Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Weber Watch

Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Weber Watch
- bmeltzer

WeberWatch2012 **puts pot of coffee on**

Nice to see you up bright and early. Great blog Bill. I'd also like to see the Flyers recoup (at least) the 2014 1st round pick. It would be nice for them to be at the podium in front of the home town fans.

Bill, truly you are master of journalism...
I'm proud to consider you my "remote" friend..

Bill, truly you are master of journalism...
I'm proud to consider you my "remote" friend..
- Ondrej F

Thank you!

Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Weber Watch
- bmeltzer

we fell 80 posts shy of 2000 yesterday. i'm disappointed.

interesting times in july though. interesting indeed.

great work, bill.

we fell 80 posts shy of 2000 yesterday. i'm disappointed.

interesting times in july though. interesting indeed.

great work, bill.
- hammarby31

Dammit, work harder people.

Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger

Nashville can use full 7 days to decide whether to match Weber's offer sheet, but, I suspect decision has been made.

Great read Mr. Metlzer! Who do you see coming back to Nashville should there be a "Gratton agreement"?

Great read Mr. Metlzer! Who do you see coming back to Nashville should there be a "Gratton agreement"?
- LeftCoaster

Something along the lines of Voracek, Meszaros, Marc-Andre Bourdon and two or three of the four first-round picks staying with Nashville in exchange for not matching Weber offer sheet and sending one/two of the first round picks back.

The Predators could probably have extracted a higher price in trade if they hadn't waited so long, but the above would still be a good return under the circumstances.

Great blog. Raises an interesting question--if the Preds match but miss the playoffs for the next year or two, what would happen to the franchise? A playoff spot is never guaranteed in the West and losing Suter alone could be enough to cause them to drop out.

The Flyers next four (likely late) first round picks would not be fair value for one of the league's best D-men, but keep in mind that the Preds being a worse team increases the value of their own picks. They could then scrape by on solid drafting, development, and coaching like they did before Suter and Weber were household names until the next crop of young talent takes the reins and makes the Preds contenders again.

If the Preds match but the team can't compete, then they better hope that Weber is still as valuable in a year or two as he is today. Massive contracts and a losing team in a small market spells bad news for fans and investors alike.

Something along the lines of Voracek, Meszaros, Marc-Andre Bourdon and two or three of the four first-round picks staying with Nashville in exchange for not matching Weber offer sheet and sending one/two of the first round picks back.

The Predators could probably have extracted a higher price in trade if they hadn't waited so long, but the above would still be a good return under the circumstances.
- bmeltzer

Poile really backed himself into a corner with his apparent inaction.

Something along the lines of Voracek, Meszaros, Marc-Andre Bourdon and two or three of the four first-round picks staying with Nashville in exchange for not matching Weber offer sheet and sending one/two of the first round picks back.

The Predators could probably have extracted a higher price in trade if they hadn't waited so long, but the above would still be a good return under the circumstances.
- bmeltzer

Bill Id be alright with that, theres good value there, and more value than if they lost him next summer for nothing.

It will be amazing if they get Weber and keep the Schenns and Coots, Im wondering if Homer was initially willing to part with 1 of Schenn or Coots and Poile overshot things.

Something along the lines of Voracek, Meszaros, Marc-Andre Bourdon and two or three of the four first-round picks staying with Nashville in exchange for not matching Weber offer sheet and sending one/two of the first round picks back.

The Predators could probably have extracted a higher price in trade if they hadn't waited so long, but the above would still be a good return under the circumstances.
- bmeltzer

Overall, big picture, I'd be ecstatic with that end result.

Bill Id be alright with that, theres good value there, and more value than if they lost him next summer for nothing.

It will be amazing if they get Weber and keep the Schenns and Coots, Im wondering if Homer was initially willing to part with 1 of Schenn or Coots and Poile overshot things.
- aosplayo

This is 100% where I think things are and why!!

Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Weber Watch
- bmeltzer

Bill
I wonder if they already have some type of player agreement on the table, behind closed doors of course, as the situation seems strange given Poile & Holmgrens business dealings in seasons past have always been on a good note.
The only thing in regards to trade situation though, especially after losing Suter for nothing, would Poile become "Howson 2.0"? trying to extract the moon from us for one player?
Technically, I can't see stripping the team for one player, despite it being Weber.

as well, why is Weber's camp chirping up our city so much?, when he knows his player can be stuck if they match? Seems strange for them to do so.

