Jeremy Laura: 5 games left, Wings vs Canes VIII - can Detroit take the series?

First

First
- ShooterMcGavin

Nicely done!

How on earth did you get a morphing avatar?!!!

Current place - 24th
First round pick without lottery win - between 8 and 10

Nitpick, but going by points percentage Detroit is really in 26th place, not 24th.

- LA is 1 point behind with 4 games in hand and both tiebreakers.
- Vancouver is 2 points behind with 8 games in hand.

Probability-wise the Red Wings are about ~85% likely to finish somewhere between 25th and 28th place. They're likely to lose a little ground in the end (unless they almost win out) because Van / LA are both likely to pass them and Ottawa and Columbus are right on their heels.

That would put them in the 6-9 range for a first-round pick (assuming they miss the lottery and drop 1-3 spots -- one for Seattle, and up to two more if teams ahead of them in the standings win lottery picks).

Which, to be honest, I'm fine with. Obviously I'll take a lottery win if I can get it but:

- This draft is generally regarded to not have any clear superstars in it, so a first or second overall pick might not be as valuable as it usually is.

- Historically speaking the difference in projected outcomes between a guy taken sixth overall versus eighth or ninth is almost nothing, and this year there's even more uncertainty than usual due to COVID messing up junior leagues and player development.

At this point with the Wings comfortably ahead of at least Buffalo, NJ and Anaheim, and (in my opinion) not too much to get worked up about improving their lottery odds by a couple percentage points, I'd like to see the team work hard, play their best, and win as many as they can out of their last five.

EDIT: To be clear, assuming Detroit stays out of the bottom 3 and does not win a lottery pick, their best case draft scenario is 5th overall (if two of BUF, NJ, ANA win the lottery picks) and worst-case scenario that isn't ludicrously improbable is like 10th.

Nitpick, but going by points percentage Detroit is really in 26th place, not 24th.

- LA is 1 point behind with 4 games in hand and both tiebreakers.
- Vancouver is 2 points behind with 8 games in hand.

Probability-wise the Red Wings are about ~85% likely to finish somewhere between 25th and 28th place. They're likely to lose a little ground in the end (unless they almost win out) because Van / LA are both likely to pass them and Ottawa and Columbus are right on their heels.

That would put them in the 6-9 range for a first-round pick (assuming they miss the lottery and drop three spots -- two for the lottery winners and one for Seattle).

Which, to be honest, I'm fine with. Obviously I'll take a lottery win if I can get it but:

- This draft is generally regarded to not have any clear superstars in it, so a first or second overall pick might not be as valuable as it usually is.

- Historically speaking the difference in projected outcomes between a guy taken sixth overall versus eighth or ninth is almost nothing, and this year there's even more uncertainty than usual due to COVID messing up junior leagues and player development.

At this point with the Wings comfortably ahead of at least Buffalo, NJ and Anaheim, and (in my opinion) not too much to get worked up about improving their lottery odds by a couple percentage points, I'd like to see the team work hard, play their best, and win as many as they can out of their last five.
- Sven22

they need help all over so they can easily just pick the BPA.

they need help all over so they can easily just pick the BPA.
- wingz4life

Truth

#RedWings Adam Erne is on NHL COVID protocol list. False positive? Erne was among the group of Wings on COVID protocol in January.

— Ansar Khan (@AnsarKhanMLive) April 28, 2021

[quote=HenryHockey]


Thanks for the heads up H2. It’s a thin lineup already.

[quote=Jeremy Laura] Fabbri is also out.....still

[quote=HenryHockey]

Yep. Larkin, Bert, Ryan too. Rough run

hmmm

Nitpick, but going by points percentage Detroit is really in 26th place, not 24th.

- LA is 1 point behind with 4 games in hand and both tiebreakers.
- Vancouver is 2 points behind with 8 games in hand.

Probability-wise the Red Wings are about ~85% likely to finish somewhere between 25th and 28th place. They're likely to lose a little ground in the end (unless they almost win out) because Van / LA are both likely to pass them and Ottawa and Columbus are right on their heels.

That would put them in the 6-9 range for a first-round pick (assuming they miss the lottery and drop 1-3 spots -- one for Seattle, and up to two more if teams ahead of them in the standings win lottery picks).

Which, to be honest, I'm fine with. Obviously I'll take a lottery win if I can get it but:

- This draft is generally regarded to not have any clear superstars in it, so a first or second overall pick might not be as valuable as it usually is.

- Historically speaking the difference in projected outcomes between a guy taken sixth overall versus eighth or ninth is almost nothing, and this year there's even more uncertainty than usual due to COVID messing up junior leagues and player development.

At this point with the Wings comfortably ahead of at least Buffalo, NJ and Anaheim, and (in my opinion) not too much to get worked up about improving their lottery odds by a couple percentage points, I'd like to see the team work hard, play their best, and win as many as they can out of their last five.

EDIT: To be clear, assuming Detroit stays out of the bottom 3 and does not win a lottery pick, their best case draft scenario is 5th overall (if two of BUF, NJ, ANA win the lottery picks) and worst-case scenario that isn't ludicrously improbable is like 10th.
- Sven22

they need to really be in the tank race next season with Shane Wright and the Connor Bedard in 23'.

im sorry but they need a superstar or two. they need strength up the middle, both of those guys plays C. none of this picking 7th-10th and getting a "good player".

i want them to win but not enough to take themselves out of getting the best chances at those 2.