Peter Tessier: Change needs to come- here's a starting point Taking a look at last season and where the changes the coaches will make should be.

Am I right that, A lot of the anylitic metric used and discussed as early as 4-5 years ago have now been dis credited to a point? I’m not sure but I’ve seen some reports that suggest this?

If this is true why I have not seen an article on this or any of the more well known anylitics guys in Jets twitter admitting this or coming out saying “hey Remember when I was saying and preaching this, i was wrong”? Sorry about that.

Just curious.

Pete,
I have to say that I think Maurice's message has gotten stale. I don't think it is a knock on him, I think is just a reality. As has been said many times, it is easier to change one coach than 20 players.

As for chemistry and message....Maurice is a smart man. He has been around the game a long time. It is possible that he is smart enough to change his message which could well change the chemistry. Can he re-win over the players?

The losses/changes on the blue line are the biggest concern to me.

Great use of illustrative analytics. You really make them make sense.

To reply to something Ultimate said in the last thread:

21 games is an incredibly small sample size for Nik Ehlers to be harshly judged on nothing but bad luck. It’s a quarter of a season. The only thing about him that wasn’t up to par come playoff time was shooting percentage.

The argument about him being unlucky against 4 teams is both A: implying it has anything to do with the opposition, and not bad luck, which every player experiences, and B: hilarious, because Scheifele going on a 5 game goal-less drought against 5 different teams in like January or something is even worse than Ehlers

To reply to something Ultimate said in the last thread:

21 games is an incredibly small sample size for Nik Ehlers to be harshly judged on nothing but bad luck. It’s a quarter of a season. The only thing about him that wasn’t up to par come playoff time was shooting percentage.

The argument about him being unlucky against 4 teams is both A: implying it has anything to do with the opposition, and not bad luck, which every player experiences, and B: hilarious, because Scheifele going on a 5 game goal-less drought against 5 different teams in like January or something is even worse than Ehlers
- Rexypoo

Lol, this has to be one of the most bizarre trolling comments I have ever read!

Ehlers played against Minnesota 5 consecutive games, played against Nashville for 7 consecutive games, Vegas for 5 consecutive games and St. Louis for 6 consecutive games.

What does Scheifele having a 5 game regular season goalless drought have anything to do with Ehlers not being able to score in the playoffs? Lots of great players including Ovechkin, Crosby, Malikin, McDavid, Stamkos, Gretzky, Lemieux, Jagr, Bossy, etc... have had 5 game regular season goalless droughts. But none of them have ever gone 21 playoff games without a goal!

Even Ehlers himself has had 5 game regular season goalless droughts!!!

Lol

Lol, this has to be one of the most bizarre trolling comments I have ever read!

Ehlers played against Minnesota 5 consecutive games, played against Nashville for 7 consecutive games, Vegas for 5 consecutive games and St. Louis for 6 consecutive games.

What does Scheifele having a 5 game regular season goalless drought have anything to do with Ehlers not being able to score in the playoffs? Lots of great players including Ovechkin, Crosby, Malikin, McDavid, Stamkos, Gretzky, Lemieux, Jagr, Bossy, etc... have had 5 game regular season goalless droughts. But none of them have ever gone 21 playoff games without a goal!

Even Ehlers himself has had 5 game regular season goalless droughts!!!

Lol
- TheUltimateJet

That’s exactly my point.
You suggested that it was somehow bad news that Ehlers had trouble scoring against 4 teams. My point was that it makes no difference whom the opponent is. He was doing all the right things, had a cold streak like all players do sometimes, and it unfortunately came at a rough time.
The process is always more important than the results, especially when you’re dealing with a player whom gets better results than anyone else on the team (aside from Scheifele) an overwhelming majority of the time.

The bottom line is that Nikolaj Ehlers has been the exact same player in the playoffs as he is during the regular season. He’s still shooting, still generating scoring chances, and still driving play. The input is the same. Luck is the only thing that changed.

Bottom line: Don’t blame a player for something that is out of his control.

That’s exactly my point.
You suggested that it was somehow bad news that Ehlers had trouble scoring against 4 teams. My point was that it makes no difference whom the opponent is. He was doing all the right things, had a cold streak like all players do sometimes, and it unfortunately came at a rough time.
The process is always more important than the results, especially when you’re dealing with a player whom gets better results than anyone else on the team (aside from Scheifele) an overwhelming majority of the time.

The bottom line is that Nikolaj Ehlers has been the exact same player in the playoffs as he is during the regular season. He’s still shooting, still generating scoring chances, and still driving play. The input is the same. Luck is the only thing that changed.

Bottom line: Don’t blame a player for something that is out of his control.
- Rexypoo[/quote

There's been lots of young players over the years that have had problems scoring playoff goals in their early years, only to rip it up later on. Experience is a cure.

Not sure we're wanting to get rid of Nik, probably the most exciting Jet to watch, because he has yet to score in the post season. The goals will come. Trust me!

Hope he is a Jet lifer!

I mostly agree with your assertion that bad luck is a huge part of Ehlers goose egg and despite what UJ is saying you have articulated your point very well.

While standing with you on the principal that there is more to ehlers playoffs than the G&A totals a gap that the deeper stats may be glossing over are things like the old ‘squeezing the stick too tight’ or overthinking in some reaction situations. He can be nearly on without being on. Like it or not players are not the same in pressure or high stake situations.

Ehlers performances in world juniors was enough to convince me that when he gets the monkey off his back he will be fine, maybe brilliant.

I mostly agree with your assertion that bad luck is a huge part of Ehlers goose egg and despite what UJ is saying you have articulated your point very well.

