Bill Meltzer: Quick Hits: Michkov, Hathaway, Johnson, TK, Departing FAs, Dev Camp

Bill Meltzer: Quick Hits: Michkov, Hathaway, Johnson, TK, Departing FAs, Dev Camp
- bmeltzer

Thanks Bill. Looking forward to seeing MM arrive here. The one positive in the offseason so far IMO. Next year will be a slog but we’ll have lots of picks for a stronger draft than this one. Also be interesting to see Luchanko at the development camp. I knew nothing about him prior to us getting him.

I’m not sure I understand the Hathaway deal.

First, can we not develop fourth line guys in our system? Second, that price, a year early, and his age just doesn’t seem prudent. As I have had to say too many times with this team, this isn’t the biggest issue, but all of these little issues can have trickle down effects on larger decisions. I just don’t see the rush nor prudence on this move

IMO Briere should not hesitate one second and offer Konecy for Askarov to Nashville.

In Tortorella's system, Askarov is capable of winning the Vezina.

Solidifying the goaltending position should be paramount for every GM. A goalie of Askarov's abilities becoming available via trade is a rarity. Briere should pounce at this opportunity and even retain some of Konecy's salary to make it work.

To me, Askarov is exactly what the Flyers need.

On the plus side, they didn’t do anything particularly stupid in free agency though I don’t think extending Hathaway was a good idea.

However, if Briere goes ahead and extends TK for 8 years at an aav around 9 million, I will be very disappointed. The Flyers are at least 3 and more likely 5 years away from being a contender. At that point, at best, Konecny is a 2nd line wing, at worst he’s breaking down with wear and tear and on the 3rd line when healthy.

Do the smart thing Danny, trade him.

IMO Briere should not hesitate one second and offer Konecy for Askarov to Nashville.

In Tortorella's system, Askarov is capable of winning the Vezina.

Solidifying the goaltending position should be paramount for every GM. A goalie of Askarov's abilities becoming available via trade is a rarity. Briere should pounce at this opportunity and even retain some of Konecy's salary to make it work.

To me, Askarov is exactly what the Flyers need.
- VinnyP

I don’t think the team prioritizes goaltending unfortunately. I’d prefer to get some different help in the form of prospects and picks if we deal tk. Let’s see how Ersson and Fedotov do this year. I feel like we’re running back a very similar but worse team than what we had last year with the extension of gh and re signing of EJ with the notable exception of MM coming in.
I feel like they’ll be very bad this year.

I’m not sure I understand the Hathaway deal.

First, can we not develop fourth line guys in our system? Second, that price, a year early, and his age just doesn’t seem prudent. As I have had to say too many times with this team, this isn’t the biggest issue, but all of these little issues can have trickle down effects on larger decisions. I just don’t see the rush nor prudence on this move
- coffee junkie

I am not trying to defend the move, just repeating what Briere said in his presser yesterday. Briere said multiple GMs commented to him how hard the Flyers had become to play against, and Briere's feeling is Hathaway is the main reason for that. Though Hathaway will be 35 when this new deal expires, Briere stated Hathaway is a workout freak and does not expect a drop off from him. Finally Briere stated the fact that Hathaway was willing to extend at the same cap hit was a factor also.

Personally I like Hathaway as a player and didn't mind the signing, but only if some veteran players are shipped out also, so there are ample spots for younger players to get a chance. I want the Flyers to get younger next season and if they take a step back in the standings, all the better.

I am not trying to defend the move, just repeating what Briere said in his presser yesterday. Briere said multiple GMs commented to him how hard the Flyers had become to play against, and Briere's feeling is Hathaway is the main reason for that. Though Hathaway will be 35 when this new deal expires, Briere stated Hathaway is a workout freak and does not expect a drop off from him. Finally Briere stated the fact that Hathaway was willing to extend at the same cap hit was a factor also.

