Todd Cordell: Calgary Flames likely to draw Winnipeg Jets in expanded playoffs

Take top 16 and call it a day.

Todd,

According to the fancy numbers who should take the series?

I would have to say Winnipeg. All Winnipeg has to do is be physical with SM and JG and Calgary is down to one line that can score.

If that is the speculated format, it would be better to re-seed after the play-in round.

Todd,

According to the fancy numbers who should take the series?

I would have to say Wiinnepeg. All Winnepeg has to do is be physical with SM and JG anf Calgari is down to one line that can score.
- DuranDuran

Fancy numbers have no way of factoring in physicality and intimidation.

Fancy numbers have no way of factoring in physicality and intimidation.
- Hunkulese

Agreed!

The only way the Jets have a chance of winning any games is if Helly plays great. The Jets forwards have been programed to play defense first which cuts down the effectiveness of their strong offensive players. Hopefully they get to see how Samberg would do in the lineup.

The Flames could easily win this whole thing if early-season Rittich shows up. I could also see the Flames going with Talbot. I wonder how many preseason/regular-season games they'll give teams to figure things out.

I think center high end depth is actually the glaring weakness of the Calgary Flames overall and a certain disadvantage against Winnipeg this preventing them from being a serious contender. Winnipeg has decisive edge at Center ice with Schieffle and Wheeler over Monahan and Backlund. And Winnipeg pretty even with Calgary on the wings with Laine and Conner, Ehlers vs Gaudeau and Tkachuk, Lindholm. But I'll take Winnipegs speed and size/high end skill ceiling for playoffs. I'm sorry throw away all your advance possession stats, Winnipeg is just a better team when the chips are down. Winnipeg bigger/faster/heavier/meaner/deeper more talented upfront, better in net. Calgary has edge on blue line that's how I see it. Winnipeg has a higher overall ceiling, but I believe last year Calgary was lightning in a bottle exposed in playoffs and doublely confirmed this season.

Further worth noting as potential for concern regarding this matchup is that their performance stepped up after their deadline acquisitions of Demelo and Eakin. I think Demelo especially helped shore up the backend enough to get them back to pulling even and beyond.

In the 10 games since his arrival, they're 6-3-1 posting ~50% in CF, FF and xGF with 31 GF (24 at evens) and 19 GA (17 at evens) making for a 58.5% GF. They certainly still have a flawed backend and are particularly at-risk if an injury occurs to any of their top-4, but I think the flow of play weakness Todd points to has been mitigated somewhat by those additions.

I think center high end depth is actually the glaring weakness of the Calgary Flames overall and a certain disadvantage against Winnipeg this preventing them from being a serious contender. Winnipeg has decisive edge at Center ice with Schieffle and Wheeler over Monahan and Backlund. And Winnipeg pretty even with Calgary on the wings with Laine and Conner, Ehlers vs Gaudeau and Tkachuk, Lindholm. But I'll take Winnipegs speed and size/high end skill ceiling for playoffs. I'm sorry throw away all your advance possession stats, Winnipeg is just a better team when the chips are down. Winnipeg bigger/faster/heavier/meaner/deeper more talented upfront, better in net. Calgary has edge on blue line that's how I see it. Winnipeg has a higher overall ceiling, but I believe last year Calgary was lightning in a bottle exposed in playoffs and doublely confirmed this season.
- Puck Possession

I agree if wheeler is down the middle then they blow our centres out of the water if not I think it would be 50/50. Scheifele is elite so it’s basically him vs our 3 average centers. I’m a monahan fan myself but I don’t see us winning a cup with him playing Johnny gaudreau’s wheelie hockey bag as our 1st line C.

I think if playoffs happen and especially if we draw this matchup, how we respond to the more physical play will heavily factor in to what needs to happen for this team even if it means re-tool.

Further worth noting as potential for concern regarding this matchup is that their performance stepped up after their deadline acquisitions of Demelo and Eakin. I think Demelo especially helped shore up the backend enough to get them back to pulling even and beyond.

In the 10 games since his arrival, they're 6-3-1 posting ~50% in CF, FF and xGF with 31 GF (24 at evens) and 19 GA (17 at evens) making for a 58.5% GF. They certainly still have a flawed backend and are particularly at-risk if an injury occurs to any of their top-4, but I think the flow of play weakness Todd points to has been mitigated somewhat by those additions.
- MaximumBone

I honestly believe demelo is one of the most underrated D in the league. He won’t wow you offensively or give you heart attacks defensively, just a steady complimentary piece to your core.

I was surprised Ottawa didn’t work harder to extend him as he did extremely well with chabot, and given the year the sens had that’s something to be said.

I honestly believe demelo is one of the most underrated D in the league. He won’t wow you offensively or give you heart attacks defensively, just a steady complimentary piece to your core.

