Ryan Wilson: Figuring Out the 2011 Hart Trophy With Analytics Figuring Out the 2011 Hart Trophy With Analytics

I can hear the sobbing from here.

Ryan Wilson: Figuring Out the 2011 Hart Trophy With Analytics
Figuring Out the 2011 Hart Trophy With Analytics
- Ryan_Wilson

This year was interesting because Ovi and Crosby weren't involved.

Definitely a dud of a year.

Ryan,

This is an interesting study. However, I always saw these analytics as a chicken or egg thing. Did he win because he had the good analytics, or did he have the good analytics because he won. I'm sure I'm not expressing this well, so please allow me to use a different example.

In the recent Flyers first-round playoff loss, a friend of mine who's a stat head showed me a chart showing the possession numbers of our forwards which were not impressive and said, "This is why we lost." I argued that the numbers were not why we lost, they just mirrored the general play shown on the ice. It seems like these advanced stat ratings are basically just confirmation of things that can be gained from casual observation and are a reflection of a player as opposed to a full assessment of a player.

I'm sure this was overly confusing. In closing, this was an enjoyable read.

NUCK FANS!

ANOTHER SEDIN ATTACK

The only thing about this is that this was the season that if Crosby had finished the year he would have walked away with the Hart and Art Ross. 66 points in 41 games until the Winter Classic.

NUCK FANS!

ANOTHER SEDIN ATTACK




- AdamFrench

Its because they are great players but IMO aren't spectacular. As a flames fan I naturally hate them though. I'm bias.

Ryan,

This is an interesting study. However, I always saw these analytics as a chicken or egg thing. Did he win because he had the good analytics, or did he have the good analytics because he won. I'm sure I'm not expressing this well, so please allow me to use a different example.

In the recent Flyers first-round playoff loss, a friend of mine who's a stat head showed me a chart showing the possession numbers of our forwards which were not impressive and said, "This is why we lost." I argued that the numbers were not why we lost, they just mirrored the general play shown on the ice. It seems like these advanced stat ratings are basically just confirmation of things that can be gained from casual observation and are a reflection of a player as opposed to a full assessment of a player.

I'm sure this was overly confusing. In closing, this was an enjoyable read.
- jmatchett383

I look at stats this way...

The stats tell you something but not everything. They should be used to direct your focus on deeper dives to find true answers.

In an NHL sense, it should be used to drive deeper film analysis, player discussion, things to focus on, etc..

Simply looking at these few statistics to determine the true MVP from a historical sense is good for discussion but doesn't provide much beyond that.

NUCK FANS!

ANOTHER SEDIN ATTACK




- AdamFrench

Ryan,

This is an interesting study. However, I always saw these analytics as a chicken or egg thing. Did he win because he had the good analytics, or did he have the good analytics because he won. I'm sure I'm not expressing this well, so please allow me to use a different example.

In the recent Flyers first-round playoff loss, a friend of mine who's a stat head showed me a chart showing the possession numbers of our forwards which were not impressive and said, "This is why we lost." I argued that the numbers were not why we lost, they just mirrored the general play shown on the ice. It seems like these advanced stat ratings are basically just confirmation of things that can be gained from casual observation and are a reflection of a player as opposed to a full assessment of a player.

I'm sure this was overly confusing. In closing, this was an enjoyable read.
- jmatchett383

Hockey is a very complicated, fast sport that relies on a lot of luck and other things. It's orchestrated chaos. No one uses these measurements as the end all, be all, but these measures have been proven to correlate to winning.

At the end of the day, no matter your role, if your line is generating shots and essentially playing in their own offensive end, they are playing hockey right. Fenclose% is a pretty accurate depiction of how one plays when the game matters.

It is worth adding that no forward on the Ducks had a Fenclose above 50% in the 2010-2011 season.

- Ryan_Wilson

So you're saying that Perry won in spite of Carlyle's poopty system and by deduction, Kessel is the likely winner in 2015.

Ryan,

This is an interesting study. However, I always saw these analytics as a chicken or egg thing. Did he win because he had the good analytics, or did he have the good analytics because he won. I'm sure I'm not expressing this well, so please allow me to use a different example.

In the recent Flyers first-round playoff loss, a friend of mine who's a stat head showed me a chart showing the possession numbers of our forwards which were not impressive and said, "This is why we lost." I argued that the numbers were not why we lost, they just mirrored the general play shown on the ice. It seems like these advanced stat ratings are basically just confirmation of things that can be gained from casual observation and are a reflection of a player as opposed to a full assessment of a player.