Personally I like Hathaway as a player and didn't mind the signing, but only if some veteran players are shipped out also, so there are ample spots for younger players to get a chance. I want the Flyers to get younger next season and if they take a step back in the standings, all the better.
- jd250

What vets are you hoping are being shipped out? Do you think Hathaway could have possibly gotten a better deal next year during free agency?

I don’t think the team prioritizes goaltending unfortunately. I’d prefer to get some different help in the form of prospects and picks if we deal tk. Let’s see how Ersson and Fedotov do this year. I feel like we’re running back a very similar but worse team than what we had last year with the extension of gh and re signing of EJ with the notable exception of MM coming in.
I feel like they’ll be very bad this year.
- Hextall271

This is why I want Briere to trade some veterans and take a step back this year. Other teams around the Flyers got better yesterday so that will help push the Flyers down in the standings also. We saw first hand the past two drafts how hard it is to trade up into the top 10 or top 5, especially in a deeper draft like the one upcoming. Teams are not willing to trade those picks, thus the only way to get a really high pick is to Suck for a season. The Flyers pick will be the best chance to land an elite player, the Edmonton and Colorado picks will most likely be in the 20s. I will be disappointed if Briere does not make some moves to assure he is picking in the top 5 next year.

Why does Danny talk up Andre and then block him and Attard with signing Johnson? Before I hear, a 7th ‘D Daddy’ isn’t blocking kids, of course he is. Every game he plays is a game not played by a kid. If his job is to sit and doing nothing, fine I guess but we all know he will play 35 games like old man Staal did last year.

What vets are you hoping are being shipped out? Do you think Hathaway could have possibly gotten a better deal next year during free agency?
- coffee junkie

I am open to any veteran player being traded, no one should be untouchable except Michkov. The most likely candidates to trade are Laughton and Farabee. I would love to trade Risto but he needs to show he can play coming off the injury so I can see him being moved at the deadline. Would love to move Couts but given his injury history and contract I would think its not possible. I think the market is set for TK whether his agent likes it or not. If he goes into this next season unsigned I trade TK at the deadline. I would definately move Deslauriers if any team wanted him, otherwise waive him and send him down.

I don’t think the team prioritizes goaltending unfortunately. I’d prefer to get some different help in the form of prospects and picks if we deal tk. Let’s see how Ersson and Fedotov do this year. I feel like we’re running back a very similar but worse team than what we had last year with the extension of gh and re signing of EJ with the notable exception of MM coming in.
I feel like they’ll be very bad this year.
- Hextall271

They have drafted 6 goalies over the past 7 drafts, so saying they don't prioritize goalies in not correct.

They also thought they had carter hart who a lot of people believed would be their starter for years to come.

They also may have thought they had a good goalie pipe line.

Krill
Errson
Kolosov
Yegor
Sandstom
Tomek
Fedotov

Why does Danny talk up Andre and then block him and Attard with signing Johnson? Before I hear, a 7th ‘D Daddy’ isn’t blocking kids, of course he is. Every game he plays is a game not played by a kid. If his job is to sit and doing nothing, fine I guess but we all know he will play 35 games like old man Staal did last year.
- coffee junkie

Plus this was already proven out last year with Stall. He was supposed to be the "7th D-man but played consistently until, thank god, he got hurt....

Why does Danny talk up Andre and then block him and Attard with signing Johnson? Before I hear, a 7th ‘D Daddy’ isn’t blocking kids, of course he is. Every game he plays is a game not played by a kid. If his job is to sit and doing nothing, fine I guess but we all know he will play 35 games like old man Staal did last year.
- coffee junkie

EJ is not blocking anyone, he is there solely as a 7th defenseman and to help bring the younger defenseman along. Last year Marc Staal played in 35 games and that is with all the injuries late in the season on the Flyers defense. I highly doubt EJ will play even this many games unless there is another rash of injuries.

When it comes to re-signing players I think people focus too much on the cap hit number, not as much on the cap % it makes up on the roster.

