Theo Fox: Get Me a 6 Pack
A look at whether the Blackhawks blueline pipeline is strong enough to churn out a solid Starting 6 especially if a prototypical Big 3 isn’t in the cards.

I think you need a big three to win a Cup. If not you have to have it corrected by dmen capable of at least getting the puck up ice qnd an elite goaltender capable of bailing you out; PLUS a great offence to outscore. You can go far but win a Cup it's difficult. Even Pittsburg had Letang and a couple of plus defenders with him. They also had a great offense and elite goaltending at the time.
Tampa had a big three plus the other ingredients. The Blues had a big three and elite goaltending. Washington had elite goaltending in the play offs, a top end defender and a supporting cast plus was highly offensive.

All teams had a solid middle with at least two pieces in the middle playing at an elite level.

Hey Theo! Thanks for the blog and analysis.

While we can project, I think it's still way too early to tell what these guys end up being.

Even with the benefit of hindsight, it's hard to look at the first seasons of our big 3 (2, 4 and 7) where you could have definitively predicted or even guessed their career trajectories would have turned out so rosy.

The Detroit blogger, Jeremy Laura, had a recent blog titled "Detroit Glass Works" where he wrote about the development of prospects and the factors which may hinder them - injuries, junior/college game doesn't translate to the NHL, burnout, family issues, among other things. It's a good read, look it up.

He goes on to say that he doesn't get too high or too low on prospects. Fans typically get overexcited about the potential of their prospects and follow their careers closely, but a glut of those guys remain in the minors or play bottom 6 (or in the Hawks case regarding their defense prospects, bottom pair) minutes.

So while it's nice to speculate where all the these Hawks prospects will fit in 2 or 3 years from now, let's not assume as Theo said, all or many of them will reach their potential. And once they get here and show they are capable of staying in the league, the old rule of thumb for defensemen to play a couple of hundred of games to gain NHL experience comes into play.

The Detroit blogger, Jeremy Laura, had a recent blog titled "Detroit Glass Works" where he wrote about the development of prospects and the factors which may hinder them - injuries, junior/college game doesn't translate to the NHL, burnout, family issues, among other things. It's a good read, look it up.

He goes on to say that he doesn't get too high or too low on prospects. Fans typically get overexcited about the potential of their prospects and follow their careers closely, but a glut of those guys remain in the minors or play bottom 6 (or in the Hawks case regarding their defense prospects, bottom pair) minutes.

So while it's nice to speculate where all the these Hawks prospects will fit in 2 or 3 years from now, let's not assume as Theo said, all or many of them will reach their potential. And once they get here and show they are capable of staying in the league, the old rule of thumb for defensemen to play a couple of hundred of games to gain NHL experience comes into play.
- boilermaker100

If two of the D men currently in the pipeline become solid top 4 contributors I’ll be happy.

The Blackhawks are in rebuild mode, by their own admission. They are looking to the future, and wanting to compete again before the window has closed on Kane, Toews & Keith.

They have a plethora of young promising defenseman, as Theo has succinctly outlined. Not all will make it and be NHL contributors, but based on the numbers, enough should.

That makes deHaan, and especially Murphy, valuable trade chips at the upcoming season's trade deadline. The youngsters will have had an additional year to matriculate, and moving Calvin & Connor can yield some nice picks/prospects, as well as opening up spots for the youth.

I know the Hawks with "the big three" did win three cups, but I think the third cup. showed us how difficult it can get. Remember how they struggled against the Ducks, only to win in seven ..... and the Lightning in the finals were no day at the beach, winning in six, but many games being 2-1 games. You can certainly win with a big three, as the Hawks showed .... but if you can find a solid six .... that might possibly be even better ! Top threes show wear and tear down the road as our three show. Remember how excited everyone got when TVR came back from injury to join the defenemen Had to play Runblad, just so the top three could catch a breather
Kimmo Timonen was on his last legs and we prayed that he could just give us ten minutes of desent play per game. Give me a KEY THREE with a SOLID SIX

I think the defense is an area that EVERY NHL team hopes they can get right where there chosen actually elevate in all areas especially the ones where they need improvement.

The Hawk defense teamwide, was below average.

That doesn't let the defenseman off the hoo.

And as a far as the future, I simply dont see them I loving in on ANY NEWBIES where they start signing them for impact dollars.

That include re-ups to Murphy.

Maybe after what we see what we got with Ian Mitchell, we all decide he is not an offense juggernaut, not the big bodied anchor, but he will be an all-around guy who fits at the right money, I predict. (This coming from the guy who has told everyone to pump the brakes on "seeing these picks as "something" before they show they are, not a game in his belt.)

