Jeremy Laura: 7117 - Detroit’s concept album gone wrong. Also, a note about Colby Cave

Hey Jeremy. It seems like this Erne thing is really bothering you. Maybe think of it like this…we’re probably going to sign Erne for less than $1M. If he wins a job at camp that’s awesome. If he loses a job to say Givani Smith then we simply waive Erne without any impact on our cap. If he’s claimed then you’re still happy. If he’s unclaimed, then he helps Grand Rapids and maybe plays his way back to the NHL. Erne at age 24 has more potential to help an NHL team one day than older guys like Turner Elson, Matt Puempel, and Chris Terry. So if Yzerman cuts loose one of these older guys in Grand Rapids, and re-signs Erne for less than $1M then it really isn’t that big of a deal.

As for Lyle’s speculation on Tampa letting go of Cirelli or Sergachev, well, I think he’s really not understanding their cap situation. Both players are incredibly valuable pieces to that organization at a time when their window to win is right now. They will exhaust so many other options before giving away either guy for draft picks in return. Watch Palat, Johnson, Killorn and Gourde. One of those guys is likely on the way out to create flexibility to sign Cirelli and Sergachev. A free compliance buyout gives even more flexibility if a trade can't be worked out.

Hope that's not perceived as negative. Just my perspective.

Kooleus :
Jeremy did mention signing Erne at league minimum.......
As for Tampa's jettisoning a player, I agree with you that it would be a vet. Because Johnson has been seeing a lot of 4th line minutes, I believe it would be him. I wouldn't mind this "Red Wing killer" being on Detroit. He is somebody that would be on the 2nd line right away and has proven ability and can move up and down the line-up as well as play wing or center.

Kooleus :
Jeremy did mention signing Erne at league minimum.......
As for Tampa's jettisoning a player, I agree with you that it would be a vet. Because Johnson has been seeing a lot of 4th line minutes, I believe it would be him. I wouldn't mind this "Red Wing killer" being on Detroit. He is somebody that would be on the 2nd line right away and has proven ability and can move up and down the line-up as well as play wing or center.
- HenryHockey

Yes I know he mentioned Erne getting league minimum, but he also seems very disappointed that the Wings are considering bringing him back (ie labelling him Abdelkader 2.0, etc...). The point I've made today, and in previous articles, is that Erne is an upgrade on guys like Terry, Puempel, and Elson. He's much younger. He has much more potential to contribute at the NHL level. It's zero risk to sign him for $1M or less and just waive him if guys like Smith, Svech, Rasmussen, etc...outperform and win a job. I'm just confused why Jeremy (and a couple of other posters) are so bothered by re-signing him. Is there the same angst about re-signing Perlini, Timashov, Ehn, Hirose - they are all RFAs in the same boat.

Hey Jeremy. It seems like this Erne thing is really bothering you. Maybe think of it like this…we’re probably going to sign Erne for less than $1M. If he wins a job at camp that’s awesome. If he loses a job to say Givani Smith then we simply waive Erne without any impact on our cap. If he’s claimed then you’re still happy. If he’s unclaimed, then he helps Grand Rapids and maybe plays his way back to the NHL. Erne at age 24 has more potential to help an NHL team one day than older guys like Turner Elson, Matt Puempel, and Chris Terry. So if Yzerman cuts loose one of these older guys in Grand Rapids, and re-signs Erne for less than $1M then it really isn’t that big of a deal.

As for Lyle’s speculation on Tampa letting go of Cirelli or Sergachev, well, I think he’s really not understanding their cap situation. Both players are incredibly valuable pieces to that organization at a time when their window to win is right now. They will exhaust so many other options before giving away either guy for draft picks in return. Watch Palat, Johnson, Killorn and Gourde. One of those guys is likely on the way out to create flexibility to sign Cirelli and Sergachev. A free compliance buyout gives even more flexibility if a trade can't be worked out.

Hope that's not perceived as negative. Just my perspective.
- Kooleus

Thanks for that. My biggest issue with signing Erne is that he would have to be waived down to GR, and at that price probably a pickup for another team. Regardless on whether he would stick or no, I just feel like he’s the player we don’t need right now. The caveat is, did everyone have a horrible season because goaltending and an awful defense made forechecking nearly impossible? When Erne was brought in, I’d speculated the same, that he seemed like another Abdelkader. Some had projected he would score 10 - 15 goals, maybe even hit 20. I just feel that since Smith would have to hit waivers, in my mind he’s stronger in the corners and a better net front presence. We still have Helm and Glenny (both of whom played their guts out and it’s appreciated). My ponderings land on why not do a PTO? You are right, at the AHL level he’d be an upgrade to some of the bodies. It just felt like a signing that provided very little.

