Todd Cordell: Calgary Flames: Why Jiri Hudler Will Come Down To Earth In 2015-16

Monahan and Gaudreau will continue to produce. I can see Hudler reaching another 70 pt season as long as they all remain healthy.

While I think that Hudler will see some regression, I don't expect it to drop back to the 55 point level, as that 55 point level was put up playing second line duty with inferior linemates...

As long as Huds sees top line time with Monahan and Gaudreau, I think he'll be good for 60-65 points with a shooting percentage closer to 15%, and a more reasonable IPP.

I still see Hudler in the 70-75 point range and maybe more if he plays all 82 games. He is the catalyst to that big line and the power play. Give the man credit where it is due as he is finally getting a chance to be top six. In Detroit he was always behind Datsyuk and Zetterberg. I really like Hudler.

To funny the day before I seen this article suggesting he's highly underrated

http://www.todaysslapshot...errated-player-in-hockey/

I think he will hover around 60pts this year. I see more offensive being distributed more evenly now with a full season of Bennett and Gio, plus the additions of Hamilton, and Frolik.

I think he will hover around 60pts this year. I see more offensive being distributed more evenly now with a full season of Bennett and Gio, plus the additions of Hamilton, and Frolik.
- DDM-Coga

Exactly. Factor in Frolik/Bennett full time with expected regression and that sounds about right

I can see some drop off. The top line was on fire for the second half of the season, with all three getting points on goals regularly. But the biggest reason may be on account of some line juggling, with Hudler getting playing time on a line with Bennett.

Hudler is a skilled player and will still get his points, as the team builds towards having 2 effective scoring lines.

I don't think many people think of hudler as a consistent top 10 league scorer. That said if his line is getting every opportunity to be successful again next year 65 is certainly an achievable target. I think all 3 can consistently get to 60 points.

There were a couple factors that caused his totals to rise last year. But I think he really enjoyed playing. Hopefully he comes in with the same fire and can repeat what he did last year. Also gotta think if we can get another line that can score some goals they might not always be facing the tougher competition.

Its probably the best thing to have him not repeat that production so his value isnt super inflated coming into a new contract. If hes at the same clip next season you wont trade him bc hes lighting the lamp but it woud be crazy to sign him over 6.5m or something like that bc he has back to back 70pt seasons.

Out of my own curiosity, who were Hudler's usual linemates in 2013-2014

Im expecting Johnny and Mony to be taking another step forward offensively and Hudler was so important to their production last year.

I haven't seen any evidence pointing in the direction of Hudler getting worse as a player.

If anything, wouldn't we expect more from him now that the first line will be established from the start of the season?

If we expect Johnny to get +70 points this year, its hard to imagine the catalyst of his line getting 55.

Out of my own curiosity, who were Hudler's usual linemates in 2013-2014
- freelancer

Pretty sure there weren't any consistent lines that year ...his centers would have been backs, cammy, and Stajan ...Monahan was primarily a winger/center

If they do not extend him before the start of the regular season I expect him to put up similar numbers or better. Players tend to play at a higher level in a contract year.

Im expecting Johnny and Mony to be taking another step forward offensively and Hudler was so important to their production last year.

I haven't seen any evidence pointing in the direction of Hudler getting worse as a player.

If anything, wouldn't we expect more from him now that the first line will be established from the start of the season?

If we expect Johnny to get +70 points this year, its hard to imagine the catalyst of his line getting 55.
- fry

Todd spoke to the two main factors that point to unsustainability. An unusuably high shooting percentage, and his percentage of points when he was on the ice. If both of those numbers fall back to his career averages, he likely won't score as many goals without getting more shots on net, and he likely won't directly contribute to the same percentage of points as he did last year.

The way for him to replicate his point production last year would be by having his line produce more scoring chances through better possession numbers.

If you're going to go the advanced stats route, don't take the lazy way out. You have no mention of how the other players he's played with affected his numbers or how much of his success was due to Monahan and Gaudreau.

