Bill Meltzer: Draft Weekend Notes, Quotes, and Transcripts

Bill, I'm starting to warm to the trades. Loved Risto when he was killing us with his physical play. Interested to hear your takes on filling our remaining needs with UFA pool.

After the Ghost trade, I was pleasantly surprised we unloaded Jake for Atkinson straight up.

No need for apologies Bill. You know that.

No need for apologies Bill. You know that.
- Robert's Plant

I try to be as consistent as possible with posting times. My plan was to write a Saturday reaction blog early this morning before Round 2 of the Draft start but I simply woke up too late and had to prep before the remainder of the Draft started.

I try to be as consistent as possible with posting times. My plan was to write a Saturday reaction blog early this morning before Round 2 of the Draft start but I simply woke up too late and had to prep before the remainder of the Draft started.
- bmeltzer

never explain yourself

Bill, I'm starting to warm to the trades. Loved Risto when he was killing us with his physical play. Interested to hear your takes on filling our remaining needs with UFA pool.

After the Ghost trade, I was pleasantly surprised we unloaded Jake for Atkinson straight up.
- cdearth23

Money/term for money/term hockey trades are a different animal than pure salary dumps. There was enough smoke to believe there was fire to Voracek-for-Tarasenko but Armstrong has been playing games and trying to show he's in control rather than getting something done. The Atkinson deal came together quickly, on the other hand.

Fletcher transcript posted. Working on editing Flahr for spacing and italics for readability.

Flahr transcript posted.

Fletcher transcript posted. Working on editing Flahr for spacing and italics for readability.
- bmeltzer

Thanks Bill. I really liked what CF said about it not making sense to keep bringing back the same players every year and expecting a different result. Also like his focus on addressing their slow starts by bringing in high energy, enthusiastic players. I’m feeling cautiously optimistic.

Hey Bill. What is the ceiling for Jackson Cates? I watched him in college and he’s a
good skater, solid 2 way guy. Early on, the Flyers were seeing as a bottom six guy. Do they still see him that way?

Hey Bill. What is the ceiling for Jackson Cates? I watched him in college and he’s a
good skater, solid 2 way guy. Early on, the Flyers were seeing as a bottom six guy. Do they still see him that way?
- Minnyhock

4th line or depth.

Nonetheless, I was told on Friday night that seven different NHL clubs offered a first-round pick to Buffalo, which the Sabres set as a non-negotiable part of any trade discussion for Ristolainen.

It’s clear in hindsight that Buffalo held all the leverage in those negotiations and Ristolainen’s perceived reputation amongst fans wasn’t universally shared by front offices. GMs around the league see something in him and aren’t holding the poor environment he played in against him.

hextall ruined your team and will do the sameto mine

hextall ruined your team and will do the sameto mine
- penguininnevada

We can hope he does

I'll take people who should never apologize for not working enough for $200, Alex.

I'll take people who should never apologize for not working enough for $200, Alex.
- flyerscup2011

Trading Coutourier NOW makes sense. And whatever return we get can grow with the vets like Giroux, Ellis & Atkinson.

P.S. Seriously, Bill is like 99.999999% on time with everything

Even when there is NOTHING going on.

For all of my complaints, whining and rants about this team over the last few years at least I can say the actions matched the words. Also the fact that Fletcher is actually acknowledging what I have been frustrated with for so many years makes it more encouraging.

I am tired of the regular PR and sheep talk...FINALLY these are the problems we have been seeing for years, remove the bad parts that have not been working and now bring in parts to correct the areas that need the most help.

Sign a capable backup/1B goaltender and let's get to work.

Bill do you think the moves (major player moves) are done and that this is the core we can expect? I’d imagine there’s a goalie and a few depth players coming.

Bill Meltzer: Draft Weekend Notes, Quotes, and Transcripts
- bmeltzer

Thanks Bill. When looking at the picture of Anastasia and reading your caption about her older brother, I missed the little guy and saw a much older man with the white shirt, and thought to myself: gee, that's really a LOT older brother. Then I squinted.

I will take however take issue with some of your claims, especially that Risto's stats suffer because of 1. bad team and 2. elite match-ups. 3. Nature of Zone starts

Those not interested in a detailed rebuttal, my apologies. You should just skip the rest of this post.

