Theo Fox: Top Prospects: Defensemen
Part 2 of a 3-part series reviewing the Blackhawks prospect rankings.

Today: Defensemen
Friday: Goalies

Great write up Theo!

I could see where none of these guys may be with the parent team to start the season, with some spots potentially opening up at the TDL or before.

I could see deHaan being traded to make room for Carlsson and the addition of Zadorov makes me wonder if that makes Murphy available at some point this year.

Right now they are the only two rearguards on the team that play a heavier game, but with Seabrook pretty much untradable and Mitchell possibly pushing for a spot this season, maybe they trade Murphy to open up a spot on the right side.

I was waiting for this one Theo!!!!

What we lack in upside forward prospects, we have in spades in this group of D-men. I know Boqvist not in your list....but when you add him to the top 5 you listed, what a collection of Top 4 potential.

In fact....in 2 years time....if things work out decently....we can have Boqvist, Mitchell, Beaudin eating big minutes in the top 4, and enough info
on the rest to be able to move a piece or two to acquire a quality forward.

Defence are always a highly sought after asset. Moving a good young D-man when the time comes could really add to our forward mix!!!

Nice blog Theo. My guess your blog on goalie prospects in the system will probably be one of your shortest blogs of the season.

So if the NHL goes to a all Canadian division next year, and are looking to play in "hubs" based on geography, since Winnipeg would be out in the central, would we see Detroit back into the "Central" or whatever they are going to call the Hawks Hub.

Figure the rest of St. Louis, Minnesota, Dallas, Nashville, Colorado, would still be in the Hawks "Hub".

So if the NHL goes to a all Canadian division next year, and are looking to play in "hubs" based on geography, since Winnipeg would be out in the central, would we see Detroit back into the "Central" or whatever they are going to call the Hawks Hub.

Figure the rest of St. Louis, Minnesota, Dallas, Nashville, Colorado, would still be in the Hawks "Hub".
- LAHawk

I read where all the divisions will be realigned with COL, MIN and DAL going west to give them 8 teams along with Vegas ARI and the 3 California teams. Central may be composed of Hawks, STL NSH. DET. CBJ, CAR, TB FLA.

I also read about another novel approach. Split the remaining 24 USA teams into 4-6 team divisions... West. East South and Lakes with the Hawks in the latter with MIN, DET, CBJ BUF AND PIT

So if the NHL goes to a all Canadian division next year, and are looking to play in "hubs" based on geography, since Winnipeg would be out in the central, would we see Detroit back into the "Central" or whatever they are going to call the Hawks Hub.

Figure the rest of St. Louis, Minnesota, Dallas, Nashville, Colorado, would still be in the Hawks "Hub".
- LAHawk

AND....with Detroit there....at least, would be somewhat of a battle for last....

Maybe
7 Canada - Oilers, Leafs, Jets, Flames, Canucks, Canadians, Senators
6 Northeast - Flyers, Pens, Islanders, Rangers, Devils, Bruins
6 Southeast - Caps, Preds, Lightning, Canes, Stars, Panthers
6 Central - Blues, Hawks, Wings, Wild, Sabres, Blue Jackets
6 West - Avs, Kings, Yotes, Sharks, Knights, Ducks

I hope 3 or 4 make it as regulars eventually. One thing I don't like is that the 3 projected top pair Boqvist, Mitchell Beaudin are all in the 5-11 180 lb range. Most if not all other teams have bigger guys 6-3 or more on their 1st pair... Hedman, Jones/Werenski, Slavin/Hamilton, Lindell/Klingberg, Parayko to name a few.

The Hawks in their heyday had 6-1 Keith and 6-3 Seabrook.

IMO the Hawks will need some bigger guys on their 1st pair to go up against opponents top lines and clear the front of the net on the PK. Is someone like Owen Power the answer. If so if the Hawks can nab him in the 2021 draft, he's 3 or 4 years out.

You know what really complicates the drafting and subsequent growth of prospects into NHL defenders that fill roles in pairings on Cup contending teams?
The Marc Giordano factor -where after you get a guy in your AHL farm team and he gradually sees the ice and plays the position with instinct, adds muscle, and snarl. And you do not expect or plan on their ascension, until they by way of their play, make the NHL club take notice.
This was not an overnight transformation and growth, and everything from the 100 player NHL team prospect lists to numbers / logjams at the parent club have teams having to decide, keep him around, or move on.

