Jeremy Laura: Axel Sandin-Pellikka leads the way on SHL as top point producer

A little (rough) perspective on MBN's performance and trajectory, using Lucas Raymond as a comparable.

DY-1
Raymond: 1.3 ppg in Swedish juniors, 0.2 ppg in SHL
MBN: 1.09ppg in Swedish juniors, 0.27 ppg in HockeyAllsvenskan

DY
Raymond: 1.56 ppg in Swedish juniors, 0.3 ppg in SHL
MBN: 1.7 ppg in Swedish juniors, 0.44 ppg in HockeyAllsvenskan

DY+1
Raymond: 0.53 ppg in SHL
MBN: 0.46 ppg in SHL (so far)

A little extra explanation here, HockeyAllsvenskan is the second-tier pro league in Sweden, but it's much closer in caliber to the SHL than the AHL is to the NHL. Subjectively I would say that the SHL is a bit better than the AHL while HockeyAllsvenskan is slightly worse than the AHL (but much closer to the AHL than the ECHL).

Overall Raymond has an edge on league-adjusted offensive production from age 17-19 (which you'd expect for a #4 overall pick) but it's not a massive edge. Like ~15-20ish percent more productive on a per-game basis. Which if it holds, is like the difference between a 65-70-point player and an 80-point player.

Obviously it's still super duper early and there's absolutely no guarantee that he's going to keep on this trajectory. He could wind up worse (or better!) at the NHL level. Just wanted to point out that he was not expected to blow up the SHL as a 19-year-old and is actually about where we would have expected through 13 games.

^^^^^^^^^Thanks Sven!

Would love to see you do an interview with Trey Augustine! I need to get up on the Spartans year, but it looks like they are on a tear, and TA’s goalie stats are killer.

A little (rough) perspective on MBN's performance and trajectory, using Lucas Raymond as a comparable.

DY-1
Raymond: 1.3 ppg in Swedish juniors, 0.2 ppg in SHL
MBN: 1.09ppg in Swedish juniors, 0.27 ppg in HockeyAllsvenskan

DY
Raymond: 1.56 ppg in Swedish juniors, 0.3 ppg in SHL
MBN: 1.7 ppg in Swedish juniors, 0.44 ppg in HockeyAllsvenskan

DY+1
Raymond: 0.53 ppg in SHL
MBN: 0.46 ppg in SHL (so far)

A little extra explanation here, HockeyAllsvenskan is the second-tier pro league in Sweden, but it's much closer in caliber to the SHL than the AHL is to the NHL. Subjectively I would say that the SHL is a bit better than the AHL while HockeyAllsvenskan is slightly worse than the AHL (but much closer to the AHL than the ECHL).

Overall Raymond has an edge on league-adjusted offensive production from age 17-19 (which you'd expect for a #4 overall pick) but it's not a massive edge. Like ~15-20ish percent more productive on a per-game basis. Which if it holds, is like the difference between a 65-70-point player and an 80-point player.

Obviously it's still super duper early and there's absolutely no guarantee that he's going to keep on this trajectory. He could wind up worse (or better!) at the NHL level. Just wanted to point out that he was not expected to blow up the SHL as a 19-year-old and is actually about where we would have expected through 13 games.
- Sven22

Probably worth noting that Raymond's D+1 year was cut short by injury. He also played on a very low-scoring team. Imagine playing on NYI. ASP and MBS are playing for the reigning champions who score about 0.5 goals more per game than Raymond's squad. Imagine them playing on Florida or Colorado. The gap - so far - is probably wider than it appears.

DRW will need to top this if they want Jirisek:
"Rob Rossi reports in The Athletic that Dubas "simply loves" the Columbus Blue Jackets newest trade candidate David Jiricek, and that he has offered McGroarty as trade bait in his attempt to try to land the 6'4", 200-pound defenseman."

Probably worth noting that Raymond's D+1 year was cut short by injury. He also played on a very low-scoring team. Imagine playing on NYI. ASP and MBS are playing for the reigning champions who score about 0.5 goals more per game than Raymond's squad. Imagine them playing on Florida or Colorado. The gap - so far - is probably wider than it appears.
- Cooleus

Worth noting, sure, but I'm not sure I buy that we can safely conclude lower scoring team = higher projection at the same individual ppg.

First of all, that gap only really appears in DY+1, which is the current year for MBN (and he's only played 13 games so far):

DY-1 Raymond played on a 3.6 goals/g junior team
DY-1 MBN played on a 3.6 goals/g junior team

DY Raymond played on a 2.96 goals/g SHL team.
DY MBD played on a 2.92 goals/g HockeyAllsvenskan team.

DY+1 Raymond played on a 2.56 goals/g SHL team
DY+1 MBD is playing on a team that's currently 3 goals/g after 21 games

Second of all, I'm not entirely convinced that team scoring has a consistent, highly correlated impact on individual scoring rates until you get to the truly extreme ends of the spectrum (like, you're on a line with Mario Lemieux, or playing on a team that spends 70 percent of the game in its own zone). A support player on a crappy team might have worse teammates overall but comparable linemate quality and more opportunity due to playing higher in the lineup. It's extremely nuanced and situational, and frankly I don't know enough about ice time, linemates, deployment, etc. between Raymond on 2021 Frolunda vs MBN on 2024 Seklleftea to conclude with confidence that Raymond necessarily had the more challenging scoring environment.

Third, as long as we're nitpicking scoring environment, it's also worth noting that MBN is listed as 2 inches taller and 10 pounds heavier than Raymond, and there is a small but positive correlation between size and ability to maintain scoring rates at higher levels.

Ultimately, though, we won't know for a few years yet. I've been higher than most on MBN's potential scoring impact (I think he projects better than Kasper or Danielson at similar ages) but there's still a meaningful chance he flames out entirely. Because that's just reality with prospect development.