I do agree that TB would be loathe to give up Sergachev and/or Cirelli. I’ve now seen multiple sources “ponder” Killorn being moved out. In truth, almost any player in TB could take a job in Detroit if they were brought over. Well done sir

Kooleus :
Jeremy did mention signing Erne at league minimum.......
As for Tampa's jettisoning a player, I agree with you that it would be a vet. Because Johnson has been seeing a lot of 4th line minutes, I believe it would be him. I wouldn't mind this "Red Wing killer" being on Detroit. He is somebody that would be on the 2nd line right away and has proven ability and can move up and down the line-up as well as play wing or center.
- HenryHockey

I thought last year that Johnson may find his way over. TB knows he can be valuable in a long playoff run, but tough decisions are coming. I’d love to see him come over as well. He’s just relentless and fights above his weight class

Thanks for that. My biggest issue with signing Erne is that he would have to be waived down to GR, and at that price probably a pickup for another team. Regardless on whether he would stick or no, I just feel like he’s the player we don’t need right now. The caveat is, did everyone have a horrible season because goaltending and an awful defense made forechecking nearly impossible? When Erne was brought in, I’d speculated the same, that he seemed like another Abdelkader. Some had projected he would score 10 - 15 goals, maybe even hit 20. I just feel that since Smith would have to hit waivers, in my mind he’s stronger in the corners and a better net front presence. We still have Helm and Glenny (both of whom played their guts out and it’s appreciated). My ponderings land on why not do a PTO? You are right, at the AHL level he’d be an upgrade to some of the bodies. It just felt like a signing that provided very little.

I do agree that TB would be loathe to give up Sergachev and/or Cirelli. I’ve now seen multiple sources “ponder” Killorn being moved out. In truth, almost any player in TB could take a job in Detroit if they were brought over. Well done sir
- Jeremy Laura

So you don't like signing Erne because someone might claim him on waivers? I doubt anyone claims him so probably not a big risk. He also has enough potential to get a contract with somebody as opposed to a PTO. Also, remember that it's not Erne or Smith. They can both make it, especially if Abby gets waived or bought out.

So you don't like signing Erne because someone might claim him on waivers? I doubt anyone claims him so probably not a big risk. He also has enough potential to get a contract with somebody as opposed to a PTO. Also, remember that it's not Erne or Smith. They can both make it, especially if Abby gets waived or bought out.
- Kooleus

There are many reasons I don’t like the signing, but signing him with the intent to waive or even the probability doesn’t make much sense. I know they can technically both make the team, but it’s not a player we need multiples of. We have more “grinders” than we need. If Larkin/Mantha/Bert is top, and Fabbri/Fil/Zadina is 2nd line, Ras/Svech/Smith is your possible third line (smith and Svech both require waivers) and Glenny/Helm/Nielsen/Abby/Timashov/Ehn (if they bring T and E back) are all fighting for 4th line spots. Abby could be waived or compliance, Nielsen could be compliance. There are just a lot of players that are fighting for those bottom spots and to me, Erne hasn’t shown he’s better than Glenny, Helm, Nielsen or even Timashov (if he’s back). Again, it’s my opinion. I brought up waivers because you’d talked about sending Erne down to GR as being an improvement. If he can find a deal somewhere else, I’d be fine with that

There are many reasons I don’t like the signing, but signing him with the intent to waive or even the probability doesn’t make much sense. I know they can technically both make the team, but it’s not a player we need multiples of. We have more “grinders” than we need. If Larkin/Mantha/Bert is top, and Fabbri/Fil/Zadina is 2nd line, Ras/Svech/Smith is your possible third line (smith and Svech both require waivers) and Glenny/Helm/Nielsen/Abby/Timashov/Ehn (if they bring T and E back) are all fighting for 4th line spots. Abby could be waived or compliance, Nielsen could be compliance. There are just a lot of players that are fighting for those bottom spots and to me, Erne hasn’t shown he’s better than Glenny, Helm, Nielsen or even Timashov (if he’s back). Again, it’s my opinion. I brought up waivers because you’d talked about sending Erne down to GR as being an improvement. If he can find a deal somewhere else, I’d be fine with that
- Jeremy Laura

I get a feeling that Erne will be signed for $800K, if only to be a throw in on a trade. Stevie has some 2nds and grinders he might wanna spend on goaltenders or a defense prospect. There are some teams that are over stocked in their pipelines. There will also be teams that need to offload a bad contract and a pick for a grinder. I could see CLB taking an Erne for Wenburg and a 2nd, for instance.