I guess the only time I confronted StanBo with a question he didn’t t answer and told me one on one to “not worry about it.” That was at the first convention.
But, if I for whatever reason was a six foot or so away from Stan in some “meeting” I think I have one question I would ask him.
A thoughtful answer would help me to understand a little better at the reasoning and thought processes involved with still developing defenders.
It would be about Justin Holl, and the fact that they lined up for that 2010 draft with SIX picks in the first three rounds or if we subtract the 3rd round ( Joakim Nordstrom ) FIVE picks in the first two rounds, FOUR in the 2nd round. The picks were nicely spattered through the round.
I will subtract the goalie (Kent Simpson) because by the end of the 2nd round (#58), teams start looking for developmental goalies and it is an apple dunk.

Well what is your question the Stan Bowman, windbag you just keep running on does sentences!
Q:
Stan: You drafted Justin Holl, a college bound Minnesota Mr. Hockey finalist with your second of four second rounders. Along the road, in 2014-2015, he played for the Icehogs and Indy Fuel.
At the and of the 2015 season, a decision was made to not offer him a continued pro two way contract.

That made him a free agent and he eventually signed an AHL only contract in 2015 for a year and then was signed to a two-way Leafs/ Marlie deal in July 2016.


Last season, Holl spent the entire season with the Leafs playing 68 games, including 5 playoff games.

So Stan, I am not sure, if you would categorize him as “one who got away”, or “a late bloomer” but I am curious who the initial decision as made in 2015 to cut bait.

Can you tell me the inner workings of that decision? What players in Rockford and the system helps cement it?


So, if one youse guys is Stan’s son, or former basement bunker (take it easy, Kane-I mean his billet),
Can you get a lengthy explanation?

I am just trying to find out how the kid in the DUB, Cole Moberg, gets a time to show you that booming Shea Weber type shot if he does get a quick look-see and quick decision boot into free agency.

see where I am going?

Maybe
7 Canada - Oilers, Leafs, Jets, Flames, Canucks, Canadians, Senators
6 Northeast - Flyers, Pens, Islanders, Rangers, Devils, Bruins
6 Southeast - Caps, Preds, Lightning, Canes, Stars, Panthers
6 Central - Blues, Hawks, Wings, Wild, Sabres, Blue Jackets
6 West - Avs, Kings, Yotes, Sharks, Knights, Ducks
- -Doh-

I was hearing that Tampa, panthers, Preds, red wings, and another team and hawks in some goofy division.

Again I am gonna gibe Gary Bettman judos for sending the future to committees and no rash back steps, just taking it day by day to keep playing so the fans keep seeing the sport. Bravo.

Happy Veterans and Remembrance Day to all who have served their countries. I appreciate your sacrifices and efforts.

You know what really complicates the drafting and subsequent growth of prospects into NHL defenders that fill roles in pairings on Cup contending teams?
The Marc Giordano factor -where after you get a guy in your AHL farm team and he gradually sees the ice and plays the position with instinct, adds muscle, and snarl. And you do not expect or plan on their ascension, until they by way of their play, make the NHL club take notice.
This was not an overnight transformation and growth, and everything from the 100 player NHL team prospect lists to numbers / logjams at the parent club have teams having to decide, keep him around, or move on.

I guess the only time I confronted StanBo with a question he didn’t t answer and told me one on one to “not worry about it.” That was at the first convention.
But, if I for whatever reason was a six foot or so away from Stan in some “meeting” I think I have one question I would ask him.
A thoughtful answer would help me to understand a little better at the reasoning and thought processes involved with still developing defenders.
It would be about Justin Holl, and the fact that they lined up for that 2010 draft with SIX picks in the first three rounds or if we subtract the 3rd round ( Joakim Nordstrom ) FIVE picks in the first two rounds, FOUR in the 2nd round. The picks were nicely spattered through the round.
I will subtract the goalie (Kent Simpson) because by the end of the 2nd round (#58), teams start looking for developmental goalies and it is an apple dunk.

Well what is your question the Stan Bowman, windbag you just keep running on does sentences!
Q:
Stan: You drafted Justin Holl, a college bound Minnesota Mr. Hockey finalist with your second of four second rounders. Along the road, in 2014-2015, he played for the Icehogs and Indy Fuel.
At the and of the 2015 season, a decision was made to not offer him a continued pro two way contract.

That made him a free agent and he eventually signed an AHL only contract in 2015 for a year and then was signed to a two-way Leafs/ Marlie deal in July 2016.


Last season, Holl spent the entire season with the Leafs playing 68 games, including 5 playoff games.

