through the system. We need to have players with low cap hits, on RFA deals, that can contribute immediately to a playoff run. We still have that with McNabb and Shore this year. In 2012, we had it with Nolan, King, Amart, and Voynov. In 2014, we had Muzzin, TT, and Pearson on entry level deals. Those players have now graduated (or been deported) and are earning more and more money which will eat up space for quality depth going forward. Aside from Zykov and Kempe, we have meager quality coming through the farm system(I know an argument can be made for Dowd and probably others) and no first round pick until 2017. The decline in the team will happen when we get a top heavy roster like the Pens and we have to employ replacement-level players to play quality minutes in the playoffs.

Who knows, though: maybe after a few more Stanley Cups, no one will care about sucking for 1/2 a decade come the 2020's?

You just cannot protect people from their own stupidity
- holeinone

I've seen you post on different threads about Kopi's deal. Does your team affiliation and the mocking of the Kopitar deal strike you as ironic, too?

For all "Front-Loaded SPCs" (as defined below), the difference between the stated Player Salary and Bonuses in any immediately adjacent League Years of that SPC cannot exceed thirty-five (35) percent of the stated Player Salary and Bonuses of the first League Year of such Front-Loaded SPC. Additionally, under no circumstances may the stated Player Salary and Bonuses in any League Year of a Front-Loaded SPC be less than fifty (50) percent of the highest stated Player Salary and Bonuses in a League Year of that same Front-Loaded SPC.
- NHL CBA

So if he makes $14M in his highest paid season, he can't be paid less than $7M in any of the 7 seasons.

The point of a NHL franchise is to win the cup. LA has won it young and early with Kopitar. They think they have shot to win at least a few more times. If they don't win in the next couple years THEY ARE IN A WORLD OF HURT with these contracts.

Kopitar won a few cups but is not worth 10 million, unless he a part of an LA King cup run again.

My point is, if the team keeps winning cups, who cares what the players make because the goal is to win cups.

If they don't win, its gonna get ugly.

You just cannot protect people from their own stupidity
- holeinone

LOL, true enough.

Always liked Kopi - 10 mil - well someone was going to give it to him - Great player - solid guy - no issues - steady - works hard - Kings sure missed him when he cracked his wheel couple yrs ago -
- dozerD10

no doubt about it. on all counts.

This. Kopitar is soon much more to the Kings than a goal scorer. If this means Lucic has to go, so be it. Lucic can be replaced, Kopitar can't. Great signing!