Sam Woo: Learning From The Avalanche’s Blueprint

It's a beautiful day.

The Avs did it right. People forget it took them 13 years to win a cup during their rebuild from 2009.

While I appreciate the article, I don’t think you can use someone else’s blueprint. Teams get built differently for a lot of reasons.

Sakic probably took Makar 4th since he was the #1 ranked defender; but he was ranked 9th overall pre-draft. So it could be that Joe just got lucky because he already has good offensive prospects. Talking Nico was the right pick if you don’t have a Crystal Ball.

Which isn’t too say Sakic doesn’t deserve a lot of credit for building a great team. Just that it seems unrealistic to think we should have taken him.

While I appreciate the article, I don’t think you can use someone else’s blueprint. Teams get built differently for a lot of reasons.

Sakic probably took Makar 4th since he was the #1 ranked defender; but he was ranked 9th overall pre-draft. So it could be that Joe just got lucky because he already has good offensive prospects. Talking Nico was the right pick if you don’t have a Crystal Ball.

Which isn’t too say Sakic doesn’t deserve a lot of credit for building a great team. Just that it seems unrealistic to think we should have taken him.
- Queenie_5_hole

Yup exactly, the revisionist/hindsight bs on this draft over the past few days is crazy lol. Heck, Makar wasnt even their top choice at D! Theres arcticles out form that draft that Sakic wanted Heiskanen and was upset that he got taken. Also, one of their own scouts came out very recently and essentially said they wouldnt have taken Makar if they didnt fall in that lottery.

Sakic has done a fantastic job though either way, and their analytics team is one of the best out there when it comes to finding these "hidden gems" or breakout candidates for cheap like Bura/Val

While I appreciate the article, I don’t think you can use someone else’s blueprint. Teams get built differently for a lot of reasons.

Sakic probably took Makar 4th since he was the #1 ranked defender; but he was ranked 9th overall pre-draft. So it could be that Joe just got lucky because he already has good offensive prospects. Talking Nico was the right pick if you don’t have a Crystal Ball.

Which isn’t too say Sakic doesn’t deserve a lot of credit for building a great team. Just that it seems unrealistic to think we should have taken him.
- Queenie_5_hole

It's hindsight bias in full force. That draft year everybody said Nico or Nolan and ultimately we took the right guy because Patrick might not play in the NHL again. One of the big strengths of our team moving forward is the center depth we've put together and we shouldn't be upset by that.

The easy thing is to complain about your draft picks but this is why taking best player available is the best strategy. Sakic should be more lauded for getting guys like Burakovsky and Nichushkin who people saw as not living up to their potential whose draft teams gave up on them. Now they are considered some of the best contributors to their teams during their cup win.

And I think Fitz is doing similar work as Sakic in finding diamonds in the rough that don't cost the team much to acquire. That's really been Colorado's team building strategy which is keep your good homegrown talent and find players that are better than what the score sheet says they are.

It's hindsight bias in full force. That draft year everybody said Nico or Nolan and ultimately we took the right guy because Patrick might not play in the NHL again. One of the big strengths of our team moving forward is the center depth we've put together and we shouldn't be upset by that.

The easy thing is to complain about your draft picks but this is why taking best player available is the best strategy. Sakic should be more lauded for getting guys like Burakovsky and Nichushkin who people saw as not living up to their potential whose draft teams gave up on them. Now they are considered some of the best contributors to their teams during their cup win.

And I think Fitz is doing similar work as Sakic in finding diamonds in the rough that don't cost the team much to acquire. That's really been Colorado's team building strategy which is keep your good homegrown talent and find players that are better than what the score sheet says they are.
- Pomegrant

💯💯

Bob McKenzie released his final draft rankings; the top 6 are:

1) Slafkovsky(#1 from 5 out of 10 scouts)
2) Wright(#1 from 4 out of 10 scouts)
3) Cooley(#1 from 1 out of 10 scouts)
4) Nemec
5) Gauthier
6) Jiricek

Thanks for the article Sam.