So Stan, I am not sure, if you would categorize him as “one who got away”, or “a late bloomer” but I am curious who the initial decision as made in 2015 to cut bait.

Can you tell me the inner workings of that decision? What players in Rockford and the system helps cement it?


So, if one youse guys is Stan’s son, or former basement bunker (take it easy, Kane-I mean his billet),
Can you get a lengthy explanation?

I am just trying to find out how the kid in the DUB, Cole Moberg, gets a time to show you that booming Shea Weber type shot if he does get a quick look-see and quick decision boot into free agency.

see where I am going?
- wiz1901

I do Wiz...but, as a guy who watches a LOT of Leafs games....in NO WAY would I label him as "one who got away". Holl is not good at hockey. The only reason he played was Leaf desperation, due to injuries and a CAP crunch. Holl was one Stan was right to pass on.....

I do Wiz...but, as a guy who watches a LOT of Leafs games....in NO WAY would I label him as "one who got away". Holl is not good at hockey. The only reason he played was Leaf desperation, due to injuries and a CAP crunch. Holl was one Stan was right to pass on.....
- hawk35

Oh, I agree...on Holl, but the question still lingers....what is the thinking...and no matter if you and I can pick holes in his game, but the Cap crunch and whatever Leaf issues he is playing at a low salary and a filler....

and I want every pick to be a Lake Wobegon where the prospect is brilliant, high character, and assertive on the ice...and want to know why others were re-signed, that is all. What was their thinking process?

Oh, I agree...on Holl, but the question still lingers....what is the thinking...and no matter if you and I can pick holes in his game, but the Cap crunch and whatever Leaf issues he is playing at a low salary and a filler....

and I want every pick to be a Lake Wobegon where the prospect is brilliant, high character, and assertive on the ice...and want to know why others were re-signed, that is all. What was their thinking process?
- wiz1901

No doubt....In some instances the thinking process is evident (ie Jokiharju for Nylander). Agree or not on the trade itself, the attempt to part with a D-man...when room for him would be limited going forward, for a winger with flaws, but apparent "upside". That is a trade where you can see the plan. Right or wrong. But, like you said, the deciding factor at crunch time with some of these prospects...the rational is not nearly as clear.

In my thought, it is not as clear with them either. So much goes into such a decision. Where do you see them in your organisation in 5 years?....what kind of contract issues may we have???...where we develop them (AHL, college, overseas, etc)...The style or character of an individual....yes, it WOULD be nice to know many of these things. But, my guess is we (like we are here, somewhat) will have to speculate a lot.

Always like your posts Wiz. Always insightful and informative!!!

My main thoughts on the Hawks dmen situation.
Don't be in a rush to make moves. You basically have 2 dmen you can count on Keith and Murphy. You have 2 dmen recovering from surgeries in Seabs and DeHaan. Then you have a number of younger players with potential. If DeHaan and Seabs are healthy it will be a dog fight for roster spots and playing time. It would not be bad to start with Keith, Murphy, DeHaan, Zadorov, Seabs, Carlsson and Boqvist on the NHL roster. Then Mitchell, Beaudin, Kalynuk, Regula, Lindholm, Krys, and Seeler at the Rock. As their play warrants it or as injuries occur you can shuttle dmen back and forth from the Rock to the Hawks. No need to rush anyone.

I read where all the divisions will be realigned with COL, MIN and DAL going west to give them 8 teams along with Vegas ARI and the 3 California teams. Central may be composed of Hawks, STL NSH. DET. CBJ, CAR, TB FLA.

I also read about another novel approach. Split the remaining 24 USA teams into 4-6 team divisions... West. East South and Lakes with the Hawks in the latter with MIN, DET, CBJ BUF AND PIT
- boilermaker100

Named Norris, Smythe, Adams and Patrick?

No doubt....In some instances the thinking process is evident (ie Jokiharju for Nylander). Agree or not on the trade itself, the attempt to part with a D-man...when room for him would be limited going forward, for a winger with flaws, but apparent "upside". That is a trade where you can see the plan. Right or wrong. But, like you said, the deciding factor at crunch time with some of these prospects...the rational is not nearly as clear.

In my thought, it is not as clear with them either. So much goes into such a decision. Where do you see them in your organisation in 5 years?....what kind of contract issues may we have???...where we develop them (AHL, college, overseas, etc)...The style or character of an individual....yes, it WOULD be nice to know many of these things. But, my guess is we (like we are here, somewhat) will have to speculate a lot.

