Ryan Wilson: Matt Murray or Tristan Jarry? Good luck trying to figure it out Matt Murray or Tristan Jarry? Good luck trying to figure it out

[quote=Ryan_Wilson]Ryan Wilson: Matt Murray or Tristan Jarry? Good luck trying to figure it out
Matt Murray or Tristan Jarry? Good luck trying to figure it out
- bosman[/quote
murray 28 playoff wins 19 losses 2 cups 921 svp
price 25 wins 31 losses 0 cups[ 914 svp

I think you start Murray but the leash is shorter than it would be since its BO5

Jerry is going to Detroit.

Jerry is going to Detroit.
- Tee56

Jarry is the future... Murray is going to be traded.

The blog was going good and jinx free until the very last sentence...

Jarry is the future... Murray is going to be traded.
- hipcheck_goalie

I agree. I said this previously, but I believe even if Murray leads them to another cup that he's a gonner and given what's likely to happen with the cap I think it makes things even more certain.

If the cap goes down I think you can guarantee the following:

1) Murray is traded
2) Bjugstad is traded
3) They attempt to move JJ and possibly break their self-imposed rule of not buying players out if they can't move him. If they can move him while retaining half of his salary and not having to give up a high pick or prospect then it would be a win.
4) Schultz walks (which I think happens regardless)

I think you start Murray but the leash is shorter than it would be since its BO5
- Murphy_Dump

Agree and the fact he pulled Fleury after one bad game last Cup run gives me hope he'd do it again and not wait too long if the situation called for it. Then again, the argument could be made Sully did that because of how much confidence he has in Murray, which too much of that would be bad here. He has benched Murray for stretches the last couple regular seasons though.

Good blog. Agree about monitoring practice more than usual to see who is sharp, been saying that. Goalie might be hardest to shake off rust so whoever can do that quicker should get the net IMO.

Also a good point that neither goalie was great the last 2 months and that should be a concern. We don't win that last Cup without Fleury playing possibly his best hockey ever in the first 2 rounds that year and Holtby being leaky.

I agree. I said this previously, but I believe even if Murray leads them to another cup that he's a gonner and given what's likely to happen with the cap I think it makes things even more certain.

If the cap goes down I think you can guarantee the following:

1) Murray is traded
2) Bjugstad is traded
3) They attempt to move JJ and possibly break their self-imposed rule of not buying players out if they can't move him. If they can move him while retaining half of his salary and not having to give up a high pick or prospect then it would be a win.
4) Schultz walks (which I think happens regardless)
- Rinosaur

I'd probably do everything you said so I don't disagree with any of it, but I'm not sure the Pens will.

1) is likely, although if he plays unreal and leads them deep that might get revisited.

2) They should try, I just worry with a smaller cap they might have trouble finding a taker.

3) I'll believe it when I see it. They like him, but a cap crunch could force their hand, especially if they can't move Bjugstad.

4) Hard to see Schultz back unless his market collapses. They do need to sign someone since they don't have a replacement RHD and they might bring him back if he's cheaper than expected though I wouldn't.

I'd probably do everything you said so I don't disagree with any of it, but I'm not sure the Pens will.

1) is likely, although if he plays unreal and leads them deep that might get revisited.

2) They should try, I just worry with a smaller cap they might have trouble finding a taker.

3) I'll believe it when I see it. They like him, but a cap crunch could force their hand, especially if they can't move Bjugstad.

4) Hard to see Schultz back unless his market collapses. They do need to sign someone since they don't have a replacement RHD and they might bring him back if he's cheaper than expected though I wouldn't.
- Tojo.

There's one major caveat to all of this and that's if we see a lot of FAs take a one-year bridge deal because of the cap situation and wait to cash in when things normalize for the 21/22 season. It's probably the wisest move for many of them.

If that's the case, I could see a small bump for Murray, maybe to $4/$4.5M for one year and around $2M for Jarry.

I think it's a 100% certainty that one of Bjugstad or Johnson are gone. It's just a matter of how they go about doing that, i.e. buyout, retaining, etc...

Agree and the fact he pulled Fleury after one bad game last Cup run gives me hope he'd do it again and not wait too long if the situation called for it. Then again, the argument could be made Sully did that because of how much confidence he has in Murray, which too much of that would be bad here. He has benched Murray for stretches the last couple regular seasons though.

Good blog. Agree about monitoring practice more than usual to see who is sharp, been saying that. Goalie might be hardest to shake off rust so whoever can do that quicker should get the net IMO.

Also a good point that neither goalie was great the last 2 months and that should be a concern. We don't win that last Cup without Fleury playing possibly his best hockey ever in the first 2 rounds that year and Holtby being leaky.
- Tojo.

I wish RW would have included some type of timeline bar graph showing the injuries to the defensemen because that had to have been a factor. Many tend to judge goalies solely on the numbers, but I think the defense in front of them plays a HUGE role in their performance. I guess you could also look at HDSC trends over the season as well.

I'd probably do everything you said so I don't disagree with any of it, but I'm not sure the Pens will.

1) is likely, although if he plays unreal and leads them deep that might get revisited.

2) They should try, I just worry with a smaller cap they might have trouble finding a taker.

3) I'll believe it when I see it. They like him, but a cap crunch could force their hand, especially if they can't move Bjugstad.

4) Hard to see Schultz back unless his market collapses. They do need to sign someone since they don't have a replacement RHD and they might bring him back if he's cheaper than expected though I wouldn't.
- Tojo.

We've got Letang and Marino in the top 4, so I'm not worried at all. In fact, given our recent discussion of JJ and Hunwick (and Scuderi), I hope JR doesn't go bargain bin shopping and then overpay for a 3RD. I am frightened at the prospect. Just stick Ruh in there until something good falls in our laps (maybe not as epic as Marino, but good enough). We definitely need to start developing some RDs, though.

I like healthy competition between the two.

Start Murray but if he is a giant bucket of suck insert Jarry.

It's the way of hockey, ride the hot goalie.

Hopefully one emerges.

I would hope if the cap goes down, and revenue is hard to come by, they find a way to be flexible with the cap. The PA and owners will have to look at a temp 1 season fix to the rules. Like "you can be above the cap without penalty but you can't sign any new players unless you're under the cap".

Obviously THAT wouldn't work (PA would never agree to destroying free agency) but they're got to be more creative than the rules they currently have. Many other industries are having to flex.

There's one major caveat to all of this and that's if we see a lot of FAs take a one-year bridge deal because of the cap situation and wait to cash in when things normalize for the 21/22 season. It's probably the wisest move for many of them.

If that's the case, I could see a small bump for Murray, maybe to $4/$4.5M for one year and around $2M for Jarry.

I think it's a 100% certainty that one of Bjugstad or Johnson are gone. It's just a matter of how they go about doing that, i.e. buyout, retaining, etc...
- Rinosaur

That might really make sense for Murray. It's a bad year to try to cash in with a collapsed cap and a few good goalies already on the market potentially in Holtby, Lehner, Markstrom. Even Crawford still looks good short term.

I can agree on Bjugstad or JJ. I think they'd choose Bjugstad, but both will be tough to move.

I wish RW would have included some type of timeline bar graph showing the injuries to the defensemen because that had to have been a factor. Many tend to judge goalies solely on the numbers, but I think the defense in front of them plays a HUGE role in their performance. I guess you could also look at HDSC trends over the season as well.
- Hockey66

Some of the info is in the article. First half of the year Jarry was world's better. From early January on, Jarry had a .900 save percentage and Murray .903. Granted that's just one stat, but others show they both played below average in front of the same team for the last 2 months.

I would hope if the cap goes down, and revenue is hard to come by, they find a way to be flexible with the cap. The PA and owners will have to look at a temp 1 season fix to the rules. Like "you can be above the cap without penalty but you can't sign any new players unless you're under the cap".

Obviously THAT wouldn't work (PA would never agree to destroying free agency) but they're got to be more creative than the rules they currently have. Many other industries are having to flex.
- coohill

That wouldn’t destroy free agency. That would create a soft cap like they have in the NBA, which opens doors to making it actually advantageous for teams to overpay players and give out inflated contracts in certain situations. The PA should love an NBA-style soft cap.

We've got Letang and Marino in the top 4, so I'm not worried at all. In fact, given our recent discussion of JJ and Hunwick (and Scuderi), I hope JR doesn't go bargain bin shopping and then overpay for a 3RD. I am frightened at the prospect. Just stick Ruh in there until something good falls in our laps (maybe not as epic as Marino, but good enough). We definitely need to start developing some RDs, though.
- Hockey66

We'd be looking at Ruhwedel and JJ as a potential 3rd pair and they stink together. And we'd be one injury to Letang or Marino away from Pettersson-Ruhwedel as a second pair and JJ-Trotman as the 3rd pair. I'd like to add someone.

What I'd try to do is find a bargain in free agency who gets squeezed by the cap, like how Tampa got Shattenkirk cheap. GMJR rarely waits out the market though.

I would hope if the cap goes down, and revenue is hard to come by, they find a way to be flexible with the cap. The PA and owners will have to look at a temp 1 season fix to the rules. Like "you can be above the cap without penalty but you can't sign any new players unless you're under the cap".

Obviously THAT wouldn't work (PA would never agree to destroying free agency) but they're got to be more creative than the rules they currently have. Many other industries are having to flex.
- coohill

Compliance buyouts have been thrown around as a potential answer again. Of course while it clears up the cap, it's still dead money for the owners who just lost a lot with the pandemic.

Compliance buyouts have been thrown around as a potential answer again. Of course while it clears up the cap, it's still dead money for the owners who just lost a lot with the pandemic.
- Tojo.

And also our specific organization wouldn’t use it out of principle so it’d be worthless to us.

Some of the info is in the article. First half of the year Jarry was world's better. From early January on, Jarry had a .900 save percentage and Murray .903. Granted that's just one stat, but others show they both played below average in front of the same team for the last 2 months.
- Tojo.

Right, but as I recall, at least 2 of the top 4 were out during that time, so although they might have sucked equally, I don't put as much stock into their numbers given the injury situation on defense.

We'd be looking at Ruhwedel and JJ as a potential 3rd pair and they stink together. And we'd be one injury to Letang or Marino away from Pettersson-Ruhwedel as a second pair and JJ-Trotman as the 3rd pair. I'd like to add someone.

What I'd try to do is find a bargain in free agency who gets squeezed by the cap, like how Tampa got Shattenkirk cheap. GMJR rarely waits out the market though.
- Tojo.

Or dump JJ and have Riikola and Ruh to start the season, and maybe POJ emerges.

I think we're essentially saying the same thing, not wanting JR to jump the gun and overpay for a 3RD on the first day of free agency. The top 4 is solid and while a couple (Letang and Dumo) have a history of injuries, I'm not worried about being able to find someone who is decent on the cheap.

Or dump JJ and have Riikola and Ruh to start the season, and maybe POJ emerges.

I think we're essentially saying the same thing, not wanting JR to jump the gun and overpay for a 3RD on the first day of free agency. The top 4 is solid and while a couple (Letang and Dumo) have a history of injuries, I'm not worried about being able to find someone who is decent on the cheap.
- Hockey66

Yeah we agree on most of it. We'd both dump JJ and give Riikola a shot knowing POJ is probably close to getting his chance. And if neither works, getting a bottom pair LHD in a trade isn't hard.

We agree on not overpaying for a 3rd RHD, I'm not as comfortable with slotting Ruhwedel there though I like him in his current role. I might play him over Schultz, but that's more how I feel about Schultz.

Yeah we agree on most of it. We'd both dump JJ and give Riikola a shot knowing POJ is probably close to getting his chance. And if neither works, getting a bottom pair LHD in a trade isn't hard.

We agree on not overpaying for a 3rd RHD, I'm not as comfortable with slotting Ruhwedel there though I like him in his current role. I might play him over Schultz, but that's more how I feel about Schultz.
- Tojo.

I don't think Ruhwedel is better than Shultz, but he's certainly much better value. And I don't even know about the first part anymore. Schultz has been super bad the past year and a half, injury or no.

Josh Yohe interviewed Sullivan last week and he feels that it will be Murray for Game 1.