Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Hartnell's Down Season in Context, Memorial Cup

One thing you can NEVER say about Scott Hartnell is that he's player who doesn't care.

Completely agree. Scottie Haircut should be fine next year.

Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Hartnell's Down Season in Context, Memorial Cup
- bmeltzer

What can we expect from Leier? Potentially full time NHLer?

What can we expect from Leier? Potentially full time NHLer?
- sarmen25

Potential two-way checking liner with good speed and some grit despite being a little undersized. I'd liken his offensive upside and playing style to Max Talbot.

I have no problem with Hartnell's cap hit, it's the length of the extension that scares me.

Hartnell will be fine.

Personally, I am willing to write off this past season for Hartnell.

That's pretty much my feeling for just about everyone on the team this past season.

Completely agree. Scottie Haircut should be fine next year.
- johndewar

I think it depends on what 'fine' means when it comes to Hartnell.

Sure, he'll probably bounce back to being a low-mid 20-goal scorer assuming he meets his career avgs for shooting-% (about .125 as a Flyer) and SOG (about 180-190 as a Flyer). The funny thing is he actually was on pace to hit 20 over an 82-game season this past year, so it's not like he lost his goalscoring mojo completely.

But will he get back into the 30-37 goal range? Highly unlikely.

I think it depends on what 'fine' means when it comes to Hartnell.

Sure, he'll probably bounce back to being a low-mid 20-goal scorer assuming he meets his career avgs for shooting-% (about .125 as a Flyer) and SOG (about 180-190 as a Flyer). The funny thing is he actually was on pace to hit 20 over an 82-game season this past year, so it's not like he lost his goalscoring mojo completely.

But will he get back into the 30-37 goal range? Highly unlikely.
- Tomahawk

Scott Hartnell has been a part of, arguably, three of the best lines the Flyers have had in the past 5 or so years.

I have no doubt he'll be back in form next year. How that translates into numbers will probably depend on his linemates to a certain degree.

Scott Hartnell has been a part of, arguably, three of the best lines the Flyers have had in the past 5 or so years.
- johndewar

Hartnell-Giroux-Jagr, Hartnell-Briere-Leino, Hartnell-Carter-Lupul?

I think it depends on what 'fine' means when it comes to Hartnell.

Sure, he'll probably bounce back to being a low-mid 20-goal scorer assuming he meets his career avgs for shooting-% (about .125 as a Flyer) and SOG (about 180-190 as a Flyer). The funny thing is he actually was on pace to hit 20 over an 82-game season this past year, so it's not like he lost his goalscoring mojo completely.

But will he get back into the 30-37 goal range? Highly unlikely.
- Tomahawk

Depends if he can amass 16 PP goals again or not.

I think it depends on what 'fine' means when it comes to Hartnell.

Sure, he'll probably bounce back to being a low-mid 20-goal scorer assuming he meets his career avgs for shooting-% (about .125 as a Flyer) and SOG (about 180-190 as a Flyer). The funny thing is he actually was on pace to hit 20 over an 82-game season this past year, so it's not like he lost his goalscoring mojo completely.

But will he get back into the 30-37 goal range? Highly unlikely.
- Tomahawk

If he plays with Giroux and Voracek. Along with top unit PP ice time. 30 goals is a very realistic number for Hartnell.

He had a very poor offensive Season this last Season, and scored at a 20 goal pace. So if he comes into the Season in better shape, stays healthy. 30 goals is a reasonable expectation.

Hartnell-Giroux-Jagr, Hartnell-Briere-Leino, Hartnell-Carter-Lupul?
- Tomahawk

Yep.

Hartsy is a guy not worry about. I agree with Bill, I got the same sentiment from Hartnell's comments after the season. He'll be primed and ready for next season.

Depends if he can amass 16 PP goals again or not.
- bradleyc4

Even as awful as this team was this year, they had a pretty good PP.

