Theo Fox: Go Big or Go Home?
A look at the Blackhawks drafting for size in recent years and whether that is a worthwhile strategy in the upcoming NHL draft.

First

ADB for Tuch straight up. Get it done Stan lol

Benning, the Vancouver GM is said to be looking to remake his defense because Dallas was successful in stopping Vegas by playing in your face defense as opposed to packing it in, because his defenseman were not physically able to handle the Vegas forwards one on one.

What does that mean for the Hawks, when you look at next years roster, and you can only count Koekoeck and Murphy as "big defenseman".

Figuring Matta is all but gone by buy-out or trade.

History suggests that the Hawks should continue to have size as a low priority.

However, for playoff success, they’ll need some physical blueliners. That can usually be addressed at the deadline.

BPA all the way!

History suggests that the Hawks should continue to have size as a low priority.

However, for playoff success, they’ll need some physical blueliners. That can usually be addressed at the deadline.

BPA all the way!
- KilkennyDan

You aren't going to pick up a Heiskenin, Lundell, Klingberg at the trade deadline.

I'm not so worried about bangers...I'm like you, Theo...it's more about compete level. But what does worry me is the physical toll smaller players take in the playoffs. Kane is so shifty and quick, he doesn't get hit all that often. But, he's elite. I worry about guys like ADB getting crushed by the likes of Lucic or Oleksiak or Ovechkin.

A bit of a different direction here.

Theo said: Trends from 2008-2019:

* Of the exactly 100 players drafted in the past 12 years, 58 were “big” players while 42 were “small” players.
* Of the 58 “big” players, 10 (17.2%) made it to the NHL; moving Smith and Nordstrom over to the “small” group decreases this statistic down to 13.8%.
* Of the 42 “small” players, 17 (40.5%) made it to the NHL; adding in Smith and Nordstrom increases this statistic up to 45.2%.

I ask:

The Hawks, then, have had 27 out of 100 players selected in the last 12 drafts make it to the Show - obviously, 27%.

Is this good? How does it stack up against other teams?

I think hockey-reference.com kind of shows this information - I may try to look into it later (I do have a life other than hockey, as pathetic as it may be) - just wanted to kind of ask.

Benning, the Vancouver GM is said to be looking to remake his defense because Dallas was successful in stopping Vegas by playing in your face defense as opposed to packing it in, because his defenseman were not physically able to handle the Vegas forwards one on one.

What does that mean for the Hawks, when you look at next years roster, and you can only count Koekoeck and Murphy as "big defenseman".

Figuring Matta is all but gone by buy-out or trade.
- LAHawk

That's kind of reductive to predicate your offseason goals by your performance against one team. Also, are there any other means to address the deficiency see against that team?

Benning, the Vancouver GM is said to be looking to remake his defense because Dallas was successful in stopping Vegas by playing in your face defense as opposed to packing it in, because his defenseman were not physically able to handle the Vegas forwards one on one.

What does that mean for the Hawks, when you look at next years roster, and you can only count Koekoeck and Murphy as "big defenseman".

Figuring Matta is all but gone by buy-out or trade.
- LAHawk

...and, oh yeah, you forgot about Seabrook!

From ‘The Athletic’s’ latest mock draft. BTW, they have the Russian goalie going to Carolina at 13.

The Chicago Blackhawks select:

17. Chicago: Dawson Mercer, C, Chicoutimi-QMJHL

Scott Powers: Rodion Amirov may have the highest ceiling of the remaining players, but I’m not sure the Blackhawks are willing to be that patient for this draft pick’s NHL arrival. There’s a lot to like about Mercer anyway. He has elite hands and vision. He’s going to carry the puck into the zone and create offensive opportunities. He’s also solid enough defensively and possesses enough size. He can be ready in a few years to be in the Blackhawks’ lineup, likely as a winger, and complement the skilled forwards they already have in place.

All this tells me is they need better scouts

From ‘The Athletic’s’ latest mock draft. BTW, they have the Russian goalie going to Carolina at 13.

The Chicago Blackhawks select:

17. Chicago: Dawson Mercer, C, Chicoutimi-QMJHL

Scott Powers: Rodion Amirov may have the highest ceiling of the remaining players, but I’m not sure the Blackhawks are willing to be that patient for this draft pick’s NHL arrival. There’s a lot to like about Mercer anyway. He has elite hands and vision. He’s going to carry the puck into the zone and create offensive opportunities. He’s also solid enough defensively and possesses enough size. He can be ready in a few years to be in the Blackhawks’ lineup, likely as a winger, and complement the skilled forwards they already have in place.
- scottak

Say hello to Corey Pronman's influence in Power's choices....

Last night, I thought, "Hey, the hockey News hasn't been coming in the mail and I know I still have a subscription, so I called, asking where my Draft issue was. (Not that I have ever bought into Ryan Kennedy's lists...lioke everyone else, my head thinks they are wrong, but I like to look at what they "thin" to balance my unbalanced thoughts, after I have formed opinions.

The told me that with Covid-19 they stopped printing paper issues but where about to go back to printing them, and gave me the link to viewing the Draft Issue (hat has been there since MAY 2020!).

It did follow form and in my eyes was very incorrect...but the players in the 3rd round sorta lined up with ones I had int the hawk range.

I suggest you go to the DraftSite NHL mock and click on a team an see the possible wants I stated there, as I have pounded my head on where Yaroslav Askarov could go from high to dropping to slot #17...each possible team.

The thing that is difficult is balancing NHL TEAM "NOW" NEEDS with kids that are not gonna be there now, like Askarov. Anybody here think Askarov will play for the 'canes in two years?
So that is the rub. (I too have him in slot 13, but...)

I havven't gone through that Power's draft list if it is new.

I just know in my head Mercer is gone earlier than we pick...

Thanks for the write up Theo.

Unless you analyze the entire draft, you don't know if "small" players are better than "big" or whether Chicago is bad at drafting big players. I would also do an 80% rule, lop off the bottom 10% of the small players, and top 10% of the big players. In other words, eliminate the biggest of the big, probably not mobile enough for the NHL, and smallest of the small which gets trickier with the small because 150 pound player probably has less chance than a 5'7" player who weighs 180?

We got Terrivainen because teams passed on his size. Nordstrom was always good for us 4th line. Stan built some pretty good 4th lines over the years by trade as well as draft. I'm not sure which years it was but the Desjardan line always seemed to tip the ice in our favor.

Overall, I think 6'2" 220 pounds is a sweet spot for size, Forward or Defense, we could use a few guys that size regardless what the odds say. Did we not draft Bufgylien?

Say hello to Corey Pronman's influence in Power's choices....

Last night, I thought, "Hey, the hockey News hasn't been coming in the mail and I know I still have a subscription, so I called, asking where my Draft issue was. (Not that I have ever bought into Ryan Kennedy's lists...lioke everyone else, my head thinks they are wrong, but I like to look at what they "thin" to balance my unbalanced thoughts, after I have formed opinions.

The told me that with Covid-19 they stopped printing paper issues but where about to go back to printing them, and gave me the link to viewing the Draft Issue (hat has been there since MAY 2020!).

It did follow form and in my eyes was very incorrect...but the players in the 3rd round sorta lined up with ones I had int the hawk range.

I suggest you go to the DraftSite NHL mock and click on a team an see the possible wants I stated there, as I have pounded my head on where Yaroslav Askarov could go from high to dropping to slot #17...each possible team.

The thing that is difficult is balancing NHL TEAM "NOW" NEEDS with kids that are not gonna be there now, like Askarov. Anybody here think Askarov will play for the 'canes in two years?
So that is the rub. (I too have him in slot 13, but...)

I havven't gone through that Power's draft list if it is new.

I just know in my head Mercer is gone earlier than we pick...
- wiz1901

I was just going to post this link and ask for your opinion. I would be thrilled if Mercer drops all the way to 17, and think Bowman would run to the podium (virtually) to pick him!
Wiz, have you heard anything about Barron's blood clot issues. In my head, I know he'll be gone, but I'm still holding out hope that he falls to us with our second round pick.

Theo, you can add my name to the persons congratulating you on a blog.

I love the way you stated and compared BIG with small.

To really strike oil with big, you have to draft low and the draft has to have a few big men that are fairly complete.
Zach's are a rare commodity when you have to add the toolbox, feet and head to the size.
As an example, Graham Knott type picks are ones made, when you know what you need, what you wish happens with the kid's progress and is doesn't.

A team like the Flyers, whose past is tied to "big" goes and draftsJoel Farabee...why?
Because he is mentally tough, made his USNDteam linemates better (liver Wahlstrom)
and they recognize a list of positives and say, "Can he play with the big boys?"

I think "big" comes to teams whose later picks where the guys they took simply get better and when their size no longer impedes their thinking and traction, you get a quality NHL defender or forward with time..sometimes.

I just think given the size of so any quality performers in the playoffs and on the teems in the final, the aspect of size is nice to have but not were thetas begin in their search for players.

If I wanted the Hawks to have a defender drop, it would have to be Kaden Guhle. Maybe I just jinxed that....

(Sounding like I am one of your parents) I will just say this one last time:

When you select 17th, what should your organizational goal be?

To simply add a solid, 'safe" kid who makes your team at some point, or

do you look at the available and start saying,

"He gives us a possible scorer..."

"He gives us size and some upside."

He add size to our defenseman stable."

He has REALLY high upside to be here at 17, we shouldn't even think about t and get to the virtual microphone..."

I think that getting an NHLer is now becoming more important than attempting to project guys past hat there are already...

Playing physical winning board battles going to the front net creating havoc in the offensive zone is not about size and how big your asa player but more about the willingness heart and character to do what ever is needed to win. High compete level players are what the hawks are lacking. Size and heaviness helps but does not help if you are 6 4 220lb and play like a 5 6 160lb midget who is allergic to contact.

Wiz, have you heard anything about Barron's blood clot issues. In my head, I know he'll be gone, but I'm still holding out hope that he falls to us with our second round pick.
- tvetter

Making me work today, right when I was going for my first of two swims on the day.

I thought they put him on blood thinners and came back to ahlfixa line up and was still going to take them until the clot was completely gone...they found the clot in like late November I think, offhand.he could not have physical hockey contact during the medicine or when he hd the clot, but was NOT that he had a specific gene that makes him more susceptible to clotting and blood issue.
(This is all stuff I need to add to his profile DraftSite.com)
I just saw the TSN Calgary fans voted they want I'm to be the lames pick at #19...

But my reasoning for having him where I do n my board is more based on that fact he is more of a stay at home player, but not a shutdown player, and it is going to be a specific need pick with the team doing interviews that are going to have to say, he isn't a guy who is gonna add to our attack, and ytoiu know the questions about the medical condition are going to be brought up until he is an NHL stalwart, because the media seems to never forget past issues on prospects, and I know I do too,lol!

Playing physical winning board battles going to the front net creating havoc in the offensive zone is not about size and how big your asa player but more about the willingness heart and character to do what ever is needed to win. High compete level players are what the hawks are lacking. Size and heaviness helps but does not help if you are 6 4 220lb and play like a 5 6 160lb midget who is allergic to contact.
- Scott1977

CORRECT

Gourde

Point

Pavelski

CORRECT

Gourde

Point

Pavelski
- wiz1901

But I think we all liked what we saw in Minnesota Wild drafted Golden Knight Alex Tuch...and how his straight line jump, shot, and willingness made uswonder why "we don't have one."

But Tampa still went out and got Coleman and Goodrow because they played too small. Arguably Tampa does not get as far as they did this year without those 2.

Ek's recent post about RFA's that might be offer sheeted:

Meanwhile in Chicago, Dylan Strome, who became the NHLer he was projected to be this season, is another RFA that is turning some heads...

While the description was "interesting", if true, take the picks or whatever compensation. I still think they could package him in a decent trade (he has produced at a 0.77 PPG pace with the Hawks). I just don't like him. There, I said it.

But Tampa still went out and got Coleman and Goodrow because they played too small. Arguably Tampa does not get as far as they did this year without those 2.
- LAHawk

Agreed.

they got a third line that also acts like a attacking and checkin g line and poses a problem with match-ups...

Benning, the Vancouver GM is said to be looking to remake his defense because Dallas was successful in stopping Vegas by playing in your face defense as opposed to packing it in, because his defenseman were not physically able to handle the Vegas forwards one on one.

What does that mean for the Hawks, when you look at next years roster, and you can only count Koekoeck and Murphy as "big defenseman".

Figuring Matta is all but gone by buy-out or trade.
- LAHawk

There's more than one way to skin a cat. Physical players is one way.

Another way is having players who compete and defend well all without being intimidated. Fearlessness is something that can amp up compete level.

IMO, part of why Vegas is so effective is that they do what they can to intimidate the opponent. Play heavy and chirp the heck out of the other team. When you're intimidated, you eliminate yourself from the play.

The Blackhawks showed they can rise above by playing through the Kesler Theory of "no human can withstand that many hits."