Michael Stuart: Winning the Lottery Before the Lottery

No snub on Zub! We all are Ec-Zub-erous over this success!

I’ll admit I didn’t really watch any sens games after the trade deadline but going off your article is it fair to expect a top four of Chabot, zaitsev, zub and branstrom next season or do you think that Dorian will likely bring in an established player to further insulate the D to help the team take that next step?

Great summary! My only comment is that they should have signed him for longer term of 3 or 4 years, even though it would have increased his avg annual salary. That length of term could have overlapped with some of their younger talent is ready to takeover, but that is not a guarantee and they could always trade a top four defensemen

The 22-year-old (Mete) spoke to TSN 1200 and had this to say about the difference between the two clubs:

It's a new lease on life, getting claimed by Ottawa. It's been great here. I was able to go out and play my game knowing if I made a mistake, I wasn't going to (get) pulled. The team and my agent are working on a deal. I hope it works out. I want to come back here and be a part of this.

The Ottawa Senators have decided they are not interested in bringing back goaltender Marcus Hogberg next season. General manager Pierre Dorion confirmed the news on Friday.

I like Mete... but having two 5'9'' D is a little worrisome. That being said, I'd rather have that than bringing in pylons like Coburn again.

I like Mete... but having two 5'9'' D is a little worrisome. That being said, I'd rather have that than bringing in pylons like Coburn again.
- PogBoi

I agree with your point. Don't want to see a selection of old pylons added to line-up for next year.

But, it did work pretty good in having those guys in the line-up in the early season. I got to blame them when everything went wrong. They took the heat and it shielded the kids from excessive criticism. But, the kids were pretty slack as well, especially in terms of their defensive responsibilities.

I look at Buffalo where all the pressure was put on the draft picks to turn things around for everyone. It appears they tried to improve too fast and are now experiencing the weight of unreasonable expectations.

Buffalo has great, knowledgable fans. So, i don't think it is the fans who are pushing beyond reason. Difficult when ownership is unreasonable in the expectations. I still worry that Melnyk is going to mess this up. But, he has been a good boy now for the last couple years. The yacht law suit has me a little worried that he may be on the verge of relapse mode.

I would not be surprised to hear of Melnyk dying this offseason.
Yes seriously.
And Im not being morbid. He's not young, and he's not healthy.
Like. Betty White is a hundred. I have no sense she's gonna pass on any time soon.
But Melnyk lives hard and well....he's on borrowed organs.

I like Mete. And, I could see some outside the box thinking and try him on wing. He reminds me of Pageau in some ways.

How good was that Florida v. Tampa game last night. I didn't want to miss a second.

I like Mete... but having two 5'9'' D is a little worrisome. That being said, I'd rather have that than bringing in pylons like Coburn again.
- PogBoi

I think they will roll with both for a season or two but there will likely come a time where they look to part ways with one or the other via trade to address another area. Transitional speed is very important in todays game, so if they improve on that ability, that should make up for the smaller size.

I think they will roll with both for a season or two but there will likely come a time where they look to part ways with one or the other via trade to address another area. Transitional speed is very important in todays game, so if they improve on that ability, that should make up for the smaller size.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

My original thought when they picked Mete up off waivers was that it might create some kind of competition with Brannstrom. But after a few viewings it seems pretty clear that Brannstrom has a substantially higher potential. Mete is an undeniably great skater, but doesn't seem to do enough with the puck to effectively translate that into offensive chances. And despite being virtually the same size, Brannstrom also seems to play a bit 'bigger' in terms of physical involvement. As such, I think the ceiling for Mete is that of a mobile 3rd-pairing guy, who can play bigger minutes on occasion if required.

Despite the difference in potential, on a playoff-quality team you ideally wouldn't have two 5'9/180 guys on the blueline. The interesting long-term question will be if Brannstrom will find a long-term home on the top-2 pairings when Chabot/Sanderson become the backbone of the blueline at LHD, and he's trying to play top-4 minutes as a LHD on the right side vs. Bernard-Docker, Zub, and Thomson as natural RHD. If that becomes an issue, it's not that hard to see Brannstrom potentially seeking a top-4 role elsewhere, and Mete settling in long-term on the Senators' 3rd pairing.

My original thought when they picked Mete up off waivers was that it might create some kind of competition with Brannstrom. But after a few viewings it seems pretty clear that Brannstrom has a substantially higher potential. Mete is an undeniably great skater, but doesn't seem to do enough with the puck to effectively translate that into offensive chances. And despite being virtually the same size, Brannstrom also seems to play a bit 'bigger' in terms of physical involvement. As such, I think the ceiling for Mete is that of a mobile 3rd-pairing guy, who can play bigger minutes on occasion if required.