While standing with you on the principal that there is more to ehlers playoffs than the G&A totals a gap that the deeper stats may be glossing over are things like the old ‘squeezing the stick too tight’ or overthinking in some reaction situations. He can be nearly on without being on. Like it or not players are not the same in pressure or high stake situations.

Ehlers performances in world juniors was enough to convince me that when he gets the monkey off his back he will be fine, maybe brilliant.
- 2.0

Oh, he’s definitely being affected by the pressure, that has to be a factor. I’m glad you made note of that, as I failed to.

Some players get fidgety, and pull the aforementioned stick squeezing. Ehlers fits into that category, which usually means he’ll be almost-ing through games at a time before scoring in bunches. Kinda like Ovechkin pre-2018. Laine is in that group too, as is Connor and even Buff. I personally love those types, as they’re hype as f**k when they score
Then you have the guys who stay exactly the same, but elevate their whole game that one extra notch come crunch time. Morrissey, Scheifele, and Hellebuyck are in that group.

Nobody will have to worry about Ehlers performance in the playoffs this year, as he and the rest of the Jets won't be playing in them.

Nobody will have to worry about Ehlers performance in the playoffs this year, as he and the rest of the Jets won't be playing in them.
- BWJumper

Excellent point.
On the plus side, we’ll probably be okay in a wildcard spot if Mo gets fired by the halfway mark

That’s exactly my point.
You suggested that it was somehow bad news that Ehlers had trouble scoring against 4 teams. My point was that it makes no difference whom the opponent is. He was doing all the right things, had a cold streak like all players do sometimes, and it unfortunately came at a rough time.
The process is always more important than the results, especially when you’re dealing with a player whom gets better results than anyone else on the team (aside from Scheifele) an overwhelming majority of the time.

The bottom line is that Nikolaj Ehlers has been the exact same player in the playoffs as he is during the regular season. He’s still shooting, still generating scoring chances, and still driving play. The input is the same. Luck is the only thing that changed.

Bottom line: Don’t blame a player for something that is out of his control.
- Rexypoo

On one hand you talk about advanced analytics and how things are in players control. On the other you say things are all about luck.

You my friend make lots of contradictory statements.

Ehlers is more of a playmaker than a scorer.

Ehlers is not a natural playmaker/setup guy, he is best as a scorer. This is part of the issue with being paired with Laine.

His career stats show otherwise.
Ehlers excels at carrying the puck into the offensive zone and drawing defenders to him and then dishing it off. Laine just can’t get open.

On one hand you talk about advanced analytics and how things are in players control. On the other you say things are all about luck.

You my friend make lots of contradictory statements.
- TheUltimateJet

I literally spent half a season talking about Laine having bad luck, and all of 18-19 and the previous summer talking about Ehlers having bad luck

His career stats show otherwise.
Ehlers excels at carrying the puck into the offensive zone and drawing defenders to him and then dishing it off. Laine just can’t get open.
- bennythehat

I like how you used a not true observation about Ehlers, a shoot first player, to take another pot shot at Laine

I literally spent half a season talking about Laine having bad luck, and all of 18-19 and the previous summer talking about Ehlers having bad luck
- Rexypoo

I could make the same statement too Rexypoo, in 2017-18 Laine had good luck and in 2018-19 Laine became the player that he truly is.

His career stats show otherwise.
Ehlers excels at carrying the puck into the offensive zone and drawing defenders to him and then dishing it off. Laine just can’t get open.
- bennythehat

Benny what you and me need to do is get together and prepare twenty kits of good luck items such as four leaf clovers, rabbits feet, lucky coins, etc... We then deliver the kits to all twenty members of the Jets opening day roster. With all the luck they will have as a result of the kits all members of the team will have career years, in fact exceptional years, that you can only get playing an NHL video game.

Laine will surely break Gretzky's record of 92 goals, actually all players on the team may accomplish that feat as they will be feeling lucky all the time.

I know one person who seems to have a dislike for Ehlers and that is Paul Maurice. Ehlers has seen his avg ice time go down in each of the past 2 seasons. Just look at last year playoffs, twice Ehlers couldn't crack 10 minutes in a game.

I know one person who seems to have a dislike for Ehlers and that is Paul Maurice. Ehlers has seen his avg ice time go down in each of the past 2 seasons. Just look at last year playoffs, twice Ehlers couldn't crack 10 minutes in a game.
- BWJumper

Possibly because Connor gets the minutes with 56 and 29 ?

I like how you used a not true observation about Ehlers, a shoot first player, to take another pot shot at Laine
- Rexypoo

Why is it untrue ? Because you don’t agree with it ?
Regarding Laine - I am just stating the obvious.

I could make the same statement too Rexypoo, in 2017-18 Laine had good luck and in 2018-19 Laine became the player that he truly is.
- TheUltimateJet

Except, uh, no. Last season was a very obvious aberration. He’s literally always been a dominant shooter.
Having his shot percentage go up in his first two years as the most dangerous sniper in the world makes sense. His regression next year will be terrifying for the NHL if he can get the shot volume up.

Additionally, I’m now remembering how I spent the entire first half talking about how the Jets were running hot (AKA getting lucky) on powerplay scoring and unreal goaltending, and that the wheels were going to fall off unless they made changes. Guess what...

Why is it untrue ? Because you don’t agree with it ?
Regarding Laine - I am just stating the obvious.
- bennythehat

Ehlers is, has always been, and will continue to be a better shooter than playmaker. He’s also shooting more frequently than most, thus making him a shooter.

I don’t want Nik Ehlers as a setup man. It’s a poor use of his abilities.

Possibly because Connor gets the minutes with 56 and 29 ?
- bennythehat

Which means A: Maurice is setting his lineup in a way that invites failure, as that top line isn’t good, and Ehlers is our best winger and B: Ehlers needs more ice