Michael Stuart: Dorion's Best Trade: Ceci to Toronto vs. Lazar to Calgary

Bill Placzek from DraftSite.com here.

I was going to throw this up on the site, but there is a bit of a size restriction but more than anything I was wondering what you all thought.

Here goes:

First round trades involving slight movement at the top of the first round have been very rare in the modern area of a universal draft. The Columbus Blue Jackets traded out of the 4th overall slot into 8th overall slot to add a late second 59th overall. The hosts of the draft, the Carolina Hurricanes made a splash with this move up slot #4 to select Andrew Ladd in the 2004 NHL Entry Draft first round.
In 1999, The Sedin Brothers were adamant about being drafted and playing together, so Brian Burke, GM of the Vancouver Canucks talked four teams into making the Sedin Brothers wishes happen when he traded the 3rd overall selection, and defenseman Bryan McCabe and Vancouver's 1st-round pick in the 2000 Draft to the Chicago Blackhawks for their fourth overall pick. Then he obtained the first overall pick from Tampa Bay, flipping Chicago's fourth overall pick — which the Lightning subsequently traded to the Rangers, who used it to draft Pavel Brendl — and two third-round selections. Vancouver and Atlanta then worked out a deal whereby Atlanta, who held the second overall selection, promised to select Patrik Stefan with the first overall pick, leaving both Sedins available to Vancouver at 2nd and 3rd. The Burke intricately four team deal, in my humble opinion, was one which the likes of hockey drafting will never be seen again.

Other than that, I cannot recall teams willing to move out of high slotting, and especially that coveted number one spot, because if you move out, and that prospect turns into a generational player, your fan base never forgives you!

But, is this the year where the prospects and draft order may align so that the Detroit Red Wings can have draft success by NOT drafting Rimouski’s Alexis Lafrenière and using him to obtain the next two picks in the 2020 draft?
There is a proposed draft change on the table whereby there will be one lotto drawing with the winner not selecting first but being able to jump four slots high than they originally were in the draft order (that was determined using winning percentages). No three separate chances for all the non-playoff teams to leapfrog into slots one through three…one winner who gets to then jump up four notches closer to the top of the round.
So it is not a lock that the Red Wings draft first overall...
they have to win the lottery to stay in their number one overall slotting before they can even attempt to drop out of the top spot in a deal. Ottawa may simply win the lottery as they will have the lotto balls of their final standing %s and San Jose's which is slot 3.
If the Red Wings win the draft then Ottawa would then hold both the 2nd and 3rd overall slots...would they be willing to take those two chances a getting great players and package them for one Alexis Lafrenière? Would the Senators make that move to add Francophone player and pass on two chances as franchise pillar prospects? I can easily argue it both ways.

Even if the Detroit Red Wings would have to “sacrifice" the first overall and maybe a sweeter of that first overall in the second round (32nd overall) to make it happen, the Red Wings would have the benefit of two high draft additions to their rebuild? Two additions might serve their long terms interests, and the possible addition to Ottawa by francophone Alexis Lafrenière might be a very tempting bait and one that would be popular in the Canadien Capital.
Could the Red Wings see the two for the price of one as something they could sell to their fan base or would they fear the future successes of Lafrenière might forever haunt and hurt them?
I would like to hear what you think about this possible trade scenario, taking the side as GMs for both teams.

Ottawa will not trade #2 and #3 for #1. It would be crazy.

Let's assume the top three picks are: Lafreniere, Byfield and Stutzle.

The rumour floating about is that Yzerman loves Stutzle. Would anybody (other than Montreal) seriously entertain the idea of dealing Byfield and Stutzle for Lafreniere?

Would you trade Stutzle and Justin Barron (at #18) for Lafreniere? Much harder question.

Ottawa will not trade #2 and #3 for #1. It would be crazy.

Let's assume the top three picks are: Lafreniere, Byfield and Stutzle.

The rumour floating about is that Yzerman loves Stutzle. Would anybody (other than Montreal) seriously entertain the idea of dealing Byfield and Stutzle for Lafreniere?

Would you trade Stutzle and Justin Barron (at #18) for Lafreniere? Much harder question.
- spatso

I do the 2 and 3 for Lafreniere. Just for the buzz in town and bring fan from Outaouais side and for piss Habs fan would be gold lol

I do the 2 and 3 for Lafreniere. Just for the buzz in town and bring fan from Outaouais side and for piss Habs fan would be gold lol
- Crosside

i'd do 2 and 21 for 1, but not 2 and 3

Detroit would have to sweeten the pot to get me to trade 2 and 3 for 1.