I'm kinda laughing out loud at all the ink spent on Erne. Worst case scenario is he signs for under $1M, sucks at camp, gets waived, and either gets claimed by someone else (no big deal since he sucks right) or he clears and is a better piece in Grand Rapids than say Turner Elson.

You guys also should remember that your job as a GM isn't just to think about opening night, but also the entire season. Next year we'll have Glendening, Helm, and Filppula as expiring UFA's. Fabbri might sign a 1-year deal as well. So you could have 4 assets that Yzerman looks to sell as rentals. Suppose he moves 2 of these guys. Now add a couple guys on IR. Suddenly we're trying to make it through the final 20 games of the season with a depleted roster. This is where calling up a solid pro like Erne is a better option than throwing in Veleno to the wolves.

Trust me. Ive got a few connections. Erne is coming back so you might want to warm up to it...

I'm kinda laughing out loud at all the ink spent on Erne. Worst case scenario is he signs for under $1M, sucks at camp, gets waived, and either gets claimed by someone else (no big deal since he sucks right) or he clears and is a better piece in Grand Rapids than say Turner Elson.

You guys also should remember that your job as a GM isn't just to think about opening night, but also the entire season. Next year we'll have Glendening, Helm, and Filppula as expiring UFA's. Fabbri might sign a 1-year deal as well. So you could have 4 assets that Yzerman looks to sell as rentals. Suppose he moves 2 of these guys. Now add a couple guys on IR. Suddenly we're trying to make it through the final 20 games of the season with a depleted roster. This is where calling up a solid pro like Erne is a better option than throwing in Veleno to the wolves.

Trust me. Ive got a few connections. Erne is coming back so you might want to warm up to it...
- Kooleus

Part of this is opinion. You brought up Erne and I answered. At this point you just seem to want to argue. I tried to give you reasons for my personal opinion to respect your comments. You don’t seem to have the ability to do the same.

Without directly wading into what's already been argued, I'll say that I'm fine with bringing Erne back as long as it's a number that can be fully buried in the AHL ($1,075,000 or less), although it's not really a strong endorsement.

On the one hand, no question he was awful this year, but unlike some of the other players who were also awful (Abdelkader, Nielsen, Ehn) I think Erne still has some "bounce back" potential. He'll only be 25, and the analytics on him pre-Detroit generally suggested "decent bottom six defensive forward."

On the other hand, it's always been curious to me that Erne is just flat out never used on the penalty kill (in Tampa or Detroit), despite generally good even strength shot impacts in the defensive zone (and despite Detroit getting awful PK results using their other personnel). I'm going to say his coaches probably know something I don't here.

Obviously even strength performance is the most important slice of the game, but a bottom six defensive forward that doesn't score or help set up offense in the attacking zone and doesn't kill penalties seems ripe for replacement by somebody who can maybe do at least one of those things.

Without directly wading into what's already been argued, I'll say that I'm fine with bringing Erne back as long as it's a number that can be fully buried in the AHL ($1,075,000 or less), although it's not really a strong endorsement.

On the one hand, no question he was awful this year, but unlike some of the other players who were also awful (Abdelkader, Nielsen, Ehn) I think Erne still has some "bounce back" potential. He'll only be 25, and the analytics on him pre-Detroit generally suggested "decent bottom six defensive forward."

On the other hand, it's always been curious to me that Erne is just flat out never used on the penalty kill (in Tampa or Detroit), despite generally good even strength shot impacts in the defensive zone (and despite Detroit getting awful PK results using their other personnel). I'm going to say his coaches probably know something I don't here.

Obviously even strength performance is the most important slice of the game, but a bottom six defensive forward that doesn't score or help set up offense in the attacking zone and doesn't kill penalties seems ripe for replacement by somebody who can maybe do at least one of those things.
- Sven22

This should be a fitting ending to the Erne debate!

In 2017 and 2018 Erne was just earning an NHL role in Tampa. He played 26 and 23 games in those seasons. Is that the kind of player you would expect to be heavily used on a PK?

In 2019, Erne was established full-time in Tampa. He didn't PK, because Cooper had plenty of other guys to draw upon - Cirelli, Killorn, Pacquette. You can't knock that decision as Tampa had the #1 PK unit in the NHL.

In 2020, Erne played for a guy named Jeff Blashill. He stuck with veterans like Glendening, Helm, Nielsen, Filppula. We had the worst PK in the NHL. Guys like Fabbri, Perlini, Timashov, Givani Smith also never had a second on the PK. They might be worth a look too.