Despite the difference in potential, on a playoff-quality team you ideally wouldn't have two 5'9/180 guys on the blueline. The interesting long-term question will be if Brannstrom will find a long-term home on the top-2 pairings when Chabot/Sanderson become the backbone of the blueline at LHD, and he's trying to play top-4 minutes as a LHD on the right side vs. Bernard-Docker, Zub, and Thomson as natural RHD. If that becomes an issue, it's not that hard to see Brannstrom potentially seeking a top-4 role elsewhere, and Mete settling in long-term on the Senators' 3rd pairing.
- khawk

I think you sign him to a one year deal if you can, let his value increase from ice time, and use him a trade bait at the deadline. Maybe a two year deal, but I’m not crying if he’s gone over the summer; easy come, easy go sometimes.

I think you sign him to a one year deal if you can, let his value increase from ice time, and use him a trade bait at the deadline. Maybe a two year deal, but I’m not crying if he’s gone over the summer; easy come, easy go sometimes.
- CooCooKaChoo

A true asset is an asset with negotiable value.

Dorion in his last media conference said the Sens will come to a point where they may have to trade some assets to balance or make the team more competitive. But, he gave no indication that he needs to do that now.

During the Sens late season run, some talking heads stepped up to say the Sens need to move prospects in order to add an elite veteran presence for next year. I don't think so.

The on ice leadership core of the Sens appears to be Chabot, Tkachuk and Connor Brown. Give them another year to help grow this team.

Dorions worth as a gm is really on now, and with 1 year left on his contract. The easiest parts are over for him. How to manage the cap now for the future. When to make the moves to go to the next level.

As a armchair gm. I would cash this years first bring in some higher end talent. This year sems ideal. The pipeline and cupboards are well stocked. The scouting this year has been minimal.

Dorions worth as a gm is really on now, and with 1 year left on his contract. The easiest parts are over for him. How to manage the cap now for the future. When to make the moves to go to the next level.
- spazzbot

I totally agree about Dorion. He has to sign Tkachuk and it won't be easy. He'll want big money, bonuses and term. Then he has to sign Batherson and because he had the same production as Tkachuk he probably won't accept a lowball offer unless he bridges him. He has to trade L. Brown because he's definitely an NHL player but he's not a Smith type player. He has to sort out the goaltending situation and make the right decisions. He has to prep for the expansion draft and who knows. We go back to regular alignment next year and if the the team is not as good as anticipated he'll have a lot of explaining to do because they need people in the stands.

I totally agree about Dorion. He has to sign Tkachuk and it won't be easy. He'll want big money, bonuses and term. Then he has to sign Batherson and because he had the same production as Tkachuk he probably won't accept a lowball offer unless he bridges him. He has to trade L. Brown because he's definitely an NHL player but he's not a Smith type player. He has to sort out the goaltending situation and make the right decisions. He has to prep for the expansion draft and who knows. We go back to regular alignment next year and if the the team is not as good as anticipated he'll have a lot of explaining to do because they need people in the stands.
- granpa

I'm still not sure I'm on board with trading Logan Brown. He's been hurt, it hasn't been a great start to his career but there is still so much potential there and he's never really been given the "Prove it" chance.

Goaltending I think is clear the Murray is here for the next few years but Gus and Joey D are the future.


Trading wise, I wonder what it would take to get someone like Brayden Schenn. He's a skilled guy, tons of grit. Still in the age range where he's a vet but not old. Can still play. But I think he would really round this group out and help take us to the next level.

I totally agree about Dorion. He has to sign Tkachuk and it won't be easy. He'll want big money, bonuses and term. Then he has to sign Batherson and because he had the same production as Tkachuk he probably won't accept a lowball offer unless he bridges him. He has to trade L. Brown because he's definitely an NHL player but he's not a Smith type player. He has to sort out the goaltending situation and make the right decisions. He has to prep for the expansion draft and who knows. We go back to regular alignment next year and if the the team is not as good as anticipated he'll have a lot of explaining to do because they need people in the stands.
- granpa

L. Brown's value is at an all-time low. Why trade him when you are probably not getting quality back? As long as he does not have an ugly contract, may as well see if he can prove everyone wrong. The time to trade him was at the 2020 draft. Moment that day passed, window was virtually closed unless he made the team and became a decent contributor, but then, why trade him? But that did not happen and he played a handful of AHL games, 1 NHL game, and has proved to have a bit of an injury bug. What team is lining up for that? Give him one last shot at the can and evaluate things one last time.

L. Brown's value is at an all-time low. Why trade him when you are probably not getting quality back? As long as he does not have an ugly contract, may as well see if he can prove everyone wrong. The time to trade him was at the 2020 draft. Moment that day passed, window was virtually closed unless he made the team and became a decent contributor, but then, why trade him? But that did not happen and he played a handful of AHL games, 1 NHL game, and has proved to have a bit of an injury bug. What team is lining up for that? Give him one last shot at the can and evaluate things one last time.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

He's an NHL player but he's not going to play in Ottawa as long as Smith is coach and he's way too good for the AHL. His options are a trade, don't sign and play in other league. After all what's a player who can't make a last place team worth. Why would Ottawa be so greedy.