Depends if he can amass 16 PP goals again or not.
- bradleyc4

2011-12: 16/37 PP goals - 43%
2012-13: 4/8 PP goals - 50%

Flyers PP actually improved in % in 2012-13 with Hartnell's PP TOI remaining relatively constant. Not sure the PP was the reason why his numbers dipped.

I suspect his output for the upcoming season will depend more on if he can replicate both career highs in SH% and SOG... judging by his avgs as a Flyer and the wide swings in variance he usually experiences from year, I'd have a tough time putting money on him being counted on as a perennial 30-37 goal scorer.

2011-12: 16/37 PP goals - 43%
2012-13: 4/8 PP goals - 50%

Flyers PP actually improved in % in 2012-13 with Hartnell's PP TOI remaining relatively constant. Not sure the PP was the reason why his numbers dipped.

I suspect his output for the upcoming season will depend more on if he can replicate both career highs in SH% and SOG... judging by his avgs as a Flyer and the wide swings in variance he usually experiences from year, I'd have a tough time putting money on him being counted on as a perennial 30-37 goal scorer.
- Tomahawk

If "Scott Hartnell will score 35 goals next year" were a stock, I wouldn't buy it (based on the reasons you laid out).

But I wouldn't exactly bet against him either depending on linemates and experiencing good health.

2011-12: 16/37 PP goals - 43%
2012-13: 4/8 PP goals - 50%

Flyers PP actually improved in % in 2012-13 with Hartnell's PP TOI remaining relatively constant. Not sure the PP was the reason why his numbers dipped.

I suspect his output for the upcoming season will depend more on if he can replicate both career highs in SH% and SOG... judging by his avgs as a Flyer and the wide swings in variance he usually experiences from year, I'd have a tough time putting money on him being counted on as a perennial 30-37 goal scorer.
- Tomahawk

Most players swings in their percentages. Difficult to keep that at a (near) constant rate.

25-30 goals for Hartnell is a very reasonable expectation for 70+ games.

Are situation-based stats available for the PP? Seems to me the PP failed miserably when it mattered most (in close games where a goal was needed, especially in the third period), but maybe my perception is wrong.

Are situation-based stats available for the PP? Seems to me the PP failed miserably when it mattered most (in close games where a goal was needed, especially in the third period), but maybe my perception is wrong.
- Scoob

I'd like to see these stats too, but when a team is as bad in 5-on-5 play as this Flyers team was (and they were terrible, if not worst in the league, statistically), it exacerbated any failure on the power play, no matter what point of the game.

Most players swings in their percentages. Difficult to keep that at a (near) constant rate.
- bradleyc4

Yeah, I agree. SH%, especially, is luck-driven and prone to variance.

But just like with Carter after his 47-goal outburst, it's easy for expectations to get out of whack after an eye-popping single-season performance where a lot of variables had to be aligned just right.

Yeah, I agree. SH%, especially, is luck-driven and prone to variance.

But just like with Carter after his 47-goal outburst, it's easy for expectations to get out of whack after an eye-popping single-season performance where a lot of variables had to be aligned just right.
- Tomahawk

Completely agree. Look at Jordan Eberle's numbers this year. Is he the next superstar or due for some regression next season?

Completely agree. Look at Jordan Eberle's numbers this year. Is he the next superstar or due for some regression next season?
- bradleyc4

Yeah, nobody outside of Stamkos is going to be shooting anywhere near 18-19% consistently... giving out a $36M extension based on a statistical outlier of a season is one of the dumbest things a team can do... which is why so many of us were upset with the JvR and Hartnell extensions, but so glad when they let Leino walk.

Yeah, nobody outside of Stamkos is going to be shooting anywhere near 18-19% consistently... giving out a $36M extension based on a statistical outlier of a season is one of the dumbest things a team can do... which is why so many of us were upset with the JvR and Hartnell extensions, but so glad when they let Leino walk.
- Tomahawk

That's why it's fair to expect a bit of a downturn in Voracek's numbers next season. At least his goals per game #. Very unlikely he scores at 17% again.