Sheng Peng: Figuring Forbort For better and worse, why Derek Forbort is LA's new Rob Scuderi

played his way on to the protected list? that's the diff between going 7-3-1 to 8-1?

11-77-70-73-8-6-24-27-32?

11-77-70-73-8-6-24-27-32?
- hiway39

I completely agree. Kings go 4-4-1 now, and those are the players they will protect.

played his way on to the protected list? that's the diff between going 7-3-1 to 8-1?

11-77-70-73-8-6-24-27-32?
- hiway39

Looks like, unless there's a trade.

I like articles like this, that attempt to balance statistical metrics, traditional metrics and what the guy is actually doing on the ice

When I saw Forbort play this year, I was truly impressed by his mobility. I haven't watched a ton of Kings games, so I don't have an opinion on his upside ultimately, but he definitely looked like he had physical tools

I like articles like this, that attempt to balance statistical metrics, traditional metrics and what the guy is actually doing on the ice

When I saw Forbort play this year, I was truly impressed by his mobility. I haven't watched a ton of Kings games, so I don't have an opinion on his upside ultimately, but he definitely looked like he had physical tools
- AllInForFlyers

Agree 100%! Great article Sheng. Corsi is a great tool but it's not the be-all, end-all of a players value. I wish Tanner would read your stuff.

I like articles like this, that attempt to balance statistical metrics, traditional metrics and what the guy is actually doing on the ice
- AllInForFlyers

Agree 100%! Great article Sheng.
- duxcup07

Thanks!

Top 10 pick


Wooo... time to restock the empty cupboards. Also hoping DL and sutter are gone. They did well with 2 cups, but seems their time is up with only 1 playoff win in 4years. Kings need speed and scoring. Really not that difficult to figure out.

this is one of the best written blogs I have seen on this site in awhile

Sheng Peng: Figuring Forbort
For better and worse, why Derek Forbort is LA's new Rob Scuderi
- Sheng Peng

Thanks to Bob Miller for gracing us with your magical voice for over 30 years of my life! Happy the Kings could win one today!

this is one of the best written blogs I have seen on this site in awhile
- jimbro83

Thanks!

Thanks to Bob Miller for gracing us with your magical voice for over 30 years of my life! Happy the Kings could win one today!
- arh777

Yup! Since we're not really in the running for a very high pick, let's send Bob off with some victories.

Regehr and Scuderi were not, shall we say, popular among advanced stats adherents.
- Sheng Peng

That's because advanced stat adherents put too much weight into stats that skew offensive. They're really more of offensive stat proponents. Relative Corsi For %, as you highlighted, is a good example. Of course guys like Regehr and Scuderi are going to be bad in that stat, since they're defensive defensemen who don't contribute to many shots for. On the other hand, players like Muzzin are advanced stats darlings because they put up loads of shots for, even if they allow more shots and/or goals against than the defensive defensemen who get hated on.

I agree with you that we should look past Corsi, but we should apply the same analysis to all players. Regehr and Scuderi don't deserve to be characterized by a dubious stat like CF% any more than Forbort. After all, the team won Cups with those guys, and, since their replacement with players who rank better in CF%, look at what they've won. Obviously, the blueprint for success is not jettisoning the defensemen with subpar CF%, even though that's what the advanced stats guys continually call for.

Fun fact: Voynov usually had one of the worst CF% on the team and Sekera (his replacement) had the best during the short time that he was with the team.

This year, Forbort has the least PIMs (17) of the team's most-used rearguards (Drew Doughty, 42; Alec Martinez, 38; Jake Muzzin, 28).
- Sheng Peng

NHL.com has very different numbers. It shows Forbort having the most PIMs of all defensemen (54), followed by McNabb (54), Muzzin (46), Doughty (44) and Martinez (24). In his and McNabb's defense, though, nearly half of their PIMs come from majors (presumably fighting majors). If you order the defensemen by PIMs from only minor penalties, which is a much more accurate gauge of discipline, the order is Muzzin (46), Doughty (44), Forbort (34), McNabb (24) and Martinez (24)... though Forbort has played a lot more than games than McNabb, so he's 4th on a penalties/game or "least disciplined" list.

http://www.nhl.com/stats/...,gte,&sort=penaltyMinutes

I agree with you that we should look past Corsi, but we should apply the same analysis to all players. Regehr and Scuderi don't deserve to be characterized by a dubious stat like CF% any more than Forbort.

NHL.com has very different numbers. It shows Forbort having the most PIMs of all defensemen (54), followed by McNabb (54), Muzzin (46), Doughty (44) and Martinez (24). In his and McNabb's defense, though, nearly half of their PIMs come from majors (presumably fighting majors). If you order the defensemen by PIMs from only minor penalties, which is a much more accurate gauge of discipline, the order is Muzzin (46), Doughty (44), Forbort (34), McNabb (24) and Martinez (24)... though Forbort has played a lot more than games than McNabb, so he's 4th on a penalties/game or "least disciplined" list.
- Osprey

In principle, I agree that Regehr and Scuderi deserve more consideration beyond Rel.CF%. How much, I'm still trying to figure out.

Thanks for the correction on Forbort's PIMs, good eye! Bad miss on my part.

Thanks for the correction on Forbort's PIMs, good eye! Bad miss on my part.
- Sheng Peng

Coincidentally, your takeaway was still essentially correct. If you go by minor penalties, he's the least penalized of the top 4, big-minute defensemen. For that reason, it probably wasn't necessary to delete the Discipline section. You could've just corrected the language and the numbers.

Yup! Since we're not really in the running for a very high pick, let's send Bob off with some victories.
- Sheng Peng

It was nice of them to give Miller a win in his last home game, but I hope that they drop today's game. Right now, they would pick 10th at the draft, but winning today could move them back to 13th. That's a pretty big difference, especially when it's not a deep draft.

Coincidentally, your takeaway was still essentially correct. If you go by minor penalties, he's the least penalized of the top 4, big-minute defensemen. For that reason, it probably wasn't necessary to delete the Discipline section. You could've just corrected the language and the numbers.
- Osprey

Yeah, takeaway was right enough, but not as impactful. Anyway, Martinez had least amount of minors among top-four guys (12), followed by Forbort (16).