Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Provorov in NHL is NOT a Slam Dunk for 2016-17

half court shot?

foul shot

Bill, some asked this last blog and I was wondering the same thing:

Rubstove, injury aside, if getting Rinaldo-esque minutes. It seems that getting him to the AHL may help his development (rink surface, NA style of play). If he's inclined to do so, would he Flyers be able to buy out his KHL contract and bring him over? If so, do you think it would be wise to do so?

Bill, some asked this last blog and I was wondering the same thing:

Rubstove, injury aside, if getting Rinaldo-esque minutes. It seems that getting him to the AHL may help his development (rink surface, NA style of play). If he's inclined to do so, would he Flyers be able to buy out his KHL contract and bring him over? If so, do you think it would be wise to do so?
- jmatchett383

It is complicated, but the practical answer is no, the Flyers cannot just pay Vityaz to release Rubtsov from his contract. Rubtsov's agent discussed with Vityaz the parameters for being released from his contract and it was not realistic to do so.

They were aware of this before he was drafted.

half court shot?
- all-pgh

More look a good shooter with a jump shot from the top of the key -- but a contested one.

Dikembe skyhook

Re Provorov: One of the reasons I think Management at least strongly hopes he makes the team this year is so they won't risk a situation in 17-18 where they could be breaking in 3 rookie D simultaneously. Morin and Sanheim could very well both be making their full time debuts as rookies that season (heck, as could Hagg as well) and I'm guessing they want to avoid a situation that would have 3 or 4 rookie Dmen in the same lineup.

My guess is as follows:
Provorov makes the team this season and either someone is traded or AMac is waived.

Morin comes up and takes a spot at some point during the season, and is a regular by seasons end.

Hagg, if not traded in a deal to land a young forward prospect (and this could pertain to Morin too, but not as likely), gets some injury call up time and makes the team out of camp in 17-18

Sanheim spends all of 16-17 in the AHL, starts 17-18 there as well, and comes up to stay at some point during that season.

Re some other Dmen:
Myers will play Junior this year and the whole season in the AHL in 17-18. Hard to look any further out

Wilcox: This kid could be a sleeper and seems to have a pretty well developed game already. I could see him getting a call-up if the team suffers multiple injuries on D this season and I could see him earning a permanent spot at some point during 17-18

It is NOT a slam dunk that he is ready to clear the bar as high as Hextall has set it, and the bar will not be lowered to appease the fans or the media. He might be. He might not be. And those who say, "Well, he can't be worse than (fill in the blank with the name of the speaker's designated blue line role-playing whipping boy)" are missing the point.
- Bill Meltzer

boom

Excellent article, Bill. I fear that it will fall on some deaf ears, though.

I expect Provorov to get plenty of preseason games, especially with Gudas out, and Ghost and Streit in the WC. I also expect him to do very well in those games and force Hextall to keep him on the team.

But if he only does well or OK in preseason, then I wont be mad about him being sent back to the WHL.

foul shot
- Streit2ThePoint

Re Provorov: One of the reasons I think Management at least strongly hopes he makes the team this year is so they won't risk a situation in 17-18 where they could be breaking in 3 rookie D simultaneously. Morin and Sanheim could very well both be making their full time debuts as rookies that season (heck, as could Hagg as well) and I'm guessing they want to avoid a situation that would have 3 or 4 rookie Dmen in the same lineup.

My guess is as follows:
Provorov makes the team this season and either someone is traded or AMac is waived.

Morin comes up and takes a spot at some point during the season, and is a regular by seasons end.
- BiggE

Yeah, I'll be shocked if Morin doesn't play NHL games this season, but I'll also be surprised if Sanheim doesn't. MDZ, Schultz and Streit are all free agents who could be traded, and then there are the inevitable injuries to consider.

Manute Bol three pointer.

Let's face it, Russians are soft. Look at Nichushkin. Running home to Momma Russia.

In reality, though, Hextall has made it clear that part of his plan is to ensure he doesn't have to rush a kid. By retaining Streit, re-signing Gudas, adding guys like Boyd and Wiese, he has depth.

If a kid like Provorov earns a spot, and the Flyers feel his best path is on the NHL roster, room can be made. If not, he goes to Brandon and hopefully Hexy is right about overcooking being a myth

And those who say, "Well, he can't be worse than (fill in the blank with the name of the speaker's designated blue line role-playing whipping boy)" are missing the point.

Hey, that's the pet name my wife calls me

Let's face it, Russians are soft. Look at Nichushkin. Running home to Momma Russia.
- Jsaquella

He simply doesn't want to play for Lindy Ruff, and I don't blame him.