I see Boqvist with all his skills finally unleashed, but that doesn't necessarily assure he is a long term placeholder.
Right, now, I just dont see a firm developed horizon of high quality all-around defenders in place, even with the picks.
(You have to wonder if they are hooping they luck out and get giant Hedman lie Owen Power in next year defense class..)

I just think that I have confidence that the organization knows what they had in the past three Cup wins' nd are going to hold that standard...and they are going to trade away any guys who don't show growth enough IQ to play back there, and will keep sending them packing ala Forsling, if they don't take the next step.

They have enough younger developing guys and they way you keep the AHL starters hungry will be by them seeing that the parent club is not being patient with the new younger core, and is going to make room as the hockey operations become disenchanted...there has got to be a carrot, no false promises.
Remember, Kevin Hayes,tweet Free Jeremy Morin?
If the next gen of minor pros feel that the new"Quenville" lie there is little chance of NHL pathway, you will have that same issue.

I THINK THE TEAM HAS BEEN pretty good at drafting thing a loo at those defenders and deciding quickly and releasing/not signing them.

I am gonna use Beaudin as the example. There IS something there.
You have to try it, you don't want to not grow it, but the sufficient amount of auditions to see where there game is, if it is an NHL worthy one, and then keep drafting and moving on.



Me thinks they may also set sights on the Swedish goaler,

https://www.draftsite.com...r/jesper-wallstedt/32330/

I am sure their intel is better than mine, but Jesper maybe isn't as profound Yaroslav was in this past class, but he looks like a comer.

I think that despite my own feeling that they need more dominant forwards, this draft is great opportunity to get a close to guaranteed big NHL possible, without much downside of chance of it being a mistake.

But wouldn't it be something if they also found a dominant forward for the future?

If two of the D men currently in the pipeline become solid top 4 contributors I’ll be happy.
- Ogilthorpe2

Ogi, How are you now?

I have been meaning to specificity this question due to your clear NO RUSSIAN IN THE FIRST ROUND stand.

I was listening to a predator announcer saying the best best part of Askarov WAS that he was that "reverse" right catching goaltender (like Tomáš Vokoun was.)...

His point was NHL attacker nowadays don't even look up as they are assessing where they are going with the puck...if the are accustomed to glove-side high, they are on past experience and almost instinctive muscle and mind memory to continue to shoot there, not thinking the goalie they now face is stick side there.

This pundit said more better favoring Yaroslav Askarov.

I want to know what you think, Ogi? (Everyone else too!)

Maybe I am not in that camp, that NHL shooters know who is the net and adjust,

Also to me, his defenders have to adjust to a difference too.

I speak with the position of really not knowing if being the rare right catching glove goaltender is an advantage of not...I dunno I think not...

Whatya' think?

If two of the D men currently in the pipeline become solid top 4 contributors I’ll be happy.
- Ogilthorpe2

Yeah, I think you mean REAL top four, as in top forum on a Cup challenger.

and that is why I think the search is far from over...prospect-wise.

Ogi, How are you now?

I have been meaning to specificity this question due to your clear NO RUSSIAN IN THE FIRST ROUND stand.

I was listening to a predator announcer saying the best best part of Askarov WAS that he was that "reverse" right catching goaltender (like Tomáš Vokoun was.)...

His point was NHL attacker nowadays don't even look up as they are assessing where they are going with the puck...if the are accustomed to glove-side high, they are on past experience and almost instinctive muscle and mind memory to continue to shoot there, not thinking the goalie they now face is stick side there.

This pundit said more better favoring Yaroslav Askarov.

I want to know what you think, Ogi? (Everyone else too!)

Maybe I am not in that camp, that NHL shooters know who is the net and adjust,

Also to me, his defenders have to adjust to a difference too.

I speak with the position of really not knowing if being the rare right catching glove goaltender is an advantage of not...I dunno I think not...

Whatya' think?
- wiz1901

I personally think the true top 6 forwards don't look at the puck while they are shooting, they are looking for any window. Like saying a point guard watches himself dribble the ball.

I personally think the true top 6 forwards don't look at the puck while they are shooting, they are looking for any window. Like saying a point guard watches himself dribble the ball.
- BetweenTheDots

Well, I meant the forwards do t look to the goalie as much h as the spot is pi kd out in relation to the look, but the goalie had --si it possibly ignored as the way sorta like I always shoot her for going high w/o looking uo and suddenly there is a revelation ohmigosh it is the other side I want..."

I wasn't clear.

MacKenzie Weeger, 3 years $3.25 mil. AAV, I would take Connor Murphy and his $500K a year more in AAV any day.

Good blog Theo! I know he is older, but I wouldn't ignore Zadorov being in future lineups. He's not a big numbers guy, so he won't command a ton of money, and both Stan and the coach has pumped his tires a bit regarding the unique attributes he brings to the team. Maybe if Regula or Vlasic move into that role they move on, but I would guess that he is here longer term and not shorter.

