Bill Meltzer: Flyers Gameday: 1/7/19 vs. STL; Flyers at Midpoint: Inside the Numbers

Bill, I appreciate you trying to end the article on an upbeat note, but man it's a depressing read. Glad we've got you around to break it down intelligently. At this point I'm not even worried about what the new GM will do. Everyone knows something has to change (which probably puts him in a tougher situation negotiation wise, but also means every team is calling.)
I missed the Calgary game, I'm beginning to think that may not have been a bad thing.

As a team, the Flyers rank 9th both in Corsi and Fenwick metrics.

This is an interesting statement. It goes to my theory that while advanced stats are good to use as part of the equation, over reliance can lead to false conclusions, both from a team and player evaluation standpoint.

Excellent breakdown Bill, but I'm not sure if the goaltending will be any better in the second half. This is not a dig at Carter Hart, because I don't expect Hart to be up with the Flyers much longer, or more accurately, I hope he's not. As soon as any of Stolarz, Neuvirth or Elliott are healthy enough to play, I'm hoping they send Hart back to the Phantoms. Playing behind this bunch is doing the kid no favors. I'd much rather see him playing for the Phantoms down the stretch and into the playoffs.

Let's not forget that Hart is only 20 years old and a first year pro. In the long run isn't it better for him to be playing for a good AHL team right now rather than an NHL team in freefall? Plus, they might as well go with the crappy vets at this point and maximize their chance at as high a draft pick as possible. That's really the only good thing they can hope for from this miserable season.

This is an interesting statement. It goes to my theory that while advanced stats are good to use as part of the equation, over reliance can lead to false conclusions, both from a team and player evaluation standpoint.
- MBFlyerfan

Yup, those stats show overall trends, but don't take into consideration the 3 or 4 absolutely horrible breakdowns that usually end up in the Flyers net on most nights.

FWIW
Here is who I think the Flyers should be shopping between now and the deadline and also what I think they can reasonably expect to get for them:

Simmonds
At best if you add in one of their two 3rds, I think they can get a late first from a contender along with a conditional 3rd in 2020 if the acquiring team re-signs him and/or goes to the finals.

Raffl
Can possibly get you a late 3rd from a contender who is banged up on the wing. However a 4th is more likely

Weal
Can maybe get you a 6th from a team looking to add offensive depth. Could perhaps get you a 5th if they add in one of their 7ths

Folin
Can maybe get you a 6th from a team a looking to add defensive depth, though a 7th is more likely.

AMac
I just don't see anyone going for him right now considering the way he's been getting dinged up and with one more year at a 5 million cap and 5.75 million in actual salary. Maybe if they retain half, they can get a 4th, but that's about the best they can expect. Probably better off to just keep him for now and revisit moving him after the season.

Weise
Maybe, if they retain half, they can get "future considerations" ie someone taking him off their hands, for good old Horseface. I wouldn't hold your breath though.

And there you have it. Personally, I wouldn't be shopping Gudas as he's currently their only rh Dman. Lets see what Myers can do next year and you can revisit moving Gudas at next year's deadline, or if they are a playoff team and he's playing well, you just keep him at that point. Sometimes you're just going to lose guys in FA for nothing, it's not the end of the world. Finally, when it comes to the 2 vet goalies, forget it, no one is giving up anything for either of them at this point. That ship has sailed.

This is an interesting statement. It goes to my theory that while advanced stats are good to use as part of the equation, over reliance can lead to false conclusions, both from a team and player evaluation standpoint.
- MBFlyerfan

There aren't any false conclusions to be made. They aren't as bad as their record indicates and it is because of horrendous special teams (excluded from the advanced stats) and league worst goaltending.

How does one go from watching the eagles to watching this group of players?

How does one go from watching the eagles to watching this group of players?
- Just5

Booze.
Lots and lots of booze.

FWIW
Here is who I think the Flyers should be shopping between now and the deadline and also what I think they can reasonably expect to get for them:

Simmonds
At best if you add in one of their two 3rds, I think they can get a late first from a contender along with a conditional 3rd in 2020 if the acquiring team re-signs him and/or goes to the finals.

Raffl
Can possibly get you a late 3rd from a contender who is banged up on the wing. However a 4th is more likely

Weal
Can maybe get you a 6th from a team looking to add offensive depth. Could perhaps get you a 5th if they add in one of their 7ths

Folin
Can maybe get you a 6th from a team a looking to add defensive depth, though a 7th is more likely.

