Ryan Wilson: Who Should My Team Protect In The Expansion Draft: Part 1 Who Should My Team Protect In The Expansion Draft: Part 1

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I think you missed on AZ. Tinordi is a waste of a protection slot and you aren't protecting guys like Martinook who is at least a proven NHLer at this point.

Ryan Wilson: Who Should My Team Protect In The Expansion Draft: Part 1
Who Should My Team Protect In The Expansion Draft: Part 1
- Ryan_Wilson

You missed Ferland. Depending how this year goes, either Ferland or Shinkaruk are going to have to be exposed. Although Jokipakka on D is going to be exposed as well & he might be the target for Vegas.

Anaheim leaving Rakell unprotected would be universally foolish. I think ANA should first attempt to move one of Fowler, Lindholm or even Despres if they can.

Rakell is a 23 yr old center who just posted 20/23/43. He had his breakout year. He's going to be one heck of a player who can play wing and 3rd line center.

ANA has enough on defense to spare one of them at the expense of protecting a promising young forward (something they're low on).

Rackel > Dinkleberg

Las Vegas is going to take Malcolm Subban from Boston. They would be foolish not to.

Las Vegas is going to take Malcolm Subban from Boston. They would be foolish not to.
- Falon

This.

Was thinking the same thing about exposing Rackell, he's easily taken.

Subban would be a lot to give up. I wander if they can flip him for a 1st before the draft to a team in need of a goalie. If best offer is a 2nd round pick then maybe just let him get claimed.

Subban would be a lot to give up. I wander if they can flip him for a 1st before the draft to a team in need of a goalie. If best offer is a 2nd round pick then maybe just let him get claimed.
- sditulli

No one is going to give a first round pick for a goalie prospect that's had a negligible amount of NHL experience.

One would think there will be a ton of movement after next season. Teams will be doing all they can to get something for players instead of just letting Vegas take them for nothing. Should be pretty interesting.

I'm still struggling with this idea that there will be a "gentleman's agreement" to protect pending UFA players by not resigning them until after the expansion draft, the NHL's goal is to afford LV every opportunity to be competitive from day 1 which means they are going to want LV to have access to as much talent as possible, if we can see the loophole I'm sure they can too and I won't be surprised if they make it as risky as possible for teams to go that route. My guess is that the easiest way to accomplish this is to schedule the draft for after the open talking period that way all teams including LV can negotiate with the UFAs before the expansion draft.

Ryan Wilson: Who Should My Team Protect In The Expansion Draft: Part 1
Who Should My Team Protect In The Expansion Draft: Part 1
- Ryan_Wilson

Interesting read, good blog.

I'm still struggling with this idea that there will be a "gentleman's agreement" to protect pending UFA players by not resigning them until after the expansion draft, the NHL's goal is to afford LV every opportunity to be competitive from day 1 which means they are going to want LV to have access to as much talent as possible, if we can see the loophole I'm sure they can too and I won't be surprised if they make it as risky as possible for teams to go that route. My guess is that the easiest way to accomplish this is to schedule the draft for after the open talking period that way all teams including LV can negotiate with the UFAs before the expansion draft.
- jaydogg1974

It's not like this is the first expansion draft, they've never bothered closing the loophole before. Claiming they want to make Vegas as competitive as possible is just giving lip service to the new Vegas fans. They knew when they set up the rules that almost everyone in the league would protect 7 of their top 9 forwards, have one auto-protected by youth and another pseudo-protected by upcoming UFA status; and Vegas would be left icing a dozen 4th liners. NHL doesn't want to force a team like Arizona to give up a player to Vegas and then Vegas be instantly better than them. They want Vegas to be terrible the first few years, because Vegas will sell out regardless by virtue of being so new; and the current bottom feeders will suddenly have someone making them look not quite as bad. They just aren't going to come out and admit it.