I'm sure this was overly confusing. In closing, this was an enjoyable read.
- jmatchett383

This ranks right up, and next to, algebra for me. Well done!

Ryan,

This is an interesting study. However, I always saw these analytics as a chicken or egg thing. Did he win because he had the good analytics, or did he have the good analytics because he won. I'm sure I'm not expressing this well, so please allow me to use a different example.

In the recent Flyers first-round playoff loss, a friend of mine who's a stat head showed me a chart showing the possession numbers of our forwards which were not impressive and said, "This is why we lost." I argued that the numbers were not why we lost, they just mirrored the general play shown on the ice. It seems like these advanced stat ratings are basically just confirmation of things that can be gained from casual observation and are a reflection of a player as opposed to a full assessment of a player.

I'm sure this was overly confusing. In closing, this was an enjoyable read.
- jmatchett383

They can often be misleading when looking specifically at an individual number moving forward. It's not always going to be an accurate predictor, but when a number reaches the extreme end of a spectrum, it's telling.

They ARE, however, valuable in looking at past results. Seeing the numbers after the fact can lead to deeper discussions of "Did we see this? why didn't we see this during the game?" If it helps you to focus on a specfic part of the game that you can improve, it's a win.

Having poor Corsi numbers doesn't necessarily mean one is a bad player, but if it's consistantly poor it means there's probably something going wrong there. Sometimes it's correctable by simply changing the way the player is used. Sometimes the guy just stinks. Either way, being mindful of possession stats changes the way you feel the flow of a game and you begin to recognize trends yuou otherwise may not have noticed.

Why not just use zone-adjusted Fenwick/Corsi(relative) and look at QOC in a separate chart?


IMO you should also look at ES production per 60 mins as well.

NUCK FANS!

ANOTHER SEDIN ATTACK




- AdamFrench

is it hockey season yet?

YAWN! Scuderi get moved yet?

Neal had very similar #'s to Perry the last 3 seasons, not saying he deserves an award, just that Perry gets $8+/yr. Curious to see what Ryan gets next yr.

Whoever had him in 5th place should be banned from voting. How does that even happen?

YAWN! Scuderi get moved yet?

Neal had very similar #'s to Perry the last 3 seasons, not saying he deserves an award, just that Perry gets $8+/yr. Curious to see what Ryan gets next yr.
- sammy87

Scuderi get moved? No way, didn't you hear in his interview he blamed the injury and is vowing to be better next season. Gee I can't wait to see that....

I think we will give Ryan $7.5M, and yes I said "we" because I think the Pens will seriously pursue him.

Nice work, Gunner.

is it hockey season yet?
- BulliesPhan87

THIS

The only thing about this is that this was the season that if Crosby had finished the year he would have walked away with the Hart and Art Ross. 66 points in 41 games until the Winter Classic.
- Ben37

Indeed. This was supposed to be the year Crosby should've won it. He was by far the best player in the world.

Ryan,

This is an interesting study. However, I always saw these analytics as a chicken or egg thing. Did he win because he had the good analytics, or did he have the good analytics because he won. I'm sure I'm not expressing this well, so please allow me to use a different example.

In the recent Flyers first-round playoff loss, a friend of mine who's a stat head showed me a chart showing the possession numbers of our forwards which were not impressive and said, "This is why we lost." I argued that the numbers were not why we lost, they just mirrored the general play shown on the ice. It seems like these advanced stat ratings are basically just confirmation of things that can be gained from casual observation and are a reflection of a player as opposed to a full assessment of a player.

I'm sure this was overly confusing. In closing, this was an enjoyable read.
- jmatchett383

Pretty much. Good teams have good possession numbers, bad teams have bad possession numbers.

I don't need a stat sheet to tell me Nick Leddy isn't a very good defensemen yet all of his advanced numbers look pretty good.

Same with Shea Weber, I don't need advanced stats to tell me he's one of the top 3 defensemen in this league, yet a lot of his 5 on 5 numbers are pedestrian.

NUCK FANS!

ANOTHER SEDIN ATTACK




- AdamFrench

So, who are the Sedin's in the video?

Heath?

The Redcoats?

The horse?

Riggs?

Scuderi get moved? No way, didn't you hear in his interview he blamed the injury and is vowing to be better next season. Gee I can't wait to see that....

I think we will give Ryan $7.5M, and yes I said "we" because I think the Pens will seriously pursue him.
- YouMeAndDupuis9

And I think he'll seriously pull a Hamhuis and sign with Philly.