Way too many excuses for bad signings like "Demand" or "Taxes" or "Going rate". Yeah that may mean a lot for the player, but the business side....who cares. When it's one of the best players in the league and any team would bend over backwards to get that player then it makes sense, the rest not really.

What's good compensation for a star player? 8 - 9%? Clearly 10% or more you better damn be ONE of the best in the league, top 40-50 in the league? The mega mega stars like McDavid are going to get the top of the top, I believe the max is 20%, and most of them normally fall between 13-15%. What's the highest percent a player ever gotten at the time of the signing? Has anyone come close to 20% in the salary cap era?

Then you get to "bad contracts". How do you determine what a bad contract is? First thing that pops into my head is "Performance and production over the term of the contract vs. the cap %". So comparing contracts can be helpful, but also worthless at the same time. Every contract can be justified selectively by choosing one that underperforms, but the point is to make good signings not make the same mistakes. When the player signs a contract for more than their previous one the expectation is for the performance/production to at least be the same or better through out the term of the contract, consistency is key.

So Konency has shown to be a 30 goal, 60 point player, drops off later in the season due to performance and/or injury. What's the odds he will continue that over the term of his new contract and what are the odds he will exceed that?

10m cap hit = 11.36% in 2024.

I doubt the cap gets to 100m over the next 8 years, if that is the term. So over the term he will be over 10%.

Is Konecny really a superstar? Is 30 goals, 60 points considered superstar expectations? Will it hurt the Flyers in the future paying others?

I personally think Konecny as a 10% player isn't worth the end results.

I’m not sure I understand the Hathaway deal.

First, can we not develop fourth line guys in our system? Second, that price, a year early, and his age just doesn’t seem prudent. As I have had to say too many times with this team, this isn’t the biggest issue, but all of these little issues can have trickle down effects on larger decisions. I just don’t see the rush nor prudence on this move
- coffee junkie

Can't stand this deal and, yet again, shows the lack of forward thinking by Flyers management. They will always and forever be in love with size and grit. Given that, have you seen some of the insane deals these GMS are giving out. Incredible, paying guys until they are 38, 39 and even 40 in sport where you start to age out at 30!

IMO Briere should not hesitate one second and offer Konecy for Askarov to Nashville.

In Tortorella's system, Askarov is capable of winning the Vezina.

Solidifying the goaltending position should be paramount for every GM. A goalie of Askarov's abilities becoming available via trade is a rarity. Briere should pounce at this opportunity and even retain some of Konecy's salary to make it work.

To me, Askarov is exactly what the Flyers need.
- VinnyP

doubt they want to trade him for a free agent to be

I am open to any veteran player being traded, no one should be untouchable except Michkov. The most likely candidates to trade are Laughton and Farabee. I would love to trade Risto but he needs to show he can play coming off the injury so I can see him being moved at the deadline. Would love to move Couts but given his injury history and contract I would think its not possible. I think the market is set for TK whether his agent likes it or not. If he goes into this next season unsigned I trade TK at the deadline. I would definately move Deslauriers if any team wanted him, otherwise waive him and send him down.
- jd250

But you claim TK is someone you build a team around. Again, the goal posts get moved every single day.

I am not trying to defend the move, just repeating what Briere said in his presser yesterday. Briere said multiple GMs commented to him how hard the Flyers had become to play against, and Briere's feeling is Hathaway is the main reason for that. Though Hathaway will be 35 when this new deal expires, Briere stated Hathaway is a workout freak and does not expect a drop off from him. Finally Briere stated the fact that Hathaway was willing to extend at the same cap hit was a factor also.

Personally I like Hathaway as a player and didn't mind the signing, but only if some veteran players are shipped out also, so there are ample spots for younger players to get a chance. I want the Flyers to get younger next season and if they take a step back in the standings, all the better.
- jd250

entertainment at its finest.


what younger players? danny boy has stated there is no help in LHV anytime soon.