I believe the Colorado blueprint can be used to a point, but obviously getting "stuck" with Makar was a huge break for them. They showed that it can work with a very good defense in front of a pretty good but not great goalie. The question is, how good is the Devils defense, and how good could they be? Ty Smith is obviously the low man on D, but probably worth next to nothing on the trade market. Also, with Luke in the pipeline Smith doesn't have a real spot in the lineup. Replacing him with a solid defensive D man who can get the puck to the forwards would make a big difference. If one of Bahl/Okhotyuk/Shak or a surprise from one of the other minor leaguers can earn that spot and/or PK's spot that would go a long way towards improving the overall team defense.

Of course a lot depends on the development of the kids, particularly Holtz and the #2 pick.

I forgot to mention...We need a G as well.

Bob McKenzie released his final draft rankings; the top 6 are:

1) Slafkovsky
2) Wright
3) Cooley
4) Nemec
5) Gauthier
6) Jiricek
- vlongo4419

If Montreal takes Slaf will NJD take Wright or someone else, or trade the pick? I still think they take Wright and NJD takes Slaf.

If Montreal takes Slaf will NJD take Wright or someone else, or trade the pick? I still think they take Wright and NJD takes Slaf.
- gmarz16

I agree, I think that's how it goes down too. But if Montreal actually does pass on Wright then I think Fitz runs to stage as fast as possible to pick him lol. Bob's rankings are usually spot on when it comes to the order players are taken too, so having Slaf over Wright is not insignificant here.

I agree, I think that's how it goes down too. But if Montreal actually does pass on Wright then I think Fitz runs to stage as fast as possible to pick him lol. Bob's rankings are usually spot on when it comes to the order players are taken too, so having Slaf over Wright is not insignificant here.
- vlongo4419

If it wasn't for Montreal absolutely need a C I think they go Slaf. Their need will help the Devils. (Fingers crossed.)

If it wasn't for Montreal absolutely need a C I think they go Slaf. Their need will help the Devils. (Fingers crossed.)
- gmarz16

We shall see! Wright should absolutely be their pick, but this should atleast add a little suspense leading up to their pick! Lol

I agree, I think that's how it goes down too. But if Montreal actually does pass on Wright then I think Fitz runs to stage as fast as possible to pick him lol. Bob's rankings are usually spot on when it comes to the order players are taken too, so having Slaf over Wright is not insignificant here.
- vlongo4419

So a couple of questions

Why slaf over Cooley? I know position is different

I see nemec is the highest rated Dman, is there any chance we draft him at 2 or would you trade down to 4 or 5

Bob McKenzie says it’s close among scouts, but he has Slaf at 1, Wright at 2…. Reminding me of the hischier and Patrick draft.

So a couple of questions

Why slaf over Cooley? I know position is different

I see nemec is the highest rated Dman, is there any chance we draft him at 2 or would you trade down to 4 or 5
- dmarsden2988

No idea why Slaf is over Cooley other than recency bias and size. Every time I listen to a podcast of draft experts or scouts or read articles on the prospects they all say the same thing when comparing Slafkovsky and Cooley,(if they have Slaf ahead) "Slafs combination of size and toolset makes him very intriguing and he played well against men at the Olympics and World Championships, so he should be close to NHL ready, meanwhile Cooley is the more dynamic player and has the higher ceiling "BUT he's only 5'10". Anytime someone talks about the two and they have Slaf ahead, size is always the differentiating factor for some reason. Both are very good prospects in their way though, should get an impact player with either guy.

I think there is a slight chance we take Nemec or Jiricek at 2, but I think it'd be far more likely we trade down to 5 or 6 to pick up an extra asset while also taking one at that pick. I'm assuming we just stay put and take one of the forwards though.

My personal hopes on draft night in order:
1) Dream scenario - Habs galaxy brain it and leave Wright for us
2) Best Case with Wright gone - We take Cooley
3) Still a good pick with Wright gone - We take Slaf
4) Not happy about it but its a fine pick - We take Jiricek
5) Would hate it as much as taking Holtz over Rossi/Perfetti - We take Nemec

To me it feels like the Cooley stuff is like people being low on Barzal and more recently Caufield. Both should've been taken higher and their size was part of why people didn't want to draft them. "can't teach size" is just a moronic valuation of talent.

