Ryan Wilson: Book Review: Hockey Prospectus 2013-2014 Book review for Hockey Prospectus 2013-2014

You're getting very good at this stuff

Glass was in the bottom 15 players in the league. That's a stat I can trust. Interesting that Niskanen came in quite positive.

What do the sizes of the circles represent in those graphs?

Ah, Mr Glass is at the bottom. Easy to believe in that, Gunner.

Glass was in the bottom 15 players in the league. That's a stat I can trust. Interesting that Niskanen came in quite positive.

What do the sizes of the circles represent in those graphs?
- cygnus41

"The charts are completed with bubbles that measure each player’s total cap efficiency using Goals Versus Salary (GVS). A big shaded bubble represents the kind of tremendous value that can help a salary cap era team to overachieve, whereas a big white bubble indicates an anchor that is using up cap space that would be best invested elsewhere."

Do the Vukota projections take into account the player's ability to bodyslam someone?

Do the Vukota projections take into account the player's ability to bodyslam someone?
- jmatchett383

This is important.

Do the Vukota projections take into account the player's ability to bodyslam someone?
- jmatchett383

http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=68

http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=68
- Ryan_Wilson

ctrl + f "bodyslam"

not found

Meh these numbers hurt my head. I'll stick to my eye test.

Meh these numbers hurt my head. I'll stick to my eye test.
- dbell646

Ill always use mine as well, everybody should. The numbers just support it

Meh these numbers hurt my head. I'll stick to my eye test.
- dbell646

My eyes hurt whenever I watch Tanner Glass in a Pens jersey.

My eyes hurt whenever I watch Tanner Glass in a Pens jersey.
- madmike71

And the numbers support that! Haha

Ill always use mine as well, everybody should. The numbers just support it
- Ryan_Wilson

Has there been a situation for you where the 2 have conflicted? Not sure where TK is on those charts but I always thought he was very effective player

Has there been a situation for you where the 2 have conflicted? Not sure where TK is on those charts but I always thought he was very effective player
- dbell646

Alex Semin. Most time if there is a difference it is not a large one, Semin's numbers did not synch up to what my perception was.

Does that mean I was wrong? Most likely, but what I can do moving forward is to try and view that player in a different light and see what happens.

The human element is always a variable that will not appear in statistical form and is something to gauge. Although it makes it tough when you are not near the team on a personal level.

"The charts are completed with bubbles that measure each player’s total cap efficiency using Goals Versus Salary (GVS). A big shaded bubble represents the kind of tremendous value that can help a salary cap era team to overachieve, whereas a big white bubble indicates an anchor that is using up cap space that would be best invested elsewhere."
- Ryan_Wilson

I don't like a chart based on "goals vs salary", it would give you the wrong impression on people like sutter, vitale, Adams, orpik, jokinen and other important players. That's like saying since he doesn't score a lot of goals, he's not worth anything. Not a big fan of these charts. You watch the game and base your evaluation on what you see and how they play their position and role on the team

I don't like a chart based on "goals vs salary", it would give you the wrong impression on people like sutter, vitale, Adams, orpik, jokinen and other important players. That's like saying since he doesn't score a lot of goals, he's not worth anything. Not a big fan of these charts. You watch the game and base your evaluation on what you see and how they play their position and role on the team
- drummer829

You aren't supposed to use just one chart to come to a conclusion. You would combine the player usage chart with the cap efficiency chart in order to further understand the data from each.

One chart on its own is not supposed to serve as some kind of "god particle" answer to everything.

You aren't supposed to use just one chart to come to a conclusion. You would combine the player usage chart with the cap efficiency chart in order to further understand the data from each.

One chart on its own is not supposed to serve as some kind of "god particle" answer to everything.
- Ryan_Wilson

But the fact is statistics aren't for every player, especially defensive players

ctrl + f "bodyslam"

not found


- BulliesPhan87

I'm glad at least 1 person got it.