Unless Monahan and Gaudreau regress or they decide to split that line up, there's zero reason to believe Hudler can't duplicate what he did last year.

If you're going to go the advanced stats route, don't take the lazy way out. You have no mention of how the other players he's played with affected his numbers or how much of his success was due to Monahan and Gaudreau.

Unless Monahan and Gaudreau regress or they decide to split that line up, there's zero reason to believe Hudler can't duplicate what he did last year.
- Hunkulese

They'll have to improve pretty significantly as a line to duplicate last year's output. More scoring chances can definitely outweigh reduced shooting percentages, but it's probably not reasonable to expect 20% of Hudler's shots to find the back of the net again this year.

They'll have to improve pretty significantly as a line to duplicate last year's output. More scoring chances can definitely outweigh reduced shooting percentages, but it's probably not reasonable to expect 20% of Hudler's shots to find the back of the net again this year.
- jtommyt

Perhaps playing an entire season together will be better than just 1/4 of it ....maybe Hudler will have more points this year

They'll have to improve pretty significantly as a line to duplicate last year's output. More scoring chances can definitely outweigh reduced shooting percentages, but it's probably not reasonable to expect 20% of Hudler's shots to find the back of the net again this year.
- jtommyt

I don't see why it's unreasonable. Hudler isn't looking to shoot first and tends to shoot when he has a good chance of scoring. If Monahan and Gaudreau keep improving it's going to lead to a lot of great chances for Hudler.

If you're going to go the advanced stats route, don't take the lazy way out. You have no mention of how the other players he's played with affected his numbers or how much of his success was due to Monahan and Gaudreau.

Unless Monahan and Gaudreau regress or they decide to split that line up, there's zero reason to believe Hudler can't duplicate what he did last year.
- Hunkulese

Hudler is the key guy on the pp set up and it is a very dangerous powerplay. Hudler reminds me of Ray Whitney, getting better with age and his skill set is off the charts. If he stays healthy I really see another 70+ point season.

Todd spoke to the two main factors that point to unsustainability. An unusuably high shooting percentage, and his percentage of points when he was on the ice. If both of those numbers fall back to his career averages, he likely won't score as many goals without getting more shots on net, and he likely won't directly contribute to the same percentage of points as he did last year.

The way for him to replicate his point production last year would be by having his line produce more scoring chances through better possession numbers.
- jtommyt

So you're on the "unsustainability" train now? It should be reminded that our record last year was better with a low average corsi. During our losing streak we saw an above average corsi for our team.

I don't need you to restate the points made in the blog; I did in fact read the entirety of it. My points were valid yet undressed by your post.

It should maybe noted that his "career average" isn't playing on a solidified 1st line, isn't getting top powerplay minutes and isn't playing with Johnny Gaudreau.

We really think he'll drop down to 55 points because "last season was lucky" and "he's 31"?

Todd, sometimes I wonder how many Flames games you caught last year. He was the straw that stirred the drink on the first line and our team MVP over 82 games. Watch through his highlights; a lot of goals we would have no business scoring without some maneuver of his, not as much "puck luck".

So you're on the "unsustainability" train now? It should be reminded that our record last year was better with a low average corsi. During our losing streak we saw an above average corsi for our team.

I don't need you to restate the points made in the blog; I did in fact read the entirety of it. My points were valid yet undressed by your post.

It should maybe noted that his "career average" isn't playing on a solidified 1st line, isn't getting top powerplay minutes and isn't playing with Johnny Gaudreau.

We really think he'll drop down to 55 points because "last season was lucky" and "he's 31"?

Todd, sometimes I wonder how many Flames games you caught last year. He was the straw that stirred the drink on the first line and our team MVP over 82 games. Watch through his highlights; a lot of goals we would have no business scoring without some maneuver of his, not as much "puck luck".
- fry

No... but I understand that luck played a big part in last year's success. I think we can overcome regression through improved play (both from addition and also from improvement by the young kids). Hudler could put up 70 points again but he'll need to do it based on additional scoring chances.

Keep the top line together and he could.

Debbie downer!!