Zach Jarom: If The Playoffs Started Today...

Well isn't this a kick in the teeth post.

Hawks are pathetic team right now.

So Carolina got a 6th this year for eating $$687,500 retained on the ILYA LYUBUSHKIN deal, and Devils got a 4th for eating $2,250,000 in the Tanev deal.

..and we are not in them.

And what in Covid bubble did Jonathan Toews et, to take the team out off the Lottery by winning a series in the bubble?

Made himself more sick, and we drafted I slot #17 not on Reichel.

If the Panthers could flatten the Lightning, we draft# 17


We wouldn’t have to plant the tent pole with Hage because could the injured RD Adam Jiricek be there or could uber fast LW Trevor Connelly be there ?

Sorry, one track mind.

..and we are not in them.

And what in Covid bubble did Jonathan Toews et, to take the team out off the Lottery by winning a series in the bubble?

Made himself more sick, and we drafted I slot #17 not on Reichel.

If the Panthers could flatten the Lightning, we draft# 17


We wouldn’t have to plant the tent pole with Hage because could the injured RD Adam Jiricek be there or could uber fast LW Trevor Connelly be there ?

Sorry, one track mind.
- wiz1901

For the first round, my favorite combination of players right now is Celebrini and Jiricek.

My second favorite combination of players right now is Celebrini and Chernyshov.

My third favorite combination of players right now is Levshunov and Chernyshov.

Connelly is a non-starter IMO. No reason the Hawks - for all the turmoil they’ve recently faced - should be dabbling in a player with Connelly’s past.

So Carolina got a 6th this year for eating $$687,500 retained on the ILYA LYUBUSHKIN deal, and Devils got a 4th for eating $2,250,000 in the Tanev deal.
- wiz1901

NJ retained 1,125,000.

687K retention worth a 6th
1125K retention worth a 4th.

So a 2M retention worth a 2nd or 3rd?. Only problem is to retain that much a traded player needs a 8M AAV. 4M kept by original team, then 1/2 of that by the middleman. Don’t think any 8M players are being moved this TDL.

College hockey, Michigan at Minnesota 730pm central tonight on Big10 network.

College hockey, Michigan at Minnesota 730pm central tonight on Big10 network.
- boilermaker100

How many more games in the college hockey season?

How many more games in the college hockey season?
- Scott1977

Final weekend for the B1G, but the conference tournament starts next week. Probably MI vs ND first round I think I heard.

Can Slaggert and Nazar sign PTOs to get some NHL games, or would they have to burn a year off their contract?

Final weekend for the B1G, but the conference tournament starts next week. Probably MI vs ND first round I think I heard.

Can Slaggert and Nazar sign PTOs to get some NHL games, or would they have to burn a year off their contract?
- totem

I think the burning of the 1st year is negotiated with the player's ELC. So Slaggert and Nazar can sign after their season, play only a few games, and burn that 1st year.

As you said, Big10 conference tourney begins next week. 1st place team gets a bye. 2 plays 7, 3 plays 6, and 4 against 5, all best of three. Then #1 and the 3 series winners play a single elimination semi-final and the two winners go to a single elimination final game.

After the conference tourney the NCAA tournament starts. 1st week is 16 teams in four 4 team brackets. Then the Frozen Four the following week. The final game is April 13.

Hawks final game is April 18. ND would probably have to win the BIG10 tourney to get the automatic qualifier spot for the NCAA tourney. Michigan is on the bubble to go to the NCAA tourney. Might see Slaggert and Nazar (if he turns pro) by early April.

OMFG, I turned on the north Dakota vs Western Michigan game. North Dakota scores and the goal song is the same one as the UC. Just ate dinner and I might hurl.

Missed yesterday's blog. Buried in housework, work work and migraine aftershocks but that was an interesting stat on the Jones -> Bedard factor.

I know that kinda got beat like a dead horse but if you start to dig into other fun advanced metrics it's kind of interesting.

https://www.naturalstattr...p2=8477495&p3=0&p4=0&p5=0

This is 5v5:

Stuff like CF, FF and SF are all higher as a percentage with Jones and Bedard on the ice together.

BUT - expect goals and scoring chances for increase a bit when separated and high danger chances for and high danger goals for increase dramatically when they're away from each other. (for Bedard which is counter intuitive and an enigma which will line up with some of the Jones stuff I'm gonna post)

AND - thats with Bedards O-zone starts split about 50/50 away from Jones rather than 70/30 when with Jones which doesn't make a lot of sense.

The Hawks have given up 6 short handed goals which is bad but on the PP it's interesting that in 55 mins with no Jones and Bedard on the ice the team has 8 goals and in 102 mins the power play with Bedard and Jones together has 9 PP goals. Not a huge sample size but kinda seems like the pp is more efficient without Jones.

Also of note - Bedard only has 2 power play goals which seems a little silly with the shot he has (though he does have 11 assists). I get he's only option but kinda seems like that number should be higher.

I'll make a second post on Jones shortly but there's some interesting data there that maybe hasn't been looked at deep enough.

Michigan and Minnesota tied 2-2 after one. Nazar with 1 assist.

Also in the OHL, Gavin Hayes with two goals (34 on the season) and a helper in the Saulte Ste. Marie win.