And one of their second rounders wouldn't fit it.

This trade would be too difficult to work out for both parties.

Detroit would have to sweeten the pot to get me to trade 2 and 3 for 1.

And one of their second rounders wouldn't fit it.

This trade would be too difficult to work out for both parties.
- david22

New Jersey has 6, 10 and 17. Maybe they might give up 6 and 17 for #1 overall. But why would Yzerman do that?

Yzerman reportedly loves Stutzle. So, maybe he is open to doing #1 for the #2 and #33. But, it could blow so badly on him if Lafreniere becomes the star that people expect.

Ottawa getting both Lafreniere and Byfield would certainly create huge news. I think as it looks today they are getting 2 out of 3 from a short list of Lafreniere, Byfield and Stutzle...not bad! Remember 82% probability that Detroit and Ottawa have some combination of the 1, 2 and 3 picks.

I don't know any of these players eligible for the draft because I've only seen some of them (Canadians) in the WJC. From what I saw on the Canadian team & the teams they played against, Lafreniere was by far the best player out there. His game right now is at the pro level. He's a special player. The rest is a crap shoot like every other draft. Some might be fast tracked but not on teams with good development programs. That's why I like the way Dorion & Mann do it. The first 2 rounds they draft big & safe.

Ottawa will not trade #2 and #3 for #1. It would be crazy.

Let's assume the top three picks are: Lafreniere, Byfield and Stutzle.

The rumour floating about is that Yzerman loves Stutzle. Would anybody (other than Montreal) seriously entertain the idea of dealing Byfield and Stutzle for Lafreniere?

Would you trade Stutzle and Justin Barron (at #18) for Lafreniere? Much harder question.
- spatso

Agreed. There's been a lot of research done on the value of draft picks, and 2+3 is a whole lot more valuable than 1 alone generally.

Agreed. There's been a lot of research done on the value of draft picks, and 2+3 is a whole lot more valuable than 1 alone generally.
- Michael_Stuart

I am curious Michael...I have seen the success projection graphs on success based on draft picks slot, but I have never seen an actual value chart like the ones you can find on the National FOOTBALL league draft.

Could you provide a link?

And thank you, all you are leaving opinions...

Not going to openly take a side just yet, but if I was the Ottawa team I would be hesitant....

I would have to be convinced Alexis Lafrenière is a generational player...BUT...

I bet you aren't going to get a consensus as to who the clear cut prospects ARE that fill slotting two and three...

I will hold firm with Quinton Byfield, but I have seen countless draft prognosticators placing Tim Stützle, Raymond Holtz, Lucas Raymond or a team starving for an offenseman selecting Jamie Drysdale plus goaler Yaroslav Askarov...

So if there is a group that sit as "closely ranked," does that add doubt in the certainty when a team goes to the podium?

Just saying...if you see the rewards at #2 and #3 as clear sure fire long careered NHL players, you stand pat...but if you see Alex Lafrenière in a much brighter light, maybe you consider it?

Getting rid of Ceci's mistake after mistake must of pleased the Sens brass (& their fans too!)

Question: Let's say Sens get Lafrienere or Byfield.

The Sens have the 5th pick. Stutzle and Rossi/Raymond are gone. Would you want the Sens take Jamie Drysdale?

Agreed. There's been a lot of research done on the value of draft picks, and 2+3 is a whole lot more valuable than 1 alone generally.
- Michael_Stuart

Without . a. doubt.

I hope we can stop talking about all that crap (in the media, etc) about trading 3 picks for one or all that garbage. 1 player doesn't win a cup. Unless your Gretzky, Lemiux, Crosby, OV or POSSIBLY a Malkin, there's absolutely no way you think about trading 2 top picks for a #1 in this type of draft especially

Question: Let's say Sens get Lafrienere or Byfield.