1. A good player on a bad team will have his relative possession stats worsen because he is on a bad team.: False

The opposite has been found to be true on average, and I have found references that this correction was made by Eric Tulsky (Philly native and Assistant GM of Canes) . It is a good player on a good (deep) team who is more likely to see his relative stats suffer.

The reasoning is very simple. Suppose Hedman replaces Provorov in our last year's team and we play Tampa (minus Hedman). Hedman goes up against the Point line. Sanheim goes against Ciirelli line. Whose possession stats will tend to be better? The answer is Hedman. B/c though Sanheim is facing inferior competition, he is also an inferior player. The drop in quality from Hedman to Sanheim is larger than the drop in quality from the Point line to the Cirelli line. Thus, it is Sanheim who is at an disadvantage. (Note, for the same reason, Cirelli will have higher possession stats than Point in this example, for the same reason).

2. If Risto's fellow defenders faced the kind of elite competition he did, they would have just as horrid stats too.: False

There are sites that divide up possession stats by quality of competition. It is true that Risto tends to face better competition. Unfortunately, the problem is this: its not like he hogs all the ice time against the good players. Others defenders on the Sabres play them too, just a little less, and when they do, their stats are much better than his. I illustrate below for this year, every other year the story is pretty much the same.



This chart was taken from here.
3. Zone starts and sheltering can really change possession stats. False

Apparently, about 60% of a player's starts are "on the fly", obviously when puck is exiting or outside own zone. Of the face-offs, many are in neutral zone, which is a wash. Over the course of a game, this may mean that a guy with a 60% d-zone start is actually only taking 2-3 more faceoffs in the d-zone compared to the O-zone. That turns out to be insignificant for possession stats.

(More about this point can be found here for the interested. )

In summary then, Bill, there does not seem to be much evidence at all that Risto's advanced stats are affected by his team, quality of competition, and zone start usage.

But even if what you say is true, and Riso will be much better if he is facing lesser competition, and more offensive zone starts, I have an observation:

I keep hearing Flyers are in "win now"mode. Never understood what exactly we are aiming to "win" in the now. Surely it cannot be the cup with a top 4 defender who needs such sheltering, can it?

I try to be as consistent as possible with posting times. My plan was to write a Saturday reaction blog early this morning before Round 2 of the Draft start but I simply woke up too late and had to prep before the remainder of the Draft started.
- bmeltzer

Thanks Bill and I know your takes are impartial. As well, thanks for the balanced assessment of the RR trade. Puts it into context that many other teams offered the first to get him. Doesn’t seem like we overpaid that crazy then. It’s not like we offered that package but other teams were in the running with a 2023 4th rounder and Buffalo retaining 50 percent salary.

hextall ruined your team and will do the sameto mine
- penguininnevada

I certainly hope the second part is true.

Analytics are nothing more than a tool to measure how human beings perform. While useful, they are not the end “all be all”. Yes, it seems CF overpaid for Risto. However, the fact that many experienced and qualified hockey people (who’s livelihoods depend on their hockey decisions) highly value this player as well is telling. Chemistry, opportunity, position, usage, coaching, training, all have an impact. Perhaps some of the value in this trade is how it will impact Hart, knowing that people will pay a hefty price setting up shop on his crease now, as just one example. As the dust from this weekend settles and initial reactions (exacerbated by the excitement of the first round draft expectations), I find myself warming up to the overall picture.

Out were underachieving players with potential like NoPa and Meyers, players who lost the confidence of coaches and fans alike (see Ghost), and a core player who put up points but was seen by many fans as a guy who didn’t compete hard all the time in Jake. What was brought in are 2 RH defenseman who play a tough brand of hockey. Ellis is skill and a style bigger than his size, Risto a smooth skater who makes opponents pay a price in his zone and can add some second level offense, and Atkinson who is a skilled Swiss Army knife, can do it all well, and never takes a shift off. Yes we gave up potential in the 13th pick who is a man who’s future is purely speculative and years down the road. Certainly seems we are going to be much more fun to watch next year and harder the play against. And if these moves help our franchise goalie rebound from a horrible year, no analytics can measure the positive psychological impact there.

