Mike Augello: Toronto Maple Leafs Prospects - #35

Reblogged, so I might as well post it here.

I guess I would take exciting suck over boring dead suck.
- AdamFrench

I mean it's more of a useless article - how do fans feel about their franchise? It doesn't reflect on the value or reality. What we feel as fans is often stupid and pointless.

There's a significant portion of sports fans who fail to objectively view anything.

The Leafs are low because every year they are Charlie Brown kicking a football. This is the year that Lucy's going to hold the ball! But after a while everyone, including Charlie Brown, is in on the joke. It's hard to have much faith.

If you do - and I think Dom does it every year and may have done it recently - look at the actual value provided by each player for their contract and also keep in mind that Dom undervalues contracts so it easier to outperform your contract if you're an elite performer . . . the Leafs have a significant number of players who perform to or outperform their contracts. In this upcoming season I don't think Nylander lives up to his and we know Tavares can't.

So on the Leafs for 2024-24 - where is the waste likely to be? Tavares, Kampf, Reaves, Ekman-Larsson and Liljegren. Nylander, I suspect, doesn't live up to the $11.5m deal - but he's in his prime and if he remains in the top-20 in points and goals, he'll be close enough to a fair contract. JT is probably $4-5m off of his value, Kampf is probably only about $800k, Reaves $600k.

To me OEL is a challenge because he adds puck movement from the back end and a shot from the back end that we need, but he adds soft defensive coverage which we already have in spades. I feel at $2.5m he was more fairly priced - but he was likely always going to exceed that in the open market.

Liljegren at $3m seems egregious. I didn't think his play really warranted much of a raise at all - but the underlying numbers suggest he was fairly strong in a top-4 role most of the time with McCabe. All I can say is that to me $3m feels like it's $1m too much. But what I do know? What I feel is stupid and pointless.

Reblogged, so I might as well post it here.



I mean it's more of a useless article - how do fans feel about their franchise? It doesn't reflect on the value or reality. What we feel as fans is often stupid and pointless.

There's a significant portion of sports fans who fail to objectively view anything.

The Leafs are low because every year they are Charlie Brown kicking a football. This is the year that Lucy's going to hold the ball! But after a while everyone, including Charlie Brown, is in on the joke. It's hard to have much faith.

If you do - and I think Dom does it every year and may have done it recently - look at the actual value provided by each player for their contract and also keep in mind that Dom undervalues contracts so it easier to outperform your contract if you're an elite performer . . . the Leafs have a significant number of players who perform to or outperform their contracts. In this upcoming season I don't think Nylander lives up to his and we know Tavares can't.

So on the Leafs for 2024-24 - where is the waste likely to be? Tavares, Kampf, Reaves, Ekman-Larsson and Liljegren. Nylander, I suspect, doesn't live up to the $11.5m deal - but he's in his prime and if he remains in the top-20 in points and goals, he'll be close enough to a fair contract. JT is probably $4-5m off of his value, Kampf is probably only about $800k, Reaves $600k.

To me OEL is a challenge because he adds puck movement from the back end and a shot from the back end that we need, but he adds soft defensive coverage which we already have in spades. I feel at $2.5m he was more fairly priced - but he was likely always going to exceed that in the open market.

Liljegren at $3m seems egregious. I didn't think his play really warranted much of a raise at all - but the underlying numbers suggest he was fairly strong in a top-4 role most of the time with McCabe. All I can say is that to me $3m feels like it's $1m too much. But what I do know? What I feel is stupid and pointless.
- Monkeypunk

Well despite being stupid and pointless, I'd say you're mostly right.

I'm not a fan of Dom lycycncucycn's model personally, I think it tends to overvalue certain types of players and undervalue others, but that's just me.

Well despite being stupid and pointless, I'd say you're mostly right.

I'm not a fan of Dom lycycncucycn's model personally, I think it tends to overvalue certain types of players and undervalue others, but that's just me.
- Scabeh

well polling fans on how they feel about their team is not really a model.

Reblogged, so I might as well post it here.



I mean it's more of a useless article - how do fans feel about their franchise? It doesn't reflect on the value or reality. What we feel as fans is often stupid and pointless.

There's a significant portion of sports fans who fail to objectively view anything.

The Leafs are low because every year they are Charlie Brown kicking a football. This is the year that Lucy's going to hold the ball! But after a while everyone, including Charlie Brown, is in on the joke. It's hard to have much faith.

If you do - and I think Dom does it every year and may have done it recently - look at the actual value provided by each player for their contract and also keep in mind that Dom undervalues contracts so it easier to outperform your contract if you're an elite performer . . . the Leafs have a significant number of players who perform to or outperform their contracts. In this upcoming season I don't think Nylander lives up to his and we know Tavares can't.