The Sens have the 5th pick. Stutzle and Rossi/Raymond are gone. Would you want the Sens take Jamie Drysdale?
- AlfieisKing

yes, 100% yes.....even if they had 3 and all those guys were still there, i'd still strongly consider taking Drysdale. stacking your D is never a bad thing, and Drysdale would instantly become the #1 D prospect on the team

yes, 100% yes.....even if they had 3 and all those guys were still there, i'd still strongly consider taking Drysdale. stacking your D is never a bad thing, and Drysdale would instantly become the #1 D prospect on the team
- sensarmy_11

fingers crossed man*

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HV_kiPUCjnA

Shane Pinto looks like a great person & player

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HV_kiPUCjnA

Shane Pinto looks like a great person & player
- AlfieisKing

Big and safe.

fingers crossed man*
- AlfieisKing

if Ottawa has #2 and #3, my preference would be to take Byfield and Drysdale.....if you come out of the draft with the best center available, and the best dman available.....i'd say that's a pretty good draft.

if they want another skilled forward, package 21 and their own 2nd rd pick to move up and grab someone like Lapierre, Lundell, or Mercer (should all be taken somewhere in the 15ish range)

if they have 1/2 or 1/3, then you forget about the dman and grab laf and one of byfield/stutzle

if Ottawa has #2 and #3, my preference would be to take Byfield and Drysdale.....if you come out of the draft with the best center available, and the best dman available.....i'd say that's a pretty good draft.

if they want another skilled forward, package 21 and their own 2nd rd pick to move up and grab someone like Lapierre, Lundell, or Mercer (should all be taken somewhere in the 15ish range)

if they have 1/2 or 1/3, then you forget about the dman and grab laf and one of byfield/stutzle
- sensarmy_11

Ott should be looking at trading stutzle AMD Byfield if it comes up if they are the best players available, which they appear to be

They should be trading up with the isles pick almost regardless if what happens

Question: Let's say Sens get Lafrienere or Byfield.

The Sens have the 5th pick. Stutzle and Rossi/Raymond are gone. Would you want the Sens take Jamie Drysdale?
- AlfieisKing

I think it would be 50/50. I’m a big fan of drysdale and I think he is a cale makar type prospect but more nhl ready at this point.

While there are others with different opinions in my mind he’s the undisputed number 4 prospect on the board, and him and chabot would be a more formidable combination than chabot and anyone the sens have in their system.

With that said given the strength of the sens D prospects and the fact they already know they’re going to get great value out of the first of the two picks I could see them shoring up the offence to equal their D. So in the scenario you provided I could see them going with holtz, perfetti or while he’s a bit off the board hometown boy Jack Quinn could be a real fit.

Ott should be looking at trading stutzle AMD Byfield if it comes up if they are the best players available, which they appear to be

They should be trading up with the isles pick almost regardless if what happens
- david22

Byfield is clearly the 2nd best player in this draft IMO, and if you have the 2nd pick you absolutely take him........the 3rd best player isn't as clear, there are votes for stutzle, raymond, and drysdale, and it's about even between them.

if you already have byfield, and then draft stutzle, you're likely drafting him to turn him into a winger (when he's a natural center), personally i'd rather take the franchise dman, than a center that we'd convert to the wing

I am curious Michael...I have seen the success projection graphs on success based on draft picks slot, but I have never seen an actual value chart like the ones you can find on the National FOOTBALL league draft.

Could you provide a link?

And thank you, all you are leaving opinions...

Not going to openly take a side just yet, but if I was the Ottawa team I would be hesitant....

I would have to be convinced Alexis Lafrenière is a generational player...BUT...

I bet you aren't going to get a consensus as to who the clear cut prospects ARE that fill slotting two and three...

I will hold firm with Quinton Byfield, but I have seen countless draft prognosticators placing Tim Stützle, Raymond Holtz, Lucas Raymond or a team starving for an offenseman selecting Jamie Drysdale plus goaler Yaroslav Askarov...

So if there is a group that sit as "closely ranked," does that add doubt in the certainty when a team goes to the podium?

Just saying...if you see the rewards at #2 and #3 as clear sure fire long careered NHL players, you stand pat...but if you see Alex Lafrenière in a much brighter light, maybe you consider it?
- wiz1901

Here's a link to the paper that I've referenced most frequently. It's a little dated, but if I recall he updated the numbers in 2015 or 2016 as well.

https://myslu.stlawu.edu/...s/Schuckers_NHL_Draft.pdf

I dont know anything about any of the draft picks but keeping 2,3 seems logical,rather then trading them both for #1.

Just a question based on the new reality.
how long can any league survive,without fans in the stands,.particularly vunerable teams wich in the Nhl is half.
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I dont know anything about any of the draft picks but keeping 2,3 seems logical,rather then trading them both for #1.

Just a question based on the new reality.
how long can any league survive,without fans in the stands,.particularly vunerable teams wich in the Nhl is half.

- spazzbot[/img]

Teams with strong local tv contracts (Sens get $40m per year) plus a share of a very good national deal will be okay if they stay near the CAP minimum. TV ratings will be huge.

Some of the teams that spend to the max will have some financial issues.