This is why I want Briere to trade some veterans and take a step back this year. Other teams around the Flyers got better yesterday so that will help push the Flyers down in the standings also. We saw first hand the past two drafts how hard it is to trade up into the top 10 or top 5, especially in a deeper draft like the one upcoming. Teams are not willing to trade those picks, thus the only way to get a really high pick is to Suck for a season. The Flyers pick will be the best chance to land an elite player, the Edmonton and Colorado picks will most likely be in the 20s. I will be disappointed if Briere does not make some moves to assure he is picking in the top 5 next year.
- jd250

they will take a step back though not by design.

What moves do you want him to make? throw out the JD50 plan. Who you moving, to what teams, and for what?

When it comes to re-signing players I think people focus too much on the cap hit number, not as much on the cap % it makes up on the roster.

Way too many excuses for bad signings like "Demand" or "Taxes" or "Going rate". Yeah that may mean a lot for the player, but the business side....who cares. When it's one of the best players in the league and any team would bend over backwards to get that player then it makes sense, the rest not really.

What's good compensation for a star player? 8 - 9%? Clearly 10% or more you better damn be ONE of the best in the league, top 40-50 in the league? The mega mega stars like McDavid are going to get the top of the top, I believe the max is 20%, and most of them normally fall between 13-15%. What's the highest percent a player ever gotten at the time of the signing? Has anyone come close to 20% in the salary cap era?

Then you get to "bad contracts". How do you determine what a bad contract is? First thing that pops into my head is "Performance and production over the term of the contract vs. the cap %". So comparing contracts can be helpful, but also worthless at the same time. Every contract can be justified selectively by choosing one that underperforms, but the point is to make good signings not make the same mistakes. When the player signs a contract for more than their previous one the expectation is for the performance/production to at least be the same or better through out the term of the contract, consistency is key.

So Konency has shown to be a 30 goal, 60 point player, drops off later in the season due to performance and/or injury. What's the odds he will continue that over the term of his new contract and what are the odds he will exceed that?

10m cap hit = 11.36% in 2024.

I doubt the cap gets to 100m over the next 8 years, if that is the term. So over the term he will be over 10%.

Is Konecny really a superstar? Is 30 goals, 60 points considered superstar expectations? Will it hurt the Flyers in the future paying others?

I personally think Konecny as a 10% player isn't worth the end results.
- Glak18

I think you are right, cap % over the life of the contract is a much better gauge versus AAV. I wouldn't mind if TK started at 10% because I know over the next couple of seasons that % would drop to 7-8% which is much more reasonable. To me the market was set yesterday with the signings of Guenzel and Reinhart. Now I know Florida does not have income tax, but TK didn't score 57 goals last season either. If I am the Flyers, I hold firm at 7 years and $58M, take it or leave it. I don't give TK 8 years given his age when the contract kicks in.

they will take a step back though not by design.

What moves do you want him to make? throw out the JD50 plan. Who you moving, to what teams, and for what?
- hello it's me 2050

I laid it out already today in another post.

Why does Danny talk up Andre and then block him and Attard with signing Johnson? Before I hear, a 7th ‘D Daddy’ isn’t blocking kids, of course he is. Every game he plays is a game not played by a kid. If his job is to sit and doing nothing, fine I guess but we all know he will play 35 games like old man Staal did last year.
- coffee junkie

attard is now 25 years old. he will need to pass through waivers (dont think he will be claimed). dont think him being a 6/7 guy would do him any harm at this point.

there was zero need for EJ

I'm not buying the whole state-tax thing, especially with regards, to PA. On a $10MM salary it amounts to a measly $300K. If Reinhart is worth $8.6MM and TK wants the same money then he is worth just under $9MM. BUT he is not worth as much as Reinhart, so the $10MM demand is absolutely insane....

I laid it out already today in another post.
- jd250

then lay it out again. cut and paste it