AMac
I just don't see anyone going for him right now considering the way he's been getting dinged up and with one more year at a 5 million cap and 5.75 million in actual salary. Maybe if they retain half, they can get a 4th, but that's about the best they can expect. Probably better off to just keep him for now and revisit moving him after the season.

Weise
Maybe, if they retain half, they can get "future considerations" ie someone taking him off their hands, for good old Horseface. I wouldn't hold your breath though.

And there you have it. Personally, I wouldn't be shopping Gudas as he's currently their only rh Dman. Lets see what Myers can do next year and you can revisit moving Gudas at next year's deadline, or if they are a playoff team and he's playing well, you just keep him at that point. Sometimes you're just going to lose guys in FA for nothing, it's not the end of the world. Finally, when it comes to the 2 vet goalies, forget it, no one is giving up anything for either of them at this point. That ship has sailed.
- BiggE

I think there is going to be a lot of interest in our prospects as well. Question is whether or not Fletcher deals them.

I think there is going to be a lot of interest in our prospects as well. Question is whether or not Fletcher deals them.
- FlyersGrace

I doubt he moves any prospects or picks between now and the deadline. Some may be moved at the draft, but I'd be shocked if our 2019 1st, Frost, Myers or Farabee were to be dealt. Hart also isn't going anywhere unless Edmonton is sending McDavid back, LOL.

I don't think we're going to see any sort of trades until we're deep into February.

Hopefully, in that stretch, the Flyers have a mini renaissance to get us all sucked back in and gives Chuck Fletcher enough leverage to get some decent deals made.

I got offered free tickets for tonight's game and turned them down. Yup, it's that bad.

FWIW
Here is who I think the Flyers should be shopping between now and the deadline and also what I think they can reasonably expect to get for them:

Simmonds
At best if you add in one of their two 3rds, I think they can get a late first from a contender along with a conditional 3rd in 2020 if the acquiring team re-signs him and/or goes to the finals.

Raffl
Can possibly get you a late 3rd from a contender who is banged up on the wing. However a 4th is more likely

Weal
Can maybe get you a 6th from a team looking to add offensive depth. Could perhaps get you a 5th if they add in one of their 7ths

Folin
Can maybe get you a 6th from a team a looking to add defensive depth, though a 7th is more likely.

AMac
I just don't see anyone going for him right now considering the way he's been getting dinged up and with one more year at a 5 million cap and 5.75 million in actual salary. Maybe if they retain half, they can get a 4th, but that's about the best they can expect. Probably better off to just keep him for now and revisit moving him after the season.

Weise
Maybe, if they retain half, they can get "future considerations" ie someone taking him off their hands, for good old Horseface. I wouldn't hold your breath though.

And there you have it. Personally, I wouldn't be shopping Gudas as he's currently their only rh Dman. Lets see what Myers can do next year and you can revisit moving Gudas at next year's deadline, or if they are a playoff team and he's playing well, you just keep him at that point. Sometimes you're just going to lose guys in FA for nothing, it's not the end of the world. Finally, when it comes to the 2 vet goalies, forget it, no one is giving up anything for either of them at this point. That ship has sailed.
- BiggE

BLASPHEMY! Every single impending UFA must be traded for futures, no exceptions no matter what.

But I agree, although that 1st from a potential Simmonds deal may be a conditional.

yikes

Yup, those stats show overall trends, but don't take into consideration the 3 or 4 absolutely horrible breakdowns that usually end up in the Flyers net on most nights.
- BiggE

it does however hammer home the point the Flyers have ZERO closers...

Not that it matters, but Jordan Binnington is scheduled to get his first NHL start in goal.

ttt

So even the stats dont know why we suck

Not that it matters, but Jordan Binnington is scheduled to get his first NHL start in goal.
- Blues65

congrats in advance for his first NHL shutout win

Not that it matters, but Jordan Binnington is scheduled to get his first NHL start in goal.
- Blues65

LOL Berube knows. Throw the backup at the Flyers and you will win

I'm willing to trade Voracek. His brain dead passes to nowhere and stupid stupid penalties make me want to tear my thinning hair out.

I'm willing to trade Voracek. His brain dead passes to nowhere and stupid stupid penalties make me want to tear my thinning hair out.
- bodiva88

Yeah, it's definitely time to move on there. Probably not a move that's going to happen til the off-season though.

I got offered free tickets for tonight's game and turned them down. Yup, it's that bad.
- jsh139

They aren't even worth the price of parking. And they're sure as poop not worth going out in the the cold for either.