So on the Leafs for 2024-24 - where is the waste likely to be? Tavares, Kampf, Reaves, Ekman-Larsson and Liljegren. Nylander, I suspect, doesn't live up to the $11.5m deal - but he's in his prime and if he remains in the top-20 in points and goals, he'll be close enough to a fair contract. JT is probably $4-5m off of his value, Kampf is probably only about $800k, Reaves $600k.

To me OEL is a challenge because he adds puck movement from the back end and a shot from the back end that we need, but he adds soft defensive coverage which we already have in spades. I feel at $2.5m he was more fairly priced - but he was likely always going to exceed that in the open market.

Liljegren at $3m seems egregious. I didn't think his play really warranted much of a raise at all - but the underlying numbers suggest he was fairly strong in a top-4 role most of the time with McCabe. All I can say is that to me $3m feels like it's $1m too much. But what I do know? What I feel is stupid and pointless.
- Monkeypunk

It was easy to dismiss OEL's defensive shortcomings in Arizona. He was pushed into a top-pair position and was expected to eat a ton of tough minutes on a weak team.

He was a mixed bag during his stint in Vancouver.

He bounced back in a reduced role in Florida, but he was playing on a much deeper team with a goalie having a career season.

He's not getting younger and I worry that his future trajectory will be closer (defensively) to what we saw in Arizona and Vancouver. I wouldn't expect to see a repeat of his Florida revival performance.

I hope he proves me wrong.

It was easy to dismiss OEL's defensive shortcomings in Arizona. He was pushed into a top-pair position and was expected to eat a ton of tough minutes on a weak team.

He was a mixed bag during his stint in Vancouver.

He bounced back in a reduced role in Florida, but he was playing on a much deeper team with a goalie having a career season.

He's not getting younger and I worry that his future trajectory will be closer (defensively) to what we saw in Arizona and Vancouver. I wouldn't expect to see a repeat of his Florida revival performance.

I hope he proves me wrong.
- GalacticStone

- Dozzer

Offensively, he should be fine.

I've never been a fan of his defensive side of the game.

It causes me concern.

That's it.

If he's not leaned on to provide top-pair minutes, he should do fine.

Dom Extremely long Eastern European fake name will never be hired by an analytics department.

Offensively, he should be fine.

I've never been a fan of his defensive side of the game.

It causes me concern.

That's it.

If he's not leaned on to provide top-pair minutes, he should do fine.
- GalacticStone

OEL on a 4 year deal...ugh, that aint pretty.
Im sure he'll be hated about mid way through the 2nd year of that contract (unless he racks up goals on the PP).
Defensively, he isnt great and as you pointed out, he'll probably be getting worse. So hopefully he's getting 35 - 40pts on average for the next several years.
Le time will le tell.

It was easy to dismiss OEL's defensive shortcomings in Arizona. He was pushed into a top-pair position and was expected to eat a ton of tough minutes on a weak team.

He was a mixed bag during his stint in Vancouver.

He bounced back in a reduced role in Florida, but he was playing on a much deeper team with a goalie having a career season.

He's not getting younger and I worry that his future trajectory will be closer (defensively) to what we saw in Arizona and Vancouver. I wouldn't expect to see a repeat of his Florida revival performance.

I hope he proves me wrong.
- GalacticStone

Ultimately the challenge with OEL is that you are paying him for his potential PP performance not his defensive acumen - but you'll be rolling him out in 5/6 5v5 minutes against weaker competition. So he's making $3.5m x 4 - you're paying him #4 D-man money, but he's not really capable of doing that role long-term.

Curiously over the past 3 seasons in power play points / 60 by a defenseman who has played more than 75 power play minutes - Erik Gustafsson - a guy who could've been had for $2m - is 45th among all defensemen; OEL is 54th. Conor Timmins, a guy we already have and want to trade, is 32nd.

If you look solely at goals, OEL is 55th using the same criteria - which is still better than any Leaf defenseman, but not drastically so.

I have to be honest, that $3.5m given to him is a curious - or really if I'm honest, poor, decision. I do think he has the skills to excel in a 5/6 role with a good supporting team around him. Like I'd almost think that paired with a guy like Benoit or Hakanpaa, you'd have the ability to give him some room to maneuver and the defensive partner to let him move a bit.

I think they're going to try and put him in a top-4 position to start, he will not last there, and he will fall into the 5/6 role and be overpaid for the minutes he provides.

Guys...nobody but Morgan Rielly has passed 30 points on the Leafs blueline since Tyson Barrie in 2019. That's INSANE. PP time or not. poopty players can fluke into it with a lucky year. If OEL can be a steady secondary offensive option from the blueline, that's all they need. The defense can't move the puck.

Also..holy (frank) this is a sad list

https://www.nhl.com/stats...Played&page=0&pageSize=50

Guys...nobody but Morgan Rielly has passed 30 points on the Leafs blueline since Tyson Barrie in 2019. That's INSANE. PP time or not. poopty players can fluke into it with a lucky year. If OEL can be a steady secondary offensive option from the blueline, that's all they need. The defense can't move the puck.