Vegasn will likely take Subban from Boston. No one is gonna give up anything good. for him pre expansion draft and lose their starting tender. Doesnt really make sense for Boston to even move him for a 3rd then lose another decent player like a griffiths in the expansion draft.

I don't think anaheim goes the 4 and 4 route (fowler traded) but vegas would be all over rackell.

I'm still struggling with this idea that there will be a "gentleman's agreement" to protect pending UFA players by not resigning them until after the expansion draft, the NHL's goal is to afford LV every opportunity to be competitive from day 1 which means they are going to want LV to have access to as much talent as possible, if we can see the loophole I'm sure they can too and I won't be surprised if they make it as risky as possible for teams to go that route. My guess is that the easiest way to accomplish this is to schedule the draft for after the open talking period that way all teams including LV can negotiate with the UFAs before the expansion draft.
- jaydogg1974

The expansion draft is already scheduled for June 18th-20th, well before the interview period.

There is just no feasible way to close the de facto protection of pending UFAs loophole. The only way they can do that is by making a rule similar to the one that says that teams can't sign players they bought out and make it so that teams cannot resign pending UFAs that played for their club the season prior if they are not resigned by the 18th. But that would be super poopty and unfair and is worse than the actual loophole its closing.

There's inherent risk in exploiting this loophole. A player may agree in principal to a new deal in January with the understanding that it will be signed in late June, but if the player ups their value, they can reneg and move on if the GM can't match. Basically, teams will be able to autoprotect their pending UFAs, but there won't be any midseason bargain deals.

It's not like this is the first expansion draft, they've never bothered closing the loophole before. Claiming they want to make Vegas as competitive as possible is just giving lip service to the new Vegas fans. They knew when they set up the rules that almost everyone in the league would protect 7 of their top 9 forwards, have one auto-protected by youth and another pseudo-protected by upcoming UFA status; and Vegas would be left icing a dozen 4th liners. NHL doesn't want to force a team like Arizona to give up a player to Vegas and then Vegas be instantly better than them. They want Vegas to be terrible the first few years, because Vegas will sell out regardless by virtue of being so new; and the current bottom feeders will suddenly have someone making them look not quite as bad. They just aren't going to come out and admit it.
- Antilles

Yeah I don't think thats the case at all. These rules really favor Vegas. Pretty much every team in the NHL has a bad contract on a NMC. 90% of teams will lose someone that they really don't want to lose. Vegas won't get a superstar in the expansion draft, but they'll have solid top down depth and good building blocks to head into the draft (where they have the same loto odds as the third worst team) and try to acquire their face of the franchise in the draft or through trades.

Every team has to expose at least one goalie, one defensemen, and 2 forwards. Might want to make sure every team you list is exposing at least that, and maybe take into account this seasons games as well. This makes it much more interesting. For instance the Canes need to play Murphy ~35 games to expose him on D or they'll be stuck picking from their young d core to expose one. Means a bit more work, but it'll make for some more exciting players getting exposed.

I did this using the tool from fanager about 6 weeks ago. The team I came up with was ok but not great. I chose Fehr from the Penguins and so did the guy from bleacher report. But it really depends on how some of young guys improve this year. Like if Brian Rust turns into the next Justin Williams it would be hard for Vegas not to grab him up. Pouliot is another guy who could have a great year and we end up losing him. It also depends on what we get for MAF and when we make that deal. It's way too early to do this excercise I guess is my point.

Yeah I don't think thats the case at all. These rules really favor Vegas. Pretty much every team in the NHL has a bad contract on a NMC. 90% of teams will lose someone that they really don't want to lose. Vegas won't get a superstar in the expansion draft, but they'll have solid top down depth and good building blocks to head into the draft (where they have the same loto odds as the third worst team) and try to acquire their face of the franchise in the draft or through trades.
- Victoro311

The NHL had to make teams protect NMC in order to expand. NHLPA insisted, and no expansion without their approval. It's not a decision the NHL made to help Vegas out, and I'd guess well less than half the teams in the league are protecting a NMC they wouldn't have anyways.