As a armchair gm. I would cash this years first bring in some higher end talent. This year sems ideal. The pipeline and cupboards are well stocked. The scouting this year has been minimal.
- spazzbot

If this were the Vegas expansion draft year, I might agree - but teams have generally been pretty savvy in terms of learning from that experience. There are a handful of teams like Carolina, Nashville, and Minnesota where there could be a deal available for a solid top-4 D-man (i.e. Dumba, Ekholm, Skjei), but there's virtually no team that's at risk of losing a prominent scoring forward to Seattle, either at C or W. So I'm not sure what kind of "high-end talent" people think is available, but for me it would have to be a pretty impressive to merit giving up a top-10 draft pick when there are still holes in the lineup, especially up front.

Anyone think Nolan Patrick might be an option via trade?

He's an NHL player but he's not going to play in Ottawa as long as Smith is coach and he's way too good for the AHL. His options are a trade, don't sign and play in other league. After all what's a player who can't make a last place team worth. Why would Ottawa be so greedy.
- granpa

He probably would have played in the NHL this season more if he wasn't injured for 90% of the year. Not sure why you are assuming there is some conspiracy to keep him out of the lineup. People thought the same thing at game 1 of the year but by the time the last game of the year rolled around every prospect in question had a reasonable opportunity to play in addition to prospects we never thought we'd see at the NHL level.

L Brown didn't blow away anyone at training camp or in his handful of games in the AHL prior to getting injured. He wrote his own ticket. On the trade market, his value is shot in term of what you'd like to receive for a highly touted prospect. May as well keep him and see if he brings it next season. Best case, it works out and he is a solid centre for this team. Worst case, it doesn't work out and you can move on one way or another. How is this being greedy? This is simple asset management.

The newest additions to Belleville are really making their mark...

Crookshank - 17GP, 4G, 10A, 14Pts
Jarventie - 4GP, 2G, 1A, 3Pts
Sogaard - 6W-0L-0OTL, 2.14GAA, 0.927sv%

That's especially impressive for Sogaard... walking onto a professional team late in the season, and just killing it down the stretch. Factor in the impressive NHL starts for Pinto and Bernard-Docker, the solid rookie AHL seasons for Sokolov and Thomson, and Sanderson and Greig having great years in the NCAA/WHL, and we're starting to see another wave of potential impact players coming up through the ranks.

The newest additions to Belleville are really making their mark...

Crookshank - 17GP, 4G, 10A, 14Pts
Jarventie - 4GP, 2G, 1A, 3Pts
Sogaard - 6W-0L-0OTL, 2.14GAA, 0.927sv%

That's especially impressive for Sogaard... walking onto a professional team late in the season, and just killing it down the stretch. Factor in the impressive NHL starts for Pinto and Bernard-Docker, the solid rookie AHL seasons for Sokolov and Thomson, and Sanderson and Greig having great years in the NCAA/WHL, and we're starting to see another wave of potential impact players coming up through the ranks.
- khawk

+10AO in 2021 (hoping its not a LD,LW or Goalie)

If we remain at 10 OA in 2021 draft; PD could target Lysell (RW sniper) or Mc Tavish, big strong, skilled, gritty player as a C (his ceiling could be 1st/2nd line)...Maybe if we are lucky with the lottery, we might move down in the top 8 and then potentially B. Clarke (best RD of this draft) might be there to be snagged by PD....Let's cross our fingers!

If we remain at 10 OA in 2021 draft; PD could target Lysell (RW sniper) or Mc Tavish, big strong, skilled, gritty player as a C (his ceiling could be 1st/2nd line)...Maybe if we are lucky with the lottery, we might move down in the top 8 and then potentially B. Clarke (best RD of this draft) might be there to be snagged by PD....Let's cross our fingers!
- SensGatineau

If the Senators are really hot for Brandt Clarke and he's still on the board at #7, you could see them make a deal with San Jose, who only have 1 pick in the top-60 of the draft. Maybe something like the #10 pick and the Sharks' 2nd round pick, for the #7 pick and the Leafs' 4th round pick.

Assuming they do wind up picking at #10, I'm glad you mentioned Lysell. He's not as much of a safe pick as McTavish or Sillinger, but seems to have a major dynamic element to his game. Scouching Report did an interesting segment on him, and he's got a far more positive impression than many of the generic scouting sites. The Scouching video also quite a bit of video footage on him, and he really is a burner. Given that he's also a natural RH shot (i.e. natural RW), I'd be quite happy if they added him to the forward mix.

https://www.eliteprospect...ayer/472769/fabian-lysell
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w0BCnNyVaFo

worst thing OTT could end up doing is drafting a G, LW or LD which they have a overabundance of while not addressing a position of need.