Kevin Francis: April fools gold for Sens fans again?!

The roster should look markedly different next year, so here's hoping a solid offseason can yield results. If this team doesn't start out .500 by November, however, I hope they start looking at the office to make changes.

Ottawa hasn't won four games in a row since 2017 and they have the chance to do that on Tuesday night against a banged up and young Devils team

Wow. I didn't realize it has been THAT long! What a crappy 5 years lol

Ottawa hasn't won four games in a row since 2017 and they have the chance to do that on Tuesday night against a banged up and young Devils team

Wow. I didn't realize it has been THAT long! What a crappy 5 years lol
- AlfieisKing

I know I've seen this posted on here a few times but Dorion has missed the playoffs 5 straight years and I think it was Kevin that said only 7 GM"s in the history of the NHL have survived that. So lucky us in Ottawa we get to have GM number 8 now. I bet there is nobody left on that list after 6 straight years of missing the playoffs?

The roster should look markedly different next year, so here's hoping a solid offseason can yield results. If this team doesn't start out .500 by November, however, I hope they start looking at the office to make changes.
- Bartacus

Dorion said that last year too, this won't happen again and the next year at the deadline we won't be sellers or out of the playoffs. Well it happened again. If new ownership is in place by the summer then maybe we could see a change both at head coach and GM. We can only hope or wish. There were only 7 games in October this year, I think they start the season earlier this coming fall due to no covid stuff extending the season until late summer. Look at Vancouver and Winnipeg, they waited too long for the coaching change. Even though Maurice stepped down, I think he was asked too. Plus Edmonton almost waited too long as well for their coaching change.

I wanted to follow up the blog that Kevin posted about the wear and tear on the Sens players, as Connor Brown is now out for the rest of the season. DJ said he was playing through injuries and worn down. I had a buddy tell me remember last year, Colin White was the same way, playing hurt/banged up, he said after the season how is upper body has issues going on as to why he was missing games down the stretch from the wear and tear. Too many of these players are leading with shoulders trying to blow up players on the ice to the coaches liking. His style of play truly has to stop next year. The other night, Stutzle was trying to do it, leading with shoulder and on any chance he had finish his check, etc. Fans will only take notice when the team loses a star player from DJ's stupidity.

Ottawa hasn't won four games in a row since 2017 and they have the chance to do that on Tuesday night against a banged up and young Devils team

Wow. I didn't realize it has been THAT long! What a crappy 5 years lol
- AlfieisKing

I did a search on a website I use to cap games in all sports. Ottawa is the only NHL team the last few five seasons that hasn’t won 4 games in a row, that’s until expansion Seattle came into the league this year and they have even won 3 in row.

I wanted to follow up the blog that Kevin posted about the wear and tear on the Sens players, as Connor Brown is now out for the rest of the season. DJ said he was playing through injuries and worn down. I had a buddy tell me remember last year, Colin White was the same way, playing hurt/banged up, he said after the season how is upper body has issues going on as to why he was missing games down the stretch from the wear and tear. Too many of these players are leading with shoulders trying to blow up players on the ice to the coaches liking. His style of play truly has to stop next year. The other night, Stutzle was trying to do it, leading with shoulder and on any chance he had finish his check, etc. Fans will only take notice when the team loses a star player from DJ's stupidity.
- LawyerSens4Life

Great subject, I wonder if consideration needs to be given to the vulnerability of a young players bone structure early in their NHL career. Hitting is part of the game and successful teams tend to hit (rather than be hit). The team’s with the least hits tend to come from the bottom feeders in the standings. But, this group tend to include most of the younger teams following a developmental cycle (bottom 3 in hits are Buffalo, NJ Devils and Detroit).

But two really dominant indicators jump out when looking at the numbers.

First, it appears that Eastern teams do more hitting than Western teams. Except for Nashville, the teams with the most hits are Eastern Conference teams.

Second, except for Ottawa, those teams that lead the East in hits appear to include some of the teams that you might expect to have some playoff success this year. The Eastern teams with the most hits are:

Ottawa
Boston
Tampa Bay
New York Rangers
Washington
Florida Panthers

statmuse

The roster should look markedly different next year, so here's hoping a solid offseason can yield results. If this team doesn't start out .500 by November, however, I hope they start looking at the office to make changes.
- Bartacus

Will it, though? Beyond Chabot/Zub, Hamhuis, Zaitsev, Holden, and Del Zotto are already signed for next year, and I'm not sure Dorion's ego can handle a Brannstrom trade. At forward, Tkachuk, Norris, Batherson, Stutzle, Brown, Formenton, White, Joseph, and Watson are already lined up... which is the entire top-6, plus most of the 3rd line. A healthy Pinto would be nice, but he may be the only significant young forward addition. Meanwhile, the actual job of goaltending will continue to revolve around Forsberg & Gustavsson, despite the $hit-show of whatever's going on with Murray.