You really need to look around a bit more if you think 90% of team are losing someone important. I mean, of the 5 teams in this blog, only Anaheim is really losing someone that matters, and even then not nearly as much as suggested; they will buy out Bieksa and protect Cogs and Rackell. Boston and Calgary will either lose a prospect who doesn't contribute right now or someone they won't miss, Buffalo and Arizona won't miss what they lose. And sure, those are mostly lower end teams... But St. Louis isn't exposing anything important, Chicago isn't, San Jose isn't unless they extend a bunch of guys before hand, unlikely, Dallas won't lose anything important... that's half the Western Conference playoffs and zero players to make Vegas good on day 1. Add in the 4 in the blog who won't give Vegas anything to help right away, and you are nearing a third of the league.

Pittsburgh will lose Murray. There will be 7-8 teams who lose a third liner or #4D. Another 7 or 8 who lose a b-level prospect. And the rest of the league will lose bottom pairing or 4th line guys. Having 4 second pairing defensemen and one or two lines of third liners then two lines of fourth liners is not going to be competitive. And the NHL knows that. If they cared, they wouldn't have abandoned the plan to make a certain percentage of cap be exposed.

The NHL had to make teams protect NMC in order to expand. NHLPA insisted, and no expansion without their approval. It's not a decision the NHL made to help Vegas out, and I'd guess well less than half the teams in the league are protecting a NMC they wouldn't have anyways.

You really need to look around a bit more if you think 90% of team are losing someone important. I mean, of the 5 teams in this blog, only Anaheim is really losing someone that matters, and even then not nearly as much as suggested; they will buy out Bieksa and protect Cogs and Rackell. Boston and Calgary will either lose a prospect who doesn't contribute right now or someone they won't miss, Buffalo and Arizona won't miss what they lose. And sure, those are mostly lower end teams... But St. Louis isn't exposing anything important, Chicago isn't, San Jose isn't unless they extend a bunch of guys before hand, unlikely, Dallas won't lose anything important... that's half the Western Conference playoffs and zero players to make Vegas good on day 1. Add in the 4 in the blog who won't give Vegas anything to help right away, and you are nearing a third of the league.

Pittsburgh will lose Murray. There will be 7-8 teams who lose a third liner or #4D. Another 7 or 8 who lose a b-level prospect. And the rest of the league will lose bottom pairing or 4th line guys. Having 4 second pairing defensemen and one or two lines of third liners then two lines of fourth liners is not going to be competitive. And the NHL knows that. If they cared, they wouldn't have abandoned the plan to make a certain percentage of cap be exposed.
- Antilles

Logic dictates that Murray is the guy that Pittsburgh will lose. Unless he absolutely falls on his face this season the Pens will do everything they can to make sure he is not exposed.

MAF has a twelve team no trade clause in his contract. That still exposes him to over half of the league. We can assume Calgary is on the twelve team list. Fleury will be traded long before Murray is in any danger of being lost to expansion. I also think the Pens will do everything they can to send Fleury to a team of his choosing.

Dead times in hockey require bloggers to find something and while the lists look interesting because we fans are basically so bored right now – the odds of these lists looking anything like these presented are just about zero.

First there will be trades plus team’s shuffling players around. Possibly the biggest decision by any of the teams will be Pittsburgh’s decision on their Fleury/Murray situation. I would suspect Fleury has to be traded but their management group seems to be more prepared than most on situations like these.

I think LV will complete the draft by obtaining a decent goalie and a fairly solid group of defensemen. Mostly because that the MO McPhee's had for decades. And, with George McPhee at the helm those ‘gentlemen agreements’ (closely related to cheating) that bends the rules will be in full play. The NHL never has all the ends tied so McPhee will have those behind closed door agreements to not select certain unprotected players.

To me, his personal goal was/is to be respected by his peers first, more so then building the best team he can.

Since someone gets picked from every team, I think you should include a prediction of which player gets swiped unless that will be the final part of this series...