So Reddit has become kind of my go to for product reviews and what stuff to buy. It seems like the only place that hasn't been infiltrated by bots. Usually there's a pretty decent consensus and good enough advice in the sub Reddits outside a few of the trolls.

Anyway - the posts from around the trade deadline look identical to the threads here:
- skates lots of minutes
- skates number one minutes
- skates real good
- puts up points
- doesn't do anything good though
- is severely overrated

Super interesting.

RE the overtime goal - I kinda think you walk that in and take that shot especially with the back end guy cheating. But if I'm Bedard I 100% want that puck and say please give me the puck next time.

Basically the eye test doesn't seem to match anything statistically. Not dissimilar to Lukas Riechal, though to less of an extreme, Jones is an enigma. He puts up points and eats minutes, carries the puck up the ice and makes safe breakout passes but doesn't do a whole lot to move the needle significantly one way or the other.

The interesting comment in the last blog was that Torts loved him so obviously he's a great defender. However - over his last 3 years in C-Bus, Torts lowered his playing time against elite competition by about 10% each year.

Disclaimer - I don't think him being on the team is a huge detriment unless he is still spouting the conspiracy nonsense he was tweeting about during covid. Either the deal will be mostly run out when they're getting good and it won't matter or his playing time will be reduced, he'll throw a fit and they can probably move him at that point. So it's pretty moot but a very interesting discussion that can pertain to any player and how "elite" players should be looked at and measured.

However - as he declines physically, the things that he does poorly are going to be exacerbated, especially how it relates to his already poor gap control as well as his ability to skate out of trouble - and his value is really gonna crater.

This is a tremendous article that puts together the visual and the analytical. The summary is that in terms of outcomes Jones is slightly above average but because the physical tools make him extremely noticeable he's one of those guys that looks more productive than they actually are. Also questions his hockey IQ and decision making in the offensive zone which may explain why Bedard doesn't see the puck and why Kane yelled at him and probably on more than that one occasion.

Long but 100% worth a read: https://jfresh.substack.c...seth-jones-actually-elite

Key excerpts:

Seth Jones’ individual impact on his team’s ability to generate offensive chances and prevent scoring chances against has been average at best during his time in Columbus.[/I]

So if a key component of the reason you think Jones is top-5 in the league is his tough deployment in terms of minutes and competition, you should keep all of this in mind. You should also ask yourself why you don’t consider Thomas Chabot to be elite as well[/I]

Jones’ talent on the breakout leads to eye-popping zone entries, and yet his teams consistently get fewer and lower-quality scoring chances when he’s on the ice.
[/I]

His playmaking ability was occasionally apparent, but far too often he took very low-percentage shots that were either blocked or easily saved. When he completed passes they were almost always to his defensive partner or a player on the perimeter. [/I]

It also goes into his skating and since he isn't great on his edges or going backwards his gap control is not very good so he doesn't really fit on a team looking to break up plays in the neutral zone like the 2010 Blackhawks, for example.

These two are shorter and touch on some of the same things and the leafs one is kind of funny because of how irritated the write seems to be to have to even address it.

https://thehockeywriters....-wary-trading-seth-jones/

https://theleafsnation.co...-would-be-a-terrible-idea

Michigan and Minnesota tied 2-2 after one. Nazar with 1 assist.

Also in the OHL, Gavin Hayes with two goals (34 on the season) and a helper in the Saulte Ste. Marie win.
- boilermaker100

Oliver Moore with a PP goal!!!!

Ollie Moore makes it 3-2 MN at MI, 1/2 way thru the 2nd. http://onhockey.tv/index....place=sawlive&channel=tvh

Edit: This game is at MN.

Oliver Moore with a PP goal!!!!
- dahawks8819

No doubt to my eye Rinzel has taken a step, matter of how much... Was so happy he made the USA WJC squad cuz the speed, skill, pressure was greater than anything he has ever seen and it looks like he's taken a step cuz of that WJC.

Kid's feet are much lighter this yr, more poised.

One thing we can all agree on is that Seth Jones's agent should be in the NHL Agent Hall of Fame for the deal he got from the Hawks. Jones has a below average shot and can't beat anybody one on one. This season he is trying to do far too much with the puck because he can see that there is no chance the forwards are going to accomplish much. Nobody would look good playing the top line minutes on this team this season.

However, what is getting worse than watching Jones is watching the Hawks lose and get beat up. Can't Davidson pick up one guy who is tough? Johnson and Tinordi don't impress. Foligno can tie guys up but doesn't finish anyone off.

Ok the Hawks are tanking for another 5'11" forward but good god please sign a 4th line ICBM before this team is relegated to the AHL.

Rinzel with an assist on Minnesota's 4th goal. Now 4-2.

Ollie Moore makes it 3-2 MN at MI, 1/2 way thru the 2nd. http://onhockey.tv/index....place=sawlive&channel=tvh

Edit: This game is at MN.
- Mr Ricochet

And Rinzel with an assist on MN 4th goal!!!!

Rinzel with an assist on Minnesota's 4th goal. Now 4-2.
- boilermaker100

And Oliver Moore with his 2nd PP goal of the period!!!!

And Rinzel with an assist on MN 4th goal!!!!
- dahawks8819

And Moore with another goal 5-2 Minnesota.

Ollie Moore another one, 5-2, MN.

Ollie Moore another one, 5-2, MN.
- Mr Ricochet

This game is a lot better than last night's Hawk game.