Unfortunately, I think moves like Joseph/Hamhuis plus the Forsberg extension account for most of what Dorion was looking to do in the off-season (i.e. we're already seeing it). I'd love to think Giroux is in the cards, but I'm not quite that naive. Sanderson is the wild card, and may well have a substantial impact... but only if they can navigate him through the veteran clutter on the blue line, which is something they've done a conspicuously bad job at with other 1st-round quality D-men.

Positives heading into next season:
Jake Sanderson
Josh Brown replaced by Hamonic
Stutzle spends whole season at center
Shane Pinto back in lineup as third line center
Mark Kastelic is the fourth line center
Anton Forsberg is the number one goalie heading into the season
removal of low impact forwards - Tierney, Gambrell

Wish list:
Lassi Thomson replaces Zaitsev who is moved
DJ Smith is replaced
addition of top 6 RW

Will it, though? Beyond Chabot/Zub, Hamhuis, Zaitsev, Holden, and Del Zotto are already signed for next year, and I'm not sure Dorion's ego can handle a Brannstrom trade. At forward, Tkachuk, Norris, Batherson, Stutzle, Brown, Formenton, White, Joseph, and Watson are already lined up... which is the entire top-6, plus most of the 3rd line. A healthy Pinto would be nice, but he may be the only significant young forward addition. Meanwhile, the actual job of goaltending will continue to revolve around Forsberg & Gustavsson, despite the $hit-show of whatever's going on with Murray.

Unfortunately, I think moves like Joseph/Hamhuis plus the Forsberg extension account for most of what Dorion was looking to do in the off-season (i.e. we're already seeing it). I'd love to think Giroux is in the cards, but I'm not quite that naive. Sanderson is the wild card, and may well have a substantial impact... but only if they can navigate him through the veteran clutter on the blue line, which is something they've done a conspicuously bad job at with other 1st-round quality D-men.
- khawk

I think you're absolutely right. The D will be Chabot, Hamonic, Zaitsev, MDZ, Zub, Holden and Brannstrom. Sanderson will get a look for a couple of games and so might Thomson but both of them will be in Belleville next year. I also don't see much happening up front other than Pinto playing. The remaining spots will go to Gaudette, Gambrell, Kelly, Joseph and Kastelic or some such.

The situation is complicated by the ownership issue I think. Is Dorion free to make major deals? A little voice inside me says I hope not!

I don't think signing Formenton will be a problem.

The biggest piece of business will be signing Norris and I truly hope they don't give him number 1 C money because he's not a number 1 C and if they pay him like one then they'll have to play him as a number 1 C alongside his buddy who is not a number 1 LW but has to be played there because he's paid like a number 1 LW. If Norris holds out for that kind of money and won't accept a bridge deal I would trade him rather than have him and his number 2 LW buddy block the team from ever having a true number 1 line. Plus if you give Norris number 1 C money what do you give Stutzle who is looking like he will be an actual number 1 C; or do you get rid of Stutzle because he doesn't want to play for number 2 C money?

Don't buy out Murray. Put him on waivers and send him to Belleville for a couple of years so you're not stuck with dead cap space money when you need it for actual players.

Maybe when the end of November rolls around we finally get rid of Smith; or else we keep him and go for Connor Bedard.

Fools gold indeed.

Hopefully the three teams ahead of Ottawa don't falter. Maybe Ottawa can win a game or two and not pass them at the same time.

As a side note, it looks like Belleville clinched?

The biggest piece of business will be signing Norris and I truly hope they don't give him number 1 C money because he's not a number 1 C and if they pay him like one then they'll have to play him as a number 1 C alongside his buddy who is not a number 1 LW but has to be played there because he's paid like a number 1 LW.
- Whatisavailable

Your assessment of Tkachuk is a bit harsh... he's not a top-10 LW in the NHL by any stretch, but he's currently 19th in the league in points by a LW, and is 1 of just 5 players in that top-20 to be playing on a non-playoff team. Among LW this year he's also 19th in goals, 27th in points/GP, and 25th in PP points... to go along with being 2nd in hits, and 3rd in PIM. Plus, if you're talking about Stutzle as a potential #1C, then there's nobody even close to being better on the team in the #1LW spot.