Thanks Bill. When looking at the picture of Anastasia and reading your caption about her older brother, I missed the little guy and saw a much older man with the white shirt, and thought to myself: gee, that's really a LOT older brother. Then I squinted.
- PT21

The much older man in the white shirt is longtime Flyers defenseman Brad Marsh, who is nowadays the president of the Flyers Alumni Association.

Regarding Ristolainen, I am tossing out the whole 2020-21 season for him. He was off to a good start then had one of the most severe cases of Covid in the NHL: intense chest pains, shortness of breath, and a complete lack of energy. He eventually got back in the Sabres lineup but said yesterday that he didn't feel like himself the rest of the season. He's finally fully recovered.

Lastly, analytics aren't everything. Talk to the game's high-skill top of the lineup types. Most of them want a few couple, physical types in the lineup whether they play on the same line or not. Not talking about enforcers because that role is obsolete nowadays. Talking about guys who opponents detest playing against because they rough you up all night then taunt you.

Ristolainen is one of those. He is so damn big and strong. He is a good skater on top of it. Phil Myers has all those same tools but he isn't particularly mean. Ristolainen loves to hit to hurt, which isn't the same thing as hitting to injure. Ristolainen is also a good -- not great, but good-- offensive D although not a puck mover. These are not my descriptions. It comes from scouts and players.

There was a game early last season where Ristolainen physically beat the crap out of several Flyers players. He was also in their faces all night. One player commented off the record that he'd hate to play against Ristolainen in a playoff series.

So much in hockey success is all about the mix of players, and balancing off strengths and compensating for weaknesses. I suspect that a Sanheim/ Ristolainen pairing will make its share of mistakes. I also think the way Sanheim prolongs possessions up ice with the way he pinches, the aggressive physicality of Ristolainen and he fact that he is a better offensive zone threat than Myers (it takes Phil too long to release the puck at the NHL level) will help. So much about possession stats is about defensive gaps and neutral zone play.

There is also a lot that is subjective. You can have negative possession stats yet still have a positive night by other measures. Let's say, in 28 shifts, there are several where the team gets hemmed in with Ristolainen on the ice. He ends the night in the red possession wise. But he also got an assist off a rebound put-in of his shot, four credited hits (and a couple more uncredited ones that actually hurt more than the ones that made a big noise) and three blocks including one that erased a prime scoring chance.

I can guarantee you that Ristolainen will be happy with his night assuming the team won. His head coach will be happy with his night. His defensive coach will be pretty happy. But the segment of watchers who hyperfocus endlessly on the possessions stats will say the team won despite him.

Thanks Bill. When looking at the picture of Anastasia and reading your caption about her older brother, I missed the little guy and saw a much older man with the white shirt, and thought to myself: gee, that's really a LOT older brother. Then I squinted.

I will take however take issue with some of your claims, especially that Risto's stats suffer because of 1. bad team and 2. elite match-ups. 3. Nature of Zone starts

Those not interested in a detailed rebuttal, my apologies. You should just skip the rest of this post.

1. A good player on a bad team will have his relative possession stats worsen because he is on a bad team.: False

The opposite has been found to be true on average, and I have found references that this correction was made by Eric Tulsky (Philly native and Assistant GM of Canes) . It is a good player on a good (deep) team who is more likely to see his relative stats suffer.

The reasoning is very simple. Suppose Hedman replaces Provorov in our last year's team and we play Tampa (minus Hedman). Hedman goes up against the Point line. Sanheim goes against Ciirelli line. Whose possession stats will tend to be better? The answer is Hedman. B/c though Sanheim is facing inferior competition, he is also an inferior player. The drop in quality from Hedman to Sanheim is larger than the drop in quality from the Point line to the Cirelli line. Thus, it is Sanheim who is at an disadvantage. (Note, for the same reason, Cirelli will have higher possession stats than Point in this example, for the same reason).