I think the defense is an area that EVERY NHL team hopes they can get right where there chosen actually elevate in all areas especially the ones where they need improvement.

The Hawk defense teamwide, was below average.

That doesn't let the defenseman off the hoo.

And as a far as the future, I simply dont see them I loving in on ANY NEWBIES where they start signing them for impact dollars.

That include re-ups to Murphy.

Maybe after what we see what we got with Ian Mitchell, we all decide he is not an offense juggernaut, not the big bodied anchor, but he will be an all-around guy who fits at the right money, I predict. (This coming from the guy who has told everyone to pump the brakes on "seeing these picks as "something" before they show they are, not a game in his belt.)

I see Boqvist with all his skills finally unleashed, but that doesn't necessarily assure he is a long term placeholder.
Right, now, I just dont see a firm developed horizon of high quality all-around defenders in place, even with the picks.
(You have to wonder if they are hooping they luck out and get giant Hedman lie Owen Power in next year defense class..)

I just think that I have confidence that the organization knows what they had in the past three Cup wins' nd are going to hold that standard...and they are going to trade away any guys who don't show growth enough IQ to play back there, and will keep sending them packing ala Forsling, if they don't take the next step.

They have enough younger developing guys and they way you keep the AHL starters hungry will be by them seeing that the parent club is not being patient with the new younger core, and is going to make room as the hockey operations become disenchanted...there has got to be a carrot, no false promises.
Remember, Kevin Hayes,tweet Free Jeremy Morin?
If the next gen of minor pros feel that the new"Quenville" lie there is little chance of NHL pathway, you will have that same issue.

I THINK THE TEAM HAS BEEN pretty good at drafting thing a loo at those defenders and deciding quickly and releasing/not signing them.

I am gonna use Beaudin as the example. There IS something there.
You have to try it, you don't want to not grow it, but the sufficient amount of auditions to see where there game is, if it is an NHL worthy one, and then keep drafting and moving on.



Me thinks they may also set sights on the Swedish goaler,

https://www.draftsite.com...r/jesper-wallstedt/32330/

I am sure their intel is better than mine, but Jesper maybe isn't as profound Yaroslav was in this past class, but he looks like a comer.

I think that despite my own feeling that they need more dominant forwards, this draft is great opportunity to get a close to guaranteed big NHL possible, without much downside of chance of it being a mistake.

But wouldn't it be something if they also found a dominant forward for the future?
- wiz1901

Hey Wiz! I know he is not a traditional "power forward" type, but I really like Reichel's overall game. He's already shown he can play in corners against men, and thinks a fast game. Where do you think he fits in ultimately?

Theo - great blog as always!!!! Unless i missed, are you assuming Zadorov is not with the Hawks as part of the 'Big 6' ?

Good blog Theo! I know he is older, but I wouldn't ignore Zadorov being in future lineups. He's not a big numbers guy, so he won't command a ton of money, and both Stan and the coach has pumped his tires a bit regarding the unique attributes he brings to the team. Maybe if Regula or Vlasic move into that role they move on, but I would guess that he is here longer term and not shorter.
- Chunk

Agreed, I would like to have more than one of that kind of Dman anyway.

I think you need a big three to win a Cup. If not you have to have it corrected by dmen capable of at least getting the puck up ice qnd an elite goaltender capable of bailing you out; PLUS a great offence to outscore. You can go far but win a Cup it's difficult. Even Pittsburg had Letang and a couple of plus defenders with him. They also had a great offense and elite goaltending at the time.
Tampa had a big three plus the other ingredients. The Blues had a big three and elite goaltending. Washington had elite goaltending in the play offs, a top end defender and a supporting cast plus was highly offensive.

All teams had a solid middle with at least two pieces in the middle playing at an elite level.
- BluemanGuruu

I *think* we're on the same page as the premise of my blog was about having all 6 defensemen capable of defending well in their zone, flipping the ice, and getting the action moving quickly to the other side.

Perhaps I could've spelled that out a little more, so sorry if there was lack of clarity.

You are correct that it's not just the D corps that needs to be rock solid but also the goalie and the forwards from the top players to the role players. I didn't talk about those other elements since they weren't the focus of the blog.

But you give me ideas for future blog topics

Hey Theo! Thanks for the blog and analysis.

While we can project, I think it's still way too early to tell what these guys end up being.

Even with the benefit of hindsight, it's hard to look at the first seasons of our big 3 (2, 4 and 7) where you could have definitively predicted or even guessed their career trajectories would have turned out so rosy.
- HawkintheD

Very true. Boqvist is a good example. He didn't set the world on fire in his rookie season but still has the potential to do so whether as a 1st pair defender or down a notch.

On the flipside, there could be a D prospect not getting much fanfare now who could emerge as one of the best blueliners for the Hawks in due time. You never know, Krys or Galvas or Crevier could be staples on the back end.

Not saying they will be Big 3 material but at least worthy of being reliable anywhere they may slot.

The Detroit blogger, Jeremy Laura, had a recent blog titled "Detroit Glass Works" where he wrote about the development of prospects and the factors which may hinder them - injuries, junior/college game doesn't translate to the NHL, burnout, family issues, among other things. It's a good read, look it up.

He goes on to say that he doesn't get too high or too low on prospects. Fans typically get overexcited about the potential of their prospects and follow their careers closely, but a glut of those guys remain in the minors or play bottom 6 (or in the Hawks case regarding their defense prospects, bottom pair) minutes.

So while it's nice to speculate where all the these Hawks prospects will fit in 2 or 3 years from now, let's not assume as Theo said, all or many of them will reach their potential. And once they get here and show they are capable of staying in the league, the old rule of thumb for defensemen to play a couple of hundred of games to gain NHL experience comes into play.
- boilermaker100

Great summary. I saw that article by the Detroit blogger. Good perspective to remember there are a myriad of factors that impact development (good and bad).

The Blackhawks are in rebuild mode, by their own admission. They are looking to the future, and wanting to compete again before the window has closed on Kane, Toews & Keith.

They have a plethora of young promising defenseman, as Theo has succinctly outlined. Not all will make it and be NHL contributors, but based on the numbers, enough should.

That makes deHaan, and especially Murphy, valuable trade chips at the upcoming season's trade deadline. The youngsters will have had an additional year to matriculate, and moving Calvin & Connor can yield some nice picks/prospects, as well as opening up spots for the youth.
- scottak

Exactly, you don't need all of the prospects to make it as there wouldn't be enough spots anyway. Good problem to have if they do because you trade some of them for other needed assets.

For each pair, you would need two to make it.

1st pair options: Beaudin, Boqvist, Mitchell

2nd pair options: Carlsson, Kaiser, Kalynuk, Vlasic

3rd pair options: Demin, Galvas, Krys, Phillips, Regula

This doesn't count future draft picks, trades, and free agent signings.

It also doesn't count other D prospects I didn't include above like Ess, Laavainen, Moberg, Krutil, and Crevier.

I didn't even mention Zadorov or Lindholm from the Saad trade.

I know the Hawks with "the big three" did win three cups, but I think the third cup. showed us how difficult it can get. Remember how they struggled against the Ducks, only to win in seven ..... and the Lightning in the finals were no day at the beach, winning in six, but many games being 2-1 games. You can certainly win with a big three, as the Hawks showed .... but if you can find a solid six .... that might possibly be even better ! Top threes show wear and tear down the road as our three show. Remember how excited everyone got when TVR came back from injury to join the defenemen Had to play Runblad, just so the top three could catch a breather
Kimmo Timonen was on his last legs and we prayed that he could just give us ten minutes of desent play per game. Give me a KEY THREE with a SOLID SIX
- chuckdahammer

Great examples. A Big 3 is nice but you can also run them to the ground by over taxing them because the other 3-4 defenders are not up to snuff.

If you have a solid Starting 6 instead, you can spread out the workload and rely on more players than just a few then hold your breath when those stars aren't on the ice.

Even if your top pair plays 30 minutes a game, that's 30 minutes that you have to have other D-men on the ice.

Good blog Theo! I know he is older, but I wouldn't ignore Zadorov being in future lineups. He's not a big numbers guy, so he won't command a ton of money, and both Stan and the coach has pumped his tires a bit regarding the unique attributes he brings to the team. Maybe if Regula or Vlasic move into that role they move on, but I would guess that he is here longer term and not shorter.
- Chunk

Yeah, I hesitated on whether to include Zadorov in the blog. To keep it simpler, I focused on D prospects and blueliners with less than a full season of NHL experience like Boqvist.

Yet, I could see Zadorov as being with the Hawks beyond this season. Just hope Bowman isn't quick to re-sign him like he did with Anisimov. There's time to make the right choice and get the numbers right.

Hey Wiz! I know he is not a traditional "power forward" type, but I really like Reichel's overall game. He's already shown he can play in corners against men, and thinks a fast game. Where do you think he fits in ultimately?
- Chunk

Reichel also isn't shy to crash the net. You love to see that and know he will only get better as his body matures.

Theo - great blog as always!!!! Unless i missed, are you assuming Zadorov is not with the Hawks as part of the 'Big 6' ?
- glennjpawlak22

Thanks, Glenn! See my post above in response to Chunk who said something similar.

In short, yes, I could see Zadorov with the Hawks a bit longer than 2020-21.