As for Norris, it's a bit harder to assess... he's currently 11th in goals among C, but 35th in points/GP (i.e. #1C goal-scoring, but #2C play-making). However, that goal scoring is really at a high-level, with only McDavid, Draisaitl, Barkov, Matthews, and Duchene having more goals/GP this year. I'm still predicting they'll give Norris something like a $7Mx7yr deal, which I don't think is crippling. I wouldn't have an issue with a bridge deal, if they want him to prove that a 40G pace is a reliable output from him, but I think long-term extensions for the core players is a priority for Dorion.

The fact that they've established a team cap of $8M/yr means they can build up a core of at least 5 players, and right now that could reasonably include Tkachuk, Chabot, Norris, and Stutzle. They got Batherson on a friendlier deal, and it's possible that Sanderson might eventually show that kind of upside... but otherwise, that's their core, and there's nothing else of that quality coming down the pipe. So I don't really see the point of playing games with re-signing one of the few quality players on the roster.

Your assessment of Tkachuk is a bit harsh... he's not a top-10 LW in the NHL by any stretch, but he's currently 19th in the league in points by a LW, and is 1 of just 5 players in that top-20 to be playing on a non-playoff team. Among LW this year he's also 19th in goals, 27th in points/GP, and 25th in PP points... to go along with being 2nd in hits, and 3rd in PIM. Plus, if you're talking about Stutzle as a potential #1C, then there's nobody even close to being better on the team in the #1LW spot.

As for Norris, it's a bit harder to assess... he's currently 11th in goals among C, but 35th in points/GP (i.e. #1C goal-scoring, but #2C play-making). However, that goal scoring is really at a high-level, with only McDavid, Draisaitl, Barkov, Matthews, and Duchene having more goals/GP this year. I'm still predicting they'll give Norris something like a $7Mx7yr deal, which I don't think is crippling. I wouldn't have an issue with a bridge deal, if they want him to prove that a 40G pace is a reliable output from him, but I think long-term extensions for the core players is a priority for Dorion.

The fact that they've established a team cap of $8M/yr means they can build up a core of at least 5 players, and right now that could reasonably include Tkachuk, Chabot, Norris, and Stutzle. They got Batherson on a friendlier deal, and it's possible that Sanderson might eventually show that kind of upside... but otherwise, that's their core, and there's nothing else of that quality coming down the pipe. So I don't really see the point of playing games with re-signing one of the few quality players on the roster.
- khawk

You're right it is harsh but if you want this team to win a few Cups in the next 10 years you can not be overpaying anybody. I could only find this from three years ago but because the cap hasn't gone up I think it's a pretty good guide. I know some numbers have changed a bit because of foolish signings (eg: Darnell Nurse is not worth 9.25 million) but I'm just trying to keep things in perspective if you want a well balanced, Cup winning team.

Player salaries at each position if players played to their cap hit.
I was curious to see how the UFA and RFA signings would line up with current salaries and how much an average player at each position should make. Below are the average, high and low salaries from 3 years ago if the players had played to the level of their cap hit. (eg the 32nd highest paid center made $5,850,000, the 62nd highest paid center made $4,100,000. The average for a 2nd line center was $5,031,647.)

AVG High Low
1C $7,604,838.71 $12,500,000.00 $5,900,000.00

2C $5,031,647.06 $5,850,000 $4,100,000

3C $3,174,928.26 $4,000,000 $1,800,000

4C $1,149,865.58 $1,800,000 $925,000

.

1LW $6,118,495.23 $9,538,462 $4,700,000

2LW $3,318,548.35 $4,625,000 $2,300,000

3LW $1,433,682.81 $2,275,000 $925,000

4LW $909,244.55 $925,000 $874,125

.

1RW $6,255,600.32 $10,500,000 $4,850,000

2RW $3,416,989.26 $4,766,667 $1,850,000

3RW $1,001,612.90 $1,850,000 $925,000

4RW $861,800.94 $925,000 $800,000.00

.