I was surprised Ottawa didn’t work harder to extend him as he did extremely well with chabot, and given the year the sens had that’s something to be said.
- RedC21

Agreed. The fact that he went for a 3rd is insane. Every team in the league should've been willing to and capable of beating that price.

I think center high end depth is actually the glaring weakness of the Calgary Flames overall and a certain disadvantage against Winnipeg this preventing them from being a serious contender. Winnipeg has decisive edge at Center ice with Schieffle and Wheeler over Monahan and Backlund. And Winnipeg pretty even with Calgary on the wings with Laine and Conner, Ehlers vs Gaudeau and Tkachuk, Lindholm. But I'll take Winnipegs speed and size/high end skill ceiling for playoffs. I'm sorry throw away all your advance possession stats, Winnipeg is just a better team when the chips are down. Winnipeg bigger/faster/heavier/meaner/deeper more talented upfront, better in net. Calgary has edge on blue line that's how I see it. Winnipeg has a higher overall ceiling, but I believe last year Calgary was lightning in a bottle exposed in playoffs and doublely confirmed this season.
- Puck Possession

Yet the Flames were ahead of the Jets both seasons

Flames are also at over 100 point pace since firing Peters in November...they had a terrible start but have been a top team standings wise since.

also, they need to re-seed after the play in...Calgary has to play St. Louis even if say 12th place Chicago (lets hope) advances

Calgary who was in a divisional playoff spot has to win a play in and then play the top see in the conference if they get there. Meanwhile dead and buried Chicago gets Edmonton and then potentially Dallas

also, they need to re-seed after the play in...Calgary has to play St. Louis even if say 12th place Chicago (lets hope) advances

Calgary who was in a divisional playoff spot has to win a play in and then play the top see in the conference if they get there. Meanwhile dead and buried Chicago gets Edmonton and then potentially Dallas
- flashfire

Assuming they're doing it by pts% as is being suggested, Calgary is in the right spot as far as facing St Louis in the 1st round. It's mighty close between them and Vancouver, but the Canucks have the edge. I'm sure that sucks but that difference is pretty much the same as the one that's forcing Edmonton to have to play in rather than being in Dallas' spot as the 4th best record.

That's just how it is.

Assuming they're doing it by pts% as is being suggested, Calgary is in the right spot as far as facing St Louis in the 1st round. It's mighty close between them and Vancouver, but the Canucks have the edge. I'm sure that sucks but that difference is pretty much the same as the one that's forcing Edmonton to have to play in rather than being in Dallas' spot as the 4th best record.

That's just how it is.
- MaximumBone

Points percentage isn't ideal but acceptable under the circumstances I guess

The issue is with the play in series as its laid out here...they need to re-seed before the regular playoffs start. Should Chicago for example advance they shouldn't get an easier match up than a legitimate playoff team.

Calgary is in the right spot facing St. Louis but a team in 12th should face the 4th seed? If the play in is equivalent to finishing the season they should re-seed after. Same in the East with Montreal potentially getting the 4th seed in the playoffs because they won two (frank)ing games in July.

As a Flames fan I would rather be in 12 place right now which shouldn't be the case

Points percentage isn't ideal but acceptable under the circumstances I guess

The issue is with the play in series as its laid out here...they need to re-seed before the regular playoffs start. Should Chicago for example advance they shouldn't get an easier match up than a legitimate playoff team.

Calgary is in the right spot facing St. Louis but a team in 12th should face the 4th seed? If the play in is equivalent to finishing the season they should re-seed after. Same in the East with Montreal potentially getting the 4th seed in the playoffs because they won two (frank)ing games in July.

As a Flames fan I would rather be in 12 place right now which shouldn't be the case
- flashfire

I can somewhat agree, but then I could also argue that Chicago just hypothetically beat what would've been the 5th seed (or 2nd seed in the Pacific division) so there's an argument to suggest they earned an easier 1st round opponent. I think the case you lay out for reseeding is stronger, though.

Yet the Flames were ahead of the Jets both seasons

Flames are also at over 100 point pace since firing Peters in November...they had a terrible start but have been a top team standings wise since.
- flashfire

I would say the Central is a little more competetive than the Pacific.

That's not how hockey works but ok

Todd,

According to the fancy numbers who should take the series?

I would have to say Winnipeg. All Winnipeg has to do is be physical with SM and JG and Calgary is down to one line that can score.
- DuranDuran

Fancy numbers say Calgary would absolutely curb stomp the Jets, likely in 4 straight, with Hellebuyck posting a .970

i'll take the team with the better gf ga and goaltending. easily Winnipeg. not to mention an over 20 goal difference in goals for and against. -10 goal differential is not very good for a playoff team.