2. If Risto's fellow defenders faced the kind of elite competition he did, they would have just as horrid stats too.: False

There are sites that divide up possession stats by quality of competition. It is true that Risto tends to face better competition. Unfortunately, the problem is this: its not like he hogs all the ice time against the good players. Others defenders on the Sabres play them too, just a little less, and when they do, their stats are much better than his. I illustrate below for this year, every other year the story is pretty much the same.



This chart was taken from here.
3. Zone starts and sheltering can really change possession stats. False

Apparently, about 60% of a player's starts are "on the fly", obviously when puck is exiting or outside own zone. Of the face-offs, many are in neutral zone, which is a wash. Over the course of a game, this may mean that a guy with a 60% d-zone start is actually only taking 2-3 more faceoffs in the d-zone compared to the O-zone. That turns out to be insignificant for possession stats.

(More about this point can be found here for the interested. )

In summary then, Bill, there does not seem to be much evidence at all that Risto's advanced stats are affected by his team, quality of competition, and zone start usage.

But even if what you say is true, and Riso will be much better if he is facing lesser competition, and more offensive zone starts, I have an observation:

I keep hearing Flyers are in "win now"mode. Never understood what exactly we are aiming to "win" in the now. Surely it cannot be the cup with a top 4 defender who needs such sheltering, can it?
- PT21

As I mentioned yesterday to you, hockey people use analytics as a tool, a valuable tool, but none the less only a tool. 80-90 % of the game is between the ears. When a player is rushed into a situation he’s not ready for tat is going to affect him and his play(hell, I think that was part of Patrick’s issue). When an organization is that un stable it is going to effect young players, how many coach’s, regimes has Risto had to endure ?
The fact that it was stated up to “7” teams offered at least a 1rst for the player should tell you what a very large amount of hockey people think of the player. As Bill mentioned it matters wher a player is slated. Risto was the top guy…he probably was and never should have been. Using a guy in the wrong area’s, putting him in a position were he’s destined to fail is going to effect his play.
As to where the the Flyers are today….as Fletch said, they are a better hockey team. No trade was going to make them a top contender….but they are hell of a lot closer then a week ago and I have a suspicion Fletch is going to continue the reformation in the coming days….thank god.

Analytics are nothing more than a tool to measure how human beings perform. While useful, they are not the end “all be all”. Yes, it seems CF overpaid for Risto. However, the fact that many experienced and qualified hockey people (who’s livelihoods depend on their hockey decisions) highly value this player as well is telling. Chemistry, opportunity, position, usage, coaching, training, all have an impact. Perhaps some of the value in this trade is how it will impact Hart, knowing that people will pay a hefty price setting up shop on his crease now, as just one example. As the dust from this weekend settles and initial reactions (exacerbated by the excitement of the first round draft expectations), I find myself warming up to the overall picture.

Out were underachieving players with potential like NoPa and Meyers, players who lost the confidence of coaches and fans alike (see Ghost), and a core player who put up points but was seen by many fans as a guy who didn’t compete hard all the time in Jake. What was brought in are 2 RH defenseman who play a tough brand of hockey. Ellis is skill and a style bigger than his size, Risto a smooth skater who makes opponents pay a price in his zone and can add some second level offense, and Atkinson who is a skilled Swiss Army knife, can do it all well, and never takes a shift off. Yes we gave up potential in the 13th pick who is a man who’s future is purely speculative and years down the road. Certainly seems we are going to be much more fun to watch next year and harder the play against. And if these moves help our franchise goalie rebound from a horrible year, no analytics can measure the positive psychological impact there.
- mikeyo27

Good points all especially regarding analytics. They are useful by you can’t use them solely to make team decisions.

The fact that bill advises the going price was a first means that we didn’t crazy overpay especially in a weak draft that couldn’t properly be scouted.

Further as you state, people in the game apparently see rr as still having value on a second pair. Well see. At the end of the day, we have to see how the individual slots in and whether or not he can be coached to improve. A lot of times in hockey, if your confidence is shot which I expect happened to everyone in Buf, you try too hard too overcompensate and make bad decisions. Hopefully he can be coached and supported to improvement. Lest we forget how god awful bad Buffalo has been over the years. That losing culture has had an effect on the players there I am certain. I mean even eichel s value has decreased but teams are still interested. Hockey people can still see his value in the right environment