1D $6,630,695.68 $9,000,000 $5,500,000

2D $5,140,432.13 $5,500,000 $4,650,400

3D $4,213,182.74 $4,625,000 $3,875,000

4D $2,920,134.39 $3,857,143 $2,500,000

5D $1,815,318 $2,500,000 $1,300,000

6D $953,225.81 $1,300,000 $925,000

So Colin White makes just the right amount of money for a 3 C.
Perfect.
I look forward to him being on the team next year, finally surrounded by decent players and used in the correct way by a coach who understands hockey.

You're right it is harsh but if you want this team to win a few Cups in the next 10 years you can not be overpaying anybody. I could only find this from three years ago but because the cap hasn't gone up I think it's a pretty good guide. I know some numbers have changed a bit because of foolish signings (eg: Darnell Nurse is not worth 9.25 million) but I'm just trying to keep things in perspective if you want a well balanced, Cup winning team.
- Whatisavailable

Well, you're 100% right that you need to strike a cap balance on your team... that's a very interesting reference you provided in terms of relative salaries. It also speaks to the value of not overpaying your depth talent, and having young players on your roster who are producing beyond their AAV. In fact, once any player is making full market value, they're objectively no longer a net-benefit to the team in terms of cost-effectiveness (e.g. Tkachuk, Chabot). Now, they still provide good value in terms of talent stability, leadership, and team identity... just not from a strict $$$/performance basis. This is where a strong argument can be made for bridge deals, once a team locks down their core high-end talent.

That core really is just the foundation, though... good teams have a high-quality core, wrapped around a strong supporting cast, sustained over multiple years by a replenishing talent pool. This is why the Senators can't afford to lose their focus at the draft, and need to keep aggressively adding high-end talent. Inevitably, they'll have to trade away at least some of their mid-high level talent when they become too expensive (e.g. Zub, Brown, Formenton, White, Brannstrom, Pinto, Thomson, etc.), and you need to have the next generation of talent in the development pipeline, ready to pick up the slack and keep the team's competitive window open for as long as possible.

Hitting is always a weird stat. It's cool that your team can play that way... but you only hit when you don't have the puck. Is there a way to see hits received and hits taken? Kind of like goals differential?

Hope the Sens win their last 3 games

Hope the Sens win their last 3 games
- dcz28

It would change your draft lottery odds by less than 2%.

It would change your draft lottery odds by less than 2%.
- PuckPix

I don't care about draft lottery odds since the Wings won't win the lottery no matter what their odds would be. So the lower they finish the better it is for them since they are more likely to lose a spot or two from teams behind them winning the lottery.

Hitting is always a weird stat. It's cool that your team can play that way... but you only hit when you don't have the puck. Is there a way to see hits received and hits taken? Kind of like goals differential?
- PogBoi

Great point by you. Forsberg started more game in the 2nd half of the season, on the telecast tonight they said he leads the league in 40 + save games with 9. That can't happen next year or they will be nowhere near the playoffs. Mike Johnson said it best during the second period, you don't have 10 games to feel it out next year to start the season. He said you have to be ready from Game 1 to earn as many points as possible or they will find themselves on the outside looking in again.

So Colin White makes just the right amount of money for a 3 C.
Perfect.
I look forward to him being on the team next year, finally surrounded by decent players and used in the correct way by a coach who understands hockey.
- Octavarium

You listen to DJ at his availability and he never has anything good to say about White, nor does Dorion. I just don't see him here next year due to the hate those 2 have for him.

I don't care about draft lottery odds since the Wings won't win the lottery no matter what their odds would be. So the lower they finish the better it is for them since they are more likely to lose a spot or two from teams behind them winning the lottery.
- dcz28

I flipped over to the Sens game as I thought they were in control up 3-1. Now 4-4. Look at the Devils roster tonight, omg it's awful, full of rookies and they dressed 7 dmen too. Listening to people say how this team is going to make the playoffs next year, hard to figure when you watch this mess tonight.

I flipped over to the Sens game as I thought they were in control up 3-1. Now 4-4. Look at the Devils roster tonight, omg it's awful, full of rookies and they dressed 7 dmen too. Listening to people say how this team is going to make the playoffs next year, hard to figure when you watch this mess tonight.
- PuckPix

This D is awful. They gave up 41 shots to NJ, like someone said on here, NJ is a bottom 5 in the league. Look at the line up they iced tonight? No Jack Hughes or Nike H. It's filled with rookies. They blow a 4-2 lead to this garbage team. Oh ya, Ottawa is going to contend for the playoffs next year.