Mike Augello: Being undone by goalie and defensive inconsistency; Leafs vs. Blue Jackets

Mike Augello: Being undone by goalie and defensive inconsistency; Leafs vs. Blue Jackets
- mikeinbuffalo

https://twitter.com/FAN59...?cxt=HHwWgoCzzfvFh9QpAAAA

I think Frank is right...Just am not sure if Dubas thinks the same.

for me, it was pretty simple.. Demko came up big when needed, and Campbell didn't.. The Leafs put in a great effort but were outgoalied...

From the last blog. Someone may find it interesting, or provide different context in how you evaluate this type of thing.

Has Campbell been over-coached? (is Steve Briere poison?)

- mjones242

Just to zero in on this question - because I'm sure a lot of us wonder what's going on with the Leafs' goalie coach. My only familiarity with him was watching Keefe cuss him out in last year's Amazon special, "Nothing", about them losing again; there was no 'All' so we can just cut to the chase.

I started looking at goalies year-by-year to see if they were better or worse with the new goalie coach, but that's a difficult metric because personnel and coaching changes. NHL goalies are inherently good, but is there any objective metric that would indicate if the goalie coach was having a positive impact? The only thing I could think of that was a possible indicator was the team's GSAA which measures expected goals against compared to actual goals against based on the quality of shots and the conditions under which they are faced.

2014/15: -12.5 (xGA: 29th; GA: 27th) <-- Before Briere; Carlyle/Horachek coaching

15/16: -25.05 (xGA: 14th; GA: 24th) <-- Briere hired; Babcock coaching
16/17: -2.83 (xGA: 25th; GA: 22nd)
17/18: 14.95 (xGA: 25th; GA: 12th)
18/19: -13.74 (xGA: 22nd; GA: 20th)
19/20: -26.49 (xGA: 16th; GA: 26th) <-- Babcock replaced by Keefe after 23 games
20/21: -11.68 (xGA: 6th; GA: 8th)
21/22: -16.16 (xGA: 5th; GA: 17th)

Looking more closely at 2019/20 as well, you can see that coaching does have a direct impact:

Babcock: -10.39 (xGA: 24th; GA: 24th)
Keefe: -16.1 (xGA: 9th; GA: 17th)


If we can accept that while xGA isn't a perfect metric, it is a solid comparative tool to look at how well a team plays in all situations. I am on record as believing that not all HD shots are equal and some MD shots are worse than MD shots because guys just get too much space. The Leafs are definitely guilty of poor gap control which likely reflects in a higher xGA than we see. Ultimately, however, this team is playing a style that is conducive to a much better goals against average and save percentage than they are getting. If it's the personnel, then make a move. If it's not the personnel, then it's the goalie coach - and in all but one year, the expected goals against are always less than the actual goals against.

Adding a damn good D-man improves the D and goaltending.

Adding a damn good D-man improves the D and goaltending.
- GreatGigInTheSky

Can I get a backcheck brother?

Can I get a backcheck brother?
- AdamFrench

Let's just blame Nick Robertson, because he's not as good as his brother

Let's just blame Nick Robertson, because he's not as good as his brother
- PatC80

Man...what a (frank)ing steal that Jason kid is. Good thing he was 5'10 in his draft year and now is 6'3 somehow. Yeesh.

Glad he will hold out and sign for cheap to play with his bro.

for me, it was pretty simple.. Demko came up big when needed, and Campbell didn't.. The Leafs put in a great effort but were outgoalied...
- PatC80

Leafs were ahead 4-3 starting the third. Shots were 11-3 (in favour of the Leafs) in the first 10 minutes of the third and the score was 5-4 for the Nucks. It wasn't just awful goaltending it was also timing. Leafs worked their balls off in the 2nd to get the lead. Then Cambell was grasping for his throat at the start of the third. Please don't tell me it was defense. The save % of .821 for that game sucks ass big time.

Adding a damn good D-man improves the D and goaltending.
- GreatGigInTheSky

Technically yes.

But JC and Mrazek combined have been the worst goalies since December, that says a lot. Leafs have good underlying numbers on D as well...which at the very least shows that we need to point some fingers at goaltending here and ask ourselves if there needs to be an upgrade.

https://twitter.com/FAN590/status/1500841170984919041?cxt=HHwWgoCzzfvFh9QpAAAA

I think Frank is right...Just am not sure if Dubas thinks the same.
- Santo_44

It's time someone in the NHL finally tries putting a sumo wrestler in net.

It's time someone in the NHL finally tries putting a sumo wrestler in net.
- Atomic Wedgie

Maybe a super hero called Velcro Man that doesn't give up Grade AAA juicy rebounds.

Can I get a backcheck brother?
- AdamFrench

Nah. poop's tiring.

Technically yes.

But JC and Mrazek combined have been the worst goalies since December, that says a lot. Leafs have good underlying numbers on D as well...which at the very least shows that we need to point some fingers at goaltending here and ask ourselves if there needs to be an upgrade.
- Santo_44

So if/when Campbell gets his head straightened out, the addition of a damn good D-man will look even better.

So if/when Campbell gets his head straightened out, the addition of a damn good D-man will look even better.
- GreatGigInTheSky

Big if.

It's time someone in the NHL finally tries putting a sumo wrestler in net.
- Atomic Wedgie

There has to be a human being out there that could fill the net, is that illegal?

So if/when Campbell gets his head straightened out, the addition of a damn good D-man will look even better.
- GreatGigInTheSky

Agree

BTW - back leading the Gilmour division in the HB pool. 2nd overall in the League.

Can I get a backcheck brother?
- AdamFrench

JT Miller can backcheck.

Begin year - very little traffic/deflections

Now - lots of traffic/deflections


As bad as Muzz has been this year, they miss him greatly.

GLG

So if/when Campbell gets his head straightened out, the addition of a damn good D-man will look even better.
- GreatGigInTheSky

Trumps out of office. Can they re-hire that goalie coach who he personally credits turning him around mentally again?

Begin year - very little traffic/deflections

Now - lots of traffic/deflections


As bad as Muzz has been this year, they miss him greatly.

GLG
- Garnie

Campbell allowed 5 goals on 28 shots. Maybe if the Leafs improved their defense and only allowed 15 shots per game we could get the goals against under 3

Trumps out of office. Can they re-hire that goalie coach who he personally credits turning him around mentally again?
- AdamFrench

Red Kelly and pyramid power are not available.

Begin year - very little traffic/deflections

Now - lots of traffic/deflections


As bad as Muzz has been this year, they miss him greatly.

GLG
- Garnie

JC doesn't seem to be in near as a good a position for those deflections, as he was early in the year. He and the other fella have sucked positionally. Just my observation. I know his stats suck too, no need to look at those.

Big if.
- Santo_44

I'd say a medium sized if.