Also..holy (frank) this is a sad list

https://www.nhl.com/stats...Played&page=0&pageSize=50
- AdamFrench

Dion Phaneuf is still unsigned.

Ultimately the challenge with OEL is that you are paying him for his potential PP performance not his defensive acumen - but you'll be rolling him out in 5/6 5v5 minutes against weaker competition. So he's making $3.5m x 4 - you're paying him #4 D-man money, but he's not really capable of doing that role long-term.

Curiously over the past 3 seasons in power play points / 60 by a defenseman who has played more than 75 power play minutes - Erik Gustafsson - a guy who could've been had for $2m - is 45th among all defensemen; OEL is 54th. Conor Timmins, a guy we already have and want to trade, is 32nd.

If you look solely at goals, OEL is 55th using the same criteria - which is still better than any Leaf defenseman, but not drastically so.

I have to be honest, that $3.5m given to him is a curious - or really if I'm honest, poor, decision. I do think he has the skills to excel in a 5/6 role with a good supporting team around him. Like I'd almost think that paired with a guy like Benoit or Hakanpaa, you'd have the ability to give him some room to maneuver and the defensive partner to let him move a bit.

I think they're going to try and put him in a top-4 position to start, he will not last there, and he will fall into the 5/6 role and be overpaid for the minutes he provides.
- Monkeypunk

If he scores goals and doesn't randomly poop the bed, he'll be liked and do fine.

Almost everybody in hockey is overpaid nowadays. Bargains are hard to come by.

Dion Phaneuf is still unsigned.
- GalacticStone

Speaking of. Double Dion has to be one of the greatest cock teases of all time.

Third in Calder voting in a year behind Crosby and OV, ahead of Lundqvist. Nutty

Speaking of. Double Dion has to be one of the greatest cock teases of all time.

Third in Calder voting in a year behind Crosby and OV, ahead of Lundqvist. Nutty
- AdamFrench

Speaking of. Double Dion has to be one of the greatest cock teases of all time.

Third in Calder voting in a year behind Crosby and OV, ahead of Lundqvist. Nutty
- AdamFrench

On Crosby, he is 10th alltime in scoring.
How high does he get?

if he plays until he is 40...say 4 more seasons...if he can average 70-75 points, puts him near #3 Messier at 1887

what a legend

On Crosby, he is 10th alltime in scoring.
How high does he get?

if he plays until he is 40...say 4 more seasons...if he can average 70-75 points, puts him near #3 Messier at 1887

what a legend
- senstroll

3rd. Don't think it's even a debate if healthy.

Penguins will get McKenna in 2026 and then Crosby will mentor him like Lemieux did for him. Full conspiracy.

Speaking of. Double Dion has to be one of the greatest cock teases of all time.

Third in Calder voting in a year behind Crosby and OV, ahead of Lundqvist. Nutty
- AdamFrench

I remember when Burke compared Pha9's leadership to Messier 😭

3rd. Don't think it's even a debate if healthy.

Penguins will get McKenna in 2026 and then Crosby will mentor him like Lemieux did for him. Full conspiracy.
- AdamFrench

health for sure, but most eventually hit a wall. I think he eeks out 3rd after slowing a lot in the last ~couple seasons he plays

On Crosby, he is 10th alltime in scoring.
How high does he get?

if he plays until he is 40...say 4 more seasons...if he can average 70-75 points, puts him near #3 Messier at 1887

what a legend
- senstroll

Also does he pass Messier wearing a Penguins jersey? Or something a little more blue and white?

health for sure, but most eventually hit a wall. I think he eeks out 3rd after slowing a lot in the last ~couple seasons he plays
- senstroll

poop happens, but I think we've found out over the years to not bet against the Android, however much we might hate him for abandoning his teammates to play hockey with children.

Also does he pass Messier wearing a Penguins jersey? Or something a little more blue and white?
- Zezel

Finally living his childhood dream of playing for the Habs? Helping complete the rebuild and show the way to our young players how to win it all? As you said red BLUE and WHITE.

Makes perfect sense.

Also does he pass Messier wearing a Penguins jersey? Or something a little more blue and white?
- Zezel

Mcdavid moves into #2 spot wearing blue and white

It was easy to dismiss OEL's defensive shortcomings in Arizona. He was pushed into a top-pair position and was expected to eat a ton of tough minutes on a weak team.

He was a mixed bag during his stint in Vancouver.

He bounced back in a reduced role in Florida, but he was playing on a much deeper team with a goalie having a career season.

He's not getting younger and I worry that his future trajectory will be closer (defensively) to what we saw in Arizona and Vancouver. I wouldn't expect to see a repeat of his Florida revival performance.

I hope he proves me wrong.
- GalacticStone

He was f*cking awful his entire time in Vancouver.