But the fact is statistics aren't for every player, especially defensive players
- drummer829

How does puck possession and quality of competition not apply to a defensive player (IE player usage chart)? Additionally there is a defense specific GVT metric available.

From Pens' site:
Pittsburgh Penguins at Chicago Blackhawks
Sept. 19, 2013 - Preseason Game 3 at United Center

PENGUINS LINEUP

Goaltenders
37 JEFF ZATKOFF – G
92 TOMAS VOKOUN – G

Position Players
2 MATT NISKANEN – D
5 DERYK ENGELLAND – D
12 CHUCK KOBASEW – F
14 CHRIS KUNITZ – F
16 BRANDON SUTTER – F
17 DUSTIN JEFFREY – F
19 BEAU BENNETT – F
22 MATT D’AGOSTINI – F
24 BRENDAN MIKKELSON – D
33 STEVE MACINTYRE – F
38 ZACH SILL – F
41 ROBERT BORTUZZO – D
45 ADAM PAYERL – F
46 JOE VITALE – F
47 SIMON DESPRES – D
51 DERRICK POULIOT – D
55 PHILIP SAMUELSSON – D
59 JAYSON MEGNA – F
87 SIDNEY CROSBY – F

Interesting that Crosby and Kunitz are dressing, but not Dupuis. Looks like Bennett will get to play with Sid?

From Pens' site:
Pittsburgh Penguins at Chicago Blackhawks
Sept. 19, 2013 - Preseason Game 3 at United Center

PENGUINS LINEUP

Interesting that Crosby and Kunitz are dressing, but not Dupuis. Looks like Bennett will get to play with Sid?
- rival22

Nice. Although I wouldn't break their line up. I would keep Bennett with Malkin. However, it's preseason and that's what it is for, to play around with some stuff.

Although MacIntyre seeing any game action is beyond frustrating. Just get rid of the guy.

How does puck possession and quality of competition not apply to a defensive player (IE player usage chart)? Additionally there is a defense specific GVT metric available.
- Ryan_Wilson

I think these numbers help GM's make decisions. For us fans it is another stat. Although, agreed they are a more accurate stat. Interesting to compare Malkin and Crosby.

All these numbers and advanced statistics just seem like a lot of hocus pocus. I agree with those about the "eye test." There is also the "gut" test. Sometimes you just get a feeling when watching a game. Hockey has a lot of that in it, part of why I love it so much. How many of us can just feel the pens are about to score a goal, or have on scored against them? My hand is up. I understand the idea behind this level of analysis of the game but it also bothers me. Like looking at a piece of artwork and having someone explain all the technical ways the painter mixed the paint and applied the brush etc etc when all you want to do is enjoy the painting... maybe not the best example but you get my drift. So more power to those rocking the advanced stats... it's not for me though

All these numbers and advanced statistics just seem like a lot of hocus pocus. I agree with those about the "eye test." There is also the "gut" test. Sometimes you just get a feeling when watching a game. Hockey has a lot of that in it, part of why I love it so much. How many of us can just feel the pens are about to score a goal, or have on scored against them? My hand is up. I understand the idea behind this level of analysis of the game but it also bothers me. Like looking at a piece of artwork and having someone explain all the technical ways the painter mixed the paint and applied the brush etc etc when all you want to do is enjoy the painting... maybe not the best example but you get my drift. So more power to those rocking the advanced stats... it's not for me though
- ChrisMS

This is the biggest misconception about stats. You aren't supposed to solely rely on them. Nobody is telling anybody to choose stats over the eye test, or eye test over stats. If you aren't using both you aren't doing it right.

Reminds me of the fools who argue over if The Wire is better than Breaking Bad. Who gives a crap, they are both great. I watch them both, enjoy them both.

The truth is you have a vocal minority on each side arguing aggressively for one side of the stat argument over the other,when in fact the majority of people understand that it is shades of gray and are open to the learning process.