I would prefer the flyers keep Vorachek but with the one year deal thing going on and he isn't signed yet I suspect that he goes if a trade package is put together. I would rather that the flyers trade Read than Chekky but cap implications may make it unlikely.
Mez and Bourdon are likely gone, for Weber I say thanks for your services guys.
I wouldn't sent more than 1 first rounder if players are involved. Mez, Bourdon, Vorachek, Cousins, 2015 first rounder. Take that or Weber can play in Nashville. It's really that simple.

Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Weber Watch
- bmeltzer

Bill- can you elaborate on "4) it gets the NHL
off their backs"?

Are you thinking the league may look "more
closely" at this deal because of the impact to
the other franchise. Or purely because of cap
circumvention reasons?

I would prefer the flyers keep Vorachek but with the one year deal thing going on and he isn't signed yet I suspect that he goes if a trade package is put together. I would rather that the flyers trade Read than Chekky but cap implications may make it unlikely.
Mez and Bourdon are likely gone, for Weber I say thanks for your services guys.
I wouldn't sent more than 1 first rounder if players are involved. Mez, Bourdon, Vorachek, Cousins, 2015 first rounder. Take that or Weber can play in Nashville. It's really that simple.
- bird_dog

I know this may sound bad, but I'd think about Simmonds over Voracek, I think he has more upside & we would b]need to go "winger shopping" after if this were the case if we lose him

Bill
I wonder if they already have some type of player agreement on the table, behind closed doors of course, as the situation seems strange given Poile & Holmgrens business dealings in seasons past have always been on a good note.
The only thing in regards to trade situation though, especially after losing Suter for nothing, would Poile become "Howson 2.0"? trying to extract the moon from us for one player?
Technically, I can't see stripping the team for one player, despite it being Weber.

as well, why is Weber's camp chirping up our city so much?, when he knows his player can be stuck if they match? Seems strange for them to do so.
- puckhead17

I would imagine it is called gamesmanship. Ummm...do you really want to pay
a player who doesn't want to be there THAT much?

If they get Weber sans Couturier and Schenn Bros. .....

I would imagine it is called gamesmanship. Ummm...do you really want to pay
a player who doesn't want to be there THAT much?
- section32

No but it's bad business, seems that, like eklund is saying, weber is giving Poile an out if he doesn't want to match, by chirping up Philly, everyone knew Suter was the first shoe & he would follow.
The amazing thing is the $ in the first year, even if Poile was pissed & matched just to auction him next year, he can't pay him $27 million? Or something like that, for one year, he would have to keep him.

Bill- can you elaborate on "4) it gets the NHL
off their backs"?

Are you thinking the league may look "more
closely" at this deal because of the impact to
the other franchise. Or purely because of cap
circumvention reasons?
- section32

The NHL office detests offer sheets, even if the rules allow for them, and I'm sure they are stewing over the signing bonus vs. salary composition of deal to the point there may even be a "Weber rule" added to next CBA to prevent future predatory (no pun intended) offer sheets from front-loading so much in signing bonus.

The Flyers made 100 percent sure the base salary part of the offer sheet was compliant with the "Kovalchuk rule" about the maximum drop-off in salary from one year to next.

But the signing bonus structure is, shall we say, creative. It may not violate any current rules to frontload so much in bonuses but the intent is as blatant as could be -- make it financially devastating to small-market Predators to match.

No but it's bad business, seems that, like eklund is saying, weber is giving Poile an out if he doesn't want to match, by chirping up Philly, everyone knew Suter was the first shoe & he would follow.
The amazing thing is the $ in the first year, even if Poile was pissed & matched just to auction him next year, he can't pay him $27 million? Or something like that, for one year, he would have to keep him.
- puckhead17

Agreed. You can't just toss a player after paying $27 MM for 1 season.
If what they are saying about the new minority owner being "able"
to afford it is true, it still doesn't necessarily mean that they should do
it from a business sense.

Any chance Timmonen goes to Nash as part of a trade, assuming he would waive to NTC to go back to his old team? He takes up $6.33 million in cap space with only $3 million in salary, fills the leadership void left by Weber leaving, and could potentially fetch a nice return around the deadline if the Preds are out of contention.

If not, maybe they would take Lilja as part of a package deal, since he would fill a roster spot and maybe turn into a mid-round draft pick at the deadline.