More look a good shooter with a jump shot from the top of the key -- but a contested one.
- bmeltzer

Provorov should take more efficient shots tbh

Those who feel Giroux should be replaced as captain demonstrate their utter cluelessness about the team dynamic and the fact he did an excellent job as captain last year, because he was indispensable to how the team started to get on board with a 200-foot commitment to Dave Hakstol's system (which, by the way, came with sacrifices that cut into his point production because of all the penalty killing and back checking Giroux did).

This should be reposted on every page of the comments section for this blog.

This should be reposted on every page of the comments section for this blog.
- MBFlyerfan

Yes! This was the other bit I wanted to quote here but I got distracted and forgot. lol Thanks for putting it here.

If a kid like Provorov earns a spot, and the Flyers feel his best path is on the NHL roster, room can be made. If not, he goes to Brandon and hopefully Hexy is right about overcooking being a myth
- Jsaquella

Hexy's right that overcooking is a myth. His growth won't be stunted, nothing bad will happen. It's just probably a wasted development year where he could grow his game tenfold in the NHL vs WHL. Not to mention, it helps stagger the d prospects.

For every rookie, save for a select few, making the jump to the NHL is like jumping into cold water. You will never be fully prepared. If Provy isn't prepared this season, after everything he did, how would he be more prepared next offseason dominating kids again? Then why not just go to the AHL after next year too? Every prospect is different, but at some point it just takes a leap of faith and trust in the prospect.

I think Provy stays

Hexy's right that overcooking is a myth. His growth won't be stunted, nothing bad will happen. It's just probably a wasted development year where he could grow his game tenfold in the NHL vs WHL. Not to mention, it helps stagger the d prospects.

For every rookie, save for a select few, making the jump to the NHL is like jumping into cold water. You will never be fully prepared. If Provy isn't prepared this season, after everything he did, how would he be more prepared next offseason dominating kids again? Then why not just go to the AHL after next year too? Every prospect is different, but at some point it just takes a leap of faith and trust in the prospect.
- Mononoke

That leap of faith is what was forced with Ghost last year by the injury to Streit. It seems that they are ready to take that leap on Provorov if and only if he WOWs them during the preseason. If there is even a .01% question he can handle it it seems he's back in Brandon. I kind of like the idea of making him blow them away and I hope the others are on the same rule. No one gets handed a spot on this team just by outplaying who we got. They need to be performing at the level expected of them or else we use those we have and let them develop further at the level they can be placed. It sucks that that level for Provorov is the WHL but those are the rules. Morin, Hagg, Sanheim also should have to WOW the brass before they get their shots.

We got 7 NHL defensemen from last season still on this roster. They should play here unless someone REALLY forces their way onto the team. This season isn't the be all end all we are still a 7/8 seed in reality so why force something you don't need to.

$10 and a Jewish pickle says Provolone doesnt make the team.

The more I think about it the less likely it seems he will be here in mid Oct.

As of right now we have:
NHL
MDZ
Gudas
Ghost
Schultz
Manning
A-Mac
Streit

Call up candidates:
Alt
Hagg
Morin
(depending on how he plays) Sanheim

That is 10/11 D-men that could be playing in NHL games.

You could always trade a guy, or waive a guy... this is true, but why? The most important question is, will leaving him in Jr's for one more season truly hurt him? I hate to say this, but no. He will dominate for sure, but he will be facing high expectations in the WHL, he will be expected to not only lead the Russian U-20 team, but dominate that tourney. He will continue to grow physically.

I hate it, but I think we have another year waiting to see him in O&B

Hexy's right that overcooking is a myth. His growth won't be stunted, nothing bad will happen. It's just probably a wasted development year where he could grow his game tenfold in the NHL vs WHL. Not to mention, it helps stagger the d prospects.

For every rookie, save for a select few, making the jump to the NHL is like jumping into cold water. You will never be fully prepared. If Provy isn't prepared this season, after everything he did, how would he be more prepared next offseason dominating kids again? Then why not just go to the AHL after next year too? Every prospect is different, but at some point it just takes a leap of faith and trust in the prospect.
- Mononoke

He will continue to grow both physically and mentally.

I work with high end athletes.. the change from 18-22 is unreal.

Manute Bol three pointer.

Let's face it, Russians are soft. Look at Nichushkin. Running home to Momma Russia.
- Jsaquella

Can't be. People on here assured me that he was the next Eric Lindros and that we should have traded up to pick him.

Manute Bol three pointer.

Let's face it, Russians are soft. Look at Nichushkin. Running home to Momma Russia.
- Jsaquella

Can't be. People on here assured me that he was the next Eric Lindros and that we should have traded up to pick him.