To me it feels like the Cooley stuff is like people being low on Barzal and more recently Caufield. Both should've been taken higher and their size was part of why people didn't want to draft them. "can't teach size" is just a moronic valuation of talent.
- Pomegrant

Yeah it's pretty similar. Same thing with Matt Savoie in this draft too. He should probably go 5 or 6, but has a shot to drop out of the top 10 because hes only 5'9. The NHL will seemingly always have a height bias lol

Yeah it's pretty similar. Same thing with Matt Savoie in this draft too. He should probably go 5 or 6, but has a shot to drop out of the top 10 because hes only 5'9. The NHL will seemingly always have a height bias lol
- vlongo4419

It'll be interesting to see one day if some sports scientists can figure this out, but I'm guessing that once you're inside of a certain height range it doesn't actually matter how tall you are. With all things when you reach the bottom/top range of something you aren't effective. This is the reason why GMs kept drafting guys nearly as tall as Chara thinking height was the important factor when being that tall just hampers them in foot speed. Statistical outliers will always exist but the range of height for being a hockey player is probably ~5'10"-6'3" give or take a bit. There are plenty of grinders in this league that are short guys who lay big hits, so most of the time when somebody sees the big guy playing strong it's just confirmation bias that height mattered.

Physical attributes obviously matter but only in that the player you're drafting doesn't have something that just hampers their ability to be an effective player. Some guys aren't the best skaters regardless of size but are positionally great so why does it matter what their height is. There are plenty of guys who are great skaters but always out of position so they suck. Same goes for height; players range in quality equally based on height.

I agree, I think that's how it goes down too. But if Montreal actually does pass on Wright then I think Fitz runs to stage as fast as possible to pick him lol. Bob's rankings are usually spot on when it comes to the order players are taken too, so having Slaf over Wright is not insignificant here.
- vlongo4419

Bobs list is just a consensus of ten teams actual lists. He doesn’t rank anyone himself. His list is usually just as far off as most especially in weak drafts like this one. Players are ranked all over the place. Some will drop a lot and others will be picked much higher than the list.

Bobs list is just a consensus of ten teams actual lists. He doesn’t rank anyone himself. His list is usually just as far off as most especially in weak drafts like this one. Players are ranked all over the place. Some will drop a lot and others will be picked much higher than the list.
- TurdFergeson

Yes, exactly. Thats why i said its not insignificant that Slaf is listed as #1. Going all the way back to 2008, the player that was ranked #1 on Bobs final rankings went #1 in the draft. His lists are pretty spot on at the very top of the draft, and thats the only thing that matters for us. Obviously sometimes a team goes rogue and reaches or makes a horrible pick, but theyre outliers for the most part

Either way, it atleast puts some intrigue into the 1st pick to see if the Habs do something dumb or not.

Cam Robinson put it pretty good on twitter when talking about it.

Said how Bobs rankings have historically been spot on at the top but this is probably the year its wrong because Slaf is too big of a risk for Montreal.

Also said NJ make out like bandits here no matter what because "they either take the big swing on upside - in a position of need organizationally, in a draft spot they won and can accept a bit more risk with.

Or they fall ass backwards into 'another' top-line center"

Cam Robinson put it pretty good on twitter when talking about it.

Said how Bobs rankings have historically been spot on at the top but this is probably the year its wrong because Slaf is too big of a risk for Montreal.

Also said NJ make out like bandits here no matter what because "they either take the big swing on upside - in a position of need organizationally, in a draft spot they won and can accept a bit more risk with.

Or they fall ass backwards into 'another' top-line center"
- vlongo4419

It will be insanity if Montreal goes for Slaf. If they give us a 3rd first line center it would be such a steal.

It will be insanity if Montreal goes for Slaf. If they give us a 3rd first line center it would be such a steal.
- Pomegrant

It makes me giddy thinking about the possibility of rolling out Hughes-Hischier-Wright down the middle every single night for the next decade lol, or even just putting Wright and his shot on Jacks wing if need be. I refuse to believe Montreal could pass on him until it actually happens though lol

It makes me giddy thinking about the possibility of rolling out Hughes-Hischier-Wright down the middle every single night for the next decade lol, or even just putting Wright and his shot on Jacks wing if need be. I refuse to believe Montreal could pass on him until it actually happens though lol
- vlongo4419

Then we get bedard next year 😳