Always like your posts Wiz. Always insightful and informative!!!
- hawk35

Exactly like the Schmautz for Strome and Perlini. Did we really lose the trade. Schmautz for $5.85 million for 7 more years is very unappealing to me.

Theo
You follow the Ice Hogs. I appreciate that. If the Hogs started the year with Mitchell, Beaudin, Kalynuk, Regula, Lindholm, Krys, and Seeler at the Rock on D and either Lankinen or Delia in net, how would that compare to prior years.

Always like your posts Wiz. Always insightful and informative!!!
- hawk35

Thanks!

Especially when mob posts are readable...lol...

I tied to hammer out the first round plus of there 2021 prospects actually based on past evaluations because I want to be one of the sites (DraftSite) where "something" was written, and not just names - a nice preview even though the 2020 draft had taken place less than ten days before.
So, I get 'ere...done...and then like a week later I decide I will look at them and each and everyone was full of typos, bad sentences (compared to my good run sentences) spelling errors the spellcheck "caught" and "fixed" and gibberish.

My face actually turned read because it seemed like each and everyone had something wacky when you read through, and looked bad, BAD! That is why I want you guys to read them and OM as may secretaries!
They are now more logical, maybe,lol!

Theo
You follow the Ice Hogs. I appreciate that. If the Hogs started the year with Mitchell, Beaudin, Kalynuk, Regula, Lindholm, Krys, and Seeler at the Rock on D and either Lankinen or Delia in net, how would that compare to prior years.
- -Doh-

I know the heavier AHL veterans would plan on playing them tough.

I know the heavier AHL veterans would plan on plaiting them tough.
- wiz1901

Would that be a bad thing? If they made the NHL the players would plan on doing the same thing. Might as well get tested and adapt to it as best they can as soon as they can.

Avg age in AHL is only 22 yrs old. Most of these guys have played against older players throughout their careers anyway.

Exactly like the Schmautz for Strome and Perlini. Did we really lose the trade. Schmautz for $5.85 million for 7 more years is very unappealing to me.
- LAHawk

That is the new NHL.
I saw your "California leaving" posts and basically the second and third deals of early drafted players are California like and are burdensome and guesses.

I knew Nick Schmaltz was going because they were going to even venture into. long term relationship where he gets impact player money...especially after Edzo started harping on his lack of recognition and not making defensive plays (contact) when the puck transition away from the hawks...

This IS the new NHL...(before Covid-19 anyway...GMs and agents seeing if it is even worth talking contract if there was a crevasse and simply going the trade route and getting a new guy to evaluate and decide on is worth keeping and eventually playing.

The thing I lie about our Strome right now is:

a) He has very little bargaining power.

b) He was a junior scorer/ generator and knows that part already.

c) He is young....23 years old...and isn't taking his foot off of improving. We cn talk about weaknesses player to player, but I like as many long reached attackers s possible. The feet, even the edge sometimes arrives when they relax after feeling pressure.

d) and I think c leads to a "show us you are worth it" deal in the future, and there are simply not enough of them around for these bridge contract not done being rounded young NHLers.

I know the heavier AHL veterans would plan on playing them tough.
- wiz1901

Would that be a bad thing? If they made the NHL the players would plan on doing the same thing. Might as well get tested and adapt to it as best they can as soon as they can.

Avg age in AHL is only 22 yrs old. Most of these guys have played against older players throughout their careers anyway.
- -Doh-

No not a bad thing, but a baptism like the German Swede and Finns who get promoted to the higher elite leagues full of grizzled v its who think little about targeting the youngsters beyond the rule book, behind the play, etc.

Great write up Theo!

I could see where none of these guys may be with the parent team to start the season, with some spots potentially opening up at the TDL or before.

I could see deHaan being traded to make room for Carlsson and the addition of Zadorov makes me wonder if that makes Murphy available at some point this year.

Right now they are the only two rearguards on the team that play a heavier game, but with Seabrook pretty much untradable and Mitchell possibly pushing for a spot this season, maybe they trade Murphy to open up a spot on the right side.
- HawkintheD

That sounds like a plausible and fair scenario. Start with the veterans then work in the youth over the course of the season.

Another scenario is Colliton starting with the youth movement right off the bat and having Seabrook as the 7th man which opens up a spot for Mitchell.

A part of me feels that Colliton already has Seabrook earmarked as the 7th man no matter how healthy he is and strongly he plays in training camp.

Carlsson gets his chance with de Haan's fate, i.e. injured again, healthy scratch, or traded.