Kevin Francis: When will Ottawa get Brady Tkachuk signed to a new contract?!

Brady is a unique asset. He will likely always be worth more than his mere production numbers...but never as much as the perceived fan value that he is able to generate.

Remember, when it comes to contract negotiations, it is just business.

I know it is a minority opinion, on my part, but a 2 or 3 year bridge contract could be very effective. An asset is an asset. If you are unable to do a long term deal at the right price, go with the deal that offers the best option to maximize and leverage his trade value 2 or 3 years out.

Brady is a unique asset. He will likely always be worth more than his mere production numbers...but never as much as the perceived fan value that he is able to generate.

Remember, when it comes to contract negotiations, it is just business.

I know it is a minority opinion, on my part, but a 2 or 3 year bridge contract could be very effective. An asset is an asset. If you are unable to do a long term deal at the right price, go with the deal that offers the best option to maximize and leverage his trade value 2 or 3 years out.
- spatso

I'd rather a shorter term deal too. It's hard to imagine his style of play will last for throughout his career. Would much rather have an evaluation opportunity in 3 years.

However, negotiations will always be had. Wouldn't be surprised if they are trying to max on value now.

As much as I want Tkachuk signed long-term, I don't want to sign him at all costs. Tkachuk is a great, solid, charismatic player but he is also a 50 point player. I would like to see an 8 year contract that starts at $6 million/year to gradually increase up to $8-8.5 million. He is no Ovie, Benn or Panarin.

Tkachuk brothers conspiring to both make it back home to play together.

If he does get traded it means we are bringing in a truly elite player in return, him in a package with a 1st, Abramov and Colin White for a player like E Petersson who we can lock in long term.

I think you are all underestimating this kid and how much the team/coach values him, equating smaller size with coach displeasure when the numbers don`t back up your arguments. His ice time increased, a lot, at the end of the season as the team got hot, increasing from 15 to 18 minutes/game in Jan/Feb up to 22 to 24 minutes per game in games for April to May as they started winning more regularly. He was a + player and drove offensive zone possession when on the ice. A 21 year old will make bad or rookie plays occasionally, but as the year progressed he became MORE trusted by DJ Smith, not less.

Not sure where the lines of evidence for how he`s in the dog house come from, especially considering Brannstrom has said, and shown, he enjoys and is more comfortable playing on his off-stick side than on the left-side of the blue line, where all the other D-men acquired play better.
- ahjnkn

Carrying this over from the last blog.

My understanding is that it was the team that was more apprehensive about playing on the right side, as opposed to him. Although if the team is willing to let him play on the right side, the "problem" fixes itself. Perhaps they brought in these LHD because they plan to let him switch.

Chabot JBD
Sanderson Brannstrom

Could be amazing.

If the team is less willing to let him play on the right, then we get into a log jam situation. Where they may be better suited to trade him. Thats when a showcase of his talent may be the best decision for part of the year.

I'd rather a shorter term deal too. It's hard to imagine his style of play will last for throughout his career. Would much rather have an evaluation opportunity in 3 years.

However, negotiations will always be had. Wouldn't be surprised if they are trying to max on value now.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

GL with that. He'll sign when his old man tells him to go ahead. We know as we've seen the game plan before. Dont expect anything until last minute & Brady misses a good part of training camp.

Overpaying for intangibles is a bad business... especially for a small market team, where cents seem to matter as much as dollars. Nobody dislikes Tkachuk, but he simply has NOT shown that he's more than a 25G-25A guy. Of your list of supposed comparable players, only Laine, Tkachuk, and Connor are actually comparable as RFA signings, and of those Laine and Connor each had multiple 30G seasons during their ELC years... not to mention that both Laine and Tkachuk are examples of where over-investment could have been a mistake. Given their lack of progression (or decline), I doubt very much that WPG and CGY are regretting those bridge deals.

For me, if Tkachuk wants his $8M deal, he's going to need to prove he can at least hit the 30G-60Pts mark at least once. Give him a 2yr deal to prove his offensive upside, then make your long-term contract signing. He'll still just be 23yo, and will be worth a 7yr/8yr deal - but you'll have a much better sense of his real upside, and not just paying top dollar for hopes and good vibes.

GL with that. He'll sign when his old man tells him to go ahead. We know as we've seen the game plan before. Dont expect anything until last minute & Brady misses a good part of training camp.
- Kevin R

Not sure what is funny about the post?

Brady hasn't show he is a point per game player, but we are assuming he is going to get that money because h hits and is a pest? It's a fair take to be weary of a max deal. I acknowledge it will likely happen but the Sens are not locking up a Crosby or McDavid here.

Overpaying for intangibles is a bad business... especially for a small market team, where cents seem to matter as much as dollars. Nobody dislikes Tkachuk, but he simply has NOT shown that he's more than a 25G-25A guy. Of your list of supposed comparable players, only Laine, Tkachuk, and Connor are actually comparable as RFA signings, and of those Laine and Connor each had multiple 30G seasons during their ELC years... not to mention that both Laine and Tkachuk are examples of where over-investment could have been a mistake. Given their lack of progression (or decline), I doubt very much that WPG and CGY are regretting those bridge deals.

For me, if Tkachuk wants his $8M deal, he's going to need to prove he can at least hit the 30G-60Pts mark at least once. Give him a 2yr deal to prove his offensive upside, then make your long-term contract signing. He'll still just be 23yo, and will be worth a 7yr/8yr deal - but you'll have a much better sense of his real upside, and not just paying top dollar for hopes and good vibes.
- khawk

His old man is guiding this negotiation & he is one smart hombre. He also knows how tight on purse strings Melnyk is & dangle this carrot, 3 year bridge, 1st year will be like 3.0 mill, 2nd year 5.0 mill & 3rd year base 9.0 mill & signing bonus 5.0 mill so he has a slightly higher cap hit of 7.33 mill per. That way he scorches that next qualifying off up to 9.0 mill just like they did with Matty.
Yeah I know Brady is different & just loves Ottawa & would never do this right. They'll play chicken with Dorian right up to the start of the season.

Not sure what is funny about the post?

Brady hasn't show he is a point per game player, but we are assuming he is going to get that money because h hits and is a pest? It's a fair take to be weary of a max deal. I acknowledge it will likely happen but the Sens are not locking up a Crosby or McDavid here.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

Sorry Gord replied to the wrong post

His old man is guiding this negotiation & he is one smart hombre. He also knows how tight on purse strings Melnyk is & dangle this carrot, 3 year bridge, 1st year will be like 3.0 mill, 2nd year 5.0 mill & 3rd year base 9.0 mill & signing bonus 5.0 mill so he has a slightly higher cap hit of 7.33 mill per. That way he scorches that next qualifying off up to 9.0 mill just like they did with Matty.
Yeah I know Brady is different & just loves Ottawa & would never do this right. They'll play chicken with Dorian right up to the start of the season.
- Kevin R

An asset is an asset. Brady might've more value today than at any time over the rest of his career. Merely, as a matter of curiosity, it might be intriguing to wonder what kind of return he might bring.

Teams need to be ruthless in managing their assets. Never personal. But, at some point, the ask may be too great. Selling an asset at the top is the goal of all traders.

Brady hasn't show he is a point per game player, but we are assuming he is going to get that money because h hits and is a pest? It's a fair take to be weary of a max deal. I acknowledge it will likely happen but the Sens are not locking up a Crosby or McDavid here.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

Landeskog is maybe the best comparable I can think of for Tkachuk, and he had a $5.5Mx7yr RFA deal after having far more productive ELC years. I know that was quite a few years back, but at most that translates to a $6.5-$7.0M AAV long-term deal, minus the consideration of Tkachuk's lower scoring production. Regardless, I agree that the Tkachuk family is not know for their sympathy for internal small-market budgets, and something akin to Matthew's contract seems the most likely outcome.

Again, I'm not even sure that's a bad thing. I would have thought the Colin White deal would make the Senators think twice about gambling with long-term deals for players with uncertain upside. Chabot made sense because even if he does prove to be slightly overpaid, he's still part of the team's top-4D bedrock playing 25min/GP, and by far the best D-man on the current roster. By comparison, it's unclear to say that Tkachuk is even the best LW on the team heading into the season, given what a 19yo Stutzle might be capable of. It's not even impossible to suggest that the Tkachuk contract issue could have played into the decision to draft Boucher - who may lack Tkachuk's pedigree and upside, but may be a more viable long-term asset for a small-market team like Ottawa.

Tkachuk brothers conspiring to both make it back home to play together.
- Gerk

Your team doesn't have the assets to acquire one of them, let alone both of them.

Landeskog is maybe the best comparable I can think of for Tkachuk, and he had a $5.5Mx7yr RFA deal after having far more productive ELC years. I know that was quite a few years back, but at most that translates to a $6.5-$7.0M AAV long-term deal, minus the consideration of Tkachuk's lower scoring production. Regardless, I agree that the Tkachuk family is not know for their sympathy for internal small-market budgets, and something akin to Matthew's contract seems the most likely outcome.

Again, I'm not even sure that's a bad thing. I would have thought the Colin White deal would make the Senators think twice about gambling with long-term deals for players with uncertain upside. Chabot made sense because even if he does prove to be slightly overpaid, he's still part of the team's top-4D bedrock playing 25min/GP, and by far the best D-man on the current roster. By comparison, it's unclear to say that Tkachuk is even the best LW on the team heading into the season, given what a 19yo Stutzle might be capable of. It's not even impossible to suggest that the Tkachuk contract issue could have played into the decision to draft Boucher - who may lack Tkachuk's pedigree and upside, but may be a more viable long-term asset for a small-market team like Ottawa.
- khawk

I don't worry much about the small market issue. But Ottawa has a transitional challenge. We have an owner that is not a heavy hitter. He desperately needs to keep the Sens profitable because he is incapable of floating any budgetary pressures. Two summers ago Mrs. Spatso and I went to a Michael Buble concert at the Canadian Tire Centre and I was sure I saw Eugene personally manning a parking booth and collecting the $20 fees.

But, Ottawa is an incredibly wealthy community with very deep pockets. I don't have any doubt Bettman knows who the next owner will be. We just need to be patient.

Your team doesn't have the assets to acquire one of them, let alone both of them.
- GPHawksfan

Not now longer term when both are FA.

7 years, 7.7M AAV with a backloaded contract structure, with a handshake agreement on the captaincy.

7-7-7!!!

Thanks for the blog Kevin. Your hard work and dedication is appreciated as its great to have regular new content.

7 years, 7.7M AAV with a backloaded contract structure, with a handshake agreement on the captaincy.

7-7-7!!!
- ahjnkn

My predictions:
$22M for 3 years - $7.33M AAV
$51M for 6 years - $8.5M AAV

Carrying this over from the last blog.

My understanding is that it was the team that was more apprehensive about playing on the right side, as opposed to him. Although if the team is willing to let him play on the right side, the "problem" fixes itself. Perhaps they brought in these LHD because they plan to let him switch.

Chabot JBD
Sanderson Brannstrom

Could be amazing.

If the team is less willing to let him play on the right, then we get into a log jam situation. Where they may be better suited to trade him. Thats when a showcase of his talent may be the best decision for part of the year.
- david22

I agree, I just think it`s mindless to trade a 21 year old who is already a legit top 6 defender in the NHL right before he breaks out, which he will by the end of next season after getting past the 100 NHL games mark (where players really start to come into their own as pros)...at age 21...for a d-man...only other d-men who played 100 games by age 21 for OTT were Karlsson, Chabot and Wade Redden. They all blew through the roof of their breakouts within two years of that.

I think it’s funny everyone talking about point and Tkachuk isn’t worth 8million and mentions other players🤦‍♂️
I say pay Tkachuk 8x8 he is well worth it any NHL team would cough that amount up in a heartbeat
Tkachuk bring far more then offence he’s a pure leader on and off the ice
And no one likes playing against him
Players like him are rare so enough of the well he’s only a 50pt player
Glad you peeps are not this team GM lol 😉
Have a nice day and let the arguments begin 😂😉

I agree, I just think it`s mindless to trade a 21 year old who is already a legit top 6 defender in the NHL right before he breaks out, which he will by the end of next season after getting past the 100 NHL games mark (where players really start to come into their own as pros)...at age 21...for a d-man...only other d-men who played 100 games by age 21 for OTT were Karlsson, Chabot and Wade Redden. They all blew through the roof of their breakouts within two years of that.
- ahjnkn

Brannstrom can generate 40-50 points a season if used right. I'm sorry DJ but he should be an every day player in Ottawa. Put up with some of his defensive weakneses and appreciate what he brings offensively.

Kevin can you take off artem anisimov off the sens roster in the cap central. It's annyoing to see a non current list? It was already stated he won't be back with the team.

As much as I want Tkachuk signed long-term, I don't want to sign him at all costs. Tkachuk is a great, solid, charismatic player but he is also a 50 point player. I would like to see an 8 year contract that starts at $6 million/year to gradually increase up to $8-8.5 million. He is no Ovie, Benn or Panarin.
- thecupisours

Pretty sure Tkachuk has 30 goals, 60+pts in him. If Gallagher can do it, so can he because IMO Tkachuk is a bigger/better version of Gallagher

I think it’s funny everyone talking about point and Tkachuk isn’t worth 8million and mentions other players🤦‍♂️
I say pay Tkachuk 8x8 he is well worth it any NHL team would cough that amount up in a heartbeat
Tkachuk bring far more then offence he’s a pure leader on and off the ice
And no one likes playing against him
Players like him are rare so enough of the well he’s only a 50pt player
Glad you peeps are not this team GM lol 😉
Have a nice day and let the arguments begin 😂😉
- sens4life1971

I don't think anyone would be unhappy if it were to stretch out to something like an 8 x $8m deal or even a bit more. It is the notion that Brady would try to push himself into the Mitch Marner kind of deal. It becomes a killer for everyone. Especially down the road when some of the younger stars step up in a few years and want to get matching or better deals.

Some teams (Boston, Colorado) seem to have some restraint around player salaries as they attempt to build a winner. If your team leader